Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing geopolitical economic risks that pose systemic challenges to macroeconomic stability through various channels such as trade, investment, and financial markets, highlighting the importance of RMB internationalization as a strategic response to these uncertainties [1][11][14] - Since 2018, China's geopolitical economic risk has sharply increased, primarily due to the trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration, which has led to a fundamental shift in the international competitive landscape [5][6] - The article constructs a Geopolitical Economic Risk Index (GER) to reflect the dynamic evolution of geopolitical economic risks faced by China since 1979, showing a significant increase in risk levels post-2018 [3][5] Group 2 - The article identifies six key areas of geopolitical economic risk, including trade risk, investment risk, technology risk, financial risk, supply chain risk, and other risks, providing a detailed analysis of their evolution and relative importance [5][6][10] - Trade and investment risks have been significant drivers of the recent increase in geopolitical economic risks, with trade-related risks remaining at historically high levels since the onset of the US-China trade conflict [6][11] - The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated supply chain-related geopolitical economic risks, highlighting vulnerabilities in global production networks and prompting discussions on supply chain "decoupling" [7][11] Group 3 - Geopolitical economic risks have a profound impact on China's economy, suppressing foreign economic activities and altering corporate behavior towards prioritizing supply chain security over efficiency [11][12] - The rise in geopolitical economic risks leads to increased uncertainty in future cash flows for companies, resulting in higher equity risk premiums and lower stock prices, thereby affecting investor confidence [12][13] - The article emphasizes that geopolitical economic risks also influence domestic price levels, with supply chain disruptions and trade barriers contributing to inflationary pressures on consumer prices [13] Group 4 - RMB internationalization is positioned as a strategic measure to safeguard trade and supply chain security, reducing reliance on the US dollar and enhancing the resilience of China's economic framework [14][15] - A more internationalized RMB is expected to stabilize domestic financial markets and enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, providing a buffer against external shocks [16] - The article advocates for RMB internationalization as a means to participate in global economic governance and mitigate systemic risks associated with dollar hegemony, promoting a more balanced international monetary system [17][18]

Core Insights - The "2025 International Currency Forum" held by Renmin University of China and Nankai University focused on the complexities and impacts of geopolitical economic risks in the current global landscape [1][3] - The forum emphasized the need for effective identification, assessment, and response to geopolitical economic risks to ensure national economic security and support high-quality development in China [3] Group 1: Geopolitical Economic Risks - Geopolitical economic risks are characterized by their complexity, interconnectivity, and suddenness, influenced by geopolitical conflicts, unilateralism, and protectionism [3] - The core features of geopolitical economic risks involve the use of economic means with diverse objectives, which can be either economic or political [6] - The long-term structural contradictions of geopolitical economic risks necessitate international cooperation and reform of the international monetary system to enhance resilience and inclusivity [7] Group 2: Measurement and Analysis - A team from Nankai University developed a Geopolitical Economic Risk Index based on national newspaper data from 1979 to June 2025, showing a significant increase in risk post-2018 due to events like the US-China trade friction [9][10] - The index has been validated against existing indices, demonstrating its comprehensive nature and relevance in assessing the impact of geopolitical economic risks on macroeconomic indicators [9][10] Group 3: Macroeconomic Impacts - Geopolitical economic risks negatively affect China's macroeconomy, with significant adverse spillover effects on industrial output, consumer confidence, and inflation [12][13] - The research indicates that a one standard deviation increase in geopolitical economic risk leads to a contraction in industrial output and a decline in consumer confidence, highlighting the demand shock nature of these risks [12][13] Group 4: International Trade and Investment - Geopolitical economic risks are reshaping global trade and investment systems, leading to a decline in bilateral trade volumes and prompting companies to diversify production bases and export markets [18][19] - The rise in trade barriers has reached historical peaks, significantly altering international trade