钛媒体App 1月27日消息，Amundi SA称，随着美国与其他国家日渐疏远，促使许多投资者减持美元资 产并转投黄金，金价有望继续上涨。这家欧洲最大资管公司的首席投资官Vincent Mortier表示，美国的 巨额赤字和美联储未来政策的不确定性，也是推动资金转向黄金、远离美元的原因之一。 "过去两年半 我们一直在配置黄金，我认为这种操作还可以继续，因为长期来看，黄金是抵御货币贬值的非常好的手 段，也是维持一些购买力的好方法，"他说。周一突破每盎司5,000美元大关后，金价周二迈向七连涨。 过去12个月，金价已累计飙升85%。Mortier表示，黄金的多数需求来自机构投资者，例如央行和主权财 富基金。该公司官网显示，Amundi管理的资产规模约为2.3万亿欧元（2.7万亿美元）。（广角观察） ...

来源：新浪基金 Ø 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 金价近期频创历史新高。伦敦现货黄金收于4，981美元/盎司（周环比8.3%），国内AU9999黄金收于 1，110元/克（周环比7.7%）。1月26日亚市早盘，国际现货和期货黄金价格均历史性突破5000美元/盎 司整数关口，为史上首次站上这一关键心理价位。 全球正在经历的传统秩序加速瓦解带来的剧烈阵痛，地缘政治动荡、财政信任危机与全球央行持续 的"去美元化"行动三重动力，共同推动了金价的飙涨。 日本国债的历史性抛售，暴露了全球对债务信用的深层次担忧。日本首相高市早苗上周的财政刺激言 论，引发市场对日本财政可持续性的深度担忧，导致日债遭遇历史性抛售，40年期国债收益率一度突破 4%。其本质是市场对发达经济体"财政主导"政策转向的恐慌。它不仅暴露了日本自身的债务困境，更 通过全球套息交易平仓的链条，将恐慌情绪传染至美债市场，引发全球债市共振。这加剧了投资者对所 有法币主权信用根基的疑虑，黄金的"信用对冲"属性被急剧放大。 全球央行购金趋势延续。在地缘与信用风险发酵的同时，全球央行的行动为黄金提供了坚实的需求侧支 撑和制度性叙事。波兰央行批准了150吨的大规模购金计划， ...

Core Insights - Recent surge in international gold prices, exceeding $5100 per ounce, has led to significant movements in the A-share precious metals sector and a concurrent rise in the banking and insurance sectors [1] - Despite the gold price increase, nearly 4500 stocks underperformed expectations, with trading volume decreasing, indicating a complex market sentiment [1] Group 1: Market Behavior - Investors often fall into the trap of making impulsive decisions based on market fluctuations and news, leading to suboptimal trading outcomes [3] - Emotional responses to market volatility can result in premature exits from positions, causing investors to miss out on potential gains [3] Group 2: Quantitative Analysis - Utilizing quantitative big data can help filter out market noise and identify significant trading signals, allowing for more informed decision-making [6] - Advanced quantitative models can separate different trading behaviors, revealing the true market state and enhancing understanding of market dynamics [6][10] Group 3: Strong Behavior Insights - "Strong behavior" in trading, such as "strong replenishment" and "strong liquidation," indicates significant capital movements and should be closely monitored for strategic insights [10][14] - These strong behaviors reflect planned capital actions and provide clearer operational rhythms, reducing reliance on emotional judgment and speculative news [10][14] Group 4: Data-Driven Decision Making - Transitioning from intuitive trading to data-driven analysis can help investors avoid emotional pitfalls and improve their trading strategies [14] - By leveraging quantitative data, investors can maintain a steady approach in volatile markets, gradually building positive feedback from their investments [14]

000 【TITUE C Lyon 999.9 999 9 000 ENNE t RING PP P e GDTS GOLD 980 3 999.9 Prin FINE GDD GOLD NET WE 105 2000 NET WT 2000 o the 4.886 2025年黄金涨幅超60%、白银近150%，创下历史最强年度表现；2026年开年至今，黄金涨超15%突破5100美元关口，白银涨幅更是飙升超40%，突破100美 元/盎司整数关口。 7 47 Mel 价格走势 近三月 | 近六月 | 近 ● Au9999 +47.78% 1144.45 1050.16 955.87 861.58 767.29 2025/07/28 2026/01 金银正经历史诗级牛市，开年更是暴涨逼空。 2026年更是美联储放松周期。当前美国经济呈现"冰火两重天"：一方面是传统经济没落带来的结构性萧条，另一方面则是新一轮科技革命推动的结构性繁 荣。为改善传统经济、支持新经济以及特朗普中期选举，美联储财政货币政策进入放松周期，甚至干预美联储货币政策独立性。 此外，白银兼具工业属性，额外受益需要于新能源需求爆发。白银是所有金属中导电 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have surpassed $5000 per ounce, marking a historic milestone and indicating a strong return of gold as a safe-haven asset amid significant changes in the global monetary system and geopolitical landscape [1][2][3] - The current gold bull market defies traditional logic, with prices rising despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a rare simultaneous increase in both gold and the US dollar, suggesting growing skepticism about the dollar's credibility [2][3] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical risks, particularly tensions between the US and Europe over Greenland and escalating conflicts in the Middle East, have driven investors to seek refuge in gold, resulting in record daily price increases [3] - The US federal debt has exceeded $38 trillion, with annual interest payments surpassing $1 trillion, leading to concerns about inflation and the independence of the Federal Reserve, prompting a global shift towards "de-dollarization" [3] Market Dynamics - There has been a significant acceleration in gold ETF inflows, with retail investors contributing to a collective buying momentum, while silver and platinum have seen even more substantial price increases, reflecting heightened speculative sentiment [3] - Some institutions predict that the $5000 mark is just the beginning, with Goldman Sachs raising its price target for gold to $5400 by the end of 2026, while cautioning about valuation risks as the gold market's total value relative to global M2 has reached a historic high [5] Changing