// 债市综述 // 1.公开市场操作 央行公告称，1月8日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了99亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量99亿元，中标量99亿元。Wind数据显示，当日 无逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放99亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 银行间市场资金面平稳偏松，DR001加权平均利率小升并徘徊于1.27%附近。匿名点击（X-repo）系统上，隔夜报价在1.25%供给充裕；非银机构质押各类 券隔夜成交价仍有落差，质押利率债和存单隔夜在1.40%-1.45%附近，质押信用债依旧稍高，不少还在1.50%以上。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为3.66%。 （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.62%附近，较上日下行1bp。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4.银行间主要利率债收益率普遍下行 （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） 5. 近期城投债（AAA）各期限利差走势及数据。 （*数据来源：Wind-利差分析） 6. 国债期货主力合约 3 ...

Economic Policy and Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes multiple measures to stabilize investment and optimize the implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy [1][2] - The NDRC plans to increase central budget investment and enhance the effectiveness of new policy financial tools [2][3] - The focus will be on fostering emerging industries and future industries, particularly through the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [2][3] Healthcare Sector - The National Healthcare Security Administration aims to support the development of commercial health insurance and improve the multi-tiered medical security system [5][6] - There is a push to enhance prenatal examination medical expense coverage, striving for "no out-of-pocket" costs for childbirth within policy scope [5][6] - The administration plans to promote the inclusion of suitable delivery pain relief projects in the fund payment scope [6][7] Battery Industry - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology highlights the rapid growth of China's power and energy storage battery industry, which has gained global competitive advantages [3][4] - The industry faces challenges such as irrational competition, necessitating targeted policy measures and enhanced capacity monitoring [3][4] - There is a call for improved production consistency and quality supervision, alongside efforts to combat intellectual property violations [3][4] Film Industry - As of December 13, 2025, China's total box office reached 50 billion yuan, with domestic films accounting for 81.90% of the total [6] - The top five films of the year include "Ne Zha" and "Detective Chinatown 3," showcasing strong domestic film performance [6] Automotive Industry - Great Wall Motors and Chery Automobile express commitment to compliance with the "Automotive Industry Pricing Behavior Compliance Guidelines," promoting healthy competition [15][16] - Both companies emphasize long-termism and integrity in their operations, aiming to eliminate price wars and ensure fair market practices [15][16] Robotics and AI - Yushu Technology launches a humanoid robot "App Store," allowing users to share and download various action models for their robots [17] - The platform aims to foster global collaboration among developers and users in the robotics field [17] Investment Themes - CITIC Securities reports a shift in market sentiment towards short-term trading, with accelerated thematic rotation [18] - Key themes to watch include domestic GPU companies, controlled nuclear fusion, AI applications, and commercial aerospace [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand, with continuous inventory reduction. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. The technical indicator shows that the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines above the 0 - axis with the initial appearance of green columns. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 96,940 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 171,173 hands, up 6,764 hands; the position of the main contract is 543,633 hands, up 16,635 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 560 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 8,222 hands/ton, up 2,781 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 94,350 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 91,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 2,590 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,230 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 10,525 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 3,894 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 51,530 tons, up 4,390 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,880.69 tons, up 4,283.79 tons; the monthly export volume is 245.91 tons, up 95.10 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries is 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 36,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 180,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 166,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 146,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 157,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 39,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 64%, up 5%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,772,000 vehicles, up 155,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,715,000 vehicles, up 111,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 12,943,000 vehicles, up 3,193,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 256,000 vehicles, up 34,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and year - on - year increase is 2,014,000 vehicles, up 956,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 59.51%, down 0.1%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 45.26%, down 0.36% [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 279,793 contracts, up 4,316 contracts; the total put position is 276,207 contracts, up 19,248 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions is 98.72%, up 5.4405%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.36%, down 0.0047% [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a symposium on power and energy - storage battery manufacturing enterprises, aiming to promote high - quality development of the industry [2] - The deputy secretary - general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicted that China's annual automobile sales will exceed 34 million vehicles, with new energy vehicle sales expected to reach 16 million vehicles and automobile exports expected to exceed 6.8 million vehicles [2] - Russian President Putin said that Chinese electric vehicles are more competitive than European ones [2] - China's manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report provides market trend judgments and investment suggestions for various commodities, including macro - financial, black, non - ferrous, agricultural, and energy - chemