2025年12月31日，金融监管总局发布《商业银行并购贷款管理办法》（下称《办法》），进一步拓宽了并 购贷款适用范围，允许并购贷款用于参股型并购；同时，优化贷款条件，将控制型并购贷款占并购交易价 款比例上限提高至70%，贷款最长期限也延长至10年。 此外，《办法》设置了差异化展业资质要求，对开展控制型和参股型并购贷款的银行设置了不同的资产规模要 求；突出并购方偿债能力评估，强调借款人和并购交易审查并重。《办法》自印发之日起施行。 《办法》实施后，科技企业并购贷款试点政策、上海临港新片区非居民并购贷款试点政策，以及监管部门会同 有关部委出台的相关行业政策文件仍然有效。 本次《办法》最明显的修订内容在于拓宽了并购贷款适用范围，在原有规定适用控制型并购交易基础上，允许 并购贷款用于满足一定条件的参股型并购。 这些条件包括：单次取得目标企业的股权比例不得低于20%；若单一并购方已持有目标企业20%及以上的股 权，单次受让或者认购股权比例需不得低于5%。 金融监管总局有关司局负责人解释称，当前中国经济正处于新旧动能转换的关键时期。一方面传统产业逐渐进 入整合优化期，另一方面新兴产业仍在培育壮大过程中。除控制型并购外，市 ...

12月15日，国家统计局公布的数据显示，1—11月，全国固定资产投资（下称"固投"）同比下降2.6%； 扣除房地产开发投资，全国固投同比增长0.8%。 如图一红色曲线所示，2005—2011年，固投增速均在20%以上，此后十余年固投增速呈现快速下滑的态 势。仅看2025年，逐月累计的固投增速也呈现不断下降的趋势。按照此趋势，2025年固投增速预计将为 负值，这也是过去二十年固投首次出现同比负增长的情况。 浙商证券（601878）宏观联席首席分析师廖博表示："据我们测算，今年7—11月投资的当月同比已连续 6个月转负，当前固投运行状态在历史上较为罕见。" 制图：田进 12月10日至11日举行的中央经济工作会议提出，推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投资规模，优 化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用，有效激发民 间投资活力。 远东资信研究院副院长张林表示，如果能意识到固投增速的变化是经济结构调整的体现，就不要期待政 策会通过大水漫灌的方式拉动固投增速反弹。中央经济工作会议的整体政策基调是"托而不举"，兼顾跨 周期，推动投资止跌回稳的表述是要求增速统计由负转正，并未设定 ...

中国人民银行12日发布的数据显示，11月末，广义货币（M2)及社会融资规模分别同比增长8.0%、 8.5%，较上年同期高0.9、0.7个百分点；前11个月社融规模增量累计33.39万亿元，同比多3.99万亿元。 业内专家表示，当前社会融资规模和M2增速较名义GDP增速高出近一倍，充分体现了适度宽松的货币 政策状态，为经济高质量发展营造了适宜的金融总量环境。而贷款增速回落是多方面因素作用的结果， 从全年看金融数据仍处于合理水平。 ——人民币信贷增约3900亿元贷款 量稳价降质效提升 根据中国人民银行数据，前11个月，人民币贷款增加15.36万亿元，其中11月单月增加3900亿元；月末 人民币各项贷款余额271万亿元，同比增长6.4%，增速较上月继续小幅回落约0.1个百分点。 针对贷款增速略低于社融规模及M2增速情况，市场人士分析认为，这既体现了多元化融资方式对银行 贷款的替代，也与地方化债和中小银行改革化险的下拉作用有关。 有研究测算，去年以来地方政府发行4万亿元特殊再融资债券，其中约六到七成用于偿还银行贷款，对 当前贷款增速的下拉影响超过1个百分点。 同时年内金融机构的贷款核销规模也在1万亿元以上，同样会下拉 ...

12月12日，央行披露最新金融统计数据。初步统计，2025年11月末社会融资规模存量为440.07万亿元，同比增长8.5%。 业内专家表示，今年新增政府债务总规模11.86万亿元，比去年增加2.9万亿元，普通国债、特别国债和地方政府专项债额度都明显增 加，相应带动政府债券在社会融资规模中占比提升。 11月末，广义货币（M2）余额336.99万亿元，同比增长8%。业内专家指出，M2同比增速比上年同期高0.9个百分点，在上年同期基数 提高的背景下，仍保持较高增速。当前社会融资规模和M2增速比名义GDP（国内生产总值）增速高出约一倍，充分体现了适度宽松的 货币政策状态，为经济高质量发展营造了适宜的金融总量环境。 信贷投放"提质换挡" 业内专家表示，中长期来看，贷款增速回落是经济新旧动能转换在金融领域的反映。 一方面是传统信贷大户需求回落。前些年，基础设施建设、房地产和地方融资平台等领域是信贷投放的主力，经过几十年大规模开发 建设后，传统投资驱动模式的边际效益在递减，房地产市场从"增量扩张"转向"存量提质"，地方债务风险化解工作也在有序推进，导 致这些传统领域的信贷需求有所降温。 另一方面是新的经济增长点较少依赖银行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that the rapid issuance of government bonds is increasingly substituting for loans, reflecting a shift in financing dynamics within the economy [1][2]. Group 1: Social Financing and Loan Data - As of the end of November 2025, the total social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%. The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.42 trillion yuan, growing by 6.3% year-on-year [1]. - The balance of corporate bonds was 34.08 trillion yuan, up 5.6% year-on-year, while government bonds reached 94.24 trillion yuan, marking an 18.8% increase [1]. - The proportion of RMB loans to the real economy accounted for 60.8% of the total social financing scale, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Government Bond Issuance and Fiscal Policy - The issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special government bonds has been completed, with 2 trillion yuan allocated for refinancing existing hidden debts and 4.4 trillion yuan for new project construction [2]. - Government bond financing now constitutes 40% of the incremental social financing scale, indicating a significant contribution to overall financing growth [2]. Group 3: Monetary Supply and Credit Quality - The M2 money supply stood at 336.99 trillion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 112.89 trillion yuan, up 4.9% [4]. - The balance of loans in both domestic and foreign currencies was 274.84 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [5]. Group 4: Economic Transition and Loan Demand - The decline in loan growth reflects a transition in economic drivers from investment to consumption, with traditional sectors like real estate seeing reduced credit demand [6]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, down about 30 basis points year-on-year, indicating a low-cost borrowing environment [6]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Tools and Framework - The central bank plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to ensure adequate liquidity and support economic stability [8][9]. - The framework for monetary policy will be optimized to enhance the effectiveness of liquidity management and ensure a balanced growth of financial totals [11][12].

贷款方面，前11个月人民币贷款增加15.36万亿元。分部门看，住户贷款增加5333亿元，其中，短期贷 款减少7328亿元，中长期贷款增加1.27万亿元；企(事)业单位贷款增加14.4万亿元，其中，短期贷款增 加4.44万亿元，中长期贷款增加8.49万亿元，票据融资增加1.31万亿元；非银行业金融机构贷款减少332 亿元。 (责任编辑：朱赫) 业内专家表示，中长期来看，贷款增速回落是经济新旧动能转换在金融领域的反映。一方面是传统信贷 大户需求回落，即传统投资驱动模式的边际效益在递减，地方债务风险化解工作有序推进。 中国央行12日发布数据显示，11月末，广义货币(M2)余额336.99万亿元(人民币，下同)，同比增长8%。 狭义货币(M1)余额112.89万亿元，同比增长4.9%。流通中货币(M0)余额13.74万亿元，同比增长10.6%。 前11个月净投放现金9175亿元。 从全年平均水平看，M2和人民币贷款等金融总量数据处于相对稳定的水平，也明显高于同期名义经济 增速，较好体现了逆周期和跨周期调节。 另一方面是新的经济增长点较少依赖银行贷款。经济增长由投资驱动转向消费驱动，但民众日常消费多 依赖自有资金，相关 ...

Core Insights - In October, China's total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, the highest monthly growth rate this year [1] - From January to October, total electricity consumption accumulated to 8.6246 trillion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, indicating a positive trend in the national economy [1] Factors Contributing to Growth - The high growth rate in October is attributed to multiple factors, including a low base from the previous year and the effective release of consumer potential during the overlapping National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [2] - The "autumn tiger" phenomenon, characterized by significant temperature increases in southern China, led to a surge in residential cooling electricity consumption, with notable increases in Jiangxi (65.9%), Zhejiang (63.2%), and Shanghai (47.0%) [2] Sector Performance - The primary industry showed steady growth, with October electricity consumption at 12 billion kilowatt-hours, up 13.2% year-on-year [3] - The secondary industry, as the main electricity consumer, recorded 568.8 billion kilowatt-hours in October, a 6.2% increase, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors performing particularly well, growing by 11% [3] - The tertiary industry emerged as one of the fastest-growing sectors, with October electricity consumption at 160.9 billion kilowatt-hours, up 17.1% year-on-year, driven by the retail and information technology services sectors [3] Long-term Economic Outlook - From January to October, the tertiary industry's electricity consumption reached 1.67 trillion kilowatt-hours, growing by 8.4%, reflecting the deepening transition of China's economic dynamics [4] - The overall electricity consumption data indicates an improvement in economic activity, consumer potential release, and optimization of industrial structure, reinforcing a positive long-term economic outlook [4]

随着央行买债的影响告一段落，市场关注点重回基本面和权益市场表现，市场利率下行缺乏驱动，市场 观望氛围渐浓，债市重回偏弱震荡格局。近期，在政策真空期下，债市逐渐从"强预期"向"弱现实"回 归，由于消息面平静，债市延续区间震荡走势。上证指数重回4000点，以及公募基金赎回费率新规消息 扰动，对债市情绪仍有压制作用。 四季度债市进入供给淡季，供需结构好转，但机构"抢跑"或弱于往年，需求端对债市的支撑有限。当前 银行仍面临负债端稳定性压力，叠加在宏观面支撑下，明年一季度股市表现仍然可期，机构行为或偏保 守，"抢跑"积极性有限。 当前基本面分化磨底特征未变，内需有待强化，外需仍有韧性但旺季逐渐过去。受食品供给扰动、"反 内卷"政策等拉动，10月CPI和PPI均有所修复，且强于预期，但分化特征明显，内生动能及广谱性消费 需求仍偏弱，制约价格修复弹性。 综上，笔者认为，当前债市多空因素交织，整体"胜率有余、赔率不足"，经济基本面不强和风险偏好偏 强仍是主要矛盾。四季度基本面压力较大，供给端不强、央行重启买债操作支撑债市持续修复。不过在 央行购债规模受限、宏观面偏积极、股市配置性价比较高、公募基金销售新规仍待落地背景下，利率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The transformation of China's economy is entering a new phase, with a shift from old to new economic drivers, which is positively impacting the capital market ecosystem [1][2][6]. Economic Transformation - The transition from old to new economic drivers is seen as a trend, with the old economy's clearance benefiting the bond market, while the rise of the new economy is favorable for the stock market [1][2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to set the tone for medium to long-term development, with nominal GDP growth likely to improve next year, leading to slight profit growth expectations [2][6]. Liquidity and Investment Trends - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice this year and possibly three more times next year, contributing to a globally loose liquidity environment [2][5]. - Increased interest from foreign investors in Chinese assets is noted, alongside strong domestic demand for reallocation of funds from maturing deposits and wealth management products [2][5]. Market Strategy and Asset Allocation - A diversified portfolio including technology stocks, resource stocks, gold, and short-term bonds is recommended for risk diversification [3][4]. - The "anti-involution" theme is highlighted as beneficial for balancing supply and demand, improving the business environment, and enhancing corporate profitability [3][4]. Long-term Market Outlook - The long-term positive outlook for the Chinese capital market is supported by three main factors: the transition to new economic drivers, the influx of long-term capital, and the introduction of stabilizing funds to reduce market volatility [6]. - The capital market is expected to benefit from the structural support for technology innovation enterprises and the anticipated liquidity environment from the Federal Reserve's actions [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The transformation of China's economy is entering a new stage, with significant changes in the capital market ecosystem driven by industrial breakthroughs and capital reallocation [1][3][10]. Economic Transformation - The transition from old to new economic drivers is becoming more pronounced, with the old economy's clearance benefiting the bond market, while the rise of the new economy is expected to favor the stock market [3]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is set to provide guidance for medium to long-term economic growth and policy focus, indicating further breakthroughs in the industrial sector and a balance in supply and demand [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The macroeconomic narrative is shifting towards a more favorable outlook, with reduced tail risks and improved liquidity conditions both domestically and internationally [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, which will enhance global liquidity and increase foreign investors' interest in Chinese assets [3][9]. Investment Strategies - A diversified portfolio including technology stocks, resource stocks, gold, and short-term bonds is recommended to mitigate risks [4]. - The "anti-involution" theme is seen as beneficial for achieving supply-demand balance and improving the business environment, although it may temporarily suppress investment demand [6][10]. Long-term Market Outlook - The long-term outlook for the Chinese capital market is optimistic due to three main reasons: the gradual transition to a new economic phase, the influx of long-term capital, and the introduction of stabilizing funds to reduce irrational market volatility [10]. - The demand for reallocation of funds from maturing deposits and wealth management products is expected to support the market [9].