Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate hikes since March 2023 [1] - The FOMC members unanimously acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity growth in the first half of the year, despite fluctuations in net exports affecting data [1] - The decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged was supported by a 9-2 vote, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point cut to prevent further weakening of the labor market [1] Group 2 - Recent labor market data showed that July's non-farm payroll additions were significantly below expectations, with an increase in the unemployment rate and a drop in labor force participation to its lowest level since the end of 2022 [1] - Historical revisions to employment data for May and June erased over 250,000 job additions, undermining the perception of a strong labor market [1] - The mixed inflation data in July has caused discomfort within the Federal Reserve, with ongoing tariff effects expected to continue pushing inflation higher in the coming months [2]

据欧盟统计局数据，2025年7月，欧盟通胀率为2.4%，涨幅低于上年同期0.4个百分点。从成员国看，年 通胀率最低的国家是塞浦路斯0.1%，法国为0.9%，爱尔兰为1.6%；年通胀率最高的国家是罗马尼亚 6.6%，爱沙尼亚为5.6%，斯洛伐克为4.6%。 ...

Group 1 - The Eurozone private sector expanded at the fastest pace in 15 months, with the composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising from 50.9 in July to 51.1 in August, exceeding analysts' expectations of 50.6 [1][4] - The manufacturing PMI increased to 50.5, marking the first expansion since June 2022, while the service sector showed slight weakening but remained in line with expectations [1][4] - Germany's manufacturing sector is nearing the end of a three-year downturn, indicating a potential recovery in the Eurozone economy [1][4] Group 2 - Despite challenges such as US tariffs and general uncertainty, businesses across the Eurozone are performing relatively well, as noted by economists [4] - The Euro to US dollar exchange rate stabilized at 1.1654, while German 10-year bond yields rose by 2 basis points to 2.73%, reflecting market confidence [4] - The Eurozone's economy unexpectedly grew by 0.1% in the second quarter, although this was significantly lower than the previous quarter's growth of 0.6% [4] Group 3 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain the deposit rate at 2% during the September meeting, following a pause in rate changes after eight consecutive cuts [5] - The UK composite PMI rose to 53 in August, outperforming market expectations, while the US composite PMI data is anticipated to remain above 50 [5]

Core Insights - The overall consumer price index (CPI) in Hong Kong increased by 1.0% year-on-year in July 2025, down from 1.4% in June 2025, primarily due to lower property tax relief measures compared to the previous year [1] - The basic inflation rate, excluding one-off government relief measures, remained at 1.0% in July 2025, consistent with June 2025 [1] - The average monthly change rate of the CPI for the three months ending July 2025 was 0.2%, compared to 0.0% for the three months ending June 2025 [1] Detailed Breakdown - The year-on-year increases in the consumer price indices for categories A, B, and C in July 2025 were 1.5%, 0.9%, and 0.6%, respectively, down from 2.1%, 1.3%, and 0.9% in June 2025 [2] - Excluding government relief measures, the year-on-year increases for categories A, B, and C in July 2025 were 1.4%, 0.9%, and 0.6%, compared to 1.5%, 0.9%, and 0.7% in June 2025 [2] - The average monthly change rates for categories A, B, and C for the three months ending July 2025 were 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.1%, respectively, compared to 0.0% for the three months ending June 2025 [2] Price Changes by Category - In July 2025, the categories with year-on-year price increases included housing (up 1.8%), tobacco and alcohol (up 1.7%), transportation (up 1.4%), dining out and takeout (up 1.3%), miscellaneous services (up 1.0%), and utilities (up 0.7%) [3] - Conversely, categories with year-on-year price decreases included clothing (down 3.3%), durable goods (down 2.3%), and basic food items (down 0.1%) [3] - For the first seven months of 2025, the overall CPI increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with category A, B, and C indices rising by 2.2%, 1.4%, and 1.1%, respectively [3] Annual Overview - For the twelve months ending July 2025, the overall CPI increased by an average of 1.7% year-on-year, with category A, B, and C indices rising by 2.2%, 1.5%, and 1.3%, respectively [4] - Excluding one-off government relief measures, the corresponding increases were 1.2%, 1.4%, 1.1%, and 1.0% [4] - A government spokesperson indicated that the inflation in July remained mild, with the basic CPI year-on-year increase at 1.0%, similar to the previous month, and price pressures in major components being generally controlled [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Central Bank of Russia may lower the key interest rate from 18% this year if inflation decreases rapidly, but maintaining the current level is also a possibility to ensure sustainable inflation reduction [1] - The baseline forecast indicates that the inflation rate is expected to be between 6%-7% in 2025, and subsequently drop to 4% in the following years [1] - The average key interest rate is projected to be between 16.3%-18% from August to December this year, with expectations of 12%-13% next year, although the specific year-end figure may exceed this range [1] Group 2 - The Central Bank's predictions consider the possibility of further rate cuts if inflation improves significantly, but emphasizes that a rate decrease this year is not guaranteed [1] - The statement highlights that the current interest rate of 18% may be maintained if necessary, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1]

Core Insights - Sweden's inflation rate for July is reported at 0.8%, an increase from 0.7% in June [1] - The core inflation rate for July stands at 3.0%, up from 2.8% in June [1] Industry Impact - The rise in inflation is primarily attributed to the summer tourism sector, which has led to price increases in related industries [1] - Package tour prices increased by 16.4% month-on-month, indicating a significant impact from tourism on inflation [1] - Additionally, prices for car rentals and international flights have also seen an upward trend [1] - Diesel prices rose by 4.3% month-on-month, contributing to the overall inflation increase [1]

