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贸易逆差还被征50%,卢拉誓言反击,巴西资产重挫
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-10 00:37
Core Viewpoint - Trump's decision to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods escalates trade tensions between the U.S. and Brazil, leading to a significant drop in Brazilian assets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Brazilian assets experienced a sharp sell-off, with the Brazilian real falling nearly 3% against the dollar and the largest U.S.-listed ETF tracking Brazilian stocks dropping nearly 2% in after-hours trading [2][3]. - The American Depositary Receipts of Embraer, a key Brazilian exporter to the U.S., plummeted by 9% in after-hours trading [6]. Group 2: Impact on Key Industries - The 50% tariff is expected to severely impact several critical export sectors in Brazil, including steel products, transportation equipment (mainly aircraft and parts), specialized machinery, and non-metallic minerals [6][8]. - Analysts express concerns that these tariffs could render exports unfeasible, indicating a deterioration in the overall institutional relationship between the two countries [6]. Group 3: Political Context - The tariff decision is politically charged, linking it to the judicial proceedings against former Brazilian President Bolsonaro, which Trump claims is a form of political persecution [7]. - The historical partnership between the U.S. and Brazil may be at risk due to this decision, despite differing ideologies of their current leaders [7]. Group 4: Trade Dynamics - The U.S. is Brazil's second-largest trading partner, and the imposition of such high tariffs could have significant repercussions on Brazil's economy, which currently has a trade deficit with the U.S. [8]. - In 2024, Brazil is projected to import approximately $44 billion worth of U.S. products while exporting around $42 billion, contrasting with other countries that have faced similar tariffs [8].
美股三大指数上涨,热门中概股走低,英伟达市值达到4万亿美元
Feng Huang Wang Cai Jing· 2025-07-09 14:52
Group 1: Market Performance - The three major US stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.18%, Nasdaq up 0.60%, and S&P 500 up 0.32% [1] - Chinese concept stocks saw declines, with Kingsoft Cloud down over 4%, and Bilibili, JD.com, Alibaba, and Zhihu down over 3% [1] - Individual stock highlights include Verona Pharma rising over 20% due to Merck agreeing to acquire it for $10 billion, and Nvidia increasing over 2% to become the first company with a market value of $4 trillion [1] Group 2: Company News - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk responded to a warning from a prominent analyst about his political involvement by telling him to "shut up" [5] - Apple COO Jeff Williams will retire at the end of this month, with Tim Cook stating that "without him, there would be no Apple today" [6]
欧盟寻求本月与美国达成贸易协议 特朗普周三将发出更多关税信函
智通财经网· 2025-07-09 13:45
Group 1 - The EU is working to reach a trade agreement with the US by the end of the month, while President Trump plans to announce further tariffs on unspecified countries [1][2] - Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper and plans to implement tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, escalating trade tensions and impacting global economic outlook [1] - The US has seen its effective tariff rate rise to 17.6%, the highest level in nearly 90 years, following Trump's announcement of increased tariffs on imports from 14 countries [3] Group 2 - The US Treasury has reported approximately $100 billion in tariff revenue so far, with an expectation of an additional $300 billion by the end of the year [6] - Historically, the US has generated around $8 billion annually from tariffs, but recent measures have significantly increased this revenue [6] - Despite promises of reaching 90 agreements within 90 days, only two agreements have been made with the UK and Vietnam, with negotiations with India nearing completion [7]
豆粕生猪:成交小幅回暖,连粕震荡反弹
Jin Shi Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 13:33
