证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-01-29 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20260128：公积金改革可以撬动多少消费？ 核心观点：公积金改革可以释放多少消费潜力？公积金改革释放消费潜 能的主要途径在于降低居住成本，节省更多资金用于消费。通过三条具体 路径降低居住成本。一是租房提取扩容，通过降低门槛和放松限额，我们 预计长期可增加提取 3214 亿元；二是拓展使用范围，比如允许提取公积 金用于装修、物业费及水电燃料费，我们预计可盘活存量资金 1803 亿元； 三是进一步降低贷款利率，假设下调 0.5 个百分点，可节省利息支出约 134 亿元。三项合计可释放约 5151 亿元资金，按 70%的消费倾向计算， 理论上可拉动 3606 亿元消费，提升居民消费增速 0.7 个百分点。 风险提 示：（1）改革内容和推进节奏不及预期，目前公积金更多用于住房消费， 要拓展到其他居住领域，如物业费、装修等，大多还是地区性政策。（2） 如果其他因素出现变化，改革对消费的实质影响可能没有那么大。（3）房 地产市场出现新的变化。 宏观深度报告 20260128："雨 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20260128 公积金改革可以撬动多少消费？ 2026 年 01 月 28 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《"雨带北移"或推动 2026 年水利相 关投资录得较高增长》 2026-01-28 《如何以量化策略增厚信用债收益？ ——多资产系列报告（三）》 2026-01-27 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：公积金改革可以释放多少消费潜力？公积金改革释放消费潜 能的主要途径在于降低居住成本，节省更多资金用于消费。通过三条具 体路径降低居住成本。一是租房提取扩容，通过降低门槛和放松限额， 我们预计长期可增加提取 3214 亿元；二是拓展使用范围，比如允许提 取公积金用于装修、物业费及水电燃料费，我们预计可盘活存量资金 1803 亿元；三是进一步降低贷款利率，假设下调 0.5 个百分点，可节 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20260128 公积金改革可以撬动多少消费？ 2026 年 01 月 28 日 《"雨带北移"或推动 2026 年水利相 关投资录得较高增长》 2026-01-28 《如何以量化策略增厚信用债收益？ ——多资产系列报告（三）》 2026-01-27 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：公积金改革可以释放多少消费潜力？公积金改革释放消费潜 能的主要途径在于降低居住成本，节省更多资金用于消费。通过三条具 体路径降低居住成本。一是租房提取扩容，通过降低门槛和放松限额， 我们预计长期可增加提取 3214 亿元；二是拓展使用范围，比如允许提 取公积金用于装修、物业费及水电燃料费，我们预计可盘活存量资金 1803 亿元；三是进一步降低贷款利率，假设下调 0.5 个百分点，可节 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Economic Work Conference has outlined specific requirements for the real estate sector in the upcoming year, emphasizing the need for stability in the market and introducing new policy goals, directions, and tools [1][2]. Policy Changes Change 1: Policy Goals - The policy goal has shifted from "continuously promoting the stabilization of the real estate market" to "focusing on stabilizing the real estate market," indicating a stronger commitment to maintaining stability. This change reflects the current market conditions, where the housing market has entered a phase dominated by existing inventory, with second-hand housing transactions accounting for 45% of total transactions, and a narrowing decline in housing prices [3][4]. Change 2: Policy Direction - The focus has transitioned from "reasonably controlling new land supply" and "promoting the disposal of existing properties" to a new emphasis on "controlling increments, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply." The introduction of "optimizing supply" as a new term suggests a coordinated approach to policy implementation, where local governments must consider inventory levels while ensuring that supply meets public needs [5]. Change 3: Policy Tools - New policy tools have been introduced, including reforms to the housing provident fund and the promotion of "good housing" construction. The expansion of coverage for flexible employment individuals to access housing provident funds, even for rental purposes, and increased loan limits for home purchases aim to alleviate financial pressure on first-time buyers and those seeking improved housing [6][7]. Change 4: Emphasis on Urban Renewal - The term "urban renewal" has been prioritized in the policy framework, moving from a secondary position to a key focus area within the broader strategy to stimulate domestic demand. This shift highlights the importance of urban renewal initiatives in the upcoming economic agenda [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference has made clear deployments for the real estate work in the coming year, emphasizing the need to "stabilize the real estate market," indicating a shift in policy focus and approach compared to the previous year [1] Policy Objectives - The policy objective has shifted from "continuously promoting the stabilization of the real estate market" to "focusing on stabilizing the real estate market," highlighting a stronger commitment to maintaining stability [1] - In the first eleven months, while development investment has decreased, the housing market has entered a phase of stock, with the proportion of second-hand housing transactions reaching 45% of total transactions [1] - The decline in housing prices is narrowing, with some major cities experiencing year-on-year growth in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes [1] Policy Direction - The policy direction has changed from emphasizing "reasonable control of new land" and "promoting the disposal of existing properties" to clearly stating "controlling