1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rebounded on March 17, with the most actively traded May contract up 26.9 Canadian dollars, or 3.8%, settling at 729.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - Affected by the decline of US soybeans, rapeseed meal has given back some of its previous gains, with large short - term fluctuations, and it is recommended to participate in short - term trading [2] - Recently, the rapeseed oil futures price has generally remained in a high - level shock, with increased short - term fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures was 9780 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal futures was 2443 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan [2] - The month - to - month spread of rapeseed oil (5 - 9) was 141 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the month - to - month spread of rapeseed meal (5 - 9) was 16 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] - The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 229,484 lots, down 4185 lots; the position of the main contract of rapeseed meal was 600,206 lots, down 20,858 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil was - 18,729 lots, up 1557 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal was - 145,326 lots, down 7417 lots [2] - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 905, down 220; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 586, down 1675 [2] - The closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed futures was 729.4 Canadian dollars/ton, up 26.8 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed futures was 5778 yuan/ton, down 122 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,370 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - The average price of rapeseed oil was 10,351.25 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed was 5388.97 yuan/ton, up 169.65 yuan [2] - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio was 3.86, up 0.04 [2] - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 590 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 217 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2] - The spot price of grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1530 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9860 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 510 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2] - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3330 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 670 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual global rapeseed output was 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual predicted rapeseed output was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - The total rapeseed import volume was 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk was 146 yuan/ton, up 191 yuan [2] - The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 17.5 million tons, down 2.5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 8%, unchanged [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 22 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 27.65 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas was 5.75 million tons, down 2.3 million tons [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 27.65 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region was 5.75 million tons, down 2.3 million tons [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi region was 0.5 million tons, up 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 30.2 million tons, up 1.9 million tons [2] - The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.52 million tons, up 0.7 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 1.04 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 573.8 billion yuan, down 3.19 billion yuan [2] - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2] 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 27.48%, down 2.88%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 27.48%, down 2.87% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 28.12%, down 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 20.84%, down 0.01% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 19.9%, down 2.88%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 19.9%, down 2.88% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 19.58%, up 0.76%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 19.83%, down 0.08% [2] 3.8 Industry News - On March 17 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, rebounding from the previous day's decline, with the most actively traded May contract up 26.9 Canadian dollars, or 3.8%, at 729.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Meal View Summary - Affected by the increase in South American soybean supply and the decline in US soybean export expectations, US soybeans fell sharply, dragging down the domestic rapeseed meal price [2] - China's cancellation of the anti - discrimination tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of the Canadian rapeseed tariff will increase the supply pressure in the distant month [2] - The adjustment of anti - discrimination measures for Canadian rapeseed meal and the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed are in line with expectations, with limited overall impact [2] - The planting area of Canadian rapeseed in 2026 is expected to increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the average expectation of 22.3 million acres [2] - The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture predicts that the rapeseed output in 2026/27 will be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year [2] 3.10 Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, boosting the demand expectation of vegetable oil for biodiesel [2] - The export of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in March, while the output increase was limited, and the end - of - month inventory is expected to continue to decline [2] - The Indonesian government may impose additional taxes on palm oil, and the market expects the export of Indonesian palm oil to tighten [2] - The domestic edible oil spot market has a weak trading atmosphere, and high prices suppress demand [2] - The future import volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, adding supply pressure in the distant month [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the bean meal market, the purchase and sales are still dull, and the price continues to fluctuate. The US soybean domestic pressing demand is strong, but the tariff issue may affect exports, and the price has declined. Brazilian soybean harvest has slowed, but the new - season harvest is still expected to be abundant, which will bring supply pressure to China. Attention should be paid to US tariff policies and Brazilian soybean arrivals [1][2] - For the corn market, after the Spring Festival, with the temperature rising, farmers and traders will start selling. Snow may affect transportation, and the "late spring cold" may impact wheat production. After - festival replenishment demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises will support the corn price [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Meal - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the bean meal 2605 contract was 2831 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+1.80%) from the previous day. The spot prices in Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong were 3180 yuan/ton, 3060 yuan/ton, and 3070 yuan/ton respectively, with different changes in basis. Brazilian February soybean exports are expected to be 1,069 million tons, and bean meal exports are expected to be 173 million tons, both lower than previous forecasts [1] - **Market Analysis**: US soybean prices have declined due to tariff issues, and new - season planting area may increase. Brazilian soybean harvest has slowed but the new - season is still a bumper harvest, bringing supply pressure to China. Attention should be paid to US tariff policies and Brazilian soybean arrivals [2] - **Strategy**: The strategy for the bean meal market is neutral [3] Corn - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the corn 2605 contract was 2342 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.43%) from the previous day. The corn starch 2605 contract was 2673 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.38%). Brazilian 2025/26 first - season corn harvest progress is 28%, and second - season planting progress is 50%. Brazilian February前三周 exported 134.8 million tons of corn, with an average daily export of 10.4 million tons, a 46% increase from last year [3] - **Market Analysis**: After the Spring Festival, with rising temperatures, farmers and traders will sell, but snow may affect transportation, and "late spring cold" may impact wheat production. After - festival replenishment demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises will support the corn price [4] - **Strategy**: The strategy for the corn market is neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of the meal market is under pressure, and the prices are generally declining. The international soybean market is in a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and prices may face pressure. The domestic spot supply of soybean meal has tightened, while the demand for rapeseed meal has weakened. The trading strategy suggests a bearish view for single - side trading, expanding the MRM spread for arbitrage, and selling a wide - straddle strategy for options [1][3][4][7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean market is oscillating. The US biodiesel policy has improved demand, but the impact is limited. South American market quotes are slightly down, and US soybean price decline supports the Brazilian quotes. The domestic soybean meal market is at a low level. Concerns about future arrivals have decreased, increasing the downward pressure. Rapeseed meal also shows downward pressure, with a larger decline than soybean meal. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expanding, and the near - month spreads of both are decreasing [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis International Market - US soybean carry - over stocks are raised to 350 million bushels, higher than the market forecast of 292 million bushels, mainly due to increased planting area. Quarterly grain inventory data is also bearish. Although US soybean exports have improved, the supply - demand situation is still loose. In South America, Brazilian new - crop soybeans are growing well, and exports are expected to increase. Brazilian old - crop soybeans have good export and crushing performance. Argentine old - crop soybean production is large, and the pressure on exports and crushing has eased [4] Domestic Market - The domestic spot supply of soybean meal has tightened. Oil mill operating rates are increasing but at a slower pace.提货量 has decreased slightly, and inventory is declining. Market transactions have increased significantly. As of January 30, the actual soybean crushing volume is 2.2961 million tons, the operating rate is 63.16%, soybean inventory is 6.355 million tons, a decrease of 3.56% from last week and an increase of 44.77% year - on - year. Soybean meal inventory is 930,400 tons, an increase of 3.54% from last week and 3.54% year - on - year. The demand for rapeseed meal is gradually weakening. Oil mill operating rates have increased, but rapeseed supply is low, and granular rapeseed meal inventory is still high, so there is supply pressure. As of January 30, coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory is 58,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week, and rapeseed meal inventory is 1,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last week [6] 3.3 Logic Analysis - The positive impact of the US biodiesel policy on soybean crushing is limited, and further upward momentum for US soybeans is weak. The recent rise in the US dollar index may not be sustainable. International market uncertainties mainly come from weather. In the domestic market, future soybean arrivals are expected to decrease, and the supply is uncertain. The spot market provides some support, but the upside for the futures market is limited. Rapeseed meal also faces downward pressure. As imports increase, the supply will improve. The demand for rapeseed meal may improve with the tightening of soybean meal supply, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread will expand. The near - month spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are decreasing [7] 3.4 Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: Adopt a bearish view - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8] 3.5 Soybean Pressing Profit - The pressing profit data from different sources (Argentina and Brazil) and different shipping dates are provided, showing the changes in pressing profit compared with the previous day [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 and corn sectors is "Cautiously Bearish" [4][7] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the粕类 market, the domestic fundamentals have not changed significantly. The domestic arrival volume is sufficient, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal remains at a relatively high level, with overall supply being relatively loose. Future focuses include the Sino - US negotiation situation and the sowing progress of new - season Brazilian soybeans [3] - For the corn market, on the supply side, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain has recovered slightly in the Northeast region due to the slightly stronger price, while in the North China region, the risk of bad grain has decreased, and the shipment rhythm of moist grain has slowed down. On the demand side, the inventory of various channels is low, but the willingness to stock up is weak [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 粕类 Market 3.1.1 Market News and Key Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2969 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton (- 0.20%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2373 yuan/ton, a change of - 23 yuan/ton (- 0.96%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3010 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 + 41, a change of + 16 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2930 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M01 - 39, a change of + 6; in Guangdong, it was 2940 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 29, a change of - 4. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2580 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM01 + 207, a change of + 3 [1] - **Market Information**: As of last Thursday, the planting rate of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans reached 36% of the expected sown area, the same as last year. Brazil's soybean exports in October are expected to be 7 million tons. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.061 million tons [2] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The domestic fundamentals have not changed much, with sufficient arrivals and high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal. Future focuses are on Sino - US negotiations and the sowing of new - season Brazilian soybeans [3] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 3.2 Corn Market 3.2.1 Market News and Key Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2116 yuan/ton, a change of - 7 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2427 yuan/ton, a change of + 3 yuan/ton (+ 0.12%) [4] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C11 + 24, a change of + 7; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS11 + 123, a change of - 3 [4] - **Market Information**: As of October 25, the planting of the first - season corn in Brazil in 2025/26 was 40.0% completed, compared with 33.2% last week, 36.8% last year, and a five - year average of 39.6% [4] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - On the supply side, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain in the Northeast has recovered slightly, and the shipment of moist grain in North China has slowed down. On the demand side, inventory is low, but the willingness to stock up is weak [5][6] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the粕类 and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] Report's Core View - Although the US Department of Agriculture has not released the latest data, Brazil's current export situation is good, significantly higher than the historical average, which has put downward pressure on CBOT soybean prices. Meanwhile, the increase in Brazilian exports has led to sufficient domestic supply, and the soybean inventory is still rising. It is expected that the supply will remain abundant in the future. The focus of the market will be on policy changes, and the import of new - season US soybeans will affect the market supply and demand around the Spring Festival [3] - Domestically, in the corn market, the new - season corn in the Northeast and North China regions is being concentratedly supplied. The quality and yield of corn in the Northeast are good, and farmers are actively selling, leading to price cuts. In North China, most of the corn is wet, with only a small amount of dried corn on the market. On the demand side, the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing enterprises is acceptable, and feed enterprises with low inventories are more willing to purchase. Currently, the supply exceeds demand, and the price of new grain is generally low. Future attention should be paid to national policies [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 粕类 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2938 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton (+1.84%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2339 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+1.39%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2970 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 + 32, down 33 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2910 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 28, down 3 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 2920 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 18, down 13 from the previous day; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM01 + 211, down 2 from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters estimates that the soybean export volume in October 2025 will be 734 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 731 million tons, a 65.7% increase from 443 million tons in October last year, and also higher than the 697 million tons in September this year. China accounted for 93% (650 million tons) of Brazil's soybean exports in September. From January to September this year, China accounted for 79.9% of Brazil's soybean exports, higher than the historical average of 74%. The soybean export volume in the first 10 months of this year will reach 102 billion tons, compared with 93.49 billion tons in the same period last year. The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association predicts that the soybean output in the 2025/26 season will reach a record 178.5 billion tons, a 3.9% increase from the revised output of 171.8 billion tons last year [2] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2140 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.33%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2450 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (+0.99%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C01 + 40, down 7 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS01 + 100, down 24 from the previous day [4] Recent Market Information - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters estimates that the corn export volume in October 2025 will be 657 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 646 million tons, lower than the 698 million tons in September, but a 15.9% increase from 567 million tons in October last year. The estimated corn export volume from January to October this year is 3052 million tons, compared with 2929 million tons in the same period last year. ANEC estimates that the corn export volume in Brazil this year will be 4500 million tons, higher than 3780 million tons in 2024 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract fell 1.5 to close at 986.