Core Points - Stephen Miran has been confirmed as a Federal Reserve Board member, allowing him to participate in the upcoming FOMC meeting and vote on interest rate decisions [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, but Miran's presence may shift the voting dynamics towards a potential 50 basis point cut, aligning with the White House's calls for more aggressive monetary easing [1][3] - Miran's appointment raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially given the Trump administration's pressure for significant monetary policy loosening [3] Summary by Sections Appointment and Confirmation - Miran's confirmation by the Senate allows him to join the FOMC meeting starting Tuesday, potentially setting a record for the fastest transition from confirmation to participation in a rate-setting meeting [2] - He fills the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler, whose term ended in August, and will serve until January 2026 [1] Market Expectations and Policy Implications - The prevailing expectation is a 25 basis point rate cut, but Miran and other officials like Christopher Waller may advocate for a more substantial cut, possibly 50 basis points [1][3] - Trump's public statements indicate a desire for rates to be lowered to 1%, a level typically seen only during economic crises [3] Concerns Over Independence - Miran's ties to Trump and the administration's influence raise alarms about the Federal Reserve's independence, with critics labeling him as a potential "mouthpiece" for Trump's economic agenda [3] - Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer expressed opposition to Miran's nomination, citing concerns for Americans affected by Trump's economic policies [3] Ongoing Legal Battles - Concurrently, a legal battle is unfolding regarding another Fed board member, Lisa Cook, who was dismissed by Trump but is contesting the allegations against her [5] - This situation adds a layer of political complexity to the FOMC meeting, making it not just an economic decision but also a matter of the Fed's independence and future personnel dynamics [5]

A U.S. appeals court declined on Monday to allow Donald Trump to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook - the first time a president has pursued such action since the central bank's founding in 1913 - in the latest step in a legal battle that threatens the Fed's longstanding independence. ...

布拉德表示："如果我们为成功做好了准备，我愿意接受这份工作……成功意味着我们要捍卫美元作为 储备货币的地位，保持低且稳定的通胀，并保护美联储的独立性。如果方向是这样，那么我会非常有兴 趣。" 目前，特朗普政府目前正在面试多位候选人，以接替任期将于明年5月结束的美联储主席鲍威尔。鲍威 尔正接近其第二个任期的尾声，但根据规定，他仍可继续担任理事直至2028年。 前圣路易斯联储主席布拉德周一表示，他上周与美国财政部长贝森特就出任美联储主席一职进行了交 流，并表示如果条件合适，他对这一职位非常感兴趣。 布拉德透露："我上周三和财政部长及其团队谈过，不仅涉及美联储主席职位，也涉及其他一些问 题。"布拉德目前担任普渡大学Mitch Daniels商学院院长，曾在2008年至2023年期间领导圣路易斯联 储。 在圣路易斯联储任职期间，布拉德以主张灵活应对经济变化而闻名，他愿意根据形势快速调整政策立 场。 布拉德强调："美联储的独立性至关重要，把政治排除在央行之外，才能确保良好的经济和金融结果。" 此外，布拉德对关税-通胀暂时论表示认同，并倾向支持陷入解雇风波的美联储理事库克。 他解释称，进口在美国经济中整体占比有限，因此关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors raises concerns about the independence of the Fed, particularly in light of President Trump's pressure to cut interest rates [3][5]. Group 1: Nomination Process - A procedural vote on Miran's nomination is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET, followed by a final confirmation vote at around 8 p.m. [2] - If confirmed, Miran plans to take an unpaid leave from his current role as chair of the White House's Council of Economic Advisors [2]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Fed Independence - Markets anticipate the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time since December 2024, but the extent of the cuts remains uncertain [3]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell has resisted Trump's pressure but indicated that economic conditions may justify rate cuts at the upcoming meeting [4]. - Critics argue that Miran's appointment could influence the committee's decisions and undermine the Fed's independence from the White House [5]. Group 3: Term and Resignation - Miran was nominated to fill the seat vacated by Governor Adriana Kugler, who resigned in August, and would serve until January 31, when Kugler's term was set to expire [6]. - Miran stated that if he were to be nominated and confirmed for a longer term, he would resign from his current position [6].