Pricing Logic - The pricing logic for gold has fundamentally shifted from being primarily influenced by real interest rates to a re-evaluation of sovereign credit, as US Treasury bonds have become a source of risk, enhancing gold's "super-sovereign" status [5] - Future gold price movements will depend on three key variables: the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, ongoing geopolitical risks, and the evolution of the dollar's credit system [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are under pressure, and caution is advised. Stock index volatility centers are expected to gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held. Precious metal market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see. For various industrial and agricultural products, different trends and investment strategies are analyzed based on their respective fundamentals [6][10][14] Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 780 million yuan on the day. Due to the current low Treasury bond yields, the steady recovery of the Chinese economy, rising core inflation, and increased risk appetite, Treasury bond futures are expected to face pressure, and caution is needed [5][6] Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. With the increase in market sentiment and incremental funds, the stock index volatility center is expected to gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held [8][9][10] Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and the gold - buying behavior of central banks are favorable for the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the recent sharp rise in precious metals and the significant increase in speculative sentiment, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [12][13][14] Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke, and Ferroalloys) - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last trading day, they showed weak oscillations. The real estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the market is entering the demand off - season. Although the supply pressure is relieved, the inventory is slightly higher than last year. Prices may continue the weak oscillation, and investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16] - **Iron Ore**: Last trading day, it slightly corrected. The demand for iron ore is low, the supply situation is complex, and the port inventory is at a high level. The market supply - demand pattern has weakened, but there are signs of stabilizing. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [18] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Last trading day, they slightly rebounded. The production of coking coal is stable, and the demand for coke is weak. The futures have stopped falling and rebounded, but the rebound space may be limited. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [21] - **Ferroalloys**: Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron contracts fell. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost is fluctuating in a narrow range at a low level. The overall supply is still in excess, but the short - term supply may be reduced. After the price decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [23][24] Energy (including Crude Oil, Fuel Oil) - **Crude Oil**: Last trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly. Speculators increased their net long positions in crude oil futures and options, the number of active oil and gas rigs increased, and the US imposed new sanctions on Iran. Crude oil is expected to continue rising, and investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [25][26][27] - **Fuel Oil**: Last trading day, it rose significantly. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil inter - month inverse spread widened, and the market expected short - to - medium - term supply to tighten. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [28] Chemicals (including Polyolefins, Synthetic Rubber, Natural Rubber, PVC, Urea, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Bottle Chips, Soda Ash, Glass, Caustic Soda) - **Polyolefins**: The market is expected to be in a supply - demand tight situation this week. Due to rising crude oil prices and some production line overhauls, prices may continue to rise in the short term. The downstream demand is stable, and investors can look for long - position opportunities [29][30] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Last trading day, it rose. It was mainly supported by the rising price of butadiene and high device operating rates, but the weak downstream demand limited the increase. It is expected to show a strong - side oscillation, and attention should be paid to factors such as butadiene price trends and downstream demand recovery [31][32][33] - **Natural Rubber**: Last trading day, it rose. It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation in the short term. The overseas supply is shrinking, and the cost is supported, but the demand is expected to be weak, and the inventory is accumulating [34][35] - **PVC**: Last trading day, it rose. Although it is in the traditional demand off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong - side oscillation. In the medium term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. The cost is supported, but the inventory is increasing [36][37][39] - **Urea**: Last trading day, it rose slightly. The short - term price will maintain a strong - side oscillation, mainly driven by export demand and cost support. The supply is increasing, the demand of downstream products is changing, and the inventory is at a certain level [40][41] - **PX**: Last trading day, it rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are stable, the operating rate is declining, and the cost of crude oil provides support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors can participate in the low - level range [42][43] - **PTA**: Last trading day, it rose. The processing fee has rebounded to the average level of previous years, and the upward space may be limited. The supply has little change, the demand is seasonally decreasing, but the cost and market sentiment boost the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a slight inventory accumulation in January and February [44] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Last trading day, it rose. The supply is shrinking due to increased domestic and overseas device overhauls, but the port inventory is accumulating, and the downstream polyester is in seasonal maintenance. It is expected to have limited upward space in the short term, and investors should operate carefully [45][46] - **Short - Fiber**: Last trading day, it rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, the inventory is at a low level, and it is mainly trading based on the cost - side logic. It is expected to oscillate with the raw material price, and attention should be paid to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday stocking [47] - **Bottle Chips**: Last trading day, it rose. The processing fee has rebounded, the supply is expected to shrink during the Spring Festival, the export is increasing, and it is mainly driven by the cost side. It is expected to oscillate with the cost, and investors can participate cautiously on dips [48][49] - **Soda Ash**: Last trading day, it rose. The fundamental situation is loose, the price is stable for the time being, and it lacks substantial support in the short term. Caution is advised [50][51] - **Glass**: Last trading day, it rose. The fundamental situation is loose, the inventory is increasing, the market demand is weak, but the manufacturers' shipments are good due to pre - holiday stocking. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [52][53] - **Caustic Soda**: Last trading day, it rose. The winter seasonal characteristics are significant, with sufficient supply, high inventory, and weak demand. Affected by the alumina price fluctuation, the pre - holiday trading sentiment may fluctuate, but caution is still needed due to the unchanged fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches [54][55] Agricultural Products (including Pulp, Carbonate Lithium, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Nickel, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Apples, Pigs, Eggs, Corn & Starch, Logs) - **Pulp**: Last trading day, it fell. The inventory is accumulating, the spot trading is light, the downstream procurement is coming to an end, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but rational treatment is needed [56][57] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Last trading day, it fell. The supply is at a high level, the consumption is improving, the inventory is decreasing, and there is strong support for the price. However, the short - term volatility may increase, and risk control is necessary [58][59] - **Copper**: Last trading day, it rose. The US economic data is divided, the Fed's long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose, and the global copper concentrate supply is tight. However, the demand is suppressed by high prices, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term [60][61] - **Aluminum**: Last trading day, it rose slightly. The alumina market has an oversupply situation, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is inelastic. The high price suppresses the demand, and the inventory is accumulating rapidly. It is expected to adjust at a high level [62][63][64] - **Zinc**: Last trading day, it rose. The domestic refined zinc production is increasing, the demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the inventory is slightly increasing. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust [65][66] - **Lead**: Last trading day, it fell slightly. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, the production capacity of primary lead is restricted, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation [67][68] - **Tin**: Last trading day, it fell. The supply is generally tight due to the slow resumption of production in Wa State and the crackdown on illegal mines in Indonesia. The demand has certain resilience, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and risk control is needed [69] - **Nickel**: Last trading day, it fell. The global geopolitical situation is tense, the Indonesian nickel quota is reduced, and the cost is rising. However, the stainless - steel consumption is in the off - season, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation [70] - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Last trading day, they rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is accelerating, and the domestic soybean import is slowing down. The supply of soybean is relatively loose, the cost support is weakening, the demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil is slightly improving. Investors can look for long - position opportunities for soybean meal in the low - cost support range and consider exiting long positions for soybean oil on rallies [71][72] - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose, supported by the price of related oils and crude oil and favorable export data. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after the price correction [73][74][75] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed price fell. The Chinese tariff on Canadian rapeseed will be reduced. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is decreasing, and the rapeseed oil inventory is increasing. Investors can consider closing the spread - widening positions between soybean and rapeseed products [76][77] - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton futures oscillated. The external market cotton price fell. The USDA report is favorable for the market, and the medium - term external cotton price is expected to be strong. The domestic cotton harvest is good, but the inventory increase is lower than expected, and the future supply is expected to be tight. The downstream demand has resilience. The medium - to - long - term cotton price is expected to be strong, but the domestic market is under pressure in the short term. Investors can buy on dips after the price correction [78][79][80] - **Sugar**: The domestic and foreign sugar futures oscillated. India's sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic market will face the dual supply pressure of domestic new sugar and imported sugar. It is recommended to short on rallies [82][83][84] - **Apples**: The domestic apple futures oscillated weakly. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. The medium - to - long - term price is expected to be strong, and investors can go long on dips [86][87][88] - **Pigs**: The main contract fell. The supply is expected to be under pressure in the first quarter, and the market is waiting for the marginal change in consumption during the Spring Festival. It is recommended to wait and see [90][91] - **Eggs**: The main contract rose. The egg supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level in January, but the supply - side improvement is emerging. It is recommended to hold positive spreads [92] - **Corn & Starch**: The main contracts of corn and corn starch fell. The northern port inventory is low, the spot price is strong, and the domestic corn is basically in balance of production and demand. The demand for corn starch is slightly improving, but the supply is abundant, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to follow the corn market [93][94] - **Logs**: The main contract rose slightly. The supply is shrinking at a high level, the inventory is decreasing, the demand is entering the pre - holiday end, and the cost is rising. The overall supply - demand is tending to be loose, but the cost support is strengthening [95][96][97]

今天黄金市场在经历了昨日创历史新高后的大幅回落，目前进入剧烈波动后的高位盘整阶段。昨日伦敦金现货最高触及5111美元/盎司，但 随后大幅回撤，盘中一度跌破5000美元关口，波动性极高。 当前市场处于长期利多与短期超买风险的激烈博弈中。 利多因素 1. 特朗普对韩国加征关税（从15%上调至25%）等贸易紧张局势持续，以及对美联储独立性的担忧，削弱美元信用，推动资金寻求黄金作 为"终极货币"避险。 2. 各国央行（如波兰央行批准购入150吨黄金）为分散外储而持续购金，提供了坚实且"价格不敏感"的买盘支撑。中国央行也已连续14个月 增持黄金。 3. 美元指数近期疲软，降低了非美投资者购金成本。同时市场对美联储降息的预期，降低了持有黄金的机会成本。 利空因素 (引发短期震荡) 下方支撑： 日内强支撑：4950 - 4970美元（基于VC PMI框架的关键日线枢轴点区域）。 深度回调支撑：4860 - 4880美元（周线级别均线支撑与前期平台）。 技术信号解读 1. 金价年内涨幅已超17%，短期暴涨积累了巨大获利盘。昨日冲高回落的"倒V"走势，明确显示了技术性回调压力和市场脆弱性。 2. 上海期货交易所等机构近期频繁出 ...

黄金彻底疯狂了，人类历史上头一回涨破5100美元，今年还没一个月呢，它又涨了快20%，甚至昨天各 路黄金股票的ETF都是七八个点的往上涨。全球顶级投行们已经是杀红了眼，一个个拼了命的还在上调 黄金目标价，大摩说黄金要涨到5300美元，高盛说5500美元，美国银行说要涨到6000美元。 现在国内的品牌金店里面，1克黄金的饰品已经逼近1600元了，而去年这个时候才800多。 与此同时，跨境支付占比同步下滑。 美元在全球跨境支付中的占比从2015年的58%降至2025年的46%，大宗商品贸易领域更出现突破性变化 ——沙特完成首笔数字人民币石油结算，加拿大提升对华能源出口人民币结算比例，"石油美元"体系根 基松动。2023年底，巴西和阿根廷联合宣布双边贸易大幅减少美元结算，改用本币和人民币。智利、乌 拉圭等国也纷纷跟进，南美多国迅速掀起了区域货币合作的热潮。这些不仅能降低对美元的依赖，还加 速了全球金融格局的多极化。 那么，最近黄金为什么又开始大涨呢？ 直接原因就是美元，最近一周美元指数暴跌了2%，过去一年大跌了10%以上，这都引发了市场对美元 资产信心的动摇，而且很多国家还在抛售美债，又加速了美元贬值。比如说，印度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dutch International Group's interest rate strategists highlights the increasing government spending accompanied by fiscal risks, particularly for U.S. Treasury investors, emphasizing the need to be cautious about these risks [1] Group 1: Fiscal Risks - The latest deficit data from the U.S. shows some improvement, but average projections indicate that budget deficits will remain significantly above 6% in 2026 and 2027 [1] - The reliance on foreign investors to fund the U.S. current account deficit is a growing concern [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - There are no immediate signs of de-dollarization; however, geopolitical tensions and challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve could diminish the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries as a safe asset [1] - This situation contributes to maintaining high yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries and results in a steeper yield curve [1]

特朗普上任后不久，印度就成为了美国关税政策的重灾区。美国的出手并非毫无预兆。最初，美国对印度的强硬态度，源自印度继续从俄罗斯购买石油这一 举动，在美国看来，印度的做法是绕过制裁，挑战了美国的权威。2025年8月，美国正式将对印度特定产品的关税从原本的25%提高到50%，这些产品主要 包括印度的强项——信息技术、药品和纺织品。对于印度来说，出口到美国的产品占总出口的15%左右，关税一上调，印度企业的竞争力骤降，尤其是印度 的制药行业，曾凭借低价在全球市场抢占份额，但关税增加后，产品成本上升，美国本土药企趁机迎头赶上，而印度本地工厂的订单却急剧减少，导致了工 人失业等一系列连锁反应。根据印度商务部的数据，2025年下半年，印度对美国的出口同比下降了20%，而卢比对美元的汇率也一度跌到了85比1。面对这 种经济压力，印度政府最初还尝试通过谈判来化解危机，但特朗普政府并未作出任何让步。与此同时，印度的能源高度依赖进口，在俄乌冲突和中东局势的 不确定性下，原油价格波动剧烈，加之美元加息，印度不得不不断干预汇率，市场环境越来越艰难。美国的关税政策不仅是经济上的打击，还带有明显的政 治意图——试图逼迫印度在全球舞台上站队， ...