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.15%; the September soybean meal contract rose 35 to close at 3,045 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.16%; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 50 to 2,920 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.74%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 98 to close at 2,773 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.66%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 90 to 2,620 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.56% [4]. - U.S. soybeans are in a weak and volatile state. The overall weather in the production areas is good, with a crop good - to - excellent rate of 69%, which is at a relatively high level in the same period. The new - crop export sales of U.S. soybeans slightly exceeded expectations. The cost - effectiveness advantage attracted more purchases from other countries, but the absence of China, the largest buyer, led to a still slow overall sales progress. In China, there is still a supply of near - term soybeans and soybean meal. As time passes, the expectation of tight supply in the distant future is strengthening, and the Dalian soybean meal futures are oscillating and slightly rising. Due to factors such as the peak season for aquaculture and the expected decrease in future arrivals, rapeseed meal has a greater upward elasticity [4][7]. - The precipitation in the U.S. soybean production areas is generally at the average level, but the western production areas will be dry in the next two weeks. The crop conditions are good. Attention should be paid to the upcoming USDA report. Under the current import tax rate of U.S. soybeans, it is difficult for them to enter the Chinese market. However, the procurement of old - crop Brazilian soybeans is becoming more difficult, and the premium is running strongly. As time passes, the expectation of tight supply is strengthening, and the domestic futures market may continue to strengthen. For other countries, the cost - effectiveness of U.S. soybeans is prominent, and the purchase volume will also increase. The overseas market may oscillate at a low level. Overall, in the short term, the Dalian soybean meal futures may oscillate and strengthen [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | 8/8 | 8/1 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 986.50 | 988.00 | - 1.50 | - 0.15% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 485.00 | 468.00 | 17.00 | 3.63% | Dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 443.00 | 450.00 | - 7.00 | - 1.56% | Dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 42.65 | - 20.24 | - 22.41 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3045.00 | 3010.00 | 35.00 | 1.16% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2773.00 | 2675.00 | 98.00 | 3.66% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 272.00 | 335.00 | - 63.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2940.00 | 2900.00 | 40.00 | 1.38% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2920.00 | 2870.00 | 50.00 | 1.74% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 125.00 | - 140.00 | 15.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - U.S. soybean production area weather: The overall weather in the U.S. soybean production areas is good, with a crop good - to - excellent rate of 69%. The precipitation is generally at the average level, but the western production areas will be dry in the next two weeks. The USDA report is about to be released [4][7][9]. - U.S. soybean export situation: The new - crop export sales of U.S. soybeans slightly exceeded expectations. The cost - effectiveness advantage attracted more purchases from other countries, but China, the largest buyer, was absent, and the overall sales progress was still slow. As of the week ending July 31, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current market year were 468,000 tons, and the cumulative export sales of 2024/2025 U.S. soybeans had completed the USDA's expected target. The net export sales of 2025/2026 U.S. soybeans in the current week were 545,000 tons, and the cumulative sales in this year were 3.58 million tons, while China had not purchased new - crop U.S. soybeans [4][7][9]. - Domestic supply situation: There is still a supply of near - term soybeans and soybean meal in China. As time passes, the expectation of tight supply in the distant future is strengthening. As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.5559 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous week; the outstanding contracts were 6.7687 million tons, an increase of 2.5386 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory at national ports was 8.237 million tons, an increase of 152,000 tons from the previous week [7][9][10]. - Market performance: The Dalian soybean meal futures are oscillating and slightly rising. Due to factors such as the peak season for aquaculture and the expected decrease in future arrivals, rapeseed meal has a greater upward elasticity [4][7]. 3.3 Industry News - StoneX predicts that the U.S. soybean production in 2025 will reach 4.425 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre. The predicted soybean production in Brazil in 2025/26 will be 177.2 million tons, an increase of 5.6% from the previous year due to an increase in planting area and crop yield [12]. - Celeres estimates that the soybean planting area in Brazil in 2025/26 will increase by 962,000 hectares or 2% to 48.6 million hectares. If this increase is realized and the yield slightly increases, Brazil is expected to achieve a record production of 177.2 million tons [12]. - As of the week ending July 30, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed crops in Saskatchewan, Canada was 67.84%. Due to recent wet weather, the rapeseed harvest in the EU 27 and the UK has been delayed, and the predicted rapeseed production in 2025/26 is 20.3 million tons, the same as the previous forecast [13][14]. - Safras & Mercado reports that the sales volume of Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26 has reached 16.8% of the expected production, and the sales volume in 2024/25 has reached 78.4% of the expected production [13]. - The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso, Brazil from July 28 to August 1 was 390 reais per ton, down from 435.55 reais per ton in the previous week [13]. - As of the week ending July 30, the cumulative sales of 2024/25 soybeans by Argentine farmers were 27.9605 million tons, and the cumulative export sales registration volume was 8.04 million tons [14]. - The predicted soybean planting area in Brazil in 2025/26 will increase at the slowest rate in nearly 20 years, with an estimated planting area of 48.13 million hectares, an increase of 1.43% from the previous year. The predicted soybean production is 166.56 million tons, lower than the previous year's 168.74 million tons [15]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the crushing profit by region, the trend of soybean meal main contracts, the spot price of soybean meal in each region, the CBOT net position of managed funds, the spot - futures spread of soybean meal, the precipitation and temperature in U.S. soybean production areas, the flowering rate and good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans, the cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans to the world, the weekly net sales volume of U.S. soybeans, the