总量团队联合展望 - 2026 年度策略报告汇报会议 20251119 摘要 2026 年中国经济预计将经历供给端升级和需求端提振，GDP 目标或设 定在 5%左右，财政政策稳健，货币政策支持国家战略，关注中美关系 和国内价格问题。 全球资本市场主线围绕中美科技与安全竞赛展开，科技资本开支增加， 看好铜铝等有色金属资产，以及中美科技股，美国中期选举对经济稳定 有诉求。 外需复苏可能缓解房地产市场跌势，预计 2026 年 PPI 同比增速转正， 风险资产优于避险资产，市场对房地产的悲观预期或将逆转。 2026 年固收投资策略倾向于保守票息策略，信用利差处于极低位置， 不建议信用加仓，关注元旦、春节前后信贷续接及非标债务续接等个体 性机会。 长周期对债券投资具指导意义，关注康波周期、库兹涅茨周期和朱格拉 周期变化，预计中长期利率中枢上移，政策精准针对经济堵点和痛点。 Q&A 未来一年中国宏观经济将会有哪些变化？哪些政策值得期待？ 未来一年，中国宏观经济将经历显著变化，主要体现在以下几个方面： 预计 2026 年货币政策接近尾声，十年国债利率下行空间有限，企业贷 款对制造业支持充分，土地部门风险出清依赖政府，反内卷 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rise on November 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high, driven by significant gains in energy metals and a positive outlook for the recycling of non-ferrous metals in China [2] Industry Summary - The non-ferrous metals industry in China is witnessing rapid growth, with production expected to increase from 14.5 million tons at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan to 19.15 million tons by the end of 2024, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 7.2% [2] - By the end of 2025, production is anticipated to exceed 20 million tons for the first time, positioning the industry as a crucial solution to resource and environmental bottlenecks [2] Company Summary - Several companies in the energy metals sector, such as Yongxing Materials, Rongjie Co., and Shengxin Lithium Energy, saw their stock prices hit the daily limit, while Tianqi Lithium, Huayou Cobalt, and Ganfeng Lithium also experienced significant gains [2] - According to Dongfang Securities, the non-ferrous metals sector is entering a new cycle driven by supply-demand balance, with a focus on gold, lithium, rare metals, tungsten, and copper-aluminum [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S.-China trade relations on the stock markets, particularly focusing on A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks, as well as the broader implications for the technology and resource sectors. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Reaction to Trade Tensions** The U.S. threat to increase tariffs has led to significant market pullbacks across A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks, with A50 futures and the Hang Seng Tech Index experiencing declines of approximately 4-5% [3][4][6] 2. **Investor Sentiment Improvement** Compared to April, the current market sentiment regarding U.S.-China relations has improved, with investors showing increased confidence in the ongoing negotiations and the resilience of Chinese exports [4][5][6] 3. **Key Upcoming Dates** Important upcoming events include a U.S.-China meeting in the next two weeks and a tariff expiration date in early November, which could influence market dynamics [6][7] 4. **Market Position and Valuation** Current market positions and valuations are higher than in April, but the impact of recent events is expected to be less severe due to the strengthening of the Chinese economy and increased capital support [7][8] 5. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** A contrarian investment strategy is advised, focusing on increasing allocations in the technology sector, particularly in hard tech areas such as AI computing power and energy storage, as well as precious metals like gold and resource metals such as copper and aluminum [8][9] 6. **Short-term and Long-term Focus** In the short term, sectors like telecommunications, coal, oil, and agriculture are recommended for risk mitigation, while long-term excess returns may be challenging. Attention should also be given to sectors with recovering demand, such as certain chemicals, lithium batteries, and base metals [9] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Trade Friction as a Short-term Disturbance** The current trade friction is viewed as a short-term disturbance rather than a long-term trend, suggesting that the underlying industrial trends and economic recovery should be trusted [2][9] 2. **Potential for Market Recovery** There is an expectation that Trump's negotiation tactics may lead to a retreat from aggressive tariff increases, providing opportunities for market recovery [6][7] 3. **Confidence in Chinese Export Resilience** The resilience of Chinese exports across technology, consumption, and manufacturing sectors has been validated, contributing to a more optimistic outlook [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth shows a deep decline in the container shipping freight index at a low level, with power plant daily consumption experiencing a seasonal decline, and inflation marked by a further drop in pork prices [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth: Deep Decline in Container Shipping Freight Index at a Low Level 3.1.1 Production: Seasonal Decline in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has declined seasonally. On September 23, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 864,000 tons, a 4.0% decrease from September 16. On September 17, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.262 million tons, a 0.4% decrease from September 10 [4]. - The blast furnace operating rate has continued to rise. On September 19, the national blast furnace operating rate was 84.0%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from September 12, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.4%, also a 0.2 - percentage - point increase. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 93.0% on September 19, a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from September 12 [4]. - The tire operating rate has rebounded moderately. On September 18, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 65.