Group 1: FOMC Structure and Independence - The FOMC consists of 7 governors and 5 regional Fed presidents, shaping monetary policy and influencing global capital prices[1] - The upcoming 2026 FOMC personnel changes will be a critical turning point for policy direction and institutional independence[2] - Current governors include three "core dependent" members appointed by Trump, while three others maintain traditional independence, with Powell in a balancing role[2] Group 2: Political Influence and Future Projections - Trump's administration has challenged the independence of the Fed, exerting pressure on Powell and attempting to influence board appointments[1] - The report predicts two interest rate cuts in 2026, with the federal funds rate expected to fall to 3%-3.25%[3] - The Fed is likely to enter a phase of "political rate cuts," increasing uncertainty in decision-making frameworks[2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 1.70% year-on-year[5] - Retail sales have increased by 2.90% year-on-year, while exports have declined by 1.10% year-on-year[5] - M2 money supply growth stands at 8.21%[5] Group 4: Risks and Market Dynamics - Risks include potential turmoil in overseas markets and uncertainties in domestic policy execution[4] - The Fed's decision-making may face increased internal divisions, complicating consensus-building among committee members[2]

这篇文章讲的是，特朗普拟换美联储主席引震动，中国连续 13 月增持黄金，美债遭持续减持，全球金融格局生变。 12月的华尔街刚盼来两天安稳日子，特朗普一句话就把天给捅破了。 12月2日的白宫内阁会上，他当着财政部长和经济顾问的面放话：2026年初，新的美联储主席人选就会官宣。 这话刚出白宫大门，金融市场立刻给出反应。据新华网数据，美元指数当天出现0.06%的小幅下跌。 国际金价虽已长期处于高位（12月8日纽约金价已达4207.85美元/盎司），但受消息刺激，12月2日纽约商品交易所黄金期价出现短期波动，最终以4220.8美 元收盘，较前一日下跌1.26%，主要是部分投资者借机获利了结。 别骂市场太敏感，实在是这事儿太要命，圈内早就传开了，特朗普心里的第一人选，是白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特，他的铁杆亲信。 要是这位"自己人"真坐上美联储主席的位置，那号称"全球央行"的美联储，可能就再也硬不起来了。 哈塞特这人，不是美联储体系里熬出来的老油条，而是跟着特朗普打了四年经济仗的"自己人"。 美联储能撑这么多年，靠的就是"独立性"三个字，不用看白宫脸色，只盯着2%的通胀目标和就业数据，这样美元才有信用。 可哈塞特 ...

来源：金十数据 周一，美国最高法院的一场辩论可能会为美联储理事库克（Lisa Cook）的命运提供关键线索，特朗普 一直试图解雇她，以加强对美联储的控制。 围绕特朗普试图罢免联邦贸易委员会（FTC）民主党人斯劳特（Rebecca Kelly Slaughter）的冲突，将是 库克一案的前奏。这两个案件将严峻考验最高法院在5月份似乎为美联储设立的"例外条款"——该条款 旨在保护美联储官员免受美国总统随心所欲的解雇。 最高法院曾称美联储与其他独立机构不同，是一个"结构独特、准私人的实体"。 即便不涉及美联储，FTC案本身也极具爆炸性。美国法院的保守派绝对多数正在考虑推翻1935年的一项 裁决，该裁决允许国会设立独立机构并使其领导人免受总统控制。一旦推翻这一裁决，风暴将席卷特朗 普试图清洗的其他政府机构官员，涉及监管劳资关系、消费品安全、交通安全和就业歧视等领域。 争议双方都认为这种区分毫无意义，因为美联储也监管银行——这一职责属于行政部门职能的传统定 义。 "他们在发布和执行法规。他们在处以罚款，"新公民自由联盟（New Civil Liberties Alliance）的律师休 伯特（Jacob Huebert ...