cumulative sales volume of new - crop U.S. soybeans, the weekly net sales volume of U.S. soybeans to China, the weekly export volume of U.S. soybeans, the U.S. oil mill crushing profit, the weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory at ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume and crushing start - up rate of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills, and the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises [16][21][24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - For both the soybean meal and corn markets, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [4][7] Core View - The soybean meal market shows a pattern of stable and rising spot prices with a fluctuating trend. The corn market saw a weak start in the month and a slight rebound at the end. Both markets are currently in a situation of supply exceeding demand, and future price trends need to focus on policy changes, new - season crop conditions, etc. [3][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3024 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.47% from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2678 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was M09 - 44, down 4 from the previous day. In Jiangsu, it was 2910 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was M09 - 114, up 6. In Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was M09 - 134, up 6. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was RM09 - 48, down 3 [1] - US Data: In June, the US soybean crush was 197.1 million bushels, down 3.22% from May, up 7.44% from the same period last year, and close to the market expectation of 196.6 million bushels. The US soybean oil inventory at the end of June was 1.893 billion pounds, higher than the market expectation of 1.863 billion pounds [2] - Indian Data: In the first 9 months of the 2024/25 season, India's cumulative soybean oil imports were 3.93 million tons, up 93.6% from the same period last year [2] Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2284 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 0.57% from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2664 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot basis was C09 + 36, up 13 from the previous day. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2800 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton, and the basis was CS09 + 136, up 84 [4] - Argentine Data: As of July 30, the 2024/25 Argentine corn harvest progress was 88%, and the cumulative harvest was 4.39 million tons. The national average yield was 7.23 tons/hectare, and the annual output was expected to be 4.9 million tons, down 5% year - on - year. The 2025/26 Argentine wheat planting progress was 98.3%, and the planting area was expected to be 6.7 million hectares, up 6.3% year - on - year [4] - US Data: In June, the total consumption of corn for ethanol production and other uses in the US was 498 million bushels, slightly increasing month - on - month. Corn for beverage ethanol production was 3.06 million bushels, down 20% month - on - month and 24% year - on - year. Corn for fuel ethanol production was 448 million bushels, up 1% month - on - month and slightly up year - on - year [5] 2. Market Analysis Soybean Meal - Supply: The domestic arrival volume has been high this month, and the soybean meal inventory has further increased. The supply in the domestic market will remain loose in the short term. With positive policy expectations and a strong expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest, the future supply may be even more abundant [3] - Demand: Downstream feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and mainly purchase on - demand according to previous contracts. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change [3] - Price: Affected by macro factors, the soybean meal price first rose and then fell this month, and the overall fundamentals have not changed significantly [3] Corn - Supply: In the first half of the month, due to the import corn auction, traders sold their goods, increasing the market supply and driving down the futures and spot prices. In the second half of the month, as the auction transaction rate decreased, the supply decreased, and the corn price stopped falling and stabilized [6] - Demand: Feed enterprises mainly replenished their inventory as needed, and the demand was weak [6] - Price: The corn price was weak in the first half of the month and rebounded slightly at the end. The fundamentals of old - crop corn are unlikely to change significantly, and the new - season corn has not been listed yet [6] 3. Strategy - For both the soybean meal and corn markets, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [4][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal futures market shows some pressure, with a limited rebound followed by a decline. The international market has slow selling progress in Brazil but relatively firm prices. The deep - decline space of soybean meal is limited. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuate, with limited support from demand and limited upside space due to high inventory. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may widen in the future [4][7]. - The new US soybean balance sheet has improved, but there is a lack of substantial bullish factors in production and exports. The supply pressure of the international soybean market is concentrated in South America, especially in Brazil and Argentina [5]. - The domestic soybean meal spot market is relatively loose, with increasing inventory. The rapeseed meal market has sufficient supply but weakening demand, and is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean futures market fluctuates, lacking obvious driving factors. The domestic soybean meal futures market declines slightly, and the rapeseed meal futures market is weak. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal changes little. The inter - monthly spread of soybean meal futures fluctuates, while that of rapeseed meal futures rebounds [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The new US soybean balance sheet improves due to biodiesel policies, but there is no substantial bullish news in production and exports. As of the week ending June 15, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%. As of the week ending June 12, the export inspection volume of old US soybeans is 215,800 tons. The US soybean crushing data in May is good, with a NOPA - caliber crushing volume of 192.829 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 1.37%. The selling progress of Brazilian farmers is slow, and the pressure on prices is emerging. The Brazilian soybean crushing volume decreases, and the export may increase. The domestic crushing volume in Argentina may improve, but soybean exports may also increase [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal spot market is loose, with increasing oil mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and increasing inventory. As of June 27, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills is 2.4878 million tons, the operating rate is 69.93%, the soybean inventory is 6.6587 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 278,800 tons (4.37%) and a year - on - year increase of 1 million tons (17.68%); the soybean meal inventory is 691,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 182,700 tons (35.9%) and a year - on - year decrease of 361,400 tons (34.32%). The domestic rapeseed meal demand weakens, and although the operating rate of oil mills decreases, the supply is still sufficient, and the inventory increases. As of the week ending June 27, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills is 43,000 tons, the operating rate this week is 11.46%, the rapeseed inventory is 188,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,000 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory is 11,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 900 tons [6]. 