| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周二，玉米先跌后涨，9 月合约日内下跌至 2310 的低位，其后价格企稳反弹，期 | | | | 价以十字星收盘。玉米加权合约在连续两个月减仓调整之后，持仓恢复增加，主 | | | | 力合约破位下行，吸引投机资金关注。现货市场方面，受进口玉米拍卖影响，国 | | | | 内多地玉米现货报价承压下行。周末东北玉米深加工收购价格有所下调，因进口 | | | | 玉米拍卖市场情绪略受影响，贸易商售粮心态有所松动，后续继续关注进口玉米 | | | | 的拍卖和成交情况。周末华北地区玉米价格整体偏弱运行，进口玉米拍卖持续投 | | | | 放，约每周投放 50 万吨左右，对市场心态有明显影响，在贸易商都有利润的情 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 况下，出货积极性增加，市场供应量较大，深加工企业玉米价格压价收购，价格 | | | | 偏弱。周末销区市场玉米价格继续坚挺运行。周五第二次进口玉米进行拍卖，市 | | | | 场购销情绪减弱，基本溢价 20-40 元/吨。产区贸易商远期看涨，但短期出货变 | | | | 现意愿增强，销区玉米高价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration plans to impose additional tariffs on imported copper and related products, with a 50% tariff on copper and a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals and their raw materials, aiming to boost domestic production and reduce import dependency [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The additional tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals are expected to be officially announced soon, with the copper tariffs likely to take effect between late July and early August [1][2]. - The tariffs will cover not only copper itself but also a wide range of copper-related products, including copper wire, scrap copper, and other derivatives [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement of the proposed copper tariffs, copper futures on the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) rose to $5.89 per pound, marking an increase of nearly 20% compared to levels before the tariff announcement [2]. Group 3: Domestic Production Goals - The Trump administration aims to increase domestic copper production by 70% by 2035, reducing import reliance from 45% to 30% [3]. - The administration is advancing the "Resolution Copper Mine" development plan in Arizona, which has faced opposition from local indigenous groups [3]. Group 4: Strategic Importance of Copper - Copper is considered a critical material for national security, ranking second in usage among various materials by the U.S. Department of Defense, and is essential for infrastructure and electric vehicles [2][3].

【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,644 | 2.10% | 8,642 | -0.02% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,946 | 0.66% | 7,916 | -0.38% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,598 | 0.52% | 9,548 | -0.52% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,149 | 1.94% | 4,174 | 0.63% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 53.97 | 0.20% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 726,022 | 280346 | 518,456 | 70,433 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 310,808 | 2,265 | 526,424 | 4,511 | | | 菜油主力 | 手 ...

2025年07月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观情绪推涨，基本面高度有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | 2 | | 豆粕：天气良好、美豆收跌，连粕或偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡调整 | 6 | | 白糖：巴西出口增加 | 8 | | 棉花：关注美国关税政策及影响 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：关注旺季现货兑现情况 | 11 | | 生猪：关注新一轮投机兑现情绪 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 9 日 棕榈油：宏观情绪推涨，基本面高度有限 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,644 | ...

Economic Overview - Global economic growth momentum is weakening, influenced by trade frictions, monetary policy paths, and geopolitical factors, leading to increased volatility in economic and financial markets[1] - Geopolitical risks remain high, with ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East exacerbating global economic uncertainty[1] - Emerging markets are experiencing some relief in sovereign credit risk due to a global trend towards lower interest rates[1] Impact of Tariffs - Trump's tariff policy, implemented on April 2, is expected to worsen global trade imbalances and hinder economic growth, potentially harming the U.S. economy and increasing "stagflation" risks[2] - The tariffs are likely to raise inflation expectations, which may restrict the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates in the short term[2] - The tariff impacts could lead to increased uncertainty in global trade and capital markets, posing downward risks to global sovereign credit levels[2] Sovereign Credit Rating Actions - Credit rating downgrades occurred for France, Germany, and Thailand due to political instability and economic challenges, with France's rating adjusted from AAg to AA-g[3][5] - Positive adjustments were made for Turkey, Serbia, Egypt, and Sri Lanka, reflecting improved economic conditions and investor confidence, with Turkey's rating upgraded from BB-g to BBg[3][5] - Belgium's credit outlook was revised to negative due to slowing economic growth and rising fiscal deficits, while the ratings for the UAE and the UK were maintained[3][5] Specific Country Insights - France faces increasing fiscal deficits and debt issues due to political discord, which could elevate borrowing costs[8] - Germany's economic outlook is dimmed by a slight recession influenced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, alongside declining political stability affecting policy effectiveness[12] - Egypt's credit rating was upgraded due to significant foreign investment inflows and improved fiscal liquidity, stemming from the Ras El-Hekma agreement and IMF loans[19][20]

