Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Group 1 - The average wage in the UK, excluding bonuses, slightly decreased to 4.6% year-on-year for the three months ending in September, indicating a weakening labor market [1] - The unemployment rate in the UK reached 5% for the three months ending in September, the highest level since February 2021, with a significant increase in jobless claims in October [1] - The Bank of England's decision to maintain interest rates at 4% reflects internal divisions, with four members advocating for a 25 basis point cut, suggesting a potential shift in monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The Bank of England has revised its policy guidance, indicating that interest rates "may continue along a gradual downward path," which has increased expectations for a rate cut in December [2] - Analysts suggest that the further slowdown in wage growth supports the rationale for a rate cut by the Bank of England, with predictions that the next cut could occur in December [2] - The British pound is expected to weaken due to the ongoing rate cut cycle of the Bank of England, contrasting with the European Central Bank's situation, and the euro is anticipated to strengthen against the pound [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - ADP employment data exceeded expectations and the market worried about a liquidity crisis in the US, causing the gold price to continue its volatile adjustment. Last Friday (November 7), the Shanghai gold futures price dropped 1.72% to 921.92 yuan/gram compared to the previous Friday, and the COMEX gold futures price fell 1.20% to 4077.20 US dollars/ounce. In the spot market, the gold T+D price declined 1.53% to 921.02 yuan/gram, and the London gold price decreased 2.65% to 4002.69 US dollars/ounce. The unexpectedly high ADP employment data and hawkish remarks from Fed officials cooled the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, pressuring the gold price. The significant rise in the US SOFR rate on October 31, announced last Monday, under the backdrop of the government shutdown and tightening bank liquidity, also triggered concerns about a liquidity crisis, putting downward pressure on the gold price. However, the subsequent sharp decline in the SOFR rate alleviated market concerns and pushed the gold price to rebound. Overall, the gold price continued its volatile adjustment last week due to the cooling of interest rate cut expectations and concerns about a liquidity crisis [3]. - This week (the week of November 10), the gold price will continue to fluctuate within a range. The US Senate planned to hold a trial vote on a new plan to end the government shutdown last Sunday (November 9), and the government is expected to resume work this week, which will ease market risk aversion and have a certain negative impact on the gold price. However, if the government shutdown ends, multiple private - sector economic indicators will be released this week, and these data are expected to remain weak, which will increase the market's expectation of interest rate cuts and be beneficial to gold. Although the long - term upward trend of the gold price remains unchanged, there are currently no clear upward factors. Given various uncertainties, the gold price is expected to continue its range - bound fluctuation this week [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Movements - Last Friday (November 7), the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 921.26 yuan/gram, down 0.66 yuan/gram from the previous Friday. The COMEX gold futures price closed at 4007.80 US dollars/ounce, continuing to decline by 5.60 US dollars/ounce. In the spot market, the gold T+D price closed at 917.64 yuan/gram, down 3.38 yuan/gram, and the London gold price closed at 4000.29 US dollars/ounce, down 2.40 US dollars/ounce [5]. - The trading data shows that the cumulative increase of the Shanghai gold futures was 0.32%, with a trading volume of 152 million and an open interest of 13.67 million, a decrease of 20,231. The COMEX gold futures had a cumulative increase of 0.28%, a trading volume of 102 million, an open interest of 31.15 million, and a decrease of 23,438. The gold T+D spot had a cumulative increase of 0.08%, a trading volume of 26.92 million, an open interest of 25.45 million, and an increase of 6,762. The London gold spot had a cumulative decrease of 0.06% [6]. 1.2 Gold Basis - Last Friday, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 1.10 US dollars/ounce, a significant drop of 16.90 US dollars/ounce from the previous Friday. The Shanghai gold basis was - 1.38 yuan/gram, a decline of 1.92 yuan/gram from the previous Friday [8]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - Last week, the decline of the foreign - market gold price was smaller than that of the domestic - market gold price. The gold domestic - foreign price difference on Friday was - 18.76 yuan/gram, a significant recovery from - 19.46 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The decline of the crude oil price was greater than that of gold, and the gold - oil ratio increased slightly. The silver price continued to rise slightly while the gold price continued to fall, causing the gold - silver ratio to decline slightly. Due to the government shutdown, the spread between the US SOFR rate and the overnight repo rate soared, triggering concerns about US dollar liquidity, reducing market risk appetite, and causing the copper price to fall more sharply than gold, leading to a significant increase in the gold - copper ratio [10]. 