Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive time it has held rates steady [1] - The Fed's statement shifted from indicating steady economic expansion to acknowledging a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year [1] - There was a notable dissent in the Federal Open Market Committee, with two members voting against the decision to keep rates unchanged, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [1] Group 2 - The implementation of the "Build Back Better" tax and spending plan may increase the economic and debt costs of maintaining inflation targets, putting more pressure on the Fed's policy stance [2] - Fed Chair Powell tempered expectations for a rate cut in September, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and inflation, and stating that current rates are appropriate [3] - Concerns about the Fed's independence have arisen due to ongoing pressure from the White House, which could impact investor confidence in the U.S. economy and assets [3]

市场反应非常敏感。这些年，鲍威尔的每一个决策都和全球金融市场紧密相连，而当前的经济环境也正处于美联储关键的政策时刻——通胀和 经济增长之间的微妙平衡，决定了美联储未来一段时间的走向。尤其是在2024年大选即将到来之际，鲍威尔的话语不禁让人怀疑：是否白宫和 政客们在背后对美联储施加了某种压力？ 7月31日，鲍威尔在一场讲话中冒出一句：关于我卸任后是否留任理事，还没定数。从字面上看，这不过是他对未来未决事项的简短回应，但 对市场而言，这种措辞极为耐人寻味。毕竟，鲍威尔的主席任期还有半年才会结束，正常情况下，他不该在这个时候讨论卸任后事宜。为什么 突然提到这一点？ 你有没有想过，美联储主席鲍威尔突然提到卸任后是否继续担任理事的问题，究竟意味着什么？这话说得轻描淡写，但对市场来说，简直是晴 天霹雳。 美联储的独立性，从来都不是一纸空文。它需要通过不断的实践和外部环境的检验来维持。而鲍威尔的言辞，恰恰将这一敏感话题摆在了台面 上。如果美联储无法在未来几年内继续保持独立，是否意味着其政策会开始受到越来越多的政治化干预？美国大选在即，政客们的手能忍得住 不伸进美联储吗？ 无论未来鲍威尔最终选择如何，他的话语都为市场投下了不 ...

Global Macro - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate cut, aligning with market expectations [2] - The meeting saw two dissenting votes from Board members Bowman and Waller, who favored an immediate 25 basis point cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two members voted against the consensus [2] - The Fed's statement removed previous language indicating reduced uncertainty, emphasizing that economic uncertainty remains high, reflecting a more hawkish stance [2] - Powell's comments indicated that the Fed is committed to its independence despite external pressures, particularly from former President Trump, and that the impact of tariffs on the economy is still uncertain [2][4] Labor Market and Rate Cut Expectations - Powell dismissed the need for preemptive rate cuts to counter potential labor market downturns, asserting that the labor market remains robust [3] - The dissenting members expressed concerns about labor market vulnerabilities, but Powell maintained that current economic performance does not warrant a premature rate cut [3] - Following the meeting, the probability of a rate cut in September dropped from approximately 65% to around 45%, with expectations for one to two cuts by the end of 2025 [5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP showed a significant rebound in Q2 2025, indicating a recovery in economic activity [9] - The labor market remains strong, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1% [11] - Inflation indicators suggest a rising trend in commodity prices, with core PPI and CPI showing upward movements [15][16]

