Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is three red stars, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overnight, precious metals rose and then fell. After the recent US - Russia talks made progress, all parties continued to promote a meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, putting pressure on market risk - aversion sentiment. Precious metals continued to fluctuate and adjust, and investors should patiently wait for the callback to find a layout position [2] - For silver, after the recent repair of the gold - silver ratio, there is a lack of one - way driving force. The overall market risk preference remains strong, and the Russia - Ukraine talks continue to suppress the market's interest in investing in precious metals. There is a short - term need for a correction [3] - The recently released July Producer Price Index (PPI) was higher than expected, showing that although the transmission effect of trade tariffs is limited, inflation pressure still exists. Traders once reduced their bets on a September interest rate cut. However, federal funds futures still show an 83% probability of a September interest rate cut, reflecting the market's persistent expectation of the Fed's loose policy [3] Group 3: Other Key Points - Trump met with Russian President Putin last Friday and then quickly turned to dialogue with Ukrainian President Zelensky and leaders of many European countries on Monday. He clearly stated that the US will "help" Europe provide security guarantees for Ukraine as part of an agreement to end the war. He also launched the preparatory work for the "Putin - Zelensky meeting" and planned a subsequent three - party summit including the US [3]

当地时间8月19日，美国总统特朗普再度"炮轰"美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。他在社交媒体"TruthSocial"发文，称鲍威尔"正在严重伤害房地产行业"，过高的 利率政策让民众无法获得抵押贷款。他直言："通胀没有出现，利率应该大幅下降。'太迟先生'简直是一场灾难！" 此番言论无疑将市场的注意力推向了本周即将在怀俄明州举行的"杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会"。鲍威尔将在会上发表讲话，这很可能是鲍威尔最后一次以美联 储主席身份亮相该会议。 尽管就业市场转弱，但美国7月生产者物价指数（PPI）环比上涨0.9%，创下自2022年6月以来最大单月涨幅。 这意味着通胀压力仍然是存在的，所以部分经济学家对美联储能否在短期内迅速转向保持犹豫态度。 作为由堪萨斯城联储主办的年度盛会，杰克逊霍尔会议素以央行高官政策表态"风向标"著称。今年会议将于周四晚间开幕，鲍威尔的讲话定于周五上午10点 （北京时间晚10点）。 鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束。但特朗普此前已放话，将提前任命新一任美联储主席。 面对着持续的政治压力，鲍威尔仍然维持其一贯立场。美联储在7月议息会议上连续第五次选择维持基准利率在4.25%-4.50%的区间不变，并暗示9月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has announced the inclusion of 407 categories of steel and aluminum derivative products in the tariff list, with a tax rate set at 50%, raising concerns among businesses about increased costs and profit margins [1] Group 1: Tariff Announcement - The U.S. has expanded the coverage of steel and aluminum tariffs, affecting a wide range of products including wind turbines and components, mobile cranes, bulldozers, rail vehicles, compressors, and pumps [1] - The new tariff will take effect from June 4, increasing the existing tariff on steel and aluminum products imported from all trade partners, except the UK, from 25% to 50% [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - Companies are worried that the 50% tariff will significantly impact their operations, with potential for heavy financial strain [1] - According to a professor from Michigan State University, the expanded steel and aluminum tariff list could affect imports worth at least $320 billion based on 2024 overall import values, further increasing inflationary pressures [1] Group 3: Strategic Shift - The Vice President of Customs Affairs at DSV International Transport indicated that the 50% tariff represents not just a tariff issue but a strategic shift in the U.S. regulatory approach to steel and aluminum derivative products [1]

Market Overview - The US dollar index fluctuated around the 98 mark, ultimately closing up 0.12% at 98.24 [1] - Spot gold initially rose to a high of 3345.25 but later fell, closing down 0.51% at 3315.60 USD/oz [1] - Spot silver decreased by 1.68%, ending at 37.37 USD/oz [1] Key News Summary - The US Department of Commerce announced the inclusion of 407 categories of steel and aluminum derivative products in the tariff list, with a tax rate of 50%, raising concerns among businesses about increased costs and profit margins [2] - The expanded tariff list includes a wide range of products such as wind turbine components, cranes, bulldozers, rail vehicles, compressors, and pumps [2] - A professor from Michigan State University estimated that the current steel and aluminum tariffs affect at least 320 billion USD worth of imports based on 2024 overall import values, indicating further inflationary pressure due to rising prices [2] Trading Insights - Gold and silver continue to trade within a narrow range as traders await the next price catalyst, with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's upcoming speech being a potential trigger [4] - Gold prices have remained around 3350 USD over the past three months, supported by stable investment demand, while silver lacks momentum due to a combination of industrial demand and structural deficits [4] - Short-term performance of precious metals is expected to be volatile due to multiple factors including tariff trade policies, adjustments in Fed rate cut expectations, and geopolitical conflicts [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has announced the inclusion of 407 categories of steel and aluminum derivative products in the tariff list, with a tax rate of 50%, raising concerns among businesses about increased costs and profit margins [1] Group 1: Tariff Announcement - The announcement expands the coverage of steel and aluminum tariffs, affecting a wide range of products including wind turbine components, mobile cranes, bulldozers, heavy equipment, rail vehicles, compressors, and pumps [1] - The increase in tariffs from 25% to 50% on steel and aluminum products imported from all trade partners except the UK will take effect from June 4 [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The Vice Minister of Commerce for Industrial and Security, Jeffrey Kessler, indicated that this move signifies a strategic shift in the U.S. regulatory approach to steel and aluminum derivative products [1] - According to Jason Miller, a professor at Michigan State University, the current steel and aluminum tariffs impact at least $320 billion worth of imported goods based on the projected total import value for 2024 [1] - The expansion of the steel and aluminum tariff list is expected to further increase inflationary pressures on rising prices [1] Group 3: Industry Reactions - Brian Baldwin, Vice President of Customs Affairs at Swiss-based DSV International Transport, expressed that the 50% tariff will have a severe impact, indicating that this issue transcends mere tariffs [1]

