近期，港股有色金属板块集体走高，针对投资者关心的行情是否可延续性这一问题，长城基金国际业务 部副总经理、基金经理曲少杰表示，有色及资源行业正处于全球向好环境，且这一行情仍有望持续。 曲少杰称，短期来看，资源、电力及有色等行业受益于"反内卷"逻辑下的供给不足。发改委、工信部相 继出台文件指出，行业"内卷"会收窄整体利润空间，影响可持续发展，并提出三项分类施策举措：一是 借鉴电解铝经验，为铜、铅、锌等大宗金属设立产能"天花板"，严控新增产能；二是对战略金属实施兼 并重组，提升行业集中度，增强产业链控制能力；三是在保持深加工产业充分竞争的同时，引导企业向 个性化、高附加值方向转型，避免同质化竞争。 从中期维度分析，曲少杰认为，美联储降息计划、市场供需失衡、电力基础设施建设推进等因素，共同 构成行业发展利好。长期而言，他认为人工智能发展离不开算力支撑，中美等主要国家正加大算力中心 建设力度，但"缺电"问题制约了AI产业发展。AI算力中心对能源电力及金属的新增需求，已突破原有供 需逻辑，既加剧了电力供应紧张，也大幅提升了油气、铜铝等金属的市场需求。 总体而言，曲少杰认为，2026年资源有色相关行业或将延续供给不足、需求 ...

星标 ★ IPO日报 精彩文章第一时间推送 2025年，A股走出喜人的牛市行情，2026年又将会有什么样的表现？ 在记者的采访中，机构们纷纷预测，A股及全球股市有望延续牛市行情，并乐观预计 2026年可见到10%的指数涨幅，驱动逻辑是从估值修复转向盈利增长。专业人士认为，2026年的市场将更注重盈利兑现，科技与资源品被视为两大投资主 线。不过内需不足、贸易摩擦及房地产等风险因素仍需密切关注。 张力制图 01 / 牛市行情 "2026年A股、港股、美股都将延续当前的牛市行情，共振上行。核心逻辑来自全球流动性宽松周期持续、经济复苏、人工智能（AI）产业高速发展和资 源品价格上涨。"中信建投证券策略资深分析师夏凡捷在接受记者采访时表示，整体而言，支持牛市的核心逻辑预计仍将延续甚至强化。 夏凡捷认为，本 轮牛市以政策转向为起点，以流动性改善为核心，同时受到科技产业景气突破、中美博弈态势变化和全球资产配置调整等多方面因素的共同作用。他认 为，2026年全球流动性宽松格局将进一步深化，弱美元周期下人民币有望持续走强；与此同时，国内金融市场政策红利持续增厚，个人投资者入市的动力 正在增强，A股市场增量资金有望更大。 "20 ...

今天的走势 昨天黄金震荡收窄，支撑上移。 就像压缩的弹簧，美盘突破，直接冲高。 不过意外的是，面临4380又掉了下来。 急涨后急跌，短期内调整的需求，今天再探4307的位置。 也是昨天的低位，特别是下方的4300的关口。 黄金震荡整理，接连闯关4350阻力区域后。终于突破大涨，冲高狂飙70美金后，再次快速回落跳水，再 守4300的关口。 再守4300的关口，上方再次反弹。 上方继续看4353的位置，关注此位置得失。 再次上破，看上方4380的阻力。 当然了，黄金快速回落，下方失守4300，那么看向4270的支撑。 黄金本月横盘突破后，多头震荡上扬，一步一脚印，整体狂揽超200美金。走出了一个涨势通道，单边 上涨的曲线。依然未见明显回调迹象，上方再次延续，刷历史新高看向4400或者更高的区域。同时，下 方可调整空间，可看向4270的区域。 操作方面，黄金整体震荡走强，依然看涨延续，关注4300-4307区域和4270做多的机会。此外，黄金短 期内调整需求，关注4353和4380做空的机会。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，欧英央行靴子落地，英央行降息25基点，欧央行原地不动，毫无悬念的结果，波澜不大。不过 两大央行释放 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent trends in gold prices, highlighting a significant point to watch as expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut rise, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a corresponding increase in precious metals like gold and silver, as well as base metals such as copper and aluminum [3] - The anticipated peak of this trend is expected around December 10, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a cautionary note on potential short-term pullbacks following the realization of these gains [3] - The US stock market is experiencing a dual effect of benefiting initially from rate cut expectations but may face pressure post-decision due to narrowing interest rate differentials between the US and other major economies, potentially leading to capital outflows [3] Group 2 - The narrowing of the 10-year Treasury yield spread between China and the US could result in some US dollar funds returning to markets like China and Japan, especially if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates in December, which would further compress the US-Japan yield spread [3] - The recent rise of the Japanese yen against the US dollar is seen as an early signal of capital returning to Japan [3]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy** and its macroeconomic outlook for **2026**. The GDP growth target is set around **5%** with a focus on supply-side upgrades and demand-side boosts [1][31]. Key Points and Arguments Economic Growth and Policy - **Growth Model Shift**: Transition