increments, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" as core directions [3] - The term "optimizing supply" is introduced for the first time, indicating a coordinated approach to address inventory issues while considering "livelihood security" and optimizing the structure of land supply [3] Policy Tools - The reform of housing provident funds and the construction of "good houses" have been identified as new policy focuses for the coming year [5] - The coverage for flexible employment individuals to contribute to housing provident funds will be expanded, allowing for withdrawals for rental purposes even if they do not purchase a home [5] - The orderly advancement of "good house" construction signifies a shift from quantity-driven housing products to quality-driven ones [5] Urban Renewal - The term "urban renewal" has been prioritized, moving from a secondary position to a key focus area in the first part of the economic work, indicating an increased emphasis and intensity in promoting urban renewal efforts [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Economic Work Conference has outlined specific requirements for the real estate sector in the upcoming year, emphasizing the need to stabilize the market while addressing risks in key areas [1][2]. Policy Objectives - The policy goal has shifted from "continuously promoting the stabilization of the real estate market" to "focusing on stabilizing the real estate market," indicating a core focus on maintaining stability [1]. - In the first eleven months, while development investment has declined, the housing market has entered a phase of stock management, with second-hand housing transactions accounting for 45% of total transaction volume, and the decline in housing prices is continuing to narrow [1]. Policy Directions - The previous emphasis on "reasonably controlling new land use" and "promoting the disposal of existing housing stock" has evolved to include "controlling quantity, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" as core directions, with "optimizing supply" being a new term introduced [2]. - The new policy will be a coordinated "combination punch," requiring local governments to consider inventory issues before land supply, while also addressing "people's livelihood guarantees" and optimizing the structure of land supply [2]. Policy Tools - The reform of housing provident funds and the construction of "good houses" have been identified as new policy focuses for the coming year, with plans to expand the coverage of flexible employment personnel for housing provident fund contributions [2]. - This will allow individuals to withdraw funds for rental purposes even if they do not purchase a home, and increased loan limits will help alleviate payment pressures for first-time buyers and those seeking improvements [2]. Urban Renewal - The term "urban renewal" has been elevated in importance, moving from a secondary position to a primary focus in the agenda, indicating an increased emphasis and effort in promoting urban renewal initiatives [2].

Policy Objectives - The policy objective has shifted from "continuously promoting the stabilization of the real estate market" to "focusing on stabilizing the real estate market," indicating a stronger commitment to maintaining stability [1] - In the first eleven months, although development investment has declined, the housing market has entered a phase of stock, with second-hand housing transactions accounting for 45% of total transactions, and the decline in housing prices is narrowing [1] Policy Direction - The new policy emphasizes "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" as core directions, with "optimizing supply" being a new term introduced, indicating a coordinated approach to address inventory issues while considering public welfare [2] Policy Tools - The reform of housing provident funds and the construction of "good houses" have been identified as new policy focuses, with plans to expand coverage for flexible employment individuals and increase loan limits to alleviate payment pressure for first-time buyers and those seeking improvements [3] - The orderly promotion of "good house" construction signifies a shift from quantity-driven housing products to quality-driven ones [3] Urban Renewal - The term "urban renewal" has been elevated in importance, moving from a secondary position to a primary focus in the context of domestic demand, indicating an increased emphasis and effort in urban renewal initiatives for the coming year [4]