Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell centers around monetary policy, particularly the Fed's reluctance to lower interest rates despite economic pressures [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Renovation Controversy - The renovation project of the Federal Reserve headquarters has seen its budget increase from $1.8 billion to $2.5 billion, with a cost overrun of approximately $700 million, leading to criticism from the White House [1]. - The average renovation cost per square foot is reported to be $1,923, which is double the typical cost for federal building renovations [1]. - The White House has raised concerns that the renovation may violate federal laws and has requested a written response from Powell regarding several issues within seven working days [1]. Group 2: Economic Policy Disputes - Trump has consistently pressured the Fed to lower interest rates to support economic growth, especially following the implementation of large tariffs [2]. - The White House's dissatisfaction with the Fed's stance has intensified, with officials accusing the Fed of misjudging inflation and being slow to act [2]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin criticized the Fed for failing the American people, suggesting that its bureaucratic approach has led to worse outcomes [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Recent data shows that inflation remains moderate, with consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months holding steady at 3%, alleviating earlier concerns [3]. - Importers had stockpiled goods before tariffs were implemented, which helped mitigate short-term price pressures [3]. - Over half of the surveyed companies reported a decline in profit margins due to tariffs, with over 80% expecting to raise prices in the next six months [3]. Group 4: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes revealed a split among officials regarding future interest rate paths, with some advocating for preventive rate cuts [4]. - Powell indicated that if summer inflation data significantly underperforms expectations, he would consider lowering rates at an appropriate time [4]. - The market anticipates that the Fed will maintain current interest rates in the upcoming July meeting, which could provoke a stronger reaction from the Trump administration [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly indicates that the economic conditions are strong, with robust growth and employment, while inflationary pressures are easing [1] Economic Conditions - Economic growth is described as steady, suggesting a positive outlook for various sectors [1] - Employment levels are reported to be stable, indicating a healthy job market [1] Inflation Trends - Inflationary pressures are noted to be alleviating, which could impact monetary policy decisions moving forward [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. immigration policies and budget deficits are contributing to inflationary pressures [1] Group 2 - The CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, highlights the impact of immigration policies on the economy [1] - The discussion includes how budget deficits are influencing inflation rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, believes that tariffs exert inflationary pressure and will not be implemented all at once [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are expected to contribute to inflationary pressures in the economy [1] - The implementation of tariffs will be gradual rather than immediate [1]

【要闻汇总】 摘要周四（7月10日），周三，美元指数在97.5附近来回震荡，最终收跌0.01%，报97.45。基准的10年 期美债收益率收报4.340%，2年期美债收益率收报3.849%。现货黄金在欧盘一度失守3290美元关口，但 在美盘前加速上行，迅速收复日内大部分失地并转涨，最终收涨0.37%，收报3313.73美元/盎司；现货 白银反弹力度较黄金偏弱，最终收跌1%，报36.37美元/盎司。 【行情回顾】 周四（7月10日），周三，美元指数在97.5附近来回震荡，最终收跌0.01%，报97.45。基准的10年期美 债收益率收报4.340%，2年期美债收益率收报3.849%。现货黄金在欧盘一度失守3290美元关口，但在美 盘前加速上行，迅速收复日内大部分失地并转涨，最终收涨0.37%，收报3313.73美元/盎司；现货白银 反弹力度较黄金偏弱，最终收跌1%，报36.37美元/盎司。 欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩周四表示，"我们正在马不停蹄地努力与美国达成初步协议，以尽可 能降低关税并提供企业所需的稳定性。 美联储 6 月 17 日至 18 日的政策会议纪要显示，大多数政策制定者仍然担心特朗普激进贸易政策 ...

Group 1 - The oil market is facing concerns over a potential oversupply of crude oil, which may lead to a decline in oil prices, while simultaneously, a diesel shortage is anticipated, potentially increasing transportation and heating costs in winter 2024 [1] - Low refining profit margins in Q4 2024 are forcing refineries to reduce operating rates, resulting in low diesel inventories by early 2025, despite current refinery operations being near full capacity [1] - Diesel is a critical fuel for freight, agricultural machinery, and industrial activities, accounting for approximately 4% of residential heating energy in the US and 10% in Europe [1] Group 2 - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that distillate oil inventories were 23% lower than the five-year average as of the week of July 4, with global inventories also at seasonal lows [1] - Sanctions on Russian oil and OPEC production cuts have significantly reduced the supply of heavy crude oil, which is a key raw material for diesel, particularly impacting the European market where the US accounts for about one-third of diesel imports [1] - The recent increase in US crude oil inventories by 7.1 million barrels to 426 million barrels, alongside a 6% rise in gasoline demand to 9.2 million barrels per day, reflects ongoing market dynamics [2]

