1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil is expected to continue to operate in a volatile and slightly stronger manner. The short - and medium - term trends are strengthening, with cost support from raw materials, supply pressure relieved by production decline, and demand showing a post - holiday recovery but still at a low level in recent years. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the subsequent inventory reduction rhythm [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: The main contract of hot - rolled coil futures reduced its positions by 14,370 lots on Monday, with a trading volume of 292,044 lots, which was lower than the previous trading day. The short - term moving average broke through the 5 - day moving average around 3278, the 30 - day moving average was 3250, and the medium - term pressure was around the 60 - day moving average of 3265 [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3280 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was - 19 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply side**: The actual weekly output was 295.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.85 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 23.39 million tons. Steel mills actively reduced production, and both the year - on - year and month - on - month production decreased, alleviating the supply - side pressure [4] - **Demand side**: The apparent consumption was 295.36 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.79 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 35.99 million tons. The weekly apparent demand rebounded, but it was still weak year - on - year, and the demand had not formed a continuous warming trend [4] - **Inventory side**: The social inventory was 382.31 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 50.41 million tons, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The steel mill inventory was 89.28 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8 million tons, indicating a reduction in in - plant inventory. The total inventory was 471.59 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 55.37 million tons. The total inventory increased significantly year - on - year, the social inventory accumulated obviously, the inventory - to - sales ratio was still at a high level, and the market inventory reduction pressure was not fundamentally relieved [4] - **Policy side**: On March 5, 2026, the National Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds to strengthen the support for infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting the medium - and long - term market confidence. However, the current manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, downstream orders had not improved substantially, and it would take time for policies to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, making it difficult to reverse the high - inventory pattern in the short term [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, policy support ("15th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and stronger raw materials [5] - **Bearish factors**: Slow realization of demand, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro - level disturbances [5]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot-rolled coil industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] Core View - The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a stage of game between "weak reality" (inventory accumulation, weak domestic demand) and "strong expectation" (export support, policy benefits). Price increases depend on demand recovery and policy implementation. The improvement of export profits, the resilience of steel mill production, and policy expectations form the bottom support, limiting the downside space. The key in the medium term is the recovery strength of terminal demand [5] Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The trading volume of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract on Wednesday was 278,376 lots, a significant decrease from the previous trading day. The short-term moving average broke above the 5-day moving average of 3,246 and the 30-day moving average of 3,251. The medium-term resistance is around the 60-day moving average of 3,265. The open interest decreased by 4,576 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3,250 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot prices was -19 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The actual weekly output was 3.0111 million tons, a decrease of 85,000 tons (-2.75%) from the previous week, indicating a slight contraction in production [4] - **Demand**: The apparent consumption was 2.8157 million tons, a decrease of 97,400 tons from the previous week. Post-festival demand recovery was below expectations. In absolute terms, it remains at a relatively low level compared to historical periods, and the weak reality persists. The actual start of work in downstream manufacturing and the automotive industry needs further verification [4] - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 3.8161 million tons, an increase of 242,400 tons (+6.78%) from the previous week, showing continuous inventory accumulation. Steel mill inventory was 900,800 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons (-4.96%) from the previous week, indicating a reduction in in-plant inventory. Total inventory was 4.7169 million tons, an increase of 146,800 tons (+3.21%) from the previous week, indicating that overall inventory is still increasing. Inventory levels in 2026 are higher than in previous years, and inventory pressure remains [4] - **Policy**: On March 5, 2026, the Two Sessions were held, and the government work report proposed issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and allocating 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds to strengthen infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting medium- and long-term market confidence. However, the current manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, downstream orders have not improved substantially, and it will take time for policies to be transmitted to the hot-rolled coil demand side, making it difficult to reverse the high inventory situation in the short term [4] Market Driving Factors Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("15th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [5] - **Bearish Factors**: Slow demand realization, drag from raw material prices, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro uncertainties [5] Short-Term Outlook - The main hot-rolled coil contract closed up on Wednesday with a decrease in open interest and trading volume. Short-term support is around the 30-day and 5-day moving averages, and resistance is around this week's high. In the short and medium term, the moving averages are showing signs of strengthening. The market is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation." The price increase depends on demand recovery and policy implementation. The improvement of export profits, the resilience of steel mill production, and policy expectations form the bottom support, limiting the downside space. Future attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed in mid-to-late March, the resumption of work in the manufacturing industry and order fulfillment, and changes in supply-side production [5]

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing downward pressure on prices due to high supply, elevated inventory levels at northern ports, and weak demand, despite some support expected during the summer peak season [2][3]. Coal Market Analysis - Northern port inventories have reached record highs, leading to a continued decline in thermal coal prices. The supply in coal-producing regions remains high, and the demand is weak, particularly as southern regions enter the rainy season, which will increase hydropower generation [2][3]. - Coking coal prices are stable but slightly decreasing, with a slight recovery in coking coal mine inventories. Downstream coking coal inventories remain at low to medium levels, which supports short-term coal prices [2][3]. Market Performance - The equity market showed a general upward trend, but the coal sector underperformed compared to the broader index. On May 7, a press conference by the State Council introduced a package of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, which helped the Shanghai Composite Index recover to above 3300 points [2][3]. - The average trading volume in the market was 1.3 trillion yuan, with daily financing purchases fluctuating around 100 billion yuan, indicating increased trading activity compared to the previous week [2][3]. Future Outlook - For thermal coal, prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high supply and low demand, but there may be upward support as the market approaches the summer peak season for coal stockpiling [3]. - The recommendation is to focus on high-quality coal stocks with strong cash flow and high dividends [3].

Group 1 - High supply pressure persists with insufficient production cut momentum as steel mills maintain high output levels, with average daily pig iron production reaching 2.4564 million tons as of May 9, an increase of 0.22 million tons from the previous month and 2.127 million tons from the year's low [1] - Steel mills are experiencing profit compression, with rebar profits in Jiangsu dropping to approximately 40 CNY/ton, yet they have not entered a full loss zone, resulting in a lack of motivation for proactive production cuts [1] - The market sentiment has been temporarily boosted by news of potential crude steel production limits, but the actual impact on short-term production remains minimal due to the time lag in policy implementation [1] Group 2 - Demand resilience is gradually weakening, with seasonal and export pressures becoming evident; while domestic demand has shown strength due to infrastructure investment and manufacturing orders, its sustainability is in question [3] - Infrastructure investment has been supported by accelerated special bond issuance, with a year-on-year increase of 9 percentage points in issuance progress, reaching 41.5% by the end of April [3] - Export demand remains resilient but shows a clear downward trend; the export price gap for hot-rolled coils has widened to over 50 USD/ton, which has marginally improved order intake for some steel mills [4] Group 3 - Iron ore prices are experiencing a range-bound fluctuation, with short-term steel production maintaining high levels, leading to stable demand for iron ore [5] - The supply-side pressure is manageable, with seasonal recovery in shipment volumes from major mining countries, although non-mainstream mines are limited in their output due to price declines [6] - In the medium to long term, there are risks of iron ore prices weakening if both domestic and export steel demand decline, potentially leading to further production cuts by steel mills [6] Group 4 - Steel prices are expected to show an overall trend of "stability followed by decline" in May, with initial support from domestic demand but potential weakening as seasonal effects and profit compression take hold [7] - The average planned daily pig iron production for May is projected to be around 2.4 million tons, with limited declines, making it difficult to reverse the high supply situation in the short term [7] - Key variables affecting steel prices include the ability of steel mills to adjust production in response to market demand changes, with potential for price rebounds if unexpected production cuts or counter-cyclical policies are introduced [7]