今年以来，美联储连续五次议息会议保持基准利率不变。 从判断9月降息，到预计12月可能降息……国际市场上对于美联储的降息预期不断推迟。 野村全 球宏观研究主管苏博文对经济观察报记者表示："由于通胀上升，我们认为美联储将非常谨慎，直 到12月才会降息，降息幅度将低于市场预期。" 威灵顿投资管理固定收益投资组合经理Brij Khurana表示，美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上释放 的鹰派立场令市场意外，直接的体现就是短期政府债券遭到抛售。鉴于美国总统特朗普已向美联储 施压要求降息，许多人预期鲍威尔会借此次会议为9月降息做铺垫，但显然这一期望落空了。 从判断9月降息，到预计12月可能降息……国际市场上对于美 联储的降息预期不断推迟。野村全球宏观研究主管苏博文对经 济观察报记者表示："由于通胀上升，我们认为美联储将非常 谨慎，直到12月才会降息，降息幅度将低于市场预期。" 作者： 胡艳明 封图：图虫创意 北京时间7月31日凌晨，美联储联邦公开市场委员会（The Federal Open Market Committee，下 称"FOMC"）宣布，将基准利率维持在4.25%—4.50%区间不变。 降息预期推迟 早在本次议息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The debate regarding whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September is intensifying, with differing perspectives on the conditions for such a decision [1] Group 1: Conditions for Rate Cuts - The conditions for the Federal Reserve to take action are maturing, as the market misunderstands that the Fed must wait for clear inflation data before cutting rates. Instead, as long as the impact of tariffs on inflation is predictable, the Fed can act sooner [2][4] - Current U.S. real interest rates at 1.63% are significantly above the natural rate of about 1%, indicating a restrictive monetary policy. Economic growth and the job market are showing signs of moderate weakening, with average GDP growth over the past two quarters at approximately 1.5% when excluding tariff-related fluctuations [2][4] Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming clearer, with recent agreements with multiple trade partners leading to a likely effective tax rate of 15%-16% post-August 1. This suggests a predictable transmission path for tariffs to inflation [4] - The anticipated one-time impact of tariffs is expected to manifest primarily in Q3 and Q4, with year-end CPI projected at 3.3% and core CPI at 3.4% [4] Group 3: Fed's Independence and Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates due to political pressure from President Trump, as it maintains a commitment to its independence and policy objectives of full employment and stable inflation [7][8] - Recent statements from Fed Chair Powell and other officials indicate a preference for a tightening stance, citing unresolved inflation risks from tariffs and a stable labor market as reasons not to lower rates [7][8]

国际政治的棋局，每一步都藏着算计与试探。 但这次白宫刚研究完罢免方案，特朗普却突然改口称"没这计划"。 为何态度180度大转弯？与财政部长贝森特和商务部长霍特尼克密不可分。 这俩人给特朗普算了笔账，强行换掉鲍威尔，不仅会引发股市崩盘，美联储其他理事还可能集体罢工，继续执行原有政策。 最近一周，华盛顿与北京的动向堪称戏剧性转折，特朗普突然收回解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的狠话，四架外国专机扎堆降落北京，中国财长却在美国"绕开"美 方高层。 面对这种情况，国际各界人士最大的疑问便是："中美何时开始谈判？" 特朗普对美联储的怨气并不是最近才出现的，从2018年炮轰鲍威尔疯狂加息，到今年威胁"炒人"，特朗普总想给美联储"上上课"。 更麻烦的是，特朗普的关税大招正让美国通胀高烧不退。若此时动美联储，外国投资者可能连夜抛售美债，导致利率飙升、企业借贷成本暴涨，这等于逼美 国经济跳悬崖。 特朗普的"服软"，也暴露了美联储独立性的脆弱性。美国司法部近期试图推翻一项90年的法律先例，该先例规定总统不能随意罢免美联储理事。若成功，未 来政府干预货币政策将畅通无阻。 但现实是这一举动不仅激怒了华尔街，连共和党内部也出现分歧。参议院金融委员 ...