dynamics, particularly in US-China trade relations [18][19] Group 5: Financial Systems and Currency Dynamics - The forum discussed the implications of financial sanctions and geopolitical risks on global payment systems, emphasizing the need for countries to seek alternatives to the SWIFT system [22][23] - The evolution of international reserve currency dynamics is influenced by geopolitical economic risks, with a notable trend towards diversification away from the US dollar [25][26] Group 6: Renminbi Internationalization - The rise in geopolitical economic risks has positively influenced the internationalization of the Renminbi, particularly in trade and investment, while maintaining its role as a supplementary option rather than a direct replacement for traditional currencies [28][29] - The forum highlighted the importance of stabilizing the Renminbi's value and enhancing market confidence to support its internationalization efforts [29]

Group 1 - The forum highlighted the importance of the global financial system in mitigating geopolitical risks and ensuring the stability of international trade and supply chains [4] - The discussions emphasized the need for China to enhance its participation in global economic governance and strengthen international cooperation to counter systemic risks [4] - The forum presented various expert analyses on the definition and dimensions of geopolitical economic risks, noting the lack of a unified academic definition [7][8] Group 2 - The analysis revealed that geopolitical economic risks have a multifaceted impact on macroeconomics and financial markets, with positive effects on CPI and negative impacts on PPI, stock markets, exports, and FDI [10] - Research indicated that geopolitical economic risks lead to significant adverse spillover effects on China's financial markets and real economy, with key transmission channels identified as exchange rates, real estate, and credit markets [13][19] - The findings suggested that a moderately accommodative monetary policy could mitigate the negative impacts of geopolitical economic risks, while stabilizing the real estate and bond markets could prevent a ratchet effect [13] Group 3 - The forum discussed the transformation of the global trade and investment system due to geopolitical economic risks, leading to a decline in bilateral trade volumes and a shift in trade structures [18] - Empirical studies showed that trade barriers have reached peak levels since World War II, with significant adjustments in international trade patterns, particularly in U.S.-China trade [18][19] - The analysis pointed out that geopolitical risks have accelerated the restructuring of supply chains towards "nearshoring, friend-shoring, and diversification," emphasizing the need for security in supply chain management [19] Group 4 - The discussions included the impact of financial sanctions and geopolitical economic risks on the global payment system, highlighting the inefficiencies and risks associated with the SWIFT system [22] - The analysis indicated that the rise of geopolitical risks has led to a diversification of reserve currencies, with emerging currencies like the RMB gaining traction, although the USD remains a dominant safe haven [25][29] - The forum underscored the necessity for structural reforms and infrastructure optimization to enhance the RMB's international competitiveness and safe-haven attributes [30]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Renmin University indicates that the Renminbi Internationalization Index (RII) is on an upward trend, reflecting a gradual adjustment in the international monetary landscape driven by the internationalization of the Renminbi [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Renminbi Internationalization Index (RII) - The RII values for the end of each quarter in 2024 are projected to be 4.84, 7.40, 6.30, and 5.68, with an annual average of 6.06, representing an approximate 11% increase from the 2023 average of 5.46 [1]. - The upward trend in RII indicates a significant increase in the Renminbi's role in trade settlement, financial transactions, and official reserves [1][2]. Key Drivers of Growth - The primary drivers for the growth of RII in 2024 are direct investment transactions and cross-border trade settlements, contributing 83.48% and 27.25% respectively [1]. - The highest growth rates in global shares for Renminbi loans and direct investments are 46.65% and 16.82%, marking them as highlights for the year [2]. Geopolitical Economic Risks - The report emphasizes that global geopolitical economic risks are expected to deepen, stemming from internal contradictions within the global economic and financial structure [3]. - The negative spillover effects of these risks impact China's real economy and financial markets, as well as the international trade and investment system [3]. Global Payment System Dynamics - The report notes a trend towards diversification in the global payment system and official reserve currencies, which correlates with the rise in the geopolitical risk index and the RII [4].