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from September 11, and that of passenger car semi - steel tires was 73.7%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase [4]. - The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has slightly declined. On September 18, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 91.5%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from September 11, while the operating rate of downstream looms was 62.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease [4]. 3.1.2 Demand: New Home Sales in 30 Cities Exceeded the Same Period Last Year - From September 1 - 23, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 210,000 square meters, an 8.8% increase from the same period in August, a 13.7% increase from September last year, and a 30.6% decrease from September 2023 [4]. - The retail trend in the auto market has been stable. In September, retail sales increased by 1% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 0% year - on - year [4]. - Steel prices have been weak. On September 23, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.9%, 1.1%, 2.0%, and increased by 0.03% respectively compared to September 16 [4]. - Cement prices have weakly rebounded. On September 23, the national cement price index increased by 2.3% compared to September 16, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions rising by 3.5% and 4.8% respectively [4]. - Glass prices have fluctuated widely. On September 23, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,181 yuan/ton, a 4.4% decrease from September 16 [4]. - The container shipping freight index has deeply declined at a low level. On September 19, the CCFI index decreased by 0.5% compared to September 12, and the SCFI index dropped by 14.3% [4]. 3.2 Inflation: Further Drop in Pork Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Further Drop in Pork Prices - Pork prices have further declined. On September 23, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.6 yuan/kg, a 1.6% decrease from September 16 [4]. - The agricultural product price index has moderately rebounded. On September 23, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.2% compared to September 16. By variety, eggs (up 4.4%) > fruits (up 1.3%) > mutton (up 0.6%) > chicken (up 0.5%) > beef (up 0.4%) > vegetables (up 0.2%) > pork (down 1.6%) [4]. 3.2.2 PPI: Weak Oscillation in Oil Prices - Oil prices have shown a weak oscillation. On September 23, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $68.6 and $63.4 per barrel respectively, a 0.03% and 1.7% decrease from September 16 [4]. - Copper and aluminum prices have turned down. On September 23, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 1.7% and 2.9% respectively compared to September 16 [4]. - The decline in the domestic commodity index has widened on a month - on - month basis. On September 23, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 2.1% compared to September 16, and the CRB index decreased by 1.3% [4].

Supply and Demand - Construction starts are showing marginal improvement, with recent weeks indicating a recovery in asphalt plant operating rates and cement dispatch rates, although they remain at historical lows[2] - Industrial production remains at a historically high level, with PX operating rates maintaining high levels while PTA rates are at historical lows[2] - Demand in construction remains weak, with negative year-on-year growth in construction demand and a decline in automobile sales[2] Commodity Prices - Gold prices have significantly increased, while oil prices are fluctuating weakly; copper and aluminum prices are also on the rise[3] - Domestic industrial prices are experiencing limited support from demand, leading to overall price fluctuations[3] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions have turned positive year-on-year, with a 23% decrease in average transaction area in major cities compared to the previous two weeks, but still showing improvement compared to 2023 and 2024[4] - Second-hand housing transactions are showing marginal improvement, with transaction volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increasing year-on-year by -2%, +26%, and +23% respectively[4] Exports - Exports for the first 14 days of September are estimated to have increased by approximately 4.1% year-on-year, supported by high-frequency port data[5] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in funding rates, with R007 at 1.47% and DR007 at 1.46% as of September 14[72] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 24,315 billion yuan through reverse repos in recent weeks[72] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[77]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the coal industry and its impact on the broader economy, particularly in relation to the "anti-involution" policy aimed at addressing insufficient domestic demand and industry profit issues [1][2][3]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Anti-Involution Policy Goals**: - The policy aims to break the negative cycle of government revenue and corporate profits, focusing on industries like photovoltaic and new energy [1]. - Short-term goals include restraining corporate debt risks, while long-term goals focus on preventing local government risks and stabilizing the Producer Price Index (PPI) [2][3]. 2. **Importance of PPI**: - PPI's year-on-year growth is crucial as it directly affects corporate profitability and overall economic health. Continuous decline in PPI can lead to increased price competition and significant corporate losses [4][5]. - Measures to boost PPI include controlling overcapacity, increasing industry concentration, improving demand-side management, and enhancing regulatory oversight [5][6]. 3. **Commodity Price Management**: - Managing the prices of major commodities like coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals is seen as the most effective way to achieve PPI stabilization [7][9]. - A 1.42% increase in coal prices can lead to a 1% increase in overall PPI, indicating a strong elasticity in traditional commodities [9]. 4. **Specific Price Increase Requirements**: - To achieve a positive PPI by the end of the year, coal prices need to rise by 34% compared to the June average if coal is the only focus. However, if coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals all increase by 8%, PPI can return to positive growth [10][15]. 5. **Challenges and Future Trends**: - The difficulty of achieving PPI growth is likened to the challenge of gaining admission to a prestigious university, indicating significant hurdles ahead [10]. - Current price increases in coal (12%) and steel (5%) are still below the required levels, and future price movements will depend on policy clarity and market conditions [12][16]. Other Important Insights - **Debt Risk Management**: - The anti-involution policy is fundamentally about managing debt risks, particularly in industries like photovoltaic and new energy, which have seen a spread of debt issues [2][15]. - The focus is on fostering profitable enterprises rather than merely increasing production capacity to mitigate local government risks [2][3]. - **Market Expectations**: - The timing of policy announcements is crucial, with expectations for clarity in September to guide market behavior [14]. - The potential for extreme price increases in coal is low, as the current policy approach is more market-oriented, aiming to balance upstream and downstream profit distributions [17]. - **GDP Projections**: - The GDP performance for the second half of 2025 is expected to remain stable, influenced by external export demands and domestic infrastructure projects [18]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, focusing on the coal industry and its implications for the broader economic landscape.

Supply and Demand - Construction activity remains at a seasonal low, with cement dispatch volumes declining again, indicating weak demand[15] - Industrial production is at a historically high level but has marginally decreased compared to the previous two weeks[24] - Construction demand has turned negative year-on-year, with rebar and building materials demand falling to historical lows[31] Prices - Domestic industrial prices are fluctuating weakly due to limited demand-side support, with the Nanhua Composite Index declining[45] - International commodity prices are volatile, with gold prices showing a strong upward trend amid expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[42] Real Estate - New housing transactions have seen a narrowing year-on-year decline, with a 33% increase in transaction area compared to the previous two weeks[63] - Second-hand housing transactions are showing marginal improvement, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experiencing year-on-year changes of -3%, +17%, and +19% respectively[68] Exports - August exports are expected to grow by approximately 5% to 7%, with a model indicating a 5.5% increase[71] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a rise in funding rates, with the R007 and DR007 both at 1.52% as of August 31[76] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 13,759 billion yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[78]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the economic growth, inflation, and related price trends in multiple industries. It shows that steel inventory is accumulating faster, power plant daily consumption is rising moderately, and there are various changes in the prices of agricultural products, industrial products, and energy commodities [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Economic Growth: Faster Accumulation of Steel Inventory 1.1 Production: Moderate Increase in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption increased moderately. On August 5, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generation groups was 89.0 tons, up 0.9% from July 29. On August 1, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 223.1 tons, up 0.3% from July 24 [5][12]. - Blast furnace operating rate fluctuated at a high level. On August 1, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.5%, unchanged from July 25; the capacity utilization rate was 90.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from July 25. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 93.3%, up 1.3 percentage points from July 25 [15]. - Tire operating rate declined slightly. On July 31, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 61.1%, down 3.9 percentage points from July 24; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 74.5%, down 1.4 percentage points from July 24. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was weakly stable [17]. 1.2 Demand: Faster Accumulation of Steel Inventory - New home sales in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month. From August 1 - 5, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 162,000 square meters, down 20.1% from July, 21.2% from August last year, and 40.6% from August 2023 [23]. - The auto market retail was stable and relatively strong. In July, retail sales increased by 7% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 12% year - on - year [24]. - Steel prices corrected. On August 5, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by - 2.3%, - 2.0%, - 1.4%, and + 0.4% respectively compared with July 29 [5][31]. - Cement prices declined at a low level. On August 5, the national cement price index fell 0.6% from July 29. The cement prices in East China and the Yangtze River region fell 1.3% and 0.2% respectively [32]. - Glass prices fell further. On August 5, the active glass futures contract price was 1,073 yuan/ton, down 9.2% from July 29 [36]. - The container shipping freight index continued to decline. On August 1, the CCFI index decreased by 2.3% and the SCFI index decreased by 2.6% compared with July 25 [38]. 2. Inflation: Agricultural Product Price Index at the Second - Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past 5 Years 2.1 CPI: Agricultural Product Price Index at the Second - Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past 5 Years - Pork prices remained weak. On August 5, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.3 yuan/kg, down 0.8% from July 29. In August, the average wholesale price of pork decreased month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened [45]. - The agricultural product price index was at the second - lowest level in the same period of the past 5 years. On August 5, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.7% from July 29. By variety, vegetables (+2.5%) > chicken (+0.9%) > beef (+0.4%) > pork (-0.8%) > eggs (-1.0%) > mutton (-1.1%) > fruits (-2.4%) [49]. 2.2 PPI: Oil Price Decline - Oil prices declined. On August 5, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 69.6 and 65.2 dollars/barrel respectively, down 2.7% and 5.9% from July 29 [54]. - Copper and aluminum prices fell. On August 5, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 1.4% and 1.6% respectively compared with July 29 [58]. - Most industrial product prices rose. Since August, most industrial product prices increased month - on - month, and most of them increased year - on - year. The prices of cement and glass decreased month - on - month, while other industrial products generally increased [62].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the price of gold has surpassed $3,400 per ounce, indicating a restructuring of the global monetary system and a shift in the role of gold from a safe-haven asset to a successor of the monetary system [1] - The World Gold Council reports that 19 out of 36 surveyed central banks are purchasing gold directly from local miners using their own currencies, reflecting a growing appetite for gold among central banks [1] - National Securities suggests that the investment strategy should shift towards long-term holdings and diversified hedging, focusing on physical gold, ETFs, and gold stocks, while monitoring central bank policies and geopolitical events [1] Group 2 - Ping An Securities indicates that the precious metals market will continue to differentiate in the second half of the year, with gold prices expected to rise due to weakened dollar credit and increased safe-haven demand [2] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from a loose monetary environment and tight supply-demand dynamics, leading to accelerated price elasticity [2] - The overall outlook for precious and industrial metals is optimistic, while energy metals require attention to fundamental drivers [2]

Consumption - Marginal improvement in consumer goods, with automotive wholesale and retail sales showing seasonal recovery[6] - High-end dining and liquor, particularly Moutai, continue to decline due to policy impacts, with Moutai prices down 6.8% week-on-week[6] - Textile and apparel demand is recovering, with a second consecutive week of improvement[6] Investment - Special bond issuance accelerated, totaling CNY 2.16 trillion as of June 28, reflecting a faster pace compared to previous years[17] - New home sales in 30 cities showed seasonal recovery but were down 15.8% year-on-year, indicating a slower recovery in second and third-tier cities[17] - Construction progress in infrastructure and real estate is marginally improving, with asphalt operating rates rising[17] Trade and Export - External demand remains weak, with South Korea's exports and imports from China growing by 3.4% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively[22] - Port data indicates a recovery in the number of ships but a slight decline in cargo tonnage, suggesting a mismatch between supply and demand[22] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 12.4%, indicating weakened freight rates despite restored shipping capacity[22] Production - Power generation shows seasonal coal consumption recovery, but steel and petrochemical industries are under pressure[31] - The operating rates for steel and petrochemical products continue to decline, indicating ongoing industry stress[32] Inventory - Coal inventories at ports have dropped for six consecutive weeks, reaching a yearly low, while cement inventory ratios are recovering[41] - Downstream industries are primarily focused on restocking, reflecting subdued demand[41] Prices - Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are both declining, with oil prices dropping below $70 per barrel, down 10.6% week-on-week[46] - Industrial prices are also falling, with the South China price index down 1.1%[46] Liquidity - The US dollar index fell below 98, marking its lowest level since February 2022, while the People's Bank of China injected CNY 10,672 billion to support liquidity[55] - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 0.7 basis points to 1.65%[55]