from traditional factor-driven growth to innovation-driven growth, with significant changes in supply-demand dynamics [3][34]. - **Reform and Opening Up**: Emphasis on high-level institutional opening and the construction of a unified domestic market [3]. - **Risk Prevention**: Attention to Sino-U.S. relations and domestic price issues, focusing on livelihood, security, and financial stability [3][32]. - **Internal Momentum Reconstruction**: 2026 is viewed as a year for profound internal momentum reconstruction, technological innovation, and industrial upgrading [3][31]. Monetary and Fiscal Policy - **Monetary Policy**: Expected to approach its end in 2026, with limited downward space for the ten-year government bond yield, and a focus on supporting manufacturing through corporate loans [2][8][14]. - **Fiscal Policy**: A conservative approach with a deficit rate of approximately **4%** (narrowly defined) and **8.3%** (broadly defined), emphasizing stability and resource mobilization [33][31]. Investment Strategies - **Asset Allocation**: Favorable outlook on copper and aluminum assets, driven by recovery logic and technological capital expenditure [4][7]. - **Fixed Income Strategy**: Conservative interest rate strategies are recommended, with a focus on individual opportunities around key dates like New Year and Spring Festival [9][10][17]. - **Long-term Investment Guidance**: Attention to long cycles such as the Kondratiev, Kuznets, and Juglar cycles, with expectations of a rising medium to long-term interest rate center [12][13]. Market Dynamics - **Real Estate Market**: Potential recovery in the real estate market if external demand improves, with expectations of a positive PPI growth rate in 2026 [6][32]. - **Global Capital Markets**: The main narrative revolves around the U.S.-China tech and security competition, with increased capital expenditure in technology sectors [5][21]. Risks and Challenges - **U.S. Market Volatility**: Increased volatility in the U.S. stock market is anticipated due to uncertainties surrounding AI commercialization and employment market deterioration [19][23]. - **Debt Financing Risks**: Concerns over the ability of large tech companies to sustain high capital expenditures through debt financing, which could pose significant risks if AI commercialization does not materialize [21][22]. Consumer and Investment Outlook - **Consumer Spending**: Expected to strengthen with increased policy support, although its current impact is limited [32][38]. - **Investment Focus**: Future investments will target major infrastructure projects, data centers, and energy security, aligning with national strategic priorities [38]. Additional Important Insights - **Long-term Asset Outlook**: Transition from old narratives of low-cost advantages to new narratives focusing on technological innovation and productivity improvements [34][35]. - **Five-Year Planning Impact**: The influence of five-year plans on investment strategies is highlighted, with a focus on sectors like renewable energy and technology [36][37]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated economic landscape for 2026 and beyond.

