这一战略合作的背后，是一系列高规格商业协议的联动。至此，OpenAI、英伟达与甲骨文（Oracle）构成的"ONO"三方联盟正式成型，一个围 绕"大模型—云基建—算力芯片"的资本链条已初见雏形。 当地时间9月22日，英伟达宣布，将向人工智能公司OpenAI进行最高达1000亿美元（约合人民币7112.7亿）的战略投资，双方将合作建设大规 模人工智能数据中心及其他基础设施。 受此消息提振，英伟达股价当日一度上涨超4%，创下历史新高，总市值逼近4.5万亿美元。 知情人士向彭博社透露称，这笔资金将分阶段到位，首笔100亿美元将在协议签署时到位。英伟达将以现金形式进行投资，并获得OpenAI的股 权作为交易的一部分。后续，随着每一吉瓦算力的部署，英伟达的投资金额将逐步追加。OpenAI还可利用这笔资金购买英伟达的芯片。 首先，作为一家估值千亿美元的AI公司，OpenAI不仅未实现盈利，甚至在2025年预计将亏损超过50亿美元。其每年约100亿美元的收入，远低 于每年600亿美元的云服务支出。OpenAI还面临越来着来自谷歌、Anthropic等公司的激烈竞争。 此外，甲骨文也面临着财务问题，其为支持AI业务的资本支出 ...

巨头"烧钱"再提速，资本开支远超预期 根据摩根士丹利的报告，美国四大云巨头的资本支出增长正在重新加速。其美国分析师团队预测2025年第四季度这四家公司总云资 本支出为1000亿美元，同比增长增加39%。 一场由AI驱动的、耗资数千亿美元的全球云基建竞赛，正以前所未有的速度升温。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利最新研报大幅上调了对美国四大云服务提供商——亚马逊、谷歌、Meta和微软的资本开支预测。这 四家公司在2025年的合并资本开支预计将达到3590亿美元，同比增长57%；2026年将进一步增至4540亿美元，同比增长26%，均显 著高于此前的预测。 这一轮"烧钱"竞赛的范围远不止于头部玩家。报告强调，市场可能严重低估了来自非美国地区和二线云服务商的需求。这些追赶者 正在积极布局，其AI服务器的潜在订单规模不容小觑。 与此同时，供应端的瓶颈也在逐步缓解，备受关注的英伟达GB200芯片组装良率正持续改善。AI基础设施的繁荣周期或许不仅在深 化，还在向更广阔的市场蔓延。 团队同时将这四家公司2025年全年的资本开支同比增速预测从38%上调至57%至3590亿美元，2026年的增速预测也从17%上调至26% 至454 ...

Core Viewpoint - A global cloud infrastructure competition driven by AI is rapidly intensifying, with significant capital expenditure increases expected from major cloud service providers [1][2][7]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure Projections - Morgan Stanley has significantly raised its capital expenditure forecasts for the four major U.S. cloud service providers—Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft—projecting a combined capital expenditure of $359 billion in 2025, a 57% year-over-year increase, and $454 billion in 2026, a 26% increase [1][2]. - The total capital expenditure for the top 11 global cloud service providers is expected to reach $445 billion in 2025, surpassing previous estimates of $400 billion [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue for these companies is projected to exceed 20% by 2026, marking a historical high, with 18% expected in 2025 [3]. - There is a growing demand from non-U.S. regions and Tier 2 cloud service providers, which may have even larger AI server reserves than leading players, indicating a significant market expansion [5]. Group 3: Supply Chain Improvements - Supply chain issues are easing, with improvements in the assembly yield of NVIDIA's next-generation GB200 chips, which is crucial for meeting the rising demand for AI servers [6]. - Major projects like "Stargate," a collaboration involving OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle, are moving from concept to execution, indicating a shift from order-based to project-based demand [6]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on the cloud semiconductor industry, citing strong global demand, underestimated growth areas, and improving supply chains as foundational elements for sustained industry growth in the coming years [7].

Group 1 - A global cloud infrastructure competition driven by AI is rapidly intensifying, with significant capital expenditure increases forecasted for major cloud service providers [1][2] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the combined capital expenditure of Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft will reach $359 billion in 2025, a 57% year-over-year increase, and $454 billion in 2026, a 26% increase [2][5] - The report highlights that the demand from non-US regions and Tier 2 cloud service providers is likely underestimated, indicating a broader market potential [1][7] Group 2 - The capital expenditure growth for the four major US cloud providers is expected to accelerate, with a projected $100 billion in Q4 2025, a 39% year-over-year increase [2] - The total capital expenditure for the top 11 global cloud service providers is expected to reach $445 billion in 2025, significantly higher than previous forecasts [2] Group 3 - By 2026, capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue for these companies is expected to exceed 20%, setting a new historical high [5] - The demand for AI servers, particularly from Tier 2 cloud service providers, is anticipated to grow significantly, with potential capital expenditure increases starting in the second half of 2026 [7] Group 4 - Supply chain issues are easing, with improvements in the assembly yield of Nvidia's GB200 chips, which supports the growing demand for AI servers [8] - Major projects like "Stargate," involving OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle, are moving from planning to execution, indicating a shift from order-based to project-based demand [8]