黄金周三（7月9日）早盘小幅上涨3308附近承压下跌，欧盘维持在3296-3282区间震荡，美盘向上破位走高，尾盘最高上涨至3317附近，日线收出一根带有 下影线的阳线。 一、基本面 1、欧美贸易谈判 欧盟的紧迫议程：欧盟正在加速与美国达成贸易协议，以避免特朗普政府设定的8月1日关税上调期限进一步冲击其经济。双方已就汽车关税税率和配额问题 展开深入讨论。 谈判进展与潜在影响：消息人士透露，未来几天内有望达成初步协议。然而，特朗普政府对配额制持保留态度，这为谈判增添了不确定性。 2、美联储政策与通胀压力 美联储的谨慎立场：尽管特朗普多次呼吁立即大幅降息，但美联储6月会议记录显示，仅有少数决策者支持7月降息，大多数人更担心贸易关税可能推高的通 胀压力。 降息预期与市场反应：投资者普遍预期美联储将在9月首次降息，并在年底前累计降息50个基点。然而，强于预期的就业数据以及关税政策的不确定性，使 得美联储在货币政策调整上保持高度谨慎。 3、今日关注 二、技术面 1、日线级别：黄金在周二经历大跌后，周三呈现下探回升态势并收阳，今日早盘小幅上涨。从日线级别来看，短期先关注3321-3325附近阻力，该区域汇聚 了5日均线、 ...

Group 1 - The core narrative of the current foreign exchange market has shifted from trade war concerns to fundamental macroeconomic drivers, with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy at the center [1] - Market participants are closely examining the upcoming June FOMC meeting minutes to gauge the internal consensus on dovishness within the Federal Reserve [1][2] - If the minutes confirm a deeper dovish inclination, it would strengthen expectations for rate cuts in the summer, leading to downward pressure on the US dollar [2] Group 2 - The influence of tariff discussions from the Trump administration appears to be diminishing in the current foreign exchange market, with market participants interpreting these threats as negotiation tactics rather than a significant policy shift [2] - Tariffs may create asymmetric impacts in specific regions or asset classes, as seen with the recent surge in copper prices attributed to tariff expectations [2] - The EUR/USD currency pair is currently in a state of stagnation around 1.17, influenced by residual interest rate premiums and ongoing tariff uncertainties in the Eurozone [3] Group 3 - The foreign exchange market is characterized by a search for clarity, which is expected to come from the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and upcoming CPI data [3] - The Japanese yen is perceived as vulnerable due to geopolitical and targeted tariff risks, while the Mexican peso may benefit indirectly from capital reallocation or safe-haven flows [4]

这反过来又将基准 10 年期美国政府债券和美元的收益率推高至两周高点，使无收益的金价吸引力降 低。然而，美元多头似乎不愿意，并选择等待有关美联储降息路径的更多线索，然后再进行新的押注。 与此同时，投资者仍在定价美联储从今年年底（从 10 月开始）降息 50 个基点的可能性。因此，上次 FOMC 会议纪要和本周几位美联储官员的讲话将被寻找对央行政策前景的更多见解。 周三（7月9日）欧市早盘，贵金属走势分化，现货黄金震荡上行，暂企3284.79美元关口上方，现货白 银小幅上涨，银价盘中升至36.74美元，本周多位美联储官员将发表讲话，同时市场还将迎来FOMC会 议纪要的公布。投资者期待从中获取更多关于美联储政策路径的线索，尤其是对通胀前景与全球风险的 评估，这将成为金价走势的潜在转折点。 【要闻速递】 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普本周早些时候宣布从 8 月 1 日起对一系列主要经济体征收更高的关税，这让投 资者感到不安。此外，特朗普周二誓言要进一步升级他的贸易战，威胁美国对外国药品征收高达 200% 的关税，对铜征收高达 50% 的关税。 投资者现在似乎相信，美国的关税最终会传导到更高的价格，并允许美联储坚持其观望态度 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently experiencing narrow fluctuations, trading around $3302 per ounce, following a decline of over 1% on Tuesday, where it hit a low of $3287.06 per ounce, marking a one-week low [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of factors including optimistic trade negotiations, a strengthening dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the complexities of Trump's tariff policies [1][4] - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which could influence future gold price movements [1] Group 2 - Recent optimistic signals from U.S. trade negotiations with major partners have reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - President Trump warned of tariffs on 14 countries but postponed the effective date to August 1, allowing for further negotiations, which has led to market expectations for more lenient trade policies [3] - Japan and South Korea are actively seeking to mitigate the impact of tariffs through negotiations, with Japan focusing on concessions in the automotive sector while protecting agricultural interests [3] Group 3 - The global financial market's reaction to Trump's tariff policies has been cautious, with mixed performances in major indices, indicating investor hesitation amid trade negotiations [4] - Short-term pressures on gold prices are expected to continue due to optimistic trade sentiments, a strong dollar, and rising Treasury yields, while long-term uncertainties and inflation pressures may support gold [4] - Investors are advised to monitor developments in trade negotiations, monetary policy, and macroeconomic data to identify potential opportunities in gold prices [4]