欧洲复兴开发银行周四表示，美国关税已导致贸易路线重新调整，但对贸易的冲击并未像人们担心的那 样严重，这使得部分发展中经济体实现了高于预期的经济增长。 这家开发金融机构所覆盖的40个国家经济增长率达到3.4%，高于此前预测值。不过该银行警告，持续 的贸易动荡仍有可能破坏部分经济体的增长。 欧洲复兴开发银行首席经济学家贝Beata Javorcik表示："当前经济前景较去年秋季时更为乐观……我们 预计今年和明年的经济表现将优于去年。" 通胀放缓与大规模基建支出（尤其在欧洲）正提供支撑；报告同时显示，美国前总统特朗普的贸易关税 冲击，并未如预期那般剧烈。 该行目前预计，2026年经济增速为3.6%、2027年为3.7%——两项预测均较去年秋季的预期上调0.2个百 分点。 部分欧洲复兴开发银行覆盖国家对美出口甚至实现增长，尤以人工智能（AI）相关领域最为突出，这 些国家正逐步替代中国的对美出口份额。匈牙利、捷克、波兰均出口服务器、处理器、计算系统等AI 相关产品，有望从这一贸易格局转变中获益。 但Javorcik警告，关税的全面影响仍不明朗：报告追踪的多数贸易货物，在2025年4月"解放日"关税落地 前已运抵美国；加 ...

Core Insights - Turkey's official investment plan for 2026 allocates approximately 1.92 trillion lira (around 44.36 billion USD) for public investment projects, covering 3,857 major projects and a total of 13,887 specific initiatives [1] Investment Allocation - In 2026, 5,284 new projects will be included, consisting of 2,403 multi-year projects and 2,881 projects to be completed within the year [1] - Government-owned public institutions will bear 62.8% of the investment, while state-owned enterprises and privatized entities will account for 35.4%, with the remainder executed by revolving fund institutions and social security agencies [1] Focus Areas - Investment priorities are centered on earthquake risk response and projects with high socio-economic returns, with earthquake-related projects receiving 697 billion lira in funding [1] - The transportation and communication sectors receive the largest share of investment, accounting for 26.5% of the total budget, with high-standard railway projects allocated 145.6 billion lira [1]

Group 1 - The Moroccan government plans to invest a record $38 billion in public investment according to the 2026 budget draft, aimed at supporting strategic infrastructure projects [1] - The allocation of funds includes $17.97 billion for public institutions and enterprises, $13.28 billion for the national general budget and special treasury accounts, $4.5 billion for the Mohammed VI Investment Fund, and $2.25 billion for local government investment budgets [1] - Investment plans for public institutions and enterprises focus on key sectors of the national economy, including energy, telecommunications, housing, agriculture, electricity, drinking water, phosphates and their derivatives, and transportation infrastructure [1] Group 2 - The projects funded by special treasury accounts will focus on comprehensive regional development strategies, aiming to strengthen the national road network and support agriculture, water management, and forestry, as well as development in audiovisual, housing, justice, culture, and sports [1] - The local government investment budget will primarily be used to improve local infrastructure to enhance residents' well-being, including modern road and sanitation network expansion, construction of cultural, sports, and recreational facilities, and development of gardens and green spaces [1] - The bill aims to combine economic growth with inclusive development, ensuring that public investment directly benefits regions and citizens, marking 2026 as a significant turning point for national infrastructure modernization and public service enhancement [2]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs identifies five key opportunities reshaping Europe's growth prospects despite its long-term economic challenges [1][2] Group 1: Opportunities - The five driving factors for Europe's economic growth include increased public investment led by Germany and the EU recovery fund, established global leadership in emerging industries like green technology, financial market reforms aimed at activating idle savings, improved risk-sharing mechanisms, and significant growth potential from deepening the internal market [1][3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its real GDP forecast for the Eurozone by 1.2% by the end of 2027, while lowering the U.S. GDP forecast by 1.7% [1] Group 2: Structural Challenges - Europe faces four structural challenges: loss of competitiveness due to high energy prices, insufficient investment limiting growth potential, a suboptimal business environment compared to other developed markets, and long-term challenges from an aging population [2][3] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Goldman Sachs maintains a constructive outlook on Europe's growth over the next 2-3 years, predicting that Eurozone growth forecasts will exceed market consensus, particularly for Germany [4] - The firm anticipates rising long-term bond yields, a stronger euro, and increased stock allocations to Europe, which could provide upside potential [4] - There is an opportunity for policymakers to implement reforms that could lead to sustained improvements in Europe's economic performance [4]

Core Points - The German Federal Cabinet has approved the draft federal budget for 2026, emphasizing public investment as a key focus of government fiscal policy [1] - Total planned expenditure for the German federal government in 2026 is set at €520.5 billion, reflecting a 3.5% increase from the previous year [1] - Public investment is projected to reach a historic high of €126.7 billion, with funding directed towards transportation infrastructure, housing construction, digital development, and national defense [1] - Part of the funding will come from a special infrastructure fund established in March, which has a total scale of €500 billion [1] - The draft budget will be submitted to the Federal Diet for review and voting by the end of this year [1]

Core Points - The German federal cabinet has approved the draft budget for 2026, focusing on public investment as a key aspect of fiscal policy, with the investment scale reaching a new high following 2025 [1] - The total planned expenditure for the German federal government in 2026 is €520.5 billion, representing a 3.5% increase from the previous year [1] - Public investment is set to reach €126.7 billion, marking a historical peak, with funds directed towards transportation infrastructure, housing construction, digital development, and national defense [1] - A portion of the funding will come from a special infrastructure fund approved by the Bundestag in March, which has a total scale of €500 billion [1] - Analysts indicate that even with the special fund, it will be challenging to alleviate the tight fiscal resources, as current economic growth is weak and tax revenues have not met expectations [1] - The German Economic Institute has stated that the federal government's tax cuts and economic stimulus measures have further increased fiscal pressure, leading to an expanded fiscal gap [1] - The draft budget is expected to show a budget deficit of €172 billion from 2027 to 2029 [2] - The draft will be submitted to the Bundestag for review and voting by the end of this year [3]

Group 1 - The German federal cabinet has approved the 2026 federal budget draft, with public investment being a key focus of government fiscal policy, aiming to ensure employment and boost economic vitality [1] - The total planned expenditure for the German federal government in 2026 is €520.5 billion, representing a 3.5% increase from the previous year [1] - Public investment is set to reach a historical high of €126.7 billion, with funds directed towards transportation infrastructure, housing construction, digital development, and national defense [1] Group 2 - A special infrastructure fund, approved by the Federal Parliament in March, will contribute to the budget, with a total size of €500 billion [1] - Despite the establishment of the special fund, analysts indicate that it may not alleviate the tight fiscal resources, as economic growth is sluggish and tax revenues have not met expectations [1] - The federal budget draft anticipates a budget deficit of €172 billion from 2027 to 2029, which will be submitted for review and voting by the Federal Parliament by the end of this year [2]

Group 1 - The Vietnamese Prime Minister aims to boost exports to relevant markets through free trade agreements [1] - To promote domestic consumption, the government plans to increase public investment [1]