1.4 Position Analysis - In the spot market, the gold ETF holdings increased slightly last week. As of last Friday, the holdings of the world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund were 1042.06 tons, a slight increase of 2.86 tons from the previous week. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D continued to decrease, with a total of 269,158 kilograms last week, a 6.29% decrease from the previous week. - In the futures market, as of September 23 (the latest available data), both the long and short positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions increased, but the increase in short positions was less than that of long positions, resulting in a slight increase in the net long positions. In terms of inventory, the COMEX gold futures inventory continued to decrease last week, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 1800 kilograms to 89,616 kilograms [14]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - The US ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October. The index was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. Among the important sub - indices, the new orders index was 49.4, higher than the previous value of 48.9. The new orders in October decreased for the second consecutive month, but the decline rate slowed down. The production index dropped 2.8 points to 48.2, indicating output contraction in two of the past three months. The employment index was 46.0, higher than the previous value of 45.3 but still in the contraction range, contracting for the ninth consecutive month. The price - paid index was 58.0, the lowest level since the beginning of this year, far lower than the expected 62.5 and the previous value of 61.9, indicating a continued reduction in inflation pressure. The supplier delivery index rose to a four - month high, indicating a longer delivery cycle. The manufacturer's inventory decreased by the largest margin in a year, and the customer inventory level remained low, suggesting that future orders may increase, supporting production activities [17]. - The US Senate failed to pass the appropriation bill, and the federal government shutdown is about to break the record. The current shutdown, which started on October 1, is likely to become the longest in US history. However, there are initial signs of a thaw in Congress, and senior lawmakers from both parties are sending cautious and optimistic signals, which eases market concerns about the US economic and political stability [18]. - The US ISM services PMI reached an eight - month high in October, and the price - paid index reached a three - year high. The index was 52.4, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.0. The new orders index jumped 5.8 points to 56.2, reaching a one - year high. Along with the rebound in demand, inflation pressure became more obvious, and the input price index rose to 70.0, the highest in three years, indicating that the service industry is under greater pressure from US import tariffs. The employment situation is stabilizing, and the employment index rose to a five - month high of 48.2. Although still below 50, indicating a continued decline in employment, the decline rate has slowed down. The inventory index only contracted slightly in October, and more service companies believe their inventory levels are still high relative to business activities [19]. - The US "small non - farm" ADP employment increased by 42,000 in October, exceeding expectations, but wage growth remained stagnant. The increase was mainly driven by the service industry, which added 32,000 jobs, and the commodity production industry, which added 9,000 jobs. The recruitment situation rebounded from two consecutive months of weakness, but the rebound was not widespread, mainly supported by education, healthcare, trade, transportation, and public utilities [19][20]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - Last week, the divergence among Fed officials on whether to continue cutting interest rates in December increased. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, who has a vote this year, said the government shutdown led to the lack of key inflation data, making him cautious about further rate cuts. Cleveland Fed President Mester, who will have a vote next year, said inflation is a more urgent concern than a weak labor market. She believes the current interest rate setting is "almost non - restrictive" and advocates that monetary policy should continue to put pressure on inflation. New York Fed President Williams said the era of low interest rates continues, and the neutral interest rate is estimated to be around 1%. Fed Governor Barr, who was previously the vice - chair for supervision, said the Fed must focus on "ensuring the robustness of the employment market" [29][30]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Movement - The US dollar index first rose and then fell last week, showing a slight overall decline. The rebound of the October US ISM services PMI index and the significant increase in the October ADP employment number, both exceeding market expectations, drove the dollar index up. However, due to the ongoing government shutdown, market risk