新华财经北京8月20日电（马萌伟）继18日脱离逾两周低位后，19日，美元指数再次脱离逾两周低位， 且盘中一度转跌。境内外人民币持稳，延续近期窄幅波动，隐含波动率降至2024年3月以来的最低水 平。 中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，后续美元指数的变化以及国内政策或成为人民币汇率的重要影响因 素。若美联储如期降息，美元指数或因此走弱，对于我国证券账户的资本流入有望形成一定利好。央行 稳汇率政策张弛有度，将为人民币汇率的韧性提供有力支撑。 在岸人民币兑美元基本持平于7.1830，连续六个交易日波幅不到0.1%；离岸人民币兑美元持平于 7.1880，连续第五个交易日波幅不到0.1%；离岸人民币兑美元1个月隐含波动率跌至2.77%，创2024年3 月以来的最低水平。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛表示，人民币兑美元存在进一步升值突破7元的可能性。推动人民币走 升的情形包括美国经济疲软、美联储减息以及市场对美元信心普遍下降（美元信誉受损）。另外，还有 一种可能推升人民币的情形，就是中美能够像美国总统特朗普第一个任期那样达成一个第二阶段经贸协 议，这可能提升市场信心。 具体数据显示，美元指数围绕98关口来回震荡，最终收涨0.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has unexpectedly added 407 products to its list of steel and aluminum derivative products subject to a 50% tariff, impacting various industries and trade operations [1][4]. Group 1: Scope and Impact - The newly added products include wind turbines and components, mobile cranes, bulldozers, rail vehicles, furniture, compressors, and pumps, among hundreds of others [4]. - The announcement took effect on August 18, with many traders caught off guard due to the lack of prior notification, affecting ongoing shipments [4]. - The new tariffs are expected to increase the overall effective tariff rate in the U.S. by approximately 1 percentage point, impacting over $200 billion in imports from the previous year [5]. Group 2: Strategic Changes and Compliance Burden - The inclusion of a wide range of products indicates a strategic shift in the regulatory approach to steel and aluminum derivatives, with implications for compliance and supply chain management [5]. - Companies will now need to provide detailed information regarding the weight of aluminum, customs value percentages, and the countries of casting/smelting, significantly increasing compliance burdens [5]. - The total value of goods affected by metal tariffs is estimated to reach around $328 billion, potentially exacerbating inflationary pressures on already rising prices [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has expanded its steel and aluminum tariffs to include 407 categories of derived products, imposing a 50% tax rate, which is expected to significantly impact costs and profit margins for various industries [1][1][1] Group 1: Tariff Expansion Details - The U.S. Department of Commerce has announced the inclusion of 407 categories of steel and aluminum derived products in the tariff list, with a tax rate set at 50% [1] - The expanded list covers a wide range of products, including wind turbines and components, mobile cranes, bulldozers, heavy equipment, rail vehicles, compressors, and pumps [1][1] Group 2: Economic Impact - According to estimates, the expanded steel and aluminum tariffs will affect imports worth at least $320 billion, based on the projected total import value for 2024 [1] - The increase in tariffs is expected to further elevate inflationary pressures by contributing to rising prices [1] Group 3: Industry Reactions - Companies are concerned that the 50% tariff will lead to increased costs and significantly impact profit margins [1] - Industry experts view this move not just as a tariff issue but as a strategic shift in the U.S. regulatory approach towards steel and aluminum derived products [1][1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security announced a list of 407 product categories subject to a 50% import tariff, effective from August 18, impacting at least $320 billion in imports and potentially increasing inflationary pressures [2] - The products added to the tariff list include wind turbines and components, mobile cranes, bulldozers, heavy equipment, rail vehicles, furniture, compressors, and pumps [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expects tariff revenues to significantly exceed the initial forecast of $300 billion for the year, with plans to use these funds to begin repaying the substantial U.S. federal debt [2] Group 2 - Recent gold prices have shown a downward trend, trading below key moving averages, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [3] - The gold market is currently experiencing a weak oscillating trend, with potential support near the 100-day moving average, suggesting limited downside [3] - Resistance levels to watch include the 5-day moving average and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating potential for a price pullback [3]

Core Viewpoint - Major U.S. wire manufacturers, including Southwire Co. LLC and Cerro Wire LLC, are raising prices on copper wire products following President Trump's decision to exempt basic copper import tariffs, which is expected to benefit U.S. copper processing companies [1] Group 1: Price Changes - U.S. wire manufacturers are increasing prices on copper wire products [1] - The exemption of copper import tariffs is anticipated to enhance the pricing power of domestic producers [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - Analysts suggest that the tariff decision may lead to inflationary pressure on U.S. consumers [1] - Aisling Hubert from CRU Group indicates that domestic producers will have greater pricing authority [1] - Peter Schmitz from Wood Mackenzie states that ultimately, U.S. consumers will bear the cost of these price increases [1]