据彭博周一报道，美国最高法院今日就特朗普解除联邦贸易委员会官员的案件展开辩论，这场听证将为 美联储理事库克(Lisa Cook)的命运提供关键线索。这两起案件将检验最高法院去年5月为美联储设立 的"特殊保护条款"能否继续有效，该条款旨在防止总统随意解雇美联储官员。 对于美联储而言，此案关乎其独立性这一经济管理的核心支柱。联邦法律规定，理事只能因"正当理 由"被免职，这一条款确保了货币政策制定者无需担心因总统不满而被解职。特朗普今年多次批评美联 储降息速度过慢，并暗示有意解雇主席鲍威尔。若最高法院裁定支持特朗普，可能从根本上削弱央行独 立性。 此案的影响不限于美联储。法院的保守派多数正考虑推翻1935年的判例，该判例允许国会设立独立机构 并保护其领导人免受总统控制。这一裁决还将影响特朗普试图从劳工关系、消费品安全、交通安全和就 业歧视等多个政府机构解职的官员。 特朗普政府的双线攻击策略 特朗普政府在法律文件中试图绕开美联储地位问题。美国司法部副部长D. John Sauer表示，法官无需在 联邦贸易委员会案中解决美联储的地位问题，但补充称政府"未承认美联储理事会免职保护条款的合宪 性"。 即便法院保留美联储的" ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to have a leadership change, with Kevin Hassett, a close ally of Trump, as the likely candidate for the next chairman [3][4] - Hassett has been a strong supporter of Trump's economic policies, advocating for interest rate cuts and tax reductions for the wealthy, which could shift the Fed's policy direction significantly [4][18] - Current Chairman Jerome Powell has faced criticism from Trump, primarily due to disagreements over interest rate cuts, leading to speculation about Powell's potential replacement [6][21] Group 2 - The selection criteria for the new chairman, as indicated by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, focus less on qualifications and more on alignment with his views on the Fed's independence [8] - Mnuchin's recent comments suggest a desire to reform the Fed, arguing that its interventions have contributed to wealth inequality and that it should focus on its core tasks [12][14] - If Hassett assumes the role, short-term economic indicators may improve due to tax cuts and interest rate reductions, but long-term risks include increased wealth concentration and potential financial instability [18][19] Group 3 - The Fed's independence is at risk of being compromised, as political influences may dictate its decisions, leading to market volatility and a lack of policy continuity [19][21] - The ongoing leadership transition at the Fed is likely to have significant implications not only for the U.S. economy but also for the global economic landscape [21]

Group 1 - The core message revolves around the political maneuvering within the U.S. government regarding the selection of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, with implications for economic policy direction [2][30] - The current Treasury Secretary, Bessent, will oversee the selection process for the new Fed Chair, using his own academic paper as a standard for evaluation, which critiques the Fed's broad regulatory role [4][6] - Bessent's paper argues that unconventional monetary policies have failed to stimulate the economy and have disrupted resource allocation, suggesting a shift towards a more neoliberal approach [6][20] Group 2 - The potential successor to the current Fed Chair, Powell, is likely to be Kevin Hassett, who aligns with Trump's economic policies, particularly in supporting tax cuts and interest rate reductions [15][28] - The proposed shift in Fed policy could lead to increased financial risks and a decline in the independence of the Fed, affecting global trust in U.S. dollar assets [25][27] - The ongoing political and economic battle highlights the tension between short-term political goals and the need for stable economic policy that serves broader societal interests [30][31]

特朗普最近宣布，他已经决定了下一任美联储主席的人选，并将在2026年年初正式公布。虽然特朗普没有直接透露具体人选，但根据彭博社的报道，现任白 宫经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特是他心目中的人选。此前，关于美联储新主席的讨论非常热烈，财长贝森特、现任美联储理事沃勒和米兰等人都是热门人 选，但最终，特朗普选择了哈塞特，这个人被认为是最听话的。这个决定意味着，特朗普将进一步掌控美联储，成为继罗斯福之后拥有最大权力的美国总 统。然而，这对于美联储来说无疑是一次灾难性的打击，它的独立性将被完全削弱，全球经济也将因此发生深刻的变革。 哈塞特的个人履历看起来非常符合美联储主席的要求。他拥有宾夕法尼亚大学经济学博士学位，曾在美联储担任高级经济学家，还曾在哥伦比亚大学商学院 担任副教授，并且三次担任美国总统竞选的经济顾问，是经济界的知名人物。然而，这位看似坚定的自由主义经济学家，实际上是一个机会主义者，为了迎 合当权者，他毫不犹豫地背离自己的经济信仰。2011年，当时特朗普只是一个房地产大亨，还没有那么强势，他曾表示如果自己当选总统，就会对中国加税 25%。哈塞特当时批评特朗普的这一主张简直是不可理喻。然而，特朗普当选后，哈塞特迅速 ...