sentiment cooled, causing the dollar index to decline again. As of last Friday, the dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 compared to the previous Friday [31]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Movement - The US 10 - year TIPS yield increased slightly last week. Fed officials' remarks generally strengthened Powell's hawkish view that "a December rate cut is not certain", and the rebound in the October ADP employment number showed positive signs in the labor market, leading to a slight increase in the US 10 - year TIPS yield. As of last Friday, the yield rose 2bp to 1.83% [33]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - Russian forces continuously attacked the Ukrainian power system. Last Saturday (November 8), Russia launched a large - scale drone and missile attack on Ukraine, damaging large - scale energy facilities in three regions. Zelensky said Russia has always targeted the power system to damage heating equipment and called for corresponding sanctions. The Russian Ministry of Defense said the attacks were in response to Kiev's attacks on Russian territory [34].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser indicated that the current economy faces significant capacity constraints, limiting further interest rate cuts [1] Economic Conditions - Economic capacity utilization is at its highest level in the past 40 years during the recovery period [1] - Inflation pressures remain persistently above the central bank's target range, increasing the risk of continuing loose monetary policy [1] Monetary Policy - Hauser emphasized that if demand growth exceeds existing capacity limits, it will exacerbate inflationary risks [1] - Despite the RBA having implemented three interest rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, the latest data shows a rebound in inflation in the third quarter, forcing the central bank to pause further easing measures [1]

Group 1 - Private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, showing a slight recovery but still significantly lower than earlier this year [3] - Industries such as trade, transportation, and utilities are actively hiring, while professional services and information sectors are experiencing job losses [3] - Cumulative layoffs in 2023 have exceeded 1.1 million, a 44% increase compared to the same period last year, with technology and retail sectors being the hardest hit [4] Group 2 - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index dropped to 50.3 in November, the lowest level since 2022, influenced by rising prices and government shutdown concerns [4] - Current employment conditions are favorable for those employed but challenging for job seekers, indicating a "very uncomfortable economic situation" [5] - Market analysts suggest that the mixed data may lead the Federal Reserve to interpret the labor market's softening as a signal for potential changes in monetary policy [5]

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - UBS suggests that if the US Supreme Court rules Trump's tariff policy illegal, it could force the government to refund approximately $140 billion in taxes, which is 7.9% of the projected federal budget deficit for FY2025. This could lead to a structural low-tariff trade environment, enhancing household purchasing power and easing inflationary pressures, thus providing the Federal Reserve with more room for rate cuts [1] - Barclays indicates that if repo rates remain above the effective federal funds rate target range for several weeks, the Federal Reserve may need to intervene by increasing reserves through more repo lending or direct purchases of Treasury securities [2] - Jefferies maintains a low allocation stance on US Treasuries, highlighting that the Supreme Court's decision on tariffs could significantly impact market volatility and the yield curve [2] Group 2: UK Economic Outlook - Danske Bank anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England, with a close vote of 5-4. The cooling labor market is noted, but not at a concerning pace. Key votes from the Governor and Deputy Governor will be crucial [3] - Analysts from London Capital Group expect the Bank of England to keep the base rate at 4.0% pending details from the upcoming budget announcement, as uncertainty in new policy measures is suppressing economic activity [4] - Berenberg economists predict that potential tax increases in the UK budget could pave the way for further rate cuts next year, with at least two cuts of 25 basis points to 3.50% anticipated if fiscal tightening is implemented [4] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Data - Eurozone retail sales for September fell short of expectations, primarily due to a 0.2% decline in non-food sales, while food sales remained stable. This lagging data is not expected to influence the European Central Bank's policy outlook [5]

周四（11月6日）欧盘市中，尽管美元走强，美国国债收益率上升，但由于交易员买入黄金，金价反弹 至4000美元水平。随着贵金属需求增加，白银上涨2%。铂金在贵金属需求上升的背景下上涨，铂金试 图回到1540美元上方。 在ISM服务业数据公布之前，ADP发布的数据显示出劳动力市场的强劲韧性。私营企业在招聘方面的表 现超出预期，新增就业岗位数量可观，这无疑暗示着就业市场依然保持着良好的运行状态。然而，华尔 街最初的反应却并不乐观，不过避险情绪的升温在一定程度上限制了金价的上涨幅度，使得黄金价格始 终未能突破4,000美元这一关键大关。 美联储内部对于经济形势的看法也存在分歧。一些官员的言论引起了市场的关注，例如美联储理事 Stephen Miran对ADP数据表示认可和赞赏，但他同时暗示利率或许应该进一步降低。芝加哥联邦储备银 行行长Austan Goolsbee在周一指出，通胀压力依然是一个不容忽视的问题；而美联储理事Lisa Cook则认 为，就业市场已经显露出一些脆弱的迹象。 此外，美国国内的政治动态也给市场带来了一定的不确定性。早些时候，美国最高法院计划就特朗普总 统征收关税的合法性举行听证会。此前，一家下 ...