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 had a technical rebound after reaching the key support level of 2920, but is expected to fluctuate in the bottom range in the short - term. The spot price of soybean meal continued to decline slowly, and the spot trading volume slightly recovered. The basis of soybean meal continued to decline under pressure, and it is difficult to break through the previous low of - 200. The oil mills are facing inventory pressure, and the sales progress of the far - month basis in the fourth quarter is slow [17][18]. - The DCE live hog main contract 2509 declined slightly. In the short - term, the supply of live hogs is tight, leading to a relatively strong price fluctuation. However, in the later period, if the slaughter rhythm recovers, the price increase will slow down. The weak demand in the off - season and the medium - term supply pressure will restrict the upward space of the price [19]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 closed at 2947 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous trading day, and the quotes of coastal oil mills decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main contract 2509 closed at 14265 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from the previous trading day. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs was 14.85 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous day. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract decreased by 0.29% to 1018 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - There will be local to scattered showers in the US Midwest this week, with temperatures close to or higher than normal. Although many areas have basically favorable weather conditions, there are both wet and dry areas in the region [3][4]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - Analysts expect the global 2025/26 soybean ending inventory to be 1.2631 billion tons, with a forecast range of 1.235 - 1.4 billion tons, higher than the USDA's June forecast of 1.253 billion tons [5]. - On July 9, the import cost of US soybeans was 4471 yuan, down 12 yuan from the previous day; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3771 yuan, down 49 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3620 yuan, down 34 yuan [5]. - On July 8, the trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal continued to increase, with the spot trading volume increasing by 65000 tons and the basis trading volume decreasing by 7000 tons. The average trading price was 2860.1 yuan/ton, a 6 - and - a - half - month low [5]. - Analysts expect Brazil's 2024/25 soybean output to be 169.25 million tons and Argentina's to be 49.27 million tons [5]. - Analysts expect the US 2025/26 soybean output to be 4.334 billion bushels, with a yield of 52.5 bushels/acre, and the 2024/25 ending inventory to be 358 million bushels [6]. - As of the week ending July 4, the deliverable inventory of CBOT soybeans was 8.667 million bushels, down 3.15% from the previous week and up 196.92% from the same period last year [6]. - As of June 30, the EU's 2024/25 rapeseed imports were 7.45 million tons and soybean meal imports were 19.39 million tons, higher than last year [6]. - The 2025/26 total supply of soybeans in Mato Grosso is expected to be 48.55 million tons, with an ending inventory of 940,000 tons. The output forecast is 47.18 million tons, down 7.29% from 2024/25 [7]. - As of the week ending July 4, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising live hogs was 119.72 yuan/head, and the loss of purchasing piglets for fattening was 26.26 yuan/head [7]. - In June 2025, the national PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month; the PPIRM decreased by 4.3% year - on - year and 0.7% month - on - month [7]. 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, live hog prices, basis, and Chinese soybean and soybean meal inventories [10][11][14][15]. 5. Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the US soybean futures price is testing the support level of 1000 - 1010 cents. The Brazilian soybean export sales pressure has been relieved, and its premium is expected to be strong. The domestic soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate in the bottom range, and the spot price is slowly decreasing. The oil mills are facing inventory pressure, and the sales of far - month basis contracts are slow [17][18]. - For live hogs, the short - term supply is tight, but the supply pressure still exists in the medium - term. The demand is weak in the off - season. The slaughter rhythm of farmers and the entry of second - fattening hogs are the key factors affecting the short - term market [19].
准备好反制!欧盟官员称特朗普政府没诚意
证券时报· 2025-07-09 12:23
准备好反制! 欧洲议会国际贸易委员会主席贝恩德·朗格当地时间7月9日在比利时布鲁塞尔举行发布会时表示,当前欧 盟与美国的贸易争端仍集中在具体行业的关税领域,特别是钢铁、汽车、铜以及可能涉及的制药产品。 朗格表示,欧盟主要出口药品、汽车和机械设备,因此迫切需要尽快与美方达成一项协议,取得明确的最 终结果和决定。但他同时表示,美方目前尚未承诺降低关税,也没有接受欧方提出的"冻结条款",即在最 终协议出台前不实施新的贸易限制。 据其介绍,欧盟方面已准备好反制措施,第一阶段将于7月14日自动 生效。 朗格认为,当前特朗普政府未表现出足够诚意,传递的更多是"权力的语言"而非"伙伴关系的语言",欧盟 呼吁重建真正的伙伴关系,推动一个尊重多边贸易体系的全球合作格局。 美国总统特朗普当地时间8日表示,将对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的新关税,但没有透露新关税生效 具体时间。 当地时间7月7日,特朗普发信函给日韩及南非等14国威胁征税,随后,他又签署行政令,延长"对等关 税"暂缓期至8月1日。 日本、韩国、哈萨克斯坦、马来西亚、突尼斯:25% 波黑、南非:30% 印度尼西亚:32% 特朗普当天在自己创立的"真实社交"网站上发布 ...
沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减,国内外电解铜总库存量连续累积-20250709
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 03:09
Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Amid the traditional consumption off - season in China, the total global electrolytic copper inventory has been continuously accumulating. However, due to the US imposing tariffs on imported copper leading to inter - market arbitrage trading and disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended that investors close their previous short positions at low prices and lightly test long positions on the main contract. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,620, up 350 from the previous day; trading volume was 61,263 hands, down 14,051; open interest was 207,382 hands, up 2,876; inventory was 19,109 tons, down 2,573. The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 79,795, down 90 [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,665, down 119; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 102,500. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 51.31, down 28.49; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 10.76, down 16.61. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.2380, up 0.14 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.51, up 0.37; the total inventory was 221,788, up 834 [2]. Important Information - **Macro**: The US Senate - version "bill" was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, with the fiscal deficit expected to expand by over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy has not significantly affected consumption. The US ADP employment number in August was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, but the expected interest - rate cut time is still September/October/December [3][4]. - **Upstream**: China's copper concentrate import index is negative but rising compared to last week. The departure (arrival) volume of copper concentrate at ports in the world (China) has decreased (increased). High - quality European scrap copper exports are restricted, and due to Sino - US trade disputes, traders are reluctant to accept US scrap copper. However, the positive price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper may increase the economic viability of scrap copper, and the scrap copper import window is open. Some copper smelters are affected by supply shortages and have stopped production. Domestic electrolytic copper production in July may increase month - on - month, while imports may be restricted, and the total inventory has increased [4]. - **Downstream**: Some copper processing enterprises plan to reduce production and inventory in July. The capacity utilization rate of various copper product enterprises has generally declined month - on - month. Affected by Sino - US tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export volume of domestic steel enterprises in July may decline, except for copper foil whose capacity utilization rate may increase [4]. Company News - Northern Copper Industry (000737) stated that its produced rolled copper foil is an upstream product of the PCB business chain, with a current production capacity of 5,000 tons per year [2]. - The Indonesian Minister of the Interior requested the relaxation of the copper concentrate export ban on Amman Mineral International due to its impact on the local economy [2].
特朗普下定决心,印欧日韩有大麻烦?中国成了美国不敢碰的“钉子”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-08 10:42
据上观新闻报道,7月5日,特朗普在"空军一号"上透露已签署12封贸易信函,将在7日发出并公布收信 国,而这些信函直指8月1日生效的关税政策。这一动作,让本就紧张的全球贸易局势再添变数。 特朗普政府的关税策略正从"暂缓"转向"强攻"。按其说法,已签署的12封信函将告知相关国家具体关 税,税率最高达70%,且8月1日就会正式征收。这种"突然袭击"式的操作,延续了特朗普惯用的谈判伎 俩——用模糊信息制造压力,逼迫对手在猜测中让步。 李在明(资料图) 从4月初到7月9日,美国"对等关税"90天暂缓期即将结束,75个受影响国家中,仅英国和越南选择妥 协。英方在汽车领域接受10%的加征关税,越方则同意美对其商品加征20%关税(原威胁加征46%), 换来美对越出口零关税。这种看似"双赢"的协议,实则是弱势方的无奈之举。 但日印韩三国的硬刚,却戳中了特朗普的痛点。日本金融机构此前大幅抛售美债,直接迫使美国暂停关 税战;印度在贸易谈判中从"迎合"转向"反制",用WTO诉讼表达不满;韩国因政权更迭,新政府"亲华 实用主义"立场让美韩贸易谈判失去原有节奏。这三个美国在亚太的重要盟友集体"唱反调",让特朗普 的关税策略遭遇前所未有的 ...