特朗普的"忠犬"即将上位，百年美联储将迎来大变局。 特朗普最近宣布，他已经决定了下一任美联储主席的人选，将于2026年年初公布。 尽管特朗普没有指名道姓，但据彭博社打探的消息，这个人就是现任白宫经济委员会主任的凯文·哈塞特。 之前媒体吵得沸沸扬扬，包括美国财长贝森特，现任美联储理事沃勒和米兰，都是热门人选，但最后，特朗普还是选择了最听话的那个。 这意味着，特朗普将正式接管美联储，他将成为罗斯福之后权力最大的美国总统，但对美联储来说，却无异于脑死亡，这个百年机构将彻底丧失独立性，全 球经济也将因此发生深刻的变革。 | 【环球时报驻美国特约记者 丁亮 环球时报记者 杜天琦】"我知道我要选谁了， | 环 | | --- | --- | | 没错。"当地时间11月30日，美国总统特朗普表示，他已确定下一任美联储主席人 | 法国 | | 选。特朗普在返回华盛顿的总统专机"空军一号"上告诉记者这一消息，但并未透露具 | 首届: | | 体人选，只是表示"我们即将宣布这一决定。"负责监督遴选过程的美国财政部长贝森 | 乌称 | | 特上周表示，特朗普可能在12月25日前宣布提名。 | 印度! | 这将会产生多大的影响呢？我 ...

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the Federal Reserve Chair position is causing collective anxiety on Wall Street, particularly regarding the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett, who is seen as a candidate aligned with President Trump, raising concerns about political influence over monetary policy [1][11]. Group 1: Candidate Concerns - Kevin Hassett has emerged as a leading candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair, with his chances increasing as the list of candidates narrows from 11 to 2 [1]. - Trump's public endorsement of Hassett has heightened market fears, as investors worry that Hassett may implement aggressive rate cuts to align with presidential preferences, potentially leading to financial instability [1][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Bond investors express significant concern that Hassett may prioritize political considerations over inflation control, even in the face of inflation exceeding the 2% target [5]. - The fear of "politics overriding inflation" has become a central issue, with comparisons drawn to the market turmoil caused by former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss's radical tax cuts [6]. Group 3: Independence of the Federal Reserve - There is growing apprehension regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, with market participants perceiving Hassett as a puppet of Trump [8]. - Concerns about the potential erosion of central bank independence have been echoed by international figures, including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who warned that political interference could pose serious threats to the global economy [9]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The debate surrounding Hassett's nomination transcends individual qualifications, focusing instead on the broader implications for the Federal Reserve's independence and the potential for political interference in monetary policy [11]. - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the nomination process is likely to keep global financial markets in a state of anxiety until a new chair is appointed in May [11].

都让这场降息大戏充满了变数，究竟是什么支撑起市场对降息的强烈预期？看似板上钉钉的决策背后，又暗藏着哪些未被忽视的风险？ 在美联储的政策决策框架中，劳动力市场与通胀数据向来是两大核心锚点，如今，前者的降温迹象已成为推动降息的最关键力量。 此前因美国政府长期停摆导致数据发布延迟，美联储一度陷入数据迷雾，但随着9月就业报告等关键数据的补发，劳动力市场的疲软态势逐渐清晰。 贝莱德智库的分析指出，当前美国劳动力市场已陷入不招聘、不裁员的停滞状态，自年初以来就业增长持续放缓，劳动力供需两端同时收缩，其中移民数量 的急剧下滑是供给端减弱的重要原因。 临近12月美联储议息窗口，全球金融市场的目光再度聚焦于美国货币政策的转向。 从市场押注概率飙升至机构集体发声，降息似乎已成为大概率事件，但劳动力市场的降温信号、潜在的政策主导权之争，以及明年经济前景的不确定性。 既然劳动力市场给出了明确的降息信号，市场对降息的信心也已拉满，那是否意味着这场降息毫无悬念？ 答案或许并非如此，在政策落地的最后关口，一则关于美联储主席人选的热议，正悄然引发华尔街的担忧，甚至可能影响政策的推进节奏。 这种停滞状态下，一个值得关注的现象是，尽管就业增长放 ...