Group 1 - The core message of the article highlights the aggressive tariff measures imposed by the Trump administration on 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, with rates as high as 40% for some nations [1][3][5] - The article indicates that the U.S. is leveraging its tariff threats to negotiate better terms, particularly targeting countries perceived as weaker or more vulnerable [3][5][7] - Japan and South Korea, despite being developed nations, are under significant pressure in trade negotiations, reflecting Trump's strategy of exploiting their reluctance to confront the U.S. directly [5][7] Group 2 - The article notes that major trade powers like China, the EU, and India have not received similar tariff threats, suggesting that their negotiations with the U.S. are proceeding more favorably [5][7] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's comments about the progress in U.S.-China negotiations reveal a sense of urgency in stabilizing trade relations, particularly concerning critical supplies like rare earth elements [9][11] - The article emphasizes that the ongoing tariff threats may be a precursor to larger economic tensions, with the potential for significant repercussions in the global trade landscape [7][9]

Group 1 - The U.S. is set to impose new tariffs on exports from various countries starting August 1, with specific rates to be communicated in letters sent out on July 4 [1] - The deadline for countries to negotiate trade agreements with the U.S. is July 9, after which tariffs will be directly set by the U.S. if no agreement is reached [1] - The U.S. tariff policy is expected to continue beyond Trump's presidency, with businesses advised to prepare for a long-term increase in export costs to the U.S. [3] Group 2 - The EU, Japan, and South Korea have expressed strong opposition to the U.S. tariffs, with significant potential losses for Japanese and European car manufacturers [5] - Japan's automotive industry could face tariffs as high as 25%, while European companies could incur losses exceeding €210 billion [5] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with Japan and other U.S. allies seeking greater strategic autonomy and cooperation among East Asian nations [3][8] Group 3 - Trump's comments on Japan's rice supply issues have sparked significant media attention in Japan, highlighting the sensitivity of agricultural trade in the country [6] - Japan's government has firmly stated it will not compromise its agricultural interests in trade negotiations with the U.S. [6] - The dynamics between the U.S. and its East Asian allies are evolving, with countries like South Korea and Japan increasingly asserting their independence from U.S. influence [8]

对于美国总统特朗普称将从8月1日起对来自印尼的进口产品征收32%的关税，印尼经济专家表示，美国 加征关税是贸易保护主义行为，将给全球多个行业带来影响。印度尼西亚经济改革中心执行董事穆罕默 德.费萨尔：美国和特朗普仍然坚持他们的要求，坚持贸易准入或市场准入，并且还在他们的市场上， 设置了一些贸易壁垒，这确实是保护主义。在全球范围内显然有很多行业都会受到影响，从服装、纺织 和鞋类等劳动密集型行业，到其他高附加值行业，例如电动汽车。当然，对印尼来说也是如此，这将进 一步给印尼的服装行业带来压力。印尼专家还表示，面对美国加征关税的压力，印尼需要进一步拓展国 内市场，并加大与其他贸易伙伴的合作。(央视新闻) ...

Group 1 - Recent trade tensions between China and Europe have escalated, with Europe imposing restrictions on Chinese goods and China initiating anti-dumping investigations against European products, particularly targeting brandy [1][2][14] - France has expressed concerns over the increasing market share of Chinese goods, which is nearing 50%, warning that without protective measures, local factories may face closure [5][14] - The European Union's internal divisions are evident, with economic sectors favoring cooperation with China while political elites lean towards a strategy of containment influenced by the United States [17][24] Group 2 - China's response to the EU's anti-dumping measures is strategic, aiming to protect its market while adhering to WTO rules, indicating that EU brandy has been found to be dumped and poses a threat to Chinese industries [14][26] - The ongoing trade disputes are characterized by precise retaliatory measures from China, which are seen as systematic and mature, contrasting with previous passive responses [22] - The geopolitical context, including the influence of the US and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, complicates the trade relationship, leading to increased tensions and a call for a new mutual understanding [25][28]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold prices have declined due to easing tensions in the Middle East, with London spot gold closing at $3,337 per ounce (down 1.9% week-on-week) and domestic AU9999 gold at 772 yuan per gram (down 0.9% week-on-week) [1] - The market is closely monitoring the risk of renewed U.S. tariffs, which could boost safe-haven demand for gold if significantly increased [1] - The U.S. "Great Beautiful" Act has been signed, which will increase federal debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, maintaining a loose fiscal stance [1] Group 2: U.S. Employment Data and Economic Outlook - U.S. unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls adding 147,000 jobs, exceeding the forecast of 106,000 [2] - Despite short-term resilience in employment data, the job creation structure is unhealthy, heavily reliant on government and education sectors, while small business hiring remains low [2] - The outlook suggests potential for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, supported by expectations of weakening employment and rising unemployment [2] Group 3: Future Signals for Gold ETFs - Key signals to watch for gold ETFs include trade negotiations and tariff developments, as well as the People's Bank of China's gold purchasing activities [2]