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rise on November 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high, driven by significant gains in energy metals and a positive outlook for the recycling of non-ferrous metals in China [2] Industry Summary - The non-ferrous metals industry in China is witnessing rapid growth, with production expected to increase from 14.5 million tons at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan to 19.15 million tons by the end of 2024, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 7.2% [2] - By the end of 2025, production is anticipated to exceed 20 million tons for the first time, positioning the industry as a crucial solution to resource and environmental bottlenecks [2] Company Summary - Several companies in the energy metals sector, such as Yongxing Materials, Rongjie Co., and Shengxin Lithium Energy, saw their stock prices hit the daily limit, while Tianqi Lithium, Huayou Cobalt, and Ganfeng Lithium also experienced significant gains [2] - According to Dongfang Securities, the non-ferrous metals sector is entering a new cycle driven by supply-demand balance, with a focus on gold, lithium, rare metals, tungsten, and copper-aluminum [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S.-China trade relations on the stock markets, particularly focusing on A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks, as well as the broader implications for the technology and resource sectors. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Reaction to Trade Tensions** The U.S. threat to increase tariffs has led to significant market pullbacks across A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks, with A50 futures and the Hang Seng Tech Index experiencing declines of approximately 4-5% [3][4][6] 2. **Investor Sentiment Improvement** Compared to April, the current market sentiment regarding U.S.-China relations has improved, with investors showing increased confidence in the ongoing negotiations and the resilience of Chinese exports [4][5][6] 3. **Key Upcoming Dates** Important upcoming events include a U.S.-China meeting in the next two weeks and a tariff expiration date in early November, which could influence market dynamics [6][7] 4. **Market Position and Valuation** Current market positions and valuations are higher than in April, but the impact of recent events is expected to be less severe due to the strengthening of the Chinese economy and increased capital support [7][8] 5. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** A contrarian investment strategy is advised, focusing on increasing allocations in the technology sector, particularly in hard tech areas such as AI computing power and energy storage, as well as precious metals like gold and resource metals such as copper and aluminum [8][9] 6. **Short-term and Long-term Focus** In the short term, sectors like telecommunications, coal, oil, and agriculture are recommended for risk mitigation, while long-term excess returns may be challenging. Attention should also be given to sectors with recovering demand, such as certain chemicals, lithium batteries, and base metals [9] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Trade Friction as a Short-term Disturbance** The current trade friction is viewed as a short-term disturbance rather than a long-term trend, suggesting that the underlying industrial trends and economic recovery should be trusted [2][9] 2. **Potential for Market Recovery** There is an expectation that Trump's negotiation tactics may lead to a retreat from aggressive tariff increases, providing opportunities for market recovery [6][7] 3. **Confidence in Chinese Export Resilience** The resilience of Chinese exports across technology, consumption, and manufacturing sectors has been validated, contributing to a more optimistic outlook [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth shows a deep decline in the container shipping freight index at a low level, with power plant daily consumption experiencing a seasonal decline, and inflation marked by a further drop in pork prices [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth: Deep Decline in Container Shipping Freight Index at a Low Level 3.1.1 Production: Seasonal Decline in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has declined seasonally. On September 23, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 864,000 tons, a 4.0% decrease from September 16. On September 17, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.262 million tons, a 0.4% decrease from September 10 [4]. - The blast furnace operating rate has continued to rise. On September 19, the national blast furnace operating rate was 84.0%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from September 12, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.4%, also a 0.2 - percentage - point increase. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 93.0% on September 19, a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from September 12 [4]. - The tire operating rate has rebounded moderately. On September 18, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 65.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from September 11, and that of passenger car semi - steel tires was 73.7%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase [4]. - The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has slightly declined. On September 18, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 91.5%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from September 11, while the operating rate of downstream looms was 62.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease [4]. 3.1.2 Demand: New Home Sales in 30 Cities Exceeded the Same Period Last Year - From September 1 - 23, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 210,000 square meters, an 8.8% increase from the same period in August, a 13.7% increase from September last year, and a 30.6% decrease from September 2023 [4]. - The retail trend in the auto market has been stable. In September, retail sales increased by 1% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 0% year - on - year [4]. - Steel prices have been weak. On September 23, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.9%, 1.1%, 2.0%, and increased by 0.03% respectively compared to September 16 [4]. - Cement prices have weakly rebounded. On September 23, the national cement price index increased by 2.3% compared to September 16, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions rising by 3.5% and 4.8% respectively [4]. - Glass prices have fluctuated widely. On September 23, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,181 yuan/ton, a 4.4% decrease from September 16 [4]. - The container shipping freight index has deeply declined at a low level. On September 19, the CCFI index decreased by 0.5% compared to September 12, and the SCFI index dropped by 14.3% [4]. 3.2 Inflation: Further Drop in Pork Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Further Drop in Pork Prices - Pork prices have further declined. On September 23, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.6 yuan/kg, a 1.6% decrease from September 16 [4]. - The agricultural product price index has moderately rebounded. On September 23, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.2% compared to September 16. By variety, eggs (up 4.4%) > fruits (up 1.3%) > mutton (up 0.6%) > chicken (up 0.5%) > beef (up 0.4%) > vegetables (up 0.2%) > pork (down 1.6%) [4]. 3.2.2 PPI: Weak Oscillation in Oil Prices - Oil prices have shown a weak oscillation. On September 23, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $68.6 and $63.4 per barrel respectively, a 0.03% and 1.7% decrease from September 16 [4]. - Copper and aluminum prices have turned down. On September 23, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 1.7% and 2.9% respectively compared to September 16 [4]. - The decline in the domestic commodity index has widened on a month - on - month basis. On September 23, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 2.1% compared to September 16, and the CRB index decreased by 1.3% [4].