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 International Monetary Forum" held in Beijing focused on "Geoeconomic Risks and Global Financial Governance Reform," discussing the implications of geoeconomic risks on the international monetary system and the internationalization of the Renminbi [1][2]. Group 1: Geoeconomic Risks - The report titled "Deepening Geoeconomic Risks" analyzes the sources and effects of geoeconomic risks, linking them to the internationalization of the Renminbi [2]. - It identifies that current geoeconomic risks stem from internal contradictions within the global economic and financial landscape, which are expected to deepen [2]. - The negative spillover effects of these risks have impacted China's real economy, financial markets, international trade, investment systems, global supply chains, and international financial markets [2]. Group 2: Renminbi Internationalization - The report suggests that promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi and driving reforms in the international monetary system are crucial for mitigating geoeconomic risks [2]. - Data indicates that as the geoeconomic risk index rises, the Renminbi internationalization index also increases, alongside diversification in the global payment system and official reserve currencies [2]. Group 3: Forum Structure and Participation - The forum featured four thematic discussions, including "Research Results on Geoeconomic Risks" and "Challenges of Digital Currency to the Global Monetary and Financial System" [3]. - The International Monetary Forum, initiated by Renmin University, has been held annually since 2012, attracting renowned experts and scholars from various regions to discuss significant theoretical and practical issues in international finance [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the current geopolitical economic risks stem from the concentrated outbreak of internal contradictions within the global economic and financial landscape, which will continue to deepen. Promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) and driving reforms in the international monetary system are seen as important directions to mitigate these risks [1][2]. - The Renminbi Internationalization Index (RII) shows an upward trend, indicating that the internationalization of the Renminbi is gradually adjusting the international monetary landscape. The RII values for the four quarters of 2024 are reported as 4.84, 7.40, 6.30, and 5.68, with an annual average of 6.06, reflecting an approximate 11% increase from the 2023 average of 5.46 [1][2]. - The report identifies the U.S. dollar-dominated international monetary financial system as a "center-periphery" network structure, with the U.S. being the main source of global geopolitical economic risks. The U.S. government can exploit its unique privileges associated with the dollar, using unilateral policies as economic weapons against other countries [2]. Group 2 - Geopolitical economic risks negatively impact China's real economy and financial markets, as well as the international trade investment system, global supply chains, and international financial markets. The internationalization of the Renminbi is viewed as an effective response to these risks [2]. - The report notes that the fragmentation of cross-border payment networks is becoming more pronounced due to geopolitical economic risks. While the dollar's international monetary status may be temporarily reinforced, the rise of regional and local currency settlements will exert long-term pressure on dollar hegemony [3]. - The report emphasizes the need for countries, including China, to prepare for the impacts of geopolitical economic risks initiated by central countries. It also calls for seeking fundamental solutions to these risks through perspectives such as great power strategic competition, international monetary system reform, and global financial governance reform [3].

Group 1 - The "2025 International Monetary Forum" focused on geopolitical economic risks and global financial governance reform, discussing strategies to address these risks and the impact of digital currencies on the international monetary system [1] - Experts emphasized the need for new solutions in global governance, with China positioning itself as a key player in financial governance reform through high-level financial openness and cautious internationalization of the RMB [1][2] - The current international monetary system, evolving from the Bretton Woods system, faces structural issues, including insufficient stability of the dollar-dominated financial system and weakened global confidence in the dollar zone [2] Group 2 - Five reform suggestions were proposed to improve the international monetary system, reduce negative spillover effects of monetary policy, reform international financial organizations, enhance international financial regulatory cooperation, and oppose financial hegemony [2] - The relationship between geopolitical economic risks and RMB internationalization was highlighted, indicating that rising geopolitical risk indices correlate with increased RMB internationalization indices [3] - The need for a market-oriented, rule-based approach to RMB internationalization was emphasized, focusing on optimizing asset quality, expanding long-term capital market entry, and strengthening the rule of law [3] Group 3 - The impact of digital currencies on the global financial landscape was discussed, with concerns raised about systemic financial risks associated with stablecoins and the potential instability of the dollar if the U.S. fails to address its twin deficits [3] - The global economic landscape is undergoing profound restructuring, driven by the U.S. and China, with trade, technology, resources, and climate being key influencing areas [4]