在会议上，官员们对就业形势可能恶化表示担忧，但大多数人认为，通胀率上升的风险是"这两种 风险中更大的一个"。 自那次会议以来，经济数据进一步强化了所谓"鸽派"的观点，即由于5月和6月的就业增长数据被下 调，他们主张降息。对经济数据的不同解读在随后的几周内使利率制定者意见分歧加剧。 上月曾投票反对按兵不动的美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼认为，官员们不应基于关税引发的价格上涨而做 出决策，因为此类价格上涨不太可能再次发生。 SHMET 网讯：根据北京时间周四凌晨公布的美联储政策会议纪要，尽管有两名官员反对并主张降 息，但美联储上月决定维持利率不变的决定仍获得广泛支持。 会议记录显示，"几乎所有"官员支持该决定，这意味着除两名反对的官员外，其余16名参与的官员 均表示支持。 这一决定是在白宫对美联储主席鲍威尔施加了强烈政治压力要求其降息之后做出的。官员们在权衡 进口商、零售商和消费者将如何分担进口关税上涨的成本后，决定将基准政策利率维持在4.25%至4.5% 的区间内。 会议纪要如往常一样在会议三周后发布，其中显示官员们对何时能够确信进口成本上升不会引发更 广泛、持续的物价上涨存在分歧。部分官员表示"未来数月将能获得大量信息 ...

新华财经北京8月21日电美国国债收益率周三（8月20日）延续跌势，盘中公布联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）7月29日至30日的会议纪要时短暂上行，跌幅有所收窄。 截至20日纽市尾盘，10年期美债收益率跌1.56个基点，报4.29%；2年期美债收益率跌0.23个基点，报 3.74%。其余期限美债收益率跌幅均在1个基点左右。 7月会议纪要显示，美联储同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.5%之间。委员们一致认为，尽 管净出口波动影响了数据，但近期指标表明，上半年经济活动增长有所放缓。通胀率仍然略高，经济前 景的不确定性仍然较高。委员们同时强调，在获得通胀持续向目标靠拢的明确证据前，不会贸然行动。 美联储主管监管的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼和理事克里斯托弗·沃勒在7月会议上投票支持将利率下调25个基 点，以防止就业市场进一步疲软。 美国劳工部在7月FOMC会议后两天公布的数据显示，美国7月就业增长大幅放缓，非农就业岗位仅增加 7.3万个，远低于市场预期的11万个。5月、6月非农新增就业人数从14.4万人、14.7万人，大幅修正至1.9 万人、1.4万人，合计修正人数减少25.8万人。失业率也从6月的4.1%小幅上 ...

2025.08.21 LPR连续3个月"按兵不动" 8月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新版LPR报价，1年期品种报3.0%，5年期以 上品种报3.5%，与上月持平 ，这是LPR连续3个月维持不变。综合市场分析来看，短期政策加码必要性 不强，8月两个期限品种的LPR报价保持不变符合市场预期。 【观国内】 国务院办公厅转发财政部《关于规范政府和社会资本合作存量项目建设和运营的指导意见》的通知。其 中提出，地方政府要根据经济社会发展需要、项目性质和财力状况，按照轻重缓急合理排序，优先实施 具有一定收益的项目，持续保障项目建成完工。 近日，财政部、税务总局发布关于育儿补贴有关个人所得税政策的公告，自2025年1月1日起施行。公告 称，对按照育儿补贴制度规定发放的育儿补贴免征个人所得税。公告提到，卫生健康部门与财政部门、 税务部门建立信息共享机制。县级卫生健康部门按规定为申领补贴的人员办理个人所得税免税申报。 市场监管总局20日对外发布《关于公用事业领域的反垄断指南（征求意见稿）》，面向社会公开征求意 见。指南征求意见稿指导公用事业经营者准确理解行为边界，针对不公平高价、拒绝交易、限定交易、 搭售、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Israel has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, aligning with market expectations, amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and a slight decrease in inflation rates over the past year [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The inflation rate in Israel for July was reported at 3.1%, which is slightly above the target upper limit, but forecasts suggest it will return to the target range in the coming months [3]. - The government has decided to raise the fiscal deficit ceiling to 5.2%, indicating potential challenges in managing economic stability [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The central bank highlighted various risks that could accelerate inflation or deviate from targets, including geopolitical developments, demand growth coupled with supply constraints, and deteriorating global trade conditions [3]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainty is expected to impact economic activity, with potential scenarios leading to increased supply constraints and slower economic recovery [3]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy - The Bank of Israel's Governor, Amir Yaron, expressed a desire to lower interest rates three times next year to reach 3.75%, although the timing for such reductions remains uncertain [4]. - A lower risk premium could lead to a rapid expansion in demand, and the appreciation of the shekel is anticipated to help reduce inflation [5]. Group 4: Investment Climate - The Israeli economy faces uncertainties due to market and technological investment conditions, exacerbated by U.S. tariffs, which pose risks to the economy [6]. - The reliance of Israel's technology sector on U.S. venture capital funding makes it particularly vulnerable to these uncertainties, affecting overall economic performance [6].