稀土被称为"工业维生素"，是发展高科技与尖端技术不可或缺的关键资源。 我国的稀土储量和产量都位居世界前列，从手机屏幕、电动汽车电机到导弹制导系统，很多领域都离不开它。 近来，西方在关键矿产领域动作频频，先是针对俄罗斯能源设定价格上限，如今又把目光转向稀土，试图为本国产业争取更多优势。 但在这些摩拳擦掌的盟友中，英国却显得不太一样——它更像是搬了个小板凳在旁观望。 欧盟内部正在讨论设定稀土价格下限，并考虑是否对部分中国出口产品加税，以刺激本土投资。 美国已在今年7月为一家国内稀土企业提供了最低价格保障，这是其国防百亿投资计划的一部分。 澳大利亚和加拿大也各有打算，尚未完全跟进。 这些国家甚至考虑提高关键矿产领域的外资审查门槛，间接限制企业对中国的投资。 不过他们自己也在犹豫，是否真要如此直接地与中国"对冲"。 还有提议主张在采购时设定非中国稀土的比例，但各方意见仍然不一。 英国则似乎有自己的算盘。 上个月它发布了关键矿产战略，明确目标：到2035年，国内采矿要满足其10%的需求，回收再利用满足20%。 关键还得脚踏实地构建从开采、冶炼到制造的全产业链能力，而这需要时间、技术、资金和持久的市场耐心。 英国这种坐下 ...

Core Insights - The control of critical minerals essential for modern technology, such as rare earth elements, graphite, and germanium, is predominantly in China's hands, posing a strategic challenge for the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Mineral Dependency and Refining Challenges - The U.S. relies heavily on China for the refining of critical minerals, with China dominating the refining process for 31 out of 50 key minerals listed by the U.S. Geological Survey [2] - Despite having the second-largest rare earth mine, the U.S. must ship its raw materials to China for processing, highlighting a significant gap in domestic refining capabilities [2][4] - The U.S. has attempted to support domestic refining projects, such as a rare earth refinery in Nevada, but has faced delays due to a lack of core separation technology [4][7] Group 2: Impact of Export Restrictions and Tariffs - China's export restrictions on unrefined germanium have directly impacted U.S. semiconductor production, leading to a temporary shutdown of some production lines [6] - The U.S. has responded to these challenges by imposing tariffs on various minerals, but this has resulted in increased costs for American companies, such as Ford, which saw a $30 increase in battery costs due to tariffs on graphite [6][9] - The U.S. is also highly dependent on certain minerals, like antimony, which is critical for armor-piercing ammunition, complicating the imposition of tariffs [6] Group 3: Long-Term Strategies and Alternatives - The U.S. Department of Defense has invested significantly in domestic projects, with $439 million allocated over four years, but projects face environmental and regulatory hurdles [7] - The timeline for establishing new mining operations in the U.S. is lengthy, with some projects taking over a decade to receive necessary permits, while Chinese facilities can be operational in just 18 months [8][9] - Efforts to develop alternative materials, such as non-rare earth motors and sodium-ion batteries, are still in experimental stages and have not yet proven viable for high-end applications [8][9] Group 4: International Collaboration and Supply Chain Issues - The U.S. is seeking to build a "mineral security partnership" with allies, but countries like Australia and Canada are hesitant to invest in refining capabilities due to their own economic considerations [9] - The competition for critical minerals is a long-term strategic issue, with no immediate resolution in sight for the U.S. [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's update of the "critical minerals list" raises concerns about future economic relations with China, especially following recent trade agreements and China's response to rare earth exports [1][4]. Group 1: Critical Minerals List - The updated list includes ten new elements such as copper, silver, metallurgical coal, uranium, and boron, aimed at reducing dependence on foreign adversaries and expanding domestic production [3]. - The inclusion of these minerals will subject them to national security investigations under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, potentially leading to increased tariffs if supply risks are identified [4]. Group 2: Implications for U.S. Industry - Each newly added mineral corresponds directly to U.S. import dependence on China, indicating a strategic move by the Trump administration to create a "de-China" mineral supply chain [6]. - For instance, metallurgical coal, essential for steel production, has abundant domestic reserves but higher extraction costs compared to China, which could lead to increased production costs for U.S. steel companies if tariffs are imposed [7]. Group 3: Timing and Strategic Intent - The timing of the list's release coincides with the recent U.S.-China tariff truce and the gradual issuance of rare earth export licenses by China, suggesting a dual strategy to leverage both Chinese supplies and domestic production incentives [9]. - Despite the administration's optimistic outlook, challenges such as labor shortages, lengthy environmental approval processes, and outdated extraction technologies may hinder the effectiveness of these policies [9].