Supply and Demand - Construction starts are showing marginal improvement, with recent weeks indicating a recovery in asphalt plant operating rates and cement dispatch rates, although they remain at historical lows[2] - Industrial production remains at a historically high level, with PX operating rates maintaining high levels while PTA rates are at historical lows[2] - Demand in construction remains weak, with negative year-on-year growth in construction demand and a decline in automobile sales[2] Commodity Prices - Gold prices have significantly increased, while oil prices are fluctuating weakly; copper and aluminum prices are also on the rise[3] - Domestic industrial prices are experiencing limited support from demand, leading to overall price fluctuations[3] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions have turned positive year-on-year, with a 23% decrease in average transaction area in major cities compared to the previous two weeks, but still showing improvement compared to 2023 and 2024[4] - Second-hand housing transactions are showing marginal improvement, with transaction volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increasing year-on-year by -2%, +26%, and +23% respectively[4] Exports - Exports for the first 14 days of September are estimated to have increased by approximately 4.1% year-on-year, supported by high-frequency port data[5] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in funding rates, with R007 at 1.47% and DR007 at 1.46% as of September 14[72] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 24,315 billion yuan through reverse repos in recent weeks[72] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[77]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the coal industry and its impact on the broader economy, particularly in relation to the "anti-involution" policy aimed at addressing insufficient domestic demand and industry profit issues [1][2][3]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Anti-Involution Policy Goals**: - The policy aims to break the negative cycle of government revenue and corporate profits, focusing on industries like photovoltaic and new energy [1]. - Short-term goals include restraining corporate debt risks, while long-term goals focus on preventing local government risks and stabilizing the Producer Price Index (PPI) [2][3]. 2. **Importance of PPI**: - PPI's year-on-year growth is crucial as it directly affects corporate profitability and overall economic health. Continuous decline in PPI can lead to increased price competition and significant corporate losses [4][5]. - Measures to boost PPI include controlling overcapacity, increasing industry concentration, improving demand-side management, and enhancing regulatory oversight [5][6]. 3. **Commodity Price Management**: - Managing the prices of major commodities like coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals is seen as the most effective way to achieve PPI stabilization [7][9]. - A 1.42% increase in coal prices can lead to a 1% increase in overall PPI, indicating a strong elasticity in traditional commodities [9]. 4. **Specific Price Increase Requirements**: - To achieve a positive PPI by the end of the year, coal prices need to rise by 34% compared to the June average if coal is the only focus. However, if coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals all increase by 8%, PPI can return to positive growth [10][15]. 5. **Challenges and Future Trends**: - The difficulty of achieving PPI growth is likened to the challenge of gaining admission to a prestigious university, indicating significant hurdles ahead [10]. - Current price increases in coal (12%) and steel (5%) are still below the required levels, and future price movements will depend on policy clarity and market conditions [12][16]. Other Important Insights - **Debt Risk Management**: - The anti-involution policy is fundamentally about managing debt risks, particularly in industries like photovoltaic and new energy, which have seen a spread of debt issues [2][15]. - The focus is on fostering profitable enterprises rather than merely increasing production capacity to mitigate local government risks [2][3]. - **Market Expectations**: - The timing of policy announcements is crucial, with expectations for clarity in September to guide market behavior [14]. - The potential for extreme price increases in coal is low, as the current policy approach is more market-oriented, aiming to balance upstream and downstream profit distributions [17]. - **GDP Projections**: - The GDP performance for the second half of 2025 is expected to remain stable, influenced by external export demands and domestic infrastructure projects [18]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, focusing on the coal industry and its implications for the broader economic landscape.