专家:中国没有将欧洲视为对手,而是希望与其共同维护平等互利的经贸往来
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-08 09:02
Core Points - The China-EU trade dispute remains unresolved ahead of the summit, with both sides showing reluctance to compromise on key issues [2][6] - China insists on the removal of discriminatory measures and protectionist practices, particularly regarding electric vehicle exports and medical device market access [2] - The EU demands the elimination of tariffs on brandy imports from China and the cessation of anti-dumping investigations on dairy products and pork [2] - The EU also seeks the complete removal of export license requirements for rare earth elements and magnets from China [2] - China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized that rare earth exports should not be a point of contention between China and Europe [2][3] - The geopolitical landscape has led China to implement export controls on rare earths as a strategic response to trade tensions, particularly with the US [3][7] - Both China and the EU recognize the importance of maintaining a stable trade relationship despite existing political and ideological differences [7] Summary by Category Trade Relations - The upcoming China-EU summit is marked by uncertainty regarding the resolution of trade disputes, with both parties hesitant to make concessions [6][7] - China is focused on ensuring that its export controls do not disrupt global trade significantly, particularly in the rare earth sector [3] Export Controls - China has implemented export controls on rare earths as a necessary measure in response to international trade pressures, particularly from the US [3] - The strategic significance of rare earths makes them a critical point in the trade discussions, although China does not view them as a primary issue in its relations with Europe [2][3] Political Dynamics - The EU is caught between its desire to maintain a strong relationship with China and its ongoing political tensions with the US [7] - Both China and the EU are cautious in their approach, with China not rushing to finalize agreements before the summit, while the EU continues to assert its stance on various international issues [7]
万通智控(300643) - 2025年6月25日投资者关系活动记录表
2025-07-08 07:40
Group 1: Company Overview and Strategy - The company, WanTong ZhiKong, has established itself as a supplier of TPMS and valve stems for motorcycle manufacturers such as ChunFeng Power and has secured contracts with Shanghai Honda and Wuyang Honda [1]. - The board secretary, Li Bin, introduced the company's historical development, strategic direction, and main business operations during the investor relations activity [1]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs and Global Operations - The company is monitoring the impact of a 36% tariff imposed by Thailand on imports, with a grace period of 20 days, and is prepared to respond proactively [2]. - With factories established in Germany, Czech Republic, the United States, and Thailand, the company has achieved localized production and supply, enabling it to effectively mitigate risks associated with trade disputes [2]. Group 3: Product Value and Specifications - The average value of the fleet management system installed in a heavy truck ranges from 2,000 to 3,000 yuan, which includes 16-22 sensors per vehicle, a receiver, and a T-Box [2].
中国对欧盟限制采购中国医疗器械发起反制
财富FORTUNE· 2025-07-07 11:15
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's response to the European Union's restrictions on Chinese medical devices, highlighting the ongoing trade tensions and the implications for both parties in the medical equipment sector [1][12]. Group 1: EU Restrictions and China's Response - On June 20, the European Commission announced that Chinese companies would be excluded from EU public procurement projects exceeding €5 million, with a cap on subcontracting to Chinese entities or components at 50% of the total project value [1]. - This marks the first application of the EU's International Procurement Instrument (IPI) against specific countries since its introduction in June 2022, aimed at addressing perceived discrimination against EU enterprises [1][4]. - In response, China announced on July 6 that it would implement reciprocal measures to protect its enterprises and maintain fair competition [12][13]. Group 2: Growth of Chinese Medical Device Industry - From 2015 to 2023, China's exports of medical devices and equipment to the EU more than doubled, with an expected export value of $9 billion in 2024, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase [3]. - Chinese companies have begun to enter high-end medical equipment markets, such as CT and MRI systems, demonstrating competitive capabilities through technological innovation [2]. - In the field of in vitro diagnostic reagents, Chinese firms have gained traction in Europe, particularly in grassroots healthcare and third-party testing laboratories, due to their diverse product lines and cost-effective solutions [2]. Group 3: Allegations and Criticism - A report claimed that the Chinese government promotes a "Buy China" policy, which supports domestic products while limiting imports, with a target for domestic medical devices to achieve a 70% market share in county-level hospitals by 2025 [5][6]. - The report also indicated that 87% of sampled Chinese public procurement projects contained direct or indirect restrictions on imported medical devices, with the proportion of tenders explicitly banning imports rising from 36% to 53% from 2022 to 2024 [7]. - The EU-China Chamber of Commerce criticized the IPI investigation's conclusions as unfair, asserting that the findings do not accurately reflect the reality of the Chinese medical procurement market [8].