文 | 古书奇谭 编辑 | 古书奇谭 曾经的全球资产安全岛美国国债，如今成了没人敢接的烫手山芋，中国财政部在香港发行的40亿美元主 权债券，却创下30倍认购率的奇迹，1182亿美元资金瞬间抢空。 一边是美国38万亿国债还不起本金，利息超军费，一边是中国美元债凭零违约信用被疯抢，全球资本弃 美投中，背后藏着怎样的金融逻辑？ 而且2024年美国国债利息支出已经突破1.1万亿美元，正式超过军费成为第一大财政负担，这种以债养 债的游戏，早就走到了崩溃的边缘。 2025年，穆迪把美国主权信用评级下调到AA1，一下子击碎了它最后一块3A信用招牌，让本就脆弱的 美债信用更是雪上加霜。 同样是美元计价的债券，为啥境遇能差这么多？其实答案特别简单，就跟咱们普通人选理财产品一个道 理，核心就看安全性和可靠性。 美国国债现在就像一款明摆着入不敷出、随时可能违约的高风险产品，而中国美元债就是家底厚实、信 用过硬的稳健资产。 全球金融市场的分化，现在看真是越来越明显，11月5日，中国财政部在香港推出40亿美元主权债券， 消息刚一公布，全球资本就像闻见香味的蜜蜂一样涌了过来。 各国央行、主权基金、国际顶尖投行这些聪明钱纷纷下场，最后以3 ...

前言 在全球金融市场暗流涌动的当下，一场不宣而战的信用博弈正在上演。 小李注意到，11月5日中国财政部在香港发行的40亿美元主权债券，以30倍认购率瞬间售罄的盛况，不仅创下全球资本追捧的纪录，更成为中美金融 博弈攻守转换的标志性事件。 资本用脚投票 全球投资者对中国美元债的狂热追捧，绝非偶然的市场冲动，总认购金额高达1182亿美元的数字背后，是专业投资机构对资产安全性的极致追求。 参与此次认购的并非普通散户，而是各国央行、主权基金、国际顶尖投行等"聪明钱"，其决策逻辑永远围绕"风险-收益"的最优解。 对比美国国债的尴尬处境，这种选择的合理性愈发清晰。 美国当前国债规模已突破38万亿美元，财政收入仅4万亿美元却要承担6万亿美元的年度支出，每年2万亿美元的缺口只能靠"借新还旧"维系。 更严峻的是，2024年美国国债利息支出已突破1.1万亿美元，超过军费成为第一大财政负担，这种"以债养债"的游戏早已濒临临界点。 穆迪2025年将美国主权信用评级下调至AA1，彻底击碎其最后一块3A信用招牌。 在小李看来，资本的流向从来不会说谎。 当中国以零违约的主权信用记录、每年超4000亿美元的贸易顺差、3万亿美元外汇储备的厚实家 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Virtual Asset Listed Companies Association (HKVALA) has been officially established, marking a new phase of "regulatory leadership and self-discipline" in the digital asset industry in Hong Kong [1][3] - The association was initiated by over 50 listed companies from Hong Kong, the US, and China, covering the entire industry chain including finance, technology, and real economy [3] - HKVALA aims to promote compliance innovation and large-scale application in frontier areas such as stablecoins and Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization, while establishing a long-term self-regulatory governance mechanism [3] Group 2 - Huaxing Capital is recognized for its expertise in the new economy and digital asset sectors, with its chairman, Xu Yanqing, appointed as the honorary president of HKVALA [1][3] - Huaxing Capital has announced a special budget of $100 million to fully enter the stablecoin and RWA sectors, and has formed a strategic partnership with YZi Labs to allocate $100 million in BNB [3] - Xu Yanqing emphasized that digital assets represent a historical opportunity for the restructuring of the global financial system, and Huaxing Capital will continue to uphold compliance and long-term value [3]

Group 1 - The global financial system is undergoing a transformation due to increasing uncertainty, with discussions on the future of the global monetary system highlighting the need for new multilateralism to reflect the changing global order [1][4][5] - Emerging economies are gaining more influence in the global financial system, with a shift from a US-centric model to a more multipolar structure, necessitating greater choice for developing countries [4][5] - The current economic model in China is transitioning from export-driven to domestic consumption-based, recognizing the importance of a large domestic market [5] Group 2 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank are expected to play a more significant role in managing potential financial crises, emphasizing the need for a restructured international system [7][8] - There is a call for the IMF to expand Special Drawing Rights (SDR) and increase the weight of the Chinese yuan in a diversified reserve system to alleviate pressure on the US dollar [8] - Regional development banks, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, are becoming increasingly important in the global financial landscape, providing a more diversified approach to development [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Asian currencies are experiencing a strong appreciation against the US dollar, driven by factors such as improved global market risk appetite, significant holdings of dollar assets by Asian exporters and insurers, and a slowdown in the US economy [1][2][3] - The offshore RMB has seen a substantial increase, with a rise of over 600 basis points on May 2 and more than 100 basis points on May 5, reaching a five-month high [2] - The New Taiwan Dollar has appreciated nearly 7% against the US dollar in recent trading days, marking its highest level since February 2023 [2] Group 2 - Global investors are adjusting their portfolios, leading to downward pressure on the US dollar, with non-US investors holding approximately $22 trillion in US assets, which constitutes about one-third of their total investment portfolio [3] - The performance of US tech stocks remains robust, but many companies express concerns about future prospects, leading investors to sell off US stocks at high prices [3] - The significant drop in oil prices has reduced import costs for Asian countries, potentially expanding trade surpluses and further supporting the appreciation of Asian currencies [3][5] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the long-term downtrend of the US dollar is unlikely to reverse fundamentally, with weakened confidence in US assets and limited potential for dollar rebounds [4][5] - The ongoing fiscal and current account deficits in the US are seen as constraints on the dollar's strength, while foreign investors are reducing their holdings of US assets [5] - The global rebalancing of asset allocation may just be beginning, as non-US governments are likely to stimulate their economies through fiscal policies, promoting capital repatriation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in the RMB exchange rate indices indicates a potential stabilization of the RMB against the USD, following a period of depreciation pressure, with expectations for continued stability in the exchange rate [1][5][6]. Exchange Rate Indices - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index rose to 96.29, up 0.15% week-on-week - The BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index reached 102.25, increasing by 0.11% week-on-week - The SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index reported 90.47, with a weekly increase of 0.03% [1][2]. USD Index and Market Dynamics - The USD index rebounded after four consecutive weeks of decline, closing at 99.58, a 0.36% increase for the week - The offshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.2889, up 148 points for the week, while the onshore RMB closed at 7.2862, gaining 177 points [5][6]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the depreciation pressure on the RMB has significantly eased, with expectations for the exchange rate to remain stable due to improved supply and demand in the foreign exchange market [5][6]. - The upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including non-farm payrolls and GDP figures, may influence the RMB exchange rate positively if they continue to show a cooling trend [8]. Global Economic Context - The IMF has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, reflecting concerns over U.S. economic performance and potential impacts on the global financial system [9][10]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent reports highlight rising global trade risks and uncertainties in U.S. debt sustainability, which could affect the overall financial landscape [9].