一、汽车整车出口概况 2025年上半年，我国整车（含成套散件）出口运行呈现震荡上行趋势，月 出口量高峰和低谷差额约26万辆，其中5月的66.63万辆为今年以来最高值。1-6 月累计出口整车（不含低值电动车，下同）333.68万辆，同比增长18.0%，出 口额593.96亿美元，同比增长8.0%，增速显著放缓。 1-6月，新能源汽车出口148.20万辆，同比增长50.2%，出口额295.00亿美 元，同比增长26.1%，占整车出口总量的44.4%，出口总额的49.7%。其中，插 混乘用车占整车出口总量的12.1%，出口总额的13.8%，同比增长较快。 三、整车出口市场分布 从市场分布上看，亚洲为上半年整车出口最大市场，出口量和出口额占比 分别达39.5%和41.3%，增势稳定。欧洲列第二位，出口82.64万辆，出口额 159.70亿美元，占比分别为24.8%和26.9%。拉丁美洲列第三位，出口71.96万 辆，出口额98.83亿美元，增速趋缓。对北美洲出口同比大幅下滑，主要受美国 特朗普政府关税政策影响。 从出口量看，墨西哥、阿联酋和俄罗斯居我整车出口市场前三位；从出口 额看，阿联酋超过墨西哥居首位，比利时以3 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of transforming pressure into motivation for high-quality economic development, highlighting the need for a stable and continuous policy environment to attract foreign investment [2] - In the first seven months of 2023, the number of newly established foreign-invested enterprises in China increased by 14.1% to 36,133, while the actual utilized foreign capital decreased by 13.4% to 467.34 billion RMB, indicating a complex landscape for foreign investment [2] - A report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development indicates a global decline in foreign direct investment by 11% in 2024, correlating with the decrease in China's utilized foreign capital, reflecting a conservative strategy among multinational companies amid high interest rates and geopolitical conflicts [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S.-China economic rivalry has made foreign investors more cautious, particularly due to U.S. export controls and near-shoring strategies, which affect investment decisions in high-tech sectors [3] - Domestic economic transitions, such as real estate market adjustments and weak domestic demand, have led some foreign enterprises to adopt a wait-and-see approach regarding market prospects [3] - Despite challenges, the structure of foreign investment shows positive trends, with the proportion of foreign capital in high-tech industries rising from 28.5% in 2020 to 29.4% in the first seven months of 2023 [3] Group 3 - Notably, actual foreign capital utilization in high-tech industries has seen rapid growth, with significant increases in sectors such as e-commerce services (146.8%), aerospace manufacturing (42.2%), chemical pharmaceuticals (37.4%), and medical instruments (25.5%) [4] - The Chinese government has implemented various measures to stabilize foreign investment, including a notification in July 2023 that supports foreign enterprises in reinvesting in China across ten areas such as land use, taxation, and foreign exchange management [5] - China has fully removed restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing sector and continues to expand access in telecommunications and healthcare, with pilot programs in free trade zones for foreign investment in technology innovation [5]

Core Insights - The "2025 International Currency Forum" held by Renmin University of China and Nankai University focused on the complexities and impacts of geopolitical economic risks in the current global landscape [1][3] - The forum emphasized the need for effective identification, assessment, and response to geopolitical economic risks to ensure national economic security and support high-quality development in China [3] Group 1: Geopolitical Economic Risks - Geopolitical economic risks are characterized by their complexity, interconnectivity, and suddenness, influenced by geopolitical conflicts, unilateralism, and protectionism [3] - The core features of geopolitical economic risks involve the use of economic means with diverse objectives, which can be either economic or political [6] - The long-term structural contradictions of geopolitical economic risks necessitate international cooperation and reform of the international monetary system to enhance resilience and inclusivity [7] Group 2: Measurement and Analysis - A team from Nankai University developed a Geopolitical Economic Risk Index based on national newspaper data from 1979 to June 2025, showing a significant increase in risk post-2018 due to events like the US-China trade friction [9][10] - The index has been validated against existing indices, demonstrating its comprehensive nature and relevance in assessing the impact of geopolitical economic risks on macroeconomic indicators [9][10] Group 3: Macroeconomic Impacts - Geopolitical economic risks negatively affect China's macroeconomy, with significant adverse spillover effects on industrial output, consumer confidence, and inflation [12][13] - The research indicates that a one standard deviation increase in geopolitical economic risk leads to a contraction in industrial output and a decline in consumer confidence, highlighting the demand shock nature of these risks [12][13] Group 4: International Trade and Investment - Geopolitical economic risks are reshaping global trade and investment systems, leading to a decline in bilateral trade volumes and prompting companies to diversify production bases and export markets [18][19] - The rise in trade barriers has reached historical peaks, significantly altering international trade dynamics, particularly in US-China trade relations [18][19] Group 5: Financial Systems and Currency Dynamics - The forum discussed the implications of financial sanctions and geopolitical risks on global payment systems, emphasizing the need for countries to seek alternatives to the SWIFT system [22][23] - The evolution of international reserve currency dynamics is influenced by geopolitical economic risks, with a notable trend towards diversification away from the US dollar [25][26] Group 6: Renminbi Internationalization - The rise in geopolitical economic risks has positively influenced the internationalization of the Renminbi, particularly in trade and investment, while maintaining its role as a supplementary option rather than a direct replacement for traditional currencies [28][29] - The forum highlighted the importance of stabilizing the Renminbi's value and enhancing market confidence to support its internationalization efforts [29]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of multilateral frameworks and regional cooperation in response to U.S. protectionism and unilateralism, as highlighted by Lin Yifu from Peking University [1] - China's trade data for May shows resilience despite external pressures, with exports to ASEAN, EU, Africa, and Central Asia growing significantly [2][4] - The decline in China's exports to the U.S. by 34.5% in May underscores the need for diversification in trade partnerships [3][4] Trade Performance - In May, China's total exports increased by 6.3% year-on-year, with notable growth rates of 16.9% to ASEAN, 13.7% to the EU, 35.3% to Africa, and 8.8% to Central Asia [1][2] - The World Bank has downgraded global economic growth expectations from 2.7% to 2.3% due to trade barriers and policy uncertainties [2] Structural Changes in Trade - China's trade structure is optimizing, with increasing exports to ASEAN, Africa, and Central Asia, which are seen as new growth points outside traditional markets [4] - The trade relationship between China and the EU is strengthening, with exports to the EU growing faster than overall exports, indicating a high degree of economic complementarity [6] Regional Cooperation - The article discusses the significance of regional cooperation, particularly with ASEAN, as a stabilizing factor for the Asia-Pacific economy and a model for multilateral free trade [4] - The ongoing economic dialogue between China and the UK reflects a renewed focus on cooperation, despite geopolitical tensions [7] Future Opportunities - Companies are encouraged to leverage the benefits of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to enhance competitiveness and market access [10] - There is a call for continued support for private enterprises in foreign trade, particularly in financing and risk management [11]