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重视价格法修订促ROE&现金流提升,水价市场化+现金流拐点,下一个垃圾焚烧! | 投研报告
Group 1: Investment Highlights - Key recommendations include companies such as Conch Venture, Hanlan Environment, Green Power, Yongxing Co., and others, indicating a strong focus on the environmental sector [2] - Suggested companies for attention include Green Power Environmental, Deyu Water, and others, highlighting potential investment opportunities in the environmental industry [2] Group 2: Policy Tracking - The first revision of pricing regulations in 27 years aims to promote market-oriented pricing, enhancing ROE and cash flow in sectors like water, waste, and energy [3] - Strengthened environmental inspections signal a more systematic and effective regulatory approach to environmental protection in China [3] Group 3: Industry Insights - The water operations sector is expected to experience a cash flow turning point, similar to the garbage incineration sector, with significant increases in free cash flow anticipated from 2026 [4] - Price reforms are expected to reshape growth and valuation in the water sector, with potential for 2-3 times valuation increases as the market matures [4] Group 4: Company-Specific Analysis - Xingrong Environment shows a current PB of 1.16, with a projected PE of 9.8 for 2025, indicating potential for dividend increases [5] - Yuehai Investment has a PB of 1.08 and a projected PE of 10.6 for 2025, with a dividend yield of 6.2%, suggesting strong market positioning [5] - Hongcheng Environment is committed to maintaining a dividend payout of no less than 50% from 2021 to 2026, with a projected PE of 9.6 for 2025 [5] Group 5: Market Trends - The environmental sanitation equipment sector saw a 7.24% increase in new energy penetration, with a total of 38,164 sanitation vehicles sold in the first half of 2025 [5] - The average price of biodiesel remained stable, with a net profit per ton showing a significant decline [5] - In lithium battery recycling, metal prices showed mixed trends, with lithium carbonate at 71,300 (down 2.2% week-on-week) and cobalt at 276,000 (up 11.3% week-on-week) [5]