1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing, with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. Short - term lead prices are expected to move in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, macro factors show some fluctuations, and fundamentally, there is an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season. LME zinc inventory decline overseas provides some support. Short - term zinc prices are expected to move in a range with limited downside [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Data - **Lead**: SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 0.15%; Shanghai lead futures main contract closed at 16,875 yuan/ton, up 0.12%; Shanghai lead basis was - 125 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; LME3 - month lead futures closed at 2,007 dollars/ton, up 0.50%; Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.41, down 0.38% [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,440 yuan/ton, up 0.81%; Shanghai zinc futures main contract closed at 22,580 yuan/ton, up 0.89%; Shanghai zinc basis was - 140 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; LME3 - month zinc futures closed at 2,815.5 dollars/ton, up 0.73%; Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.02, up 0.16% [1]. 3.2 Production and Supply Information - **Recycled Non - ferrous Metals**: The production of recycled copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc in China reached 1.915 billion tons, including 445 million tons of recycled copper and 1.055 billion tons of recycled aluminum. Recycled lithium salts and cobalt from waste new - energy batteries accounted for 10% and 14% of China's metal lithium salts and cobalt production respectively, and recycled rare - earth production accounted for 15% of China's rare - earth supply [1]. - **Zinc and Lead Mines**: Pan American Silver Corp's zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 was 12,600 tons, up 25% year - on - year; lead concentrate production was 6,000 tons, up 22% year - on - year. A zinc smelter in North China postponed its planned maintenance in September and October [1]. 3.3 Market Fundamentals - **Lead**: Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is relatively stable. For recycled lead, waste lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise, and some refineries have reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost inversion. Demand is expected to enter the peak season, but enterprises paused purchasing this week for inventory checks [1]. - **Zinc**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Production is increasing, but demand is in the off - season, and enterprises' operating rates have declined [1].

Report Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Casting aluminum alloy is an important part of China's non - ferrous metal industry. With the ceiling of primary aluminum production capacity reached, the supply increment of domestic aluminum will rely on recycled aluminum and imports. Recycled aluminum is a key direction for the green transformation of China's non - ferrous metals due to its low carbon emissions [14][31]. - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options will provide price signals, promote the green and low - carbon development of the aluminum industry, and help the national "dual carbon" strategy. It will also offer risk management tools for physical enterprises [65]. - The future development prospects of recycled aluminum are promising. With the arrival of the peak of scrap aluminum scrapping and policy support, the supply of recycled aluminum raw materials will be alleviated, and the output will gradually increase towards the targets of 1150000 tons in 2025 and 1800000 tons in 2030 [31]. Summary by Directory 1. Casting Aluminum Alloy Industry Introduction - Casting aluminum alloy is a type of aluminum alloy, and the upcoming casting aluminum alloy futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is for recycled casting aluminum alloy, with the delivery targets being 383Y.3 (GB/T8377 - 2016) and AD12.1 (JIS H 2118 - 2006), commonly known as ADC12 [7]. - The upstream of the recycled casting aluminum alloy industry chain is scrap aluminum recycling enterprises, and the downstream is mainly used in the automotive and other fields. ADC12 is the core grade in recycled casting aluminum alloy, with high strength, good pressure resistance, and low thermal brittleness, suitable for many automotive parts [9]. - Compared with primary aluminum, recycled aluminum has low carbon emissions and is in line with the "dual carbon" strategy. In the future, the domestic aluminum supply increment will rely on recycled aluminum and imports [14]. 2. China's Scrap Aluminum Supply Situation - Domestic scrap aluminum supply is mainly from domestic recycling, with imported scrap as a supplement. Domestic recycling includes new scrap (from the production process) and old scrap (from post - consumer products). The supply of old scrap is increasing as more scrap aluminum enters the recycling cycle [18][20]. - China has adjusted scrap aluminum import policies several times in recent years. In 2024, the scrap aluminum import volume reached 178500 tons, the highest since 2018, with a relatively dispersed import source [26][27]. - Overall, China's scrap aluminum supply has been tight in recent years, but with the arrival of the high - growth period of aluminum scrapping and policy adjustments, the supply of domestic old scrap will increase, supporting the rapid development of recycled aluminum [30]. 3. Casting Aluminum Alloy Supply and Demand Status - In 2024, the output of recycled casting aluminum alloy in China was 705000 tons, with a low capacity utilization rate of 50 - 60%. The industry is mainly composed of small and medium - sized private enterprises, with low market concentration [31][39][40]. - Since 2020, China has changed from a net exporter to a net importer of aluminum alloy ingots. In 2024, the import volume of aluminum alloy was 121200 tons, mainly from Malaysia and Thailand [42]. - The demand for casting aluminum alloy is mainly from the automotive industry. Although the proportion of recycled aluminum used in new energy vehicles is lower than that in fuel vehicles, the development of low - carbon aluminum alloy materials will expand the market space for recycled materials [48][53]. 4. Casting Aluminum Alloy Price Operation Characteristics - The price of ADC12 generally follows the trend of primary aluminum, but there are stage differences. In 2024, the industry average profit was - 25 yuan/ton, and the launch of futures can help hedge price risks [60]. - The price difference between different regions of ADC12 is small, while the price difference between different brands is obvious. The basis may fluctuate greatly at the initial stage of futures listing, providing arbitrage opportunities [61]. - There is a lack of high - frequency data on ADC12, and the social inventory is low and has little practical value for judging supply and demand [61]. 5. Casting Aluminum Alloy Futures Contract Text (Listing Version) - The trading unit of the casting aluminum alloy futures contract is 10 tons/hand, the minimum price change is 5 yuan/ton, and the daily price limit is ±3% of the previous trading day's settlement price. The contract months are from January to December [67]. - The delivery unit is 30 tons, and the delivery grade is casting aluminum alloy ingots that meet specific quality requirements, including chemical composition, pinhole degree, slag inclusion, etc. [68]. 6. Casting Aluminum Alloy Futures Business Rules (Listing Version) - It includes trading rules, delivery rules, fee standards, invoice processes, and risk management systems. For example, the minimum trading margin is 5% of the contract value, and the margin increases at different stages of the contract [72][85]. - The delivery process involves multiple aspects such as product quality inspection, packaging requirements, and document requirements. The delivery fee is 2 yuan/ton, and it is temporarily exempted until December 31, 2025 (except for high - frequency traders) [74][80]. - In terms of invoice processes, the seller needs to issue a VAT special invoice to the buyer, and there are corresponding regulations on the time of invoice issuance and the handling of late - issued invoices [81].