1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of global trade pattern reshaping and geopolitical evolution, the trade protectionism and tariff policies of the United States have led to increased economic and fiscal pressures in the US, Canada, Mexico, and the EU, and the sovereign credit risks of these regions have generally risen [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 United States - **Economic Risk**: Trade protectionism restrains the US economic outlook, and the inflation expectation caused by tariffs may limit the Fed's interest - rate cut, increasing the "stagflation" risk. The US economic growth rate is expected to slow to below 2% from 2025 - 2026 [3][5]. - **Policy Uncertainty**: The Trump administration's policies reduce the predictability of the US government's policy path, and political polarization intensifies, affecting policy continuity [3][6]. - **Fiscal Sustainability**: The US government's debt level and cost are rising. The tariff policy's effect on alleviating fiscal pressure is doubtful. The fiscal deficit rate is expected to remain above 7% in the medium - term, and the government debt - to - GDP ratio may rise above 110%. The debt interest burden is expected to rise to over 12% of fiscal revenue in 2025 [3][8]. - **Impact on Global System**: The US tariff policy weakens the credit of US dollar assets and may accelerate the evolution of the global governance system towards a more multi - polar and regionalized direction [8]. 3.2 Canada - **Economic Downturn**: Canada's high dependence on US exports makes it sensitive to external shocks. Its GDP growth expectation in 2025 is lowered to below 1%, and steel, aluminum, and energy product tariffs directly impact its exports and manufacturing [3][9]. - **Fiscal Pressure**: The combination of economic slowdown and high - interest rates increases the difficulty of debt management. The interest expenditure is expected to account for about 8.5% of federal fiscal revenue in 2025, and the fiscal deficit may expand [9]. 3.3 Mexico - **Economic Recession Pressure**: Tariff shocks increase the risk of economic recession. The IMF has significantly lowered Mexico's 2025 economic growth forecast to - 0.3%. The manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom - bust line, and inflation has risen [3][12]. - **Fiscal Challenges**: The fiscal deficit rate will remain at about 5% in 2025. The financial problems of Pemex and the contraction of exports may exacerbate fiscal sustainability risks [12]. - **Sovereign Credit Reassessment**: Mexico's sovereign credit needs to be re - evaluated, and its future depends on achieving re - balance in institutional stability, foreign trade substitution, and fiscal balance [13]. 3.4 EU - **Economic Challenges**: The eurozone economy faces slow growth and inflation. The GDP growth rate in 2025 is only 0.9%, and 1.2% in 2026. The US tariff policy may further weaken its growth power and competitiveness [16]. - **Fiscal Pressure**: EU countries' fiscal pressure is expanding. Defense spending will increase in the medium - to - long - term, and debt will accumulate further. Italy and France's debt - to - GDP ratios are expected to exceed the 2012 levels [19]. - **External Repayment Pressure**: The EU faces dual pressures of monetary policy and financing costs. Rising bond yields increase the government's refinancing cost, and the limited interest - rate cut space may increase the debt - servicing pressure of high - debt countries [20]. - **Governance Changes**: The deepening of tariff policies and geopolitical games accelerates the transformation of the European governance model. The increase in strategic autonomy and the differentiation of member states' geopolitical choices will lead to different sovereign credit risks [21].

最近美国国债市场波动较大，尤其是长端美债，如 10 年期美国国债利率水平 在前期经历了单周大幅上行之后，仍维持在较高的波动位置。相比之下，两年 期及更短期限的美债利率在前期上行后已回落至相对更低水平。衡量美国国债 波动率的 VIX 指数也显示出最近美债波动率有所抬升。 美债问题的破局及影响 20250126 摘要 • 美国国债利率快速上行受微观交易行为和宏观因素双重驱动。微观层面， 关税政策超预期和对特朗普政策的担忧引发流动性恐慌，导致国债抛售。 宏观层面，美元走弱反映市场对美元体系瓦解和美国主权债务风险的担忧， 美国主权信用违约掉期利差大幅抬升。 • 美国财政扩张对主权信用产生显著影响。疫情期间财政赤字高企，美联储 宽松政策掩盖了风险。2022 年后，美联储紧缩政策导致付息成本压力显 现，侵蚀主权信用，削弱财政效率。当前美国财政赤字率远超国际警戒线， 且持续扩张。 • 美国国债付息成本近期显著上升。低利率时期发行的国债陆续到期，再融 资导致存量国债平均付息成本中枢上移。联邦政府净利息支出占比持续上 升，超过赤字和财政收入的 20%。2025 年美国政府再次触及债务上限， 加剧了债务压力。 • 投资者对美债持 ...