11月23日，如何看待沙特的稀土野心登上了热榜。那么，究竟发生了什么呢？11月19日，美国稀土公司MP Materials和美国国防部联手沙特阿拉伯的矿业公 司，决定在沙特建立一座现代化的稀土精炼厂。提到沙特，我们首先想到的往往是石油。 沙特的经济几乎完全依赖石油。它是世界上最大的石油出口国之一，石油收入占到国家总收入的约75%。根据最新的数据，我国的中石化和中石油紧随其 后。 沙特的富裕几乎完全与石油挂钩。沙特最大的石油公司沙特阿美，是全球石油行业的领导者之一。 然而，除了石油，沙特近年来还在推动经济多元化。它不仅在开采黄金和矿石等矿产资源，旅游业也逐渐发展，尤其是宗教旅游（去麦加朝圣）。现在，沙 特还鼓励普通游客访问，并已推出电子签证，吸引更多的游客。 尽管沙特大部分地区是沙漠，但它也有一些绿洲，种植椰枣、橄榄等作物，并大规模发展乳品养殖。 沙特在可再生能源方面也在加快步伐，太阳能和风能项目正在快速发展，计划在2030年前实现本地生产大部分设备。 乍一看，这个决定似乎有些不合逻辑，但其实是经过多方考虑的结果。首先，沙特在稀土领域几乎是零基础。美国的MP Materials（美国唯一还在运营的稀 土矿和加工 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid shift in U.S.-China relations following a brief period of cooperation, highlighting U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent's aggressive stance against China, particularly regarding rare earth elements, which are critical to various industries and military applications [1][4][6]. Group 1: U.S.-China Negotiations - The initial negotiations in Kuala Lumpur resulted in China agreeing to resume U.S. soybean purchases and extend the pause on rare earth export controls for another year, signaling a temporary easing of tensions [1][4]. - The subsequent comments from Bessent, labeling China as an "unreliable partner," indicate a quick reversal in tone and strategy, suggesting underlying concerns about U.S. leverage [4][6]. Group 2: Importance of Rare Earth Elements - Rare earth elements, comprising 17 metals, are essential for high-tech manufacturing, including smartphones, electric vehicle batteries, and military equipment like the F-35 fighter jet [7][9]. - China dominates the global rare earth market, controlling over 70% of production capacity and 95% of the refining process, creating a significant dependency for U.S. industries [9][11]. Group 3: U.S. Strategic Concerns - Bessent's aggressive rhetoric appears to stem from anxiety over U.S. reliance on Chinese rare earths, as efforts to establish alternative supply chains are costly and time-consuming, potentially taking 5 to 8 years to develop [11][22]. - The U.S. strategy to isolate China by rallying allies is challenged by China's simultaneous outreach to the EU, offering similar concessions on rare earth exports, which could undermine U.S. efforts [13][16]. Group 4: Future Implications - The article suggests that the real competition lies in who can adapt their supply chains more effectively within the next year, with the U.S. needing to strengthen its position while China maintains its advantages in refining and application [24][25].

迪穆哈梅多夫的数据让美国的"稀土自主梦"彻底破灭。他直言，美国想要重建镓产业，最少也需要5到10年时间，还得投入数十亿美元。这一番话看似行业 内幕，实则是对华盛顿的"稀土自给"梦想泼了一盆冷水，更藏着俄罗斯在这场中美博弈中的精妙算计。 在10月，尽管中美之间的关税战和稀土争斗愈演愈烈，俄罗斯却始终表现得格外冷静，仿佛坐在钓鱼台，稳如泰山。直到10月21日，俄罗斯稀有金属工业协 会主席迪穆哈梅多夫透露了一组重要数据，才让外界明白，原来普京根本不着急。这背后的深层逻辑逐渐浮出水面。 根据他的分析，美国每年需要30到50吨镓，但国内的产量几乎为零，80%的镓必须从中国进口。而镓的提取并不像简单开矿那么容易，它需要从铝业副产品 中提取，而美国连这方面的基础设施都还不齐全。即便特朗普政府曾信誓旦旦要"解决稀土危机"，现在看来，雄心壮志却成了空谈。即使美澳合作砸下85亿 美元建镓精炼厂，也得等3年才能投入生产，而且美国本土炼镓的成本是中国的2.3到2.8倍，环保审批也需要长达42个月。换句话说，就算美国最终建成了镓 产业，恐怕在5G都要升级到6G时，F35的雷达都已经过时了。 然而，迪穆哈梅多夫的言论背后，藏着三个微妙的 ...

Core Insights - China holds significant leverage in the global rare earth market, particularly with its control over rare earth refining technology, which is crucial for processing resources from other countries [3][6] - Thorium, previously considered waste, is now recognized as a valuable energy resource, with China controlling 74% of global thorium production [6][8] - The use of thorium in energy generation can drastically reduce electricity costs for consumers, with projections indicating potential future prices as low as 0.05 yuan per kilowatt-hour [12][14] Rare Earth Market - China possesses approximately 38% of the world's rare earth resources, making it a dominant player in the market [3] - Despite the U.S. efforts to establish its own rare earth facilities, the lack of refining technology means that most rare earth materials will still need to be processed in China [3][6] Thorium as an Energy Resource - Thorium can generate electricity equivalent to that produced by 350,000 tons of coal, highlighting its potential as a powerful energy source [5] - China's thorium reserves are abundant, with known reserves in Inner Mongolia sufficient to supply energy for over 200 years for the entire population [8][12] - The country has been utilizing thorium for energy production long before other nations, giving it a technological edge [8][9] Technological Advancements - China is applying advanced thorium technology in significant projects, such as its third aircraft carrier, which is expected to use thorium-based molten salt reactor technology [9] - The operational advantages of thorium reactors include higher safety, efficiency, and lower maintenance costs compared to traditional nuclear power [9][12] Economic Impact - The implementation of thorium energy has already led to a significant reduction in electricity costs in regions like Inner Mongolia, benefiting consumers [12] - Future projections suggest that electricity prices could decrease further, enhancing the economic well-being of households [12][14]

Group 1 - Indonesia is seeking to collaborate with the United States on key mineral projects, potentially undermining its relationship with China after receiving significant investment and technology from Chinese companies [1][6] - China has invested $5.9 billion in Indonesia to establish Southeast Asia's largest new energy battery production base, which includes technology transfer from nickel mining to battery manufacturing [1][2] - Indonesia's decision to engage with the U.S. is driven by the threat of a 32% tariff on its major exports, which could severely impact its economy, as the U.S. accounts for nearly 20% of Indonesia's foreign trade [1][2] Group 2 - The collaboration with the U.S. may not yield significant benefits for America, as over 90% of rare earth refining capacity is in China, and U.S. refining purity is inferior [2][3] - Indonesia's move to offer mineral development rights to the U.S. could backfire, as it still relies on Chinese technology for processing nickel and rare earths, which could take 6 to 8 years for the U.S. to establish production lines in Indonesia [2][3] - China's response includes imposing over 20% anti-dumping duties on Indonesian stainless steel products, indicating a strategic leverage over Indonesia's economy [2]

Core Insights - The recent US-China trade negotiations in London highlighted unexpected dynamics, with the US showing increased urgency to resolve trade issues, contrary to initial expectations that China would be more pressured [1][3] - The trade landscape has shifted, with China leveraging its control over rare earth exports as a counter to US technology restrictions, indicating a significant change in the power balance [3][5] - The US has struggled to form a coalition against China regarding tariffs, with limited support from other major trading partners, reflecting a broader discontent with protectionist policies [7] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The first meeting of the US-China trade negotiation mechanism took place in London, focusing on deeper issues such as US export controls on AI and chips [1] - The US delegation included high-ranking officials, indicating the importance placed on these discussions [1] Group 2: Rare Earths and Technology - China holds over 90% of the rare earth refining industry, despite having about one-third of global reserves, giving it a strategic advantage in high-tech sectors [5] - Following the announcement of US tariffs, China implemented export controls on certain rare earths, directly impacting US military production capabilities [5] Group 3: International Trade Dynamics - The US has not successfully built a coalition against China for tariff actions, with only the UK showing alignment, which underscores the challenges of unilateral trade policies [7] - China's response to US tariffs has been framed as a defense of fair international trade practices, gaining some international support [7]

Core Insights - The Trump administration is drafting an executive order to authorize U.S. companies to mine polymetallic nodules in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone of the Pacific, which are rich in nickel, cobalt, manganese, and rare earth elements, to bolster U.S. strategic reserves against potential conflicts with China [1] - The focus on rare earth exports has intensified following the suspension of tariffs between the U.S. and China, with the U.S. aiming to secure its access to rare earths while China views its dominance in this sector as a strategic advantage [1][3] - The U.S. military's heavy reliance on rare earth materials has raised concerns, as the majority of rare earth processing capabilities are concentrated in China, with over 80% of U.S. rare earth imports sourced from there [3][7] Industry Dynamics - Following China's announcement of export controls on seven categories of heavy rare earths, prices for rare earth metals have surged, with dysprosium prices doubling to $850 per kilogram and terbium prices increasing over 210% to $3,000 per kilogram [3] - The Chinese government has initiated measures to combat smuggling of strategic minerals, reminiscent of policies from 2010-2011 that led to a spike in global rare earth prices [5] - The U.S. faces challenges not only in mining but also in refining rare earths, as it has historically relied on China for processing, which complicates the supply chain for critical military applications [7]