本文字数：1501，阅读时长大约3分钟 2025.11.12 作者 |第一财经 林靖 《中国统计年鉴2025》公布了2024年31个省份的人口出生率、死亡率和自然增长率数据。出生率方面， 2024年有14个省份的出生率高于全国平均水平（6.77‰），其中，共有10个省份人口出生率超过8‰， 分别是西藏、宁夏、贵州、青海、新疆、海南、广东、云南、广西和甘肃，主要位于西部地区和华南地 区。从人口自然增长率来看，11个省份2024年人口自然增长率保持正增长，主要是西部省份和东部沿海 省份，分别是西藏、宁夏、新疆、云南、广西、贵州、青海、广西、广东、北京和福建，人口自然正增 长省份比上一年增加了3个。 从数据来看，一些出生率比较高的省份，同时也是近三年来常住人口增长的地区。这些省份主要分布在 西部地区和华南沿海地区。 从人口迁徙趋势看，长三角、珠三角成为人口迁移流入的主要地区。一方面，我国人口仍在向长三角、 珠三角等发达地区集聚；另一方面，在各省域内部，中小城市、农村人口继续向中心城市流动。 根据第一财经记者统计，近三年常住人口增量前五的城市分别是合肥、贵阳、杭州、长沙和郑州。其 中，4个来自中西部的省会城市。 其中 ...

Core Insights - Since 2022, China's population development has entered a reduction phase, characterized by declining birth rates, aging population, and regional population disparities [1] Population Growth by Province - In 2024, 11 provinces experienced positive population growth compared to three years prior, including Zhejiang, Guangdong, Xinjiang, Hainan, Jiangsu, Anhui, Guizhou, Fujian, Ningxia, Tibet, and Hubei [1] - Zhejiang led with an increase of 1.3 million residents over three years, with all cities in the province showing positive growth [1] - The balanced regional economic development and strong private sector in Zhejiang are favorable for labor absorption [1] Migration Trends - The Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are primary regions for population inflow, with migration from smaller cities and rural areas to central cities [1] - The top five cities for population growth over the past three years are Hefei, Guiyang, Hangzhou, Changsha, and Zhengzhou, with four being provincial capitals from central and western regions [1] Hefei's Population Growth - Hefei's population increased by 537,000 over three years, making it the fourth city in the Yangtze River Delta to exceed 10 million residents, reaching a total of 10.002 million in 2024 [2] - The city's industrial development, particularly in new sectors like electric vehicles and integrated circuits, has attracted young talent [2] Guiyang's Population Growth - Guiyang saw a population increase of 502,000, benefiting from the "strong provincial capital" and "strong talent" strategies, achieving over 100,000 net population growth for four consecutive years [2] Birth and Natural Growth Rates - In 2024, 14 provinces had birth rates above the national average of 6.77‰, with 10 provinces exceeding 8‰, primarily in western and southern regions [3] - Guangdong had a birth rate of 8.89‰, with a total of 1.13 million births in 2024, marking it as the top province for births for seven consecutive years [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the population growth trends in China, particularly focusing on the provinces of Zhejiang and Guangdong, which are leading in population increase despite a national decline [1][2] - Since 2022, China's population has entered a reduction phase, characterized by declining birth rates, aging population, and regional population disparities [1] - In the last three years, 11 provinces have experienced positive population growth, with Zhejiang and Guangdong showing the most significant increases [1] Group 2 - Zhejiang's population increased by 1.3 million over the past three years, with all its cities maintaining positive growth, attributed to its strong private economy and balanced regional development [1] - The top five cities with the highest population growth in the last three years are Hefei, Guiyang, Hangzhou, Changsha, and Zhengzhou, with Hefei leading at an increase of 537,000 [2] - Hefei has become the fourth city in the Yangtze River Delta to exceed a population of 10 million, driven by industrial development and the attraction of new industries [2] Group 3 - In 2024, 14 provinces had birth rates above the national average of 6.77‰, with 10 provinces exceeding 8‰, primarily located in the western and southern regions [3] - Guangdong's birth rate reached 8.89‰ in 2023, maintaining its status as the top province for births for seven consecutive years, with a total of 1.13 million births in 2024 [3] - The natural population growth rates in 11 provinces remained positive, indicating a trend of population increase in both western and eastern coastal provinces [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant demographic shift in China, where traditional first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are losing their appeal, while emerging cities such as Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Hefei are experiencing rapid population growth [1][2] Group 1: Decline of First-Tier Cities - The net population growth in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen combined was only 563,000 in the first half of 2025, a nearly 40% decrease compared to the same period in 2020 [1][2] - High living costs are a major deterrent, with housing price-to-income ratios in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen at 23.5, 21.8, and 20.6 respectively, far exceeding the internationally accepted range of 8-10 [4] - The average commuting time for residents in first-tier cities is 76 minutes, which is 32 minutes longer than in second-tier cities, contributing to increased stress and reduced quality of life [5] Group 2: Factors Driving Migration to Emerging Cities - Many second and third-tier cities are implementing attractive talent policies, including housing subsidies and simplified residency processes, making them more appealing to young professionals [5][7] - In the first half of 2025, the cities with the highest net inflow of population were Hangzhou (245,000), Chengdu (228,000), and Hefei (186,000) [7] Group 3: Rise of Emerging Cities - Hangzhou is emerging as a leader in digital economy, with a core industry value added of 268 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, growing by 15.2% year-on-year [8] - Chengdu's housing price-to-income ratio is significantly lower at 12.3, and it added 12,000 new tech companies in the first half of 2025, indicating a thriving business environment [9] - Hefei is making strides in technology innovation, with high-tech industry output growing by 22.6% in the first half of 2025, and a contribution rate of over 65% to economic growth [10] Group 4: New Urban Selection Logic - The shift in population dynamics reflects a broader trend where young professionals are prioritizing lifestyle quality and personal fit over traditional notions of success tied to major cities [11][14] - The article emphasizes that the best city choice is one that aligns with individual career aspirations and lifestyle preferences, rather than simply following the crowd to first-tier cities [14]

Core Insights - The population dynamics in China are shifting, with a notable trend of university graduates returning to their hometowns instead of migrating to major cities for employment [1][3][4] - In 2024, eight provinces experienced positive population growth, a decrease from eleven in 2023, while twenty provinces saw a total population decline of 3.04 million [1][5] - The attractiveness of provincial capitals is increasing, with 23 out of 25 reporting population growth in 2024 [11][12] Group 1: Population Trends - In 2024, over 80,000 net population inflow is expected in Chongqing, despite a slight overall population decline [1][9] - From 2020 to 2024, Zhejiang and Guangdong led in population growth, with increases of over 2 million and 1.56 million respectively [4][5] - The number of provinces with positive population growth has decreased from 15 in 2021 to only 8 in 2024 [5][6] Group 2: Employment Preferences - Many university graduates prefer to work in their hometowns due to perceived advantages over larger cities [3][4] - The report indicates that the talent attraction in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions remains strong, with significant numbers of graduates choosing these areas [4][5] - The employment landscape is changing, with a growing number of graduates considering second and third-tier cities due to lower living costs and better quality of life [17][18] Group 3: Migrant Worker Dynamics - The total number of migrant workers in China reached approximately 29.97 million in 2024, with a 0.7% increase from the previous year [7][8] - A significant shift is observed in the movement of migrant workers, with a higher proportion opting for intra-provincial migration rather than inter-provincial [8][9] - Policies aimed at improving local employment opportunities are encouraging migrant workers to return to their hometowns [9][10] Group 4: Urban Preferences - Provincial capitals are becoming more appealing due to better infrastructure and job opportunities compared to first-tier cities [11][12] - In 2024, major cities like Beijing and Shanghai experienced population declines, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw increases [14][18] - The trend indicates a more balanced distribution of talent across cities, with many graduates considering the trade-offs between high salaries in major cities and the cost of living [17][18]