Group 1 - Precious metals experienced a strong upward trend last week, driven by geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and continued global central bank gold purchases, with international gold prices approaching $5000 and silver prices surpassing $100 [1] - The macro environment for the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to remain generally favorable through 2026, with potential for continued upward movement [2] - The ongoing Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and the trend of de-dollarization are expected to provide sustained support for gold prices [2][3] Group 2 - Demand for copper, aluminum, and lithium is expected to strengthen, while supply constraints are likely to persist, leading to sustained price increases for these commodities [2] - Strategic minor metals such as tungsten, tantalum, and antimony are also positioned for investment opportunities due to supply-demand mismatches and geopolitical factors [3] - The demand for minor metals is significantly increasing due to their critical role in high-tech industries such as AI, military, and semiconductors [3]

近期，国际金价突破5000美元大关，国际银价突破100美元历史性关口，有色矿业板块开启结构性行情， "家里有矿，2025年涨超有色"的矿业ETF （561330）大涨近5%，资金持续布局，近20日净流入超13亿元。 国际金价突破5000美元大关，有色金属开启结构性行情 黄金：美联储降息周期持续+地缘冲突加剧+全球去美元化趋势。全球秩序的不确定性加剧，黄金的避险属性将继续凸显。分析界普遍认为，特朗普正重 拾"门罗主义"，国际秩序或重回"丛林法则"。 市场避险情绪高企，为金价带来一定支撑。后续关注新任美联储负责人人选，若新任负责人为鸽派，美联储 降息节奏或更为激进，利好黄金表现。此外，全球去美元化加速。波兰央行宣布增购150吨黄金，丹麦养老基金计划抛售美债，多国减少美元资产配置，推 动贵金属成为替代性储备资产。据世界银行数据，2024年全球央行储备中黄金储备占比约为22%，这一比例相较1990年冷战末期、1980年滞涨末期仍处于较 低水平。即使在连续3年的显著增持后，央行持有的黄金数量和历史上重要的地缘政治转折点相比仍然偏低。 有色：供需偏紧，降息周期下有望呈现弹性。近期市场对2026年美联储持续降息预期升温，叠 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a collective rise in Hong Kong's precious metals stocks, particularly in gold and silver sectors, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - China Silver Group saw a significant increase of over 10%, leading the gains among precious metal stocks, followed by Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining with over 7% rise, and other companies like Zhenfeng Gold and Zijin Mining also showing substantial increases [1] - Precious metals prices reached new highs, with spot silver surpassing $108 per ounce, marking a nearly 5% daily increase, while gold prices rose by 1.52% to exceed $5060 per ounce, accumulating a monthly increase of $730 or nearly 17% [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has revised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 from $4900 per ounce to $5400 per ounce, citing rising demand from private investors and central banks [1] - The report anticipates that central banks will increase their gold holdings by 60 tons monthly in 2026, alongside a backdrop of expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which will likely boost gold ETF allocations and further elevate gold valuations [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in the US dollar index, leading to a substantial increase in precious metals, with gold rising by 8.4% and silver by 14.4% [1] - Major institutions are raising their gold price targets, with Goldman Sachs increasing its forecast for gold prices at the end of 2026 from $4,900 per ounce to $5,400 per ounce [1] - The demand for gold from private investors and central banks is on the rise, with Goldman Sachs predicting that central banks will increase their gold holdings by 60 tons per month in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The backdrop of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is expected to lead to an increase in gold ETF allocations, further driving up gold valuations [1]

美国东部时间1月25日傍晚，纽约商品交易所2月黄金期货价格在电子盘交易中突破每盎司5000美元的历 史性关口。 现货白银盘初再创新高，现报103.85美元/盎司。 截至2025年12月末，我国黄金储备为7415万盎司，当月增持3万盎司。值得注意的是，这已是央行自 2024年11月以来，连续第14个月增持黄金。 高盛在最新报告中，将黄金今年底目标价从每盎司4900美元上调至5400美元，理由是私人部门投资者和 中央银行对黄金的需求不断增长。高盛分析师预计，各国央行今年每月将购买60吨黄金，同时随着美联 储降息，黄金ETF的持有量也将增加。各国央行已开始通过传统的ETF，与私人部门投资者争夺有限的 黄金。 赵欢则认为，黄金短期存在技术性回调风险，但中长期来看，地缘政治风险持续、央行购金行为不变、 美联储降息周期未结束，黄金价格仍有一定上涨空间。毕竟黄金作为资产配置的重要组成部分，可以应 对全球不确定性。 （来源：羊城晚报综合央视新闻、智通财经、21世纪经济报） 独立财经评论员赵欢分析，各国央行的战略性资产配置需求是本轮黄金上涨的核心支撑。此外，美联储 处在降息周期，意味着持有美元资产的吸引力下降，而黄金作为"无利 ...