北京时间7月31日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会货币政策会议宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.50%之间不变。面临特朗普政府不断要求降息的压力，这是美联储货币政策会议连续第五次 决定维持利率不变。 此外，委员会维持缩表节奏不变，美联储持有国债的缩表速度为50亿美元；持有MBS的缩表速度为350 亿美元。 由于本次会议未提供任何超预期的宽松信号，因此被市场解读为略偏鹰，会议期间美股和黄金走势整体 下行，美债利率和美元指数上行。从芝加哥期货交易所的美联储观察工具走势观察，市场似乎开始计入 9月不降息预期。 美联储内部分歧加剧，两票委提出异议 美联储公开市场委员会在公告中强调，尽管净出口波动继续影响数据，但近期指标显示上半年经济活动 放缓，失业率依然维持在低位，就业市场条件依然稳固，通胀仍处于较高水平。经济前景不确定性依然 处于高位，委员会致力于实现充分就业并让通胀回落至2%的目标。 美联储公开市场委员会12名具有投票权的成员中，9人投票支持维持利率不变。美联储副主席米歇尔·鲍 曼（Michelle W. Bowman）和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher J. Waller）均投票支持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, amid pressure from the Trump administration for rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Market Reaction - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged was interpreted as slightly hawkish, leading to a decline in U.S. stocks and gold, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index rose [1]. - The Fed's balance sheet reduction continues at a pace of $50 billion for Treasury securities and $35 billion for mortgage-backed securities [1]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements within the Federal Reserve - Among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee, 9 supported maintaining rates, while two members voted for a 25 basis point cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two members expressed dissent [2]. - The dissenting members were nominated by Trump, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve amid political pressures [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance on Independence - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed will not adjust its rate path due to political pressure, asserting that the central bank's goals are to achieve maximum employment and stable inflation [3]. - Powell's statements reflect a strong commitment to maintaining the Fed's independence, which is supported at the congressional level [3]. Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The Fed's statement highlighted increased economic risks and uncertainty, noting a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year and persistent high inflation [4]. - The Fed remains focused on balancing employment and inflation risks, with a cautious approach to future rate cuts depending on upcoming employment and inflation data [4]. Group 5: Future Projections - Analysts predict that the U.S. economy may face downward pressure in the third quarter, potentially leading to a 25 basis point rate cut in September [5]. - However, the impact of tariffs on inflation and subsequent fiscal measures may limit the likelihood of further rate cuts in the fourth quarter [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a bullish short-term trend for gold, with current trading around $3295.79 per ounce, reflecting a 0.37% increase [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, with two board members opposing the decision, while Powell and the majority favor a tight monetary policy due to ongoing inflation risks from tariffs and a stable labor market [3] - The upcoming economic data releases, including initial jobless claims and core PCE data, are anticipated to influence gold prices, with potential for further declines if the data is unfavorable [3] Group 2 - The monthly closing for gold shows a long upper shadow indicating a potential top, with current price action suggesting further downside may be possible [5] - Weekly analysis indicates that since the historical high of $3500, gold has been in a consolidation phase, currently finding short-term support at the middle band of the Bollinger Bands [5] - The daily trend shows that recent declines were influenced by U.S.-EU tariff negotiations, with a focus on the $3300 support level and potential for further bearish positioning if prices fail to recover [5]

Core Viewpoint - The debate over whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September is intensifying, with differing opinions on the conditions for such a move [1][8]. Group 1: Conditions for Rate Cut - Analysts from CICC believe that the conditions for the Federal Reserve to take action are maturing, arguing that a rate cut does not need to wait for a clear decline in inflation data [2][3]. - Current U.S. real interest rates at 1.63% are significantly higher than the natural rate of about 1%, indicating a restrictive monetary policy that could necessitate a rate cut [2][3]. - Economic growth and employment indicators are showing signs of moderate weakening, with the average growth rate over the past two quarters being around 1.5% when excluding tariff-related fluctuations [2][3]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming clearer, with recent agreements with multiple trade partners leading to a more predictable path for inflation [3][6]. - Effective tariff rates are expected to stabilize around 15%-16% after August 1, which will primarily affect inflation in the third and fourth quarters, with year-end CPI projected at 3.3% and core CPI at 3.4% [3][6]. - The misconception in the market is that the Federal Reserve must wait for inflation to decline before cutting rates, but if the tariff impact is understood as "one-time," the Fed could act sooner [3][6]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Independence - CICC analysts argue that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates due to political pressure from President Trump, emphasizing the Fed's commitment to its independence [8][9]. - Recent statements from Fed Chair Powell and other officials indicate a preference for maintaining a tightening stance, citing unresolved inflation risks from tariffs and a stable labor market [8][9]. - The Fed's decision-making process involves a committee of 12 members, making it difficult for any single political figure to significantly alter the policy direction [8][9].