1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract fell 1.5 to close at 986.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.15%; the September soybean meal contract rose 35 to close at 3,045 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.16%; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 50 to 2,920 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.74%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 98 to close at 2,773 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.66%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 90 to 2,620 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.56% [4]. - U.S. soybeans are in a weak and volatile state. The overall weather in the production areas is good, with a crop good - to - excellent rate of 69%, which is at a relatively high level in the same period. The new - crop export sales of U.S. soybeans slightly exceeded expectations. The cost - effectiveness advantage attracted more purchases from other countries, but the absence of China, the largest buyer, led to a still slow overall sales progress. In China, there is still a supply of near - term soybeans and soybean meal. As time passes, the expectation of tight supply in the distant future is strengthening, and the Dalian soybean meal futures are oscillating and slightly rising. Due to factors such as the peak season for aquaculture and the expected decrease in future arrivals, rapeseed meal has a greater upward elasticity [4][7]. - The precipitation in the U.S. soybean production areas is generally at the average level, but the western production areas will be dry in the next two weeks. The crop conditions are good. Attention should be paid to the upcoming USDA report. Under the current import tax rate of U.S. soybeans, it is difficult for them to enter the Chinese market. However, the procurement of old - crop Brazilian soybeans is becoming more difficult, and the premium is running strongly. As time passes, the expectation of tight supply is strengthening, and the domestic futures market may continue to strengthen. For other countries, the cost - effectiveness of U.S. soybeans is prominent, and the purchase volume will also increase. The overseas market may oscillate at a low level. Overall, in the short term, the Dalian soybean meal futures may oscillate and strengthen [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | 8/8 | 8/1 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 986.50 | 988.00 | - 1.50 | - 0.15% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 485.00 | 468.00 | 17.00 | 3.63% | Dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 443.00 | 450.00 | - 7.00 | - 1.56% | Dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 42.65 | - 20.24 | - 22.41 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3045.00 | 3010.00 | 35.00 | 1.16% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2773.00 | 2675.00 | 98.00 | 3.66% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 272.00 | 335.00 | - 63.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2940.00 | 2900.00 | 40.00 | 1.38% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2920.00 | 2870.00 | 50.00 | 1.74% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 125.00 | - 140.00 | 15.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - U.S. soybean production area weather: The overall weather in the U.S. soybean production areas is good, with a crop good - to - excellent rate of 69%. The precipitation is generally at the average level, but the western production areas will be dry in the next two weeks. The USDA report is about to be released [4][7][9]. - U.S. soybean export situation: The new - crop export sales of U.S. soybeans slightly exceeded expectations. The cost - effectiveness advantage attracted more purchases from other countries, but China, the largest buyer, was absent, and the overall sales progress was still slow. As of the week ending July 31, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current market year were 468,000 tons, and the cumulative export sales of 2024/2025 U.S. soybeans had completed the USDA's expected target. The net export sales of 2025/2026 U.S. soybeans in the current week were 545,000 tons, and the cumulative sales in this year were 3.58 million tons, while China had not purchased new - crop U.S. soybeans [4][7][9]. - Domestic supply situation: There is still a supply of near - term soybeans and soybean meal in China. As time passes, the expectation of tight supply in the distant future is strengthening. As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.5559 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous week; the outstanding contracts were 6.7687 million tons, an increase of 2.5386 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory at national ports was 8.237 million tons, an increase of 152,000 tons from the previous week [7][9][10]. - Market performance: The Dalian soybean meal futures are oscillating and slightly rising. Due to factors such as the peak season for aquaculture and the expected decrease in future arrivals, rapeseed meal has a greater upward elasticity [4][7]. 3.3 Industry News - StoneX predicts that the U.S. soybean production in 2025 will reach 4.425 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre. The predicted soybean production in Brazil in 2025/26 will be 177.2 million tons, an increase of 5.6% from the previous year due to an increase in planting area and crop yield [12]. - Celeres estimates that the soybean planting area in Brazil in 2025/26 will increase by 962,000 hectares or 2% to 48.6 million hectares. If this increase is realized and the yield slightly increases, Brazil is expected to achieve a record production of 177.2 million tons [12]. - As of the week ending July 30, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed crops in Saskatchewan, Canada was 67.84%. Due to recent wet weather, the rapeseed harvest in the EU 27 and the UK has been delayed, and the predicted rapeseed production in 2025/26 is 20.3 million tons, the same as the previous forecast [13][14]. - Safras & Mercado reports that the sales volume of Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26 has reached 16.8% of the expected production, and the sales volume in 2024/25 has reached 78.4% of the expected production [13]. - The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso, Brazil from July 28 to August 1 was 390 reais per ton, down from 435.55 reais per ton in the previous week [13]. - As of the week ending July 30, the cumulative sales of 2024/25 soybeans by Argentine farmers were 27.9605 million tons, and the cumulative export sales registration volume was 8.04 million tons [14]. - The predicted soybean planting area in Brazil in 2025/26 will increase at the slowest rate in nearly 20 years, with an estimated planting area of 48.13 million hectares, an increase of 1.43% from the previous year. The predicted soybean production is 166.56 million tons, lower than the previous year's 168.74 million tons [15]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the crushing profit by region, the trend of soybean meal main contracts, the spot price of soybean meal in each