Core Insights - The "2025 International Currency Forum" held by Renmin University of China and Nankai University focused on the complexities and impacts of geopolitical economic risks in the current global landscape [1][3] - The forum emphasized the need for effective identification, assessment, and response to geopolitical economic risks to ensure national economic security and support high-quality development in China [3] Group 1: Geopolitical Economic Risks - Geopolitical economic risks are characterized by their complexity, interconnectivity, and suddenness, influenced by geopolitical conflicts, unilateralism, and protectionism [3] - The core features of geopolitical economic risks involve the use of economic means with diverse objectives, which can be either economic or political [6] - The long-term structural contradictions of geopolitical economic risks necessitate international cooperation and reform of the international monetary system to enhance resilience and inclusivity [7] Group 2: Measurement and Analysis - A team from Nankai University developed a Geopolitical Economic Risk Index based on national newspaper data from 1979 to June 2025, showing a significant increase in risk post-2018 due to events like the US-China trade friction [9][10] - The index has been validated against existing indices, demonstrating its comprehensive nature and relevance in assessing the impact of geopolitical economic risks on macroeconomic indicators [9][10] Group 3: Macroeconomic Impacts - Geopolitical economic risks negatively affect China's macroeconomy, with significant adverse spillover effects on industrial output, consumer confidence, and inflation [12][13] - The research indicates that a one standard deviation increase in geopolitical economic risk leads to a contraction in industrial output and a decline in consumer confidence, highlighting the demand shock nature of these risks [12][13] Group 4: International Trade and Investment - Geopolitical economic risks are reshaping global trade and investment systems, leading to a decline in bilateral trade volumes and prompting companies to diversify production bases and export markets [18][19] - The rise in trade barriers has reached historical peaks, significantly altering international trade dynamics, particularly in US-China trade relations [18][19] Group 5: Financial Systems and Currency Dynamics - The forum discussed the implications of financial sanctions and geopolitical risks on global payment systems, emphasizing the need for countries to seek alternatives to the SWIFT system [22][23] - The evolution of international reserve currency dynamics is influenced by geopolitical economic risks, with a notable trend towards diversification away from the US dollar [25][26] Group 6: Renminbi Internationalization - The rise in geopolitical economic risks has positively influenced the internationalization of the Renminbi, particularly in trade and investment, while maintaining its role as a supplementary option rather than a direct replacement for traditional currencies [28][29] - The forum highlighted the importance of stabilizing the Renminbi's value and enhancing market confidence to support its internationalization efforts [29]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of multilateral frameworks and regional cooperation in response to U.S. protectionism and unilateralism, as highlighted by Lin Yifu from Peking University [1] - China's trade data for May shows resilience despite external pressures, with exports to ASEAN, EU, Africa, and Central Asia growing significantly [2][4] - The decline in China's exports to the U.S. by 34.5% in May underscores the need for diversification in trade partnerships [3][4] Trade Performance - In May, China's total exports increased by 6.3% year-on-year, with notable growth rates of 16.9% to ASEAN, 13.7% to the EU, 35.3% to Africa, and 8.8% to Central Asia [1][2] - The World Bank has downgraded global economic growth expectations from 2.7% to 2.3% due to trade barriers and policy uncertainties [2] Structural Changes in Trade - China's trade structure is optimizing, with increasing exports to ASEAN, Africa, and Central Asia, which are seen as new growth points outside traditional markets [4] - The trade relationship between China and the EU is strengthening, with exports to the EU growing faster than overall exports, indicating a high degree of economic complementarity [6] Regional Cooperation - The article discusses the significance of regional cooperation, particularly with ASEAN, as a stabilizing factor for the Asia-Pacific economy and a model for multilateral free trade [4] - The ongoing economic dialogue between China and the UK reflects a renewed focus on cooperation, despite geopolitical tensions [7] Future Opportunities - Companies are encouraged to leverage the benefits of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to enhance competitiveness and market access [10] - There is a call for continued support for private enterprises in foreign trade, particularly in financing and risk management [11]