来源：滚动播报 布拉德表示美联储必须捍卫美元地位、维持低通胀并维护自身独立性。 ...

美联储本月的议息会议结果将在北京时间9月18日凌晨2点公布。 《闪评》邀请中国人民大学经济学院教授王晋斌为您解读： 当地时间14日，美国总统特朗普表示，他预计美联储将在会议上宣布"大幅降息"。同一天，特朗普向联 邦上诉法院提出最后请求，要求允许其解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克。美联储货币政策会议在即，但谁能 参会还不确定，美联储还能保持独立性吗？美国此次降息幅度会有多大？ 采访 | 张晗 编辑 | 汪一鸣 后期 | 汪一鸣 签审 | 杨琼 监制 | 蔡耀远 ...

Summary of J.P. Morgan Metals Weekly Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **gold** market, highlighting its recent performance and future expectations amid changing economic conditions and Federal Reserve policies. Key Points and Arguments Gold Market Dynamics - **Gold Price Movement**: Gold has broken higher, reaching approximately **$3,650/oz** as of early September 2025, marking a **~6% rally month-to-date** after coiling during the summer [2][4]. - **Investor Demand**: The primary catalyst for gold's price increase is now investor demand, particularly as the market anticipates a **Fed cutting cycle**. This is expected to create a favorable environment for gold inflows [2][19]. - **Future Price Forecasts**: J.P. Morgan forecasts gold prices to average **$3,800/oz in 4Q25** and to exceed **$4,000/oz in 1Q26**, a quarter earlier than previous expectations [5][19]. Federal Reserve Influence - **Rate Cuts Expected**: Economists predict a **25 basis point (bp) cut** in the upcoming Fed meeting, with expectations for three consecutive cuts thereafter. This dovish outlook is expected to support gold prices [2][18]. - **Historical Performance**: Historically, gold has rallied into and following Fed cuts, with double-digit cumulative returns observed over the nine months after the onset of recent Fed cutting cycles [2][19]. Technical Analysis - **Support Levels**: Technical indicators suggest that gold's breakout from previous resistance levels opens potential upside towards **$3,780-$3,880/oz** [30]. - **Silver Market**: In contrast, silver is expected to face medium-term consolidation, with significant resistance around **$42/oz** [30][54]. Risks and Considerations - **Central Bank Demand**: While central bank buying has moderated, it remains a structural support for gold prices. Central bank demand was **166.5 tonnes in 2Q25**, the lowest since 2Q22 [26]. - **Potential Erosion of Fed Independence**: Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve could lead to unanchored inflation expectations, potentially pushing gold prices above **$5,000/oz** [31][36]. - **Market Sensitivity**: The gold market is relatively small and liquid, making it susceptible to significant price changes from modest shifts in demand. A rotation of just **0.5% of foreign US asset holdings** into gold could drive prices to **$6,000/oz** [42][47]. Conclusion - J.P. Morgan maintains a bullish outlook on gold, driven by investor demand and favorable macroeconomic conditions. The anticipated Fed rate cuts and ongoing concerns about inflation and fiscal sustainability are expected to support gold prices in the near term [19][31]. Additional Important Insights - **ETF Inflows**: Recent weeks have seen strong inflows into gold ETFs, with nearly **72 tonnes** added, equivalent to around **$8 billion**, marking the largest weekly inflows since mid-April [6][11]. - **Labor Market Concerns**: Weakness in the labor market could further skew risks towards more aggressive Fed easing, enhancing the bullish case for gold [18][19]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the current state and future expectations of the gold market, emphasizing the interplay between investor sentiment, Federal Reserve policies, and macroeconomic factors.