region, the CBOT net position of managed funds, the spot - futures spread of soybean meal, the precipitation and temperature in U.S. soybean production areas, the flowering rate and good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans, the cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans to the world, the weekly net sales volume of U.S. soybeans, the cumulative sales volume of new - crop U.S. soybeans, the weekly net sales volume of U.S. soybeans to China, the weekly export volume of U.S. soybeans, the U.S. oil mill crushing profit, the weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory at ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume and crushing start - up rate of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills, and the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises [16][21][24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - For both the soybean meal and corn markets, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [4][7] Core View - The soybean meal market shows a pattern of stable and rising spot prices with a fluctuating trend. The corn market saw a weak start in the month and a slight rebound at the end. Both markets are currently in a situation of supply exceeding demand, and future price trends need to focus on policy changes, new - season crop conditions, etc. [3][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3024 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.47% from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2678 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was M09 - 44, down 4 from the previous day. In Jiangsu, it was 2910 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was M09 - 114, up 6. In Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was M09 - 134, up 6. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was RM09 - 48, down 3 [1] - US Data: In June, the US soybean crush was 197.1 million bushels, down 3.22% from May, up 7.44% from the same period last year, and close to the market expectation of 196.6 million bushels. The US soybean oil inventory at the end of June was 1.893 billion pounds, higher than the market expectation of 1.863 billion pounds [2] - Indian Data: In the first 9 months of the 2024/25 season, India's cumulative soybean oil imports were 3.93 million tons, up 93.6% from the same period last year [2] Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2284 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 0.57% from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2664 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot basis was C09 + 36, up 13 from the previous day. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2800 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton, and the basis was CS09 + 136, up 84 [4] - Argentine Data: As of July 30, the 2024/25 Argentine corn harvest progress was 88%, and the cumulative harvest was 4.39 million tons. The national average yield was 7.23 tons/hectare, and the annual output was expected to be 4.9 million tons, down 5% year - on - year. The 2025/26 Argentine wheat planting progress was 98.3%, and the planting area was expected to be 6.7 million hectares, up 6.3% year - on - year [4] - US Data: In June, the total consumption of corn for ethanol production and other uses in the US was 498 million bushels, slightly increasing month - on - month. Corn for beverage ethanol production was 3.06 million bushels, down 20% month - on - month and 24% year - on - year. Corn for fuel ethanol production was 448 million bushels, up 1% month - on - month and slightly up year - on - year [5] 2. Market Analysis Soybean Meal - Supply: The domestic arrival volume has been high this month, and the soybean meal inventory has further increased. The supply in the domestic market will remain loose in the short term. With positive policy expectations and a strong expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest, the future supply may be even more abundant [3] - Demand: Downstream feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and mainly purchase on - demand according to previous contracts. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change [3] - Price: Affected by macro factors, the soybean meal price first rose and then fell this month, and the overall fundamentals have not changed significantly [3] Corn - Supply: In the first half of the month, due to the import corn auction, traders sold their goods, increasing the market supply and driving down the futures and spot prices. In the second half of the month, as the auction transaction rate decreased, the supply decreased, and the corn price stopped falling and stabilized [6] - Demand: Feed enterprises mainly replenished their inventory as needed, and the demand was weak [6] - Price: The corn price was weak in the first half of the month and rebounded slightly at the end. The fundamentals of old - crop corn are unlikely to change significantly, and the new - season corn has not been listed yet [6] 3. Strategy - For both the soybean meal and corn markets, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [4][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal futures market shows some pressure, with a limited rebound followed by a decline. The international market has slow selling progress in Brazil but relatively firm prices. The deep - decline space of soybean meal is limited. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuate, with limited support from demand and limited upside space due to high inventory. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may widen in the future [4][7]. - The new US soybean balance sheet has improved, but there is a lack of substantial bullish factors in production and exports. The supply pressure of the international soybean market is concentrated in South America, especially in Brazil and Argentina [5]. - The domestic soybean meal spot market is relatively loose, with increasing inventory. The rapeseed meal market has sufficient supply but weakening demand, and is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean futures market fluctuates, lacking obvious driving factors. The domestic soybean meal futures market declines slightly, and the rapeseed meal futures market is weak. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal changes little. The inter - monthly spread of soybean meal futures fluctuates, while that of rapeseed meal futures rebounds [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The new US soybean balance sheet improves due to biodiesel policies, but there is no substantial bullish news in production and exports. As of the week ending June 15, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%. As of the week ending June 12, the export inspection volume of old US soybeans is 215,800 tons. The US soybean crushing data in May is good, with a NOPA - caliber crushing volume of 192.829 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 1.37%. The selling progress of Brazilian farmers is slow, and the pressure on prices is emerging. The Brazilian soybean crushing volume decreases, and the export may increase. The domestic crushing volume in Argentina may improve, but soybean exports may also increase [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal spot market is loose, with increasing oil mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and increasing inventory. As of June 27, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills is 2.4878 million tons, the operating rate is 69.93%, the soybean inventory is 6.6587 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 278,800 tons (4.37%) and a year - on - year increase of 1 million tons (17.68%); the soybean meal inventory is 691,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 182,700 tons (35.9%) and a year - on - year decrease of 361,400 tons (34.32%). The domestic rapeseed meal demand weakens, and although the operating rate of oil mills decreases, the supply is still sufficient, and the inventory increases. As of the week ending June 27, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills is 43,000 tons, the operating rate this week is 11.46%, the rapeseed inventory is 188,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,000 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory is 11,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 900 tons [6]. 3.3 Macro - analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London is completed, but there is no clear information. The market is worried about the uncertainty of future supply. Although the international trade has many uncertainties, the macro - disturbances are decreasing. China's long - term demand for US soybeans is high, so the price is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [7]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The domestic soybean meal futures market shows pressure, with a limited rebound and then a decline. The international market has slow selling progress in Brazil but firm prices. The deep - decline space of soybean meal is limited. The rapeseed meal futures market fluctuates, with limited upside space due to weak demand and high inventory. The inter - monthly spread of soybean meal futures has support, and that of rapeseed meal futures is strong. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may widen [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: It is recommended to buy a small amount of long positions in the far - month soybean meal futures [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Expand the MRM09 spread [8]. - **Options**: Wait and see [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] Core Viewpoints - In the current situation, the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans in China is putting significant supply pressure on the domestic market. The increasing soybean inventory and weakening Brazilian soybean premiums suggest limited support for import costs. Future attention should be paid to the arrival of new - season soybeans, the planting of new - season US soybeans, and policy changes [3] - For the corn market, the supply of domestic corn has slightly increased, while the demand from deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the procurement by feed enterprises has been relatively passive [5] Summary by Directory 粕类 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2961 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.17%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2604 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.19%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2850 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2560 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - US Market: As of May 25, the US soybean planting progress reached 76%, the emergence rate was 50%. As of May 22, the US soybean export inspection volume was 19.5 tons, and the total export inspection volume in the 2024/25 season reached 4433 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.0% [2] Market Analysis - Currently, it is the concentrated arrival period of Brazilian soybeans, bringing supply pressure to the domestic market. The soybean meal inventory has been increasing, and the weakening of Brazilian soybean premiums provides limited support for import costs [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2507 contract was 2325 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2507 contract was 2663 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (+0.41%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - US Market: As of May 25, the US corn crop's first - rated good - to - excellent rate was 68%, and the planting progress reached 87% [4] Market Analysis - Domestically, the supply of corn has slightly increased, while the demand from deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the procurement by feed enterprises has been relatively passive [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the rumor of the result of the rapeseed anti - dumping investigation on Saturday, grains showed strong performance. However, the rumor is unconfirmed and policy variables are large, so caution is advised when going long. - Domestic soybean meal is expected to gradually accumulate inventory, with spot prices and basis continuing to decline. - In the northern part of the US soybean - producing areas, there will be less rainfall in the next two weeks, but no abnormally high temperatures, and the expected impact is limited. - Brazilian premiums have stabilized recently. - In the short term, the bullish driving force is limited. The near - month futures and basis are still under supply pressure. The 109 contract is expected to maintain range - bound trading. - Continuously monitor policy and weather changes. Subsequently, consider long opportunities for M11 and 00 contracts [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Spread Data - The report presents the basis data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions such as Dalian, Tianjin, and Zhangjiagang, as well as the spread data between M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, etc., and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong [3][4]. International Data - It shows the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, the CNF premium of imported soybeans, and the trend of the CNF premium of soybeans in the United States and Brazil [4]. Inventory Data - As of last week, soybean inventory decreased slightly and is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. Soybean meal inventory increased to 20.69 tons and is still low. Feed companies' soybean meal inventory days increased but are still at a low level [5]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From May to July in China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The current purchase progress for June is 92.7%, July is 74.4%, and August is 29.7%. US soybean planting progress is fast, and there is a sign of dry weather in the next two weeks in some areas. The flood in the Argentine soybean - producing area is expected to have limited impact. - **Demand**: Before September, supply is expected to increase steadily. Poultry inventory remains high. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, leading to increased downstream transactions and better提货 [4][5].