瞿瑞、白雪认为，尽管美欧围绕格陵兰岛的争端有所降温，但特朗普威胁对抛售美资产的欧洲实施"重 大报复行动"，"短期地缘风险或持续反复，格陵兰岛问题未完全解决，伊朗局势可能添新变数，市场谨 慎情绪推高黄金需求。" 展望后市，黄金长期上涨趋势获机构普遍看好。 高盛在最新报告中，将黄金今年底目标价从每盎司4900美元上调至5400美元，理由是私人部门投资者和 中央银行对黄金的需求不断增长。高盛分析师预计，各国央行今年每月将购买60吨黄金，同时随着美联 储降息，黄金ETF的持有量也将增加。各国央行已开始通过传统的ETF，与私人部门投资者争夺有限的 黄金。 （原标题：新的历史纪录！黄金价格突破5000美元 机构看多到6600美元） 现货黄金首次突破5000美元/盎司，日内涨0.5%。现货白银盘初再创新高，现报104.76美元/盎司，涨幅 超1%。 2026年伊始，全球金融市场见证了一项历史性纪录的诞生。1月26日，现货黄金价格冲高，首次突破 5000美元/盎司的关键心理整数关口。 对于本轮黄金价格的大幅上涨，独立财经评论员赵欢向21快讯记者分析，各国央行的战略性资产配置需 求是本轮黄金上涨的核心支撑。此外，美联储处在降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has shown strong bullish momentum, with prices rising nearly $400 to approach the previously set target of $5000, indicating that the bullish trend may be stronger than anticipated, with potential to reach $6000 within the year [1][10]. Price Movement - Gold prices opened the week at $4615.41 per ounce, recorded a low of $4615.08, and then rebounded strongly, breaking through key resistance levels. By Friday, prices peaked at $4989.34, closing at $4982.08, marking a weekly increase of $388.01 or 8.45% from the previous week's close of $4594.07 [3][4]. Influencing Factors - The initial rise in gold prices was driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets following U.S. President Trump's warnings about tariffs on European countries related to the Greenland dispute. This was compounded by market uncertainties and expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later in the year [3][4][8]. - Despite some fluctuations due to Trump's mixed signals regarding geopolitical threats, the overall market sentiment remained bullish, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [3][4]. Future Outlook - Gold prices are expected to continue rising, with a focus on the $5000 mark and potentially higher levels. The weakening U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical risks are likely to support this trend [4][10]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to diminish the attractiveness of low-risk assets, further boosting gold demand [8][10]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with significant purchases reported, which is expected to enhance the fundamental demand for gold and signal a bullish market outlook [8][10]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices are maintaining a strong upward trend, with potential for a significant increase of over 30% if current momentum continues. The target range is projected between $5500 and $6000 [9][10]. - The breakout above key resistance levels suggests the beginning of a new bull market, with the previous resistance now acting as support [12][11].

1月26日，全球金融市场迎来历史性一刻——现货黄金价格首次站上5000美元/盎司整数关口，盘中一度涨超5037美元/盎司，截止发稿涨0.95%报5035.8美元/ 盎司，年内涨幅已超15%。这一突破不仅刷新了黄金作为避险资产的定价逻辑，更折射出全球宏观格局的深层变动。 全球央行战略性购金热潮持续 推动本轮金价大幅上涨的核心动力，首先来自全球央行的战略性购金热潮。独立财经评论员赵欢指出，各国央行的资产配置需求是金价上涨的核心支撑。中 国人民银行官方数据显示，截至2025年12月末，我国黄金储备达7415万盎司，当月增持3万盎司，这已是央行自 2024年11月以来连续第14个月增持黄金，长 期购金趋势为市场注入强劲信心。 不仅如此，波兰央行近期也宣布增持黄金，新兴市场央行因黄金储备占比相对偏低，购金意愿处于历史高位，高盛预计2026年各国央行月均购买黄金规模约 60-70吨，对金价涨幅的贡献可达14个百分点左右，各国央行甚至通过传统ETF与私人部门投资者争夺有限的黄金资源。 美联储降息周期助推 美联储的降息周期为金价上涨提供了另一重要助力。当前市场对美联储的降息预期依旧强劲，高盛预测，受美国就业市场持续恶化、失业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market witnessed a historic milestone as spot gold prices surpassed $5000 per ounce for the first time on January 26, 2026, driven by strategic asset allocation by central banks and a declining attractiveness of dollar assets due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - Spot gold prices reached a high of $5020.440 per ounce, reflecting a 0.78% increase from previous levels [2]. - The surge in gold prices is primarily supported by central banks' strategic asset allocation needs, as the attractiveness of holding dollar assets diminishes during the Fed's rate-cutting cycle [2][3]. Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks are entering a new gold-buying spree, with China's gold reserves reported at 74.15 million ounces as of December 2025, marking the 14th consecutive month of increases [3]. - This trend is expected to instill long-term confidence in the market as central banks continue to bolster their gold reserves [3]. Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - Strong expectations for Fed rate cuts persist, with Goldman Sachs predicting a potential cut exceeding market expectations due to deteriorating employment conditions and rising unemployment rates [4]. - Geopolitical risks, including tensions surrounding Greenland and the situation in Iran, are contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price target from $4900 to $5400 per ounce, citing growing demand from both private investors and central banks [4]. - The market anticipates that central banks will purchase approximately 60 tons of gold monthly, with increased holdings in gold ETFs as a result of the Fed's rate cuts [4]. Group 5: Investment Risks and Opportunities - While there may be short-term technical pullback risks for gold prices, the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing geopolitical risks, central bank purchasing behavior, and the continuation of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the price of gold could increase between 10% and 35% in 2026, with some forecasts reaching as high as $6600 per ounce [7].

记者丨李益文,毕凤至 | < W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | | 5020 284 F-5 4981.309 品量 | | | | | 0 | | +38.975 +0.78% 开盘 | 4988.170 现手 | | | | | 0 | | 最高价 | 5020.440 持 仓 0 | | | 外 盘 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 4988.170 0 | 壇 仓 | | 内 盘 | | O | | 关时 | 五日 日K | | 周Ｋ 月Ｋ | | 更多 ◎ | | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 5020.440 | | | | | 0.79% 卖一 5020.824 | | | | | | | | 头一 5020.284 | | | | | | | | 7:01 5020.060 7:01 5019.780 | 0 0 | | 4981.309 | | | | 0.00% | 7:01 5020.120 | ...