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 International Monetary Forum" held in Beijing focused on "Geoeconomic Risks and Global Financial Governance Reform," highlighting the need for new solutions in global governance amid rising geopolitical conflicts and financial instability [1][2]. Group 1: Forum Overview - The forum was co-hosted by Renmin University of China and Nankai University, attracting over 500 in-person attendees and more than 500,000 online viewers [1]. - Keynote speeches were delivered by prominent figures including former central bank governors and university presidents, discussing the implications of geoeconomic risks and the internationalization of the Renminbi [1][2][11]. Group 2: Key Themes and Discussions - The opening remarks emphasized the urgency for reform in global financial governance to address challenges posed by geopolitical tensions and protectionism [2][4]. - Discussions included the role of digital currencies in reshaping the international monetary system, with a focus on the risks associated with unilateral stablecoins and the need for a multilateral digital currency framework [4][14]. Group 3: Research Findings - The "2025 Renminbi Internationalization" report analyzed geoeconomic risks, linking them to the need for reform in the international monetary system and highlighting the negative spillover effects on China's economy and global supply chains [6]. - The report indicated that as the geoeconomic risk index rises, the Renminbi internationalization index also increases, suggesting a correlation between these two factors [6]. Group 4: Expert Insights - Former central bank officials called for a comprehensive reform of the international monetary system to mitigate the adverse effects of geoeconomic risks and promote currency diversification [11][15]. - Experts highlighted the importance of collaboration in the financial sector to address challenges posed by trade, technology, resources, and climate risks, emphasizing China's leadership in green transformation [14]. Group 5: Future Directions - The forum concluded with discussions on the necessity of a stable legal framework and market-oriented reforms to support the internationalization of the Renminbi and enhance China's position in the global financial system [16][27].

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 International Monetary Forum" will be held on July 27 in Beijing, focusing on "Geoeconomic Risks and Global Financial Governance Reform" with participation from renowned experts and scholars [2] Group 1: Forum Overview - The forum is co-hosted by Renmin University of China and Nankai University, with multiple institutions involved in its organization [2] - It has been held annually since 2012, making this the 14th edition, and aims to address significant theoretical and practical issues in international finance [5] Group 2: Key Discussion Topics - Topics include "Research on Geoeconomic Risks," "Challenges of Digital Currency to the Global Monetary and Financial System," "History, Current Status, and Future of Global Financial Governance," and "Innovation and Application of Financial Large Models" [2] - The forum will also feature the release of the "Renminbi Internationalization Research Results" [3] Group 3: Geoeconomic Risks - The 2025 research results focus on "Deepening Geoeconomic Risks," analyzing the logic, evolution, and strategies for addressing these risks amid global challenges such as US-China trade tensions and Middle Eastern conflicts [6] - The research provides a dual framework of theory and practice to understand the complexities of geoeconomic risks, emphasizing the need for balance between open cooperation and risk prevention [6]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 International Monetary Forum aims to address the challenges posed by geopolitical economic risks and the need for reform in global financial governance, emphasizing the importance of multilateral cooperation and resilience in the international monetary system [2][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The forum will be held on July 27, 2025, at Renmin University of China, co-hosted by Renmin University and Nankai University [4]. - It will feature an opening ceremony, the release of the "2025 Renminbi Internationalization Research Results," and multiple thematic forums focusing on geopolitical risks, cryptocurrencies, and global financial governance [3][4]. Group 2: Key Sessions and Participants - The opening ceremony will include speeches from prominent figures such as the presidents of Renmin University and Nankai University, and the release of research findings on geopolitical risks [5]. - Notable speakers include former central bank governors and experts from various financial institutions, indicating a high level of expertise and diverse perspectives [5][6]. Group 3: Thematic Focus - The forum will cover critical topics such as the evolution of geopolitical risks, their macroeconomic impacts, and their implications for trade and investment systems [6][7]. - Discussions will also explore the challenges posed by cryptocurrencies to the global monetary and financial system, highlighting the need for adaptive governance [7][8]. Group 4: Research and Reports - The forum will release the "2025 Financial Industry Large Model Application Report," showcasing innovations and applications in financial technology [11][12]. - The annual "Renminbi Internationalization Report" will also be presented, reflecting ongoing research and developments in the internationalization of the Renminbi [3][13].