Group 1 - The ADP employment report for October shows that the U.S. private sector added 42,000 jobs, exceeding expectations and ending a two-month decline [1] - The ISM services PMI increased to 52.4, indicating a rebound in business activity, while the ISM prices paid index reached a new high since 2022, highlighting ongoing inflation pressures [1] - The strong dollar, with the index rising to 100.22, has put downward pressure on gold prices, which retreated to $3,970, failing to break the critical $4,000 level [1][2] Group 2 - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have heightened market tension, with expectations for continued tightening policies, further pressuring gold prices [2] - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 37th day, creating uncertainty in the market and delaying the release of important data, which has amplified the impact of the ADP employment report [2] - Gold prices are currently fluctuating around $3,970, with short-term gains constrained by the strong dollar; a breakthrough above $4,000 could target $4,082, while a drop below $3,929 may lead to a decline towards $3,854 [2] Group 3 - The strong U.S. economic data continues to support a robust dollar, putting downward pressure on gold, which has not yet surpassed the $4,000 mark [3] - Global uncertainties, including the U.S. government shutdown, geopolitical tensions, and Federal Reserve policy expectations, still provide support for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Investors should closely monitor the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the progress of the government shutdown, as these factors will significantly influence market sentiment and asset prices [3]

Group 1 - The overnight rise in U.S. Treasury yields was driven by strong economic data, with all maturities experiencing increases [2] - The latest non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 206,000 jobs in June, surpassing economists' expectations of 190,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% and average hourly earnings rose by 3.9% year-on-year, above the expected 3.8% [2] - The Federal Reserve's policy path remains unclear, with Powell emphasizing that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, which could lead to further rebounds in Treasury yields if the Fed slows its rate-cutting pace [2] Group 2 - Despite strong economic data, inflation pressures continue to be a focal point for the market, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index rising by 3% year-on-year in September and 0.3% month-on-month, driven by a 4.1% increase in energy prices and rapid food price increases [3] - The U.S. Treasury has alleviated long-term Treasury supply pressures through increased short-term bond issuance and adjustments in financing strategies, contributing to a decline in "term premium" [3] Group 3 - Columbia Threadneedle bond manager Ed Al-Hussainy noted that the core issue is not whether to buy U.S. Treasuries, but rather if there are better alternatives available, highlighting the challenges faced by those who shorted Treasuries earlier in the year [4]

Core Insights - The US services sector showed signs of recovery in October, with the ISM services PMI rising to 52.4%, indicating expansion for the eighth consecutive month, although still below historical averages [2] - The business activity index increased significantly to 54.3%, while the new orders index reached 56.2%, reflecting improved demand in the services sector [2] - Employment index remained in contraction at 48.2%, indicating weak hiring intentions among businesses despite a slight improvement from the previous month [2] - The prices index surged to 70%, the highest level since October 2022, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the services sector [2][3] Industry Performance - Eleven industries experienced growth in October, including accommodation and food services, retail, wholesale, real estate, healthcare, and transportation and warehousing [3] - Six industries faced contraction, including arts and entertainment, management services, finance and insurance, public administration, and construction [3] - Seasonal demand improvements were noted in sectors like healthcare and retail, while some manufacturing and equipment firms continued to struggle with import restrictions and rising prices [3] Supply Chain and Inventory - The supplier deliveries index remained in expansion at 50.8%, indicating slower delivery speeds, which may relate to improved demand or supply chain constraints [2] - The inventory index recorded at 49.5%, suggesting a reduction in inventory levels as businesses respond to demand and cost uncertainties [3] - Backlog orders dropped significantly to 40.8%, the second-lowest level since 2009, indicating that businesses can manage current orders without significant delivery delays [3]