Group 1: Key Points on Trump's Interference with the Federal Reserve - Trump's interference in the Federal Reserve's independence is primarily through three methods: nominating a compliant Fed Chair, restructuring the Board of Governors, and intervening in the appointment of regional Fed presidents[1] - The new Fed Chair is expected to be nominated in November 2025 and take office in May 2026, potentially leading to a more dovish monetary policy stance[1] - With the new appointments, 4 out of 7 Fed governors may align with Trump's views, increasing his influence over monetary policy decisions[1] Group 2: Market Implications - The anticipated intervention could result in the Fed lowering interest rates more than the current market pricing of 3 cuts, potentially bringing the policy rate below the neutral level of 3%[1] - This shift may transition the U.S. economy from a soft landing to moderate expansion, impacting macroeconomic conditions positively[1] - The weakening of dollar interest rate expectations and increased credit risk could lead to lower 2-year Treasury yields and a declining dollar index[1] Group 3: Risks and Concerns - Potential risks include Trump's re-encounter with assassination attempts, resistance from existing Fed officials against his directives, and possible Republican losses in the midterm elections[1] - The independence of the Fed could be challenged, leading to increased uncertainty in monetary policy and affecting investor confidence in U.S. dollar assets[1]

Group 1: Structure of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is an independent agency of the federal government, supervised by Congress but making independent decisions[1] - It consists of three core entities: the Board of Governors, 12 Reserve Banks, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)[1][11] - The Board of Governors has 7 members, appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate, with a term of 14 years[14] Group 2: Decision-Making Mechanism - The Board of Governors makes decisions by simple majority, while certain actions require an absolute majority[2] - The FOMC consists of 12 members, and decisions are also made by simple majority[2][27] - Historical data shows that from 1936 to July 2023, FOMC meetings had dissenting votes in 36% of the cases, with a maximum of 5 dissenting votes recorded[4][34] Group 3: Impact of the Federal Reserve Chair - The actual influence of the Federal Reserve Chair is significantly greater than their nominal voting power[3] - The Chair plays a crucial role in leading discussions, market communication, and maintaining the credibility and independence of the Federal Reserve[3][28] Group 4: Trump's Influence on the Federal Reserve - Trump's actions, including calls for rate cuts and attempts to appoint new members, have raised questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve[5][32] - Dismissing a member like Cook could undermine the Federal Reserve's independence, potentially leading to increased long-term Treasury yields and market volatility[7][36] - The White House still recognizes the value of the Federal Reserve's independence, as indicated by statements from key economic advisors[6][35]

美国联邦住房金融署署长比尔·普尔特8月公开指认库克曾同时把两处房产申报为其"主要住宅"以获取更优惠贷款利率，并向司法部提交相关刑事指控。特朗 普8月25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解除库克职务。库克否认有任何不当行为，并于8月28日提起诉讼。 华盛顿特区联邦地区法院法官本月9日裁定暂停解雇决定。特朗普政府11日向一家联邦巡回上诉法院提出紧急申请，要求该法院在"15日下班前"推翻下级法 院就库克一案所作裁决。 据美国媒体报道，库克曾在一份贷款估算文件中把上述两处房产中一处描述为"度假屋"，而非主要住宅。在美联社获取的另一份文件中，库克把这处房产称 为"第二套房"。美国司法部在最新提交的诉讼文件中未对这一关键信息作出回应。 新华社北京9月15日电 美国特朗普政府14日再次向联邦上诉法院提出请求，要求允许其解雇美国联邦储备委员会理事莉萨·库克。 美国司法部在最新提交的法律文件中称，库克给出的留任理由"毫无依据"。库克的律师13日在一份文件中说，政府提供的解雇理由"不充分"，若允许总统在 无正当理由情况下随意罢免理事，将危及美国经济稳定和美联储独立性。 这是2022年4月20日在美国华盛顿拍摄的美联储大楼。新华社记者 ...