3.3 Macro - analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London is completed, but there is no clear information. The market is worried about the uncertainty of future supply. Although the international trade has many uncertainties, the macro - disturbances are decreasing. China's long - term demand for US soybeans is high, so the price is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [7]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The domestic soybean meal futures market shows pressure, with a limited rebound and then a decline. The international market has slow selling progress in Brazil but firm prices. The deep - decline space of soybean meal is limited. The rapeseed meal futures market fluctuates, with limited upside space due to weak demand and high inventory. The inter - monthly spread of soybean meal futures has support, and that of rapeseed meal futures is strong. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may widen [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: It is recommended to buy a small amount of long positions in the far - month soybean meal futures [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Expand the MRM09 spread [8]. - **Options**: Wait and see [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] Core Viewpoints - In the current situation, the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans in China is putting significant supply pressure on the domestic market. The increasing soybean inventory and weakening Brazilian soybean premiums suggest limited support for import costs. Future attention should be paid to the arrival of new - season soybeans, the planting of new - season US soybeans, and policy changes [3] - For the corn market, the supply of domestic corn has slightly increased, while the demand from deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the procurement by feed enterprises has been relatively passive [5] Summary by Directory 粕类 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2961 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.17%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2604 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.19%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2850 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2560 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - US Market: As of May 25, the US soybean planting progress reached 76%, the emergence rate was 50%. As of May 22, the US soybean export inspection volume was 19.5 tons, and the total export inspection volume in the 2024/25 season reached 4433 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.0% [2] Market Analysis - Currently, it is the concentrated arrival period of Brazilian soybeans, bringing supply pressure to the domestic market. The soybean meal inventory has been increasing, and the weakening of Brazilian soybean premiums provides limited support for import costs [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2507 contract was 2325 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2507 contract was 2663 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (+0.41%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - US Market: As of May 25, the US corn crop's first - rated good - to - excellent rate was 68%, and the planting progress reached 87% [4] Market Analysis - Domestically, the supply of corn has slightly increased, while the demand from deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the procurement by feed enterprises has been relatively passive [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the rumor of the result of the rapeseed anti - dumping investigation on Saturday, grains showed strong performance. However, the rumor is unconfirmed and policy variables are large, so caution is advised when going long. - Domestic soybean meal is expected to gradually accumulate inventory, with spot prices and basis continuing to decline. - In the northern part of the US soybean - producing areas, there will be less rainfall in the next two weeks, but no abnormally high temperatures, and the expected impact is limited. - Brazilian premiums have stabilized recently. - In the short term, the bullish driving force is limited. The near - month futures and basis are still under supply pressure. The 109 contract is expected to maintain range - bound trading. - Continuously monitor policy and weather changes. Subsequently, consider long opportunities for M11 and 00 contracts [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Spread Data - The report presents the basis data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions such as Dalian, Tianjin, and Zhangjiagang, as well as the spread data between M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, etc., and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong [3][4]. International Data - It shows the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, the CNF premium of imported soybeans, and the trend of the CNF premium of soybeans in the United States and Brazil [4]. Inventory Data - As of last week, soybean inventory decreased slightly and is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. Soybean meal inventory increased to 20.69 tons and is still low. Feed companies' soybean meal inventory days increased but are still at a low level [5]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From May to July in China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The current purchase progress for June is 92.7%, July is 74.4%, and August is 29.7%. US soybean planting progress is fast, and there is a sign of dry weather in the next two weeks in some areas. The flood in the Argentine soybean - producing area is expected to have limited impact. - **Demand**: Before September, supply is expected to increase steadily. Poultry inventory remains high. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, leading to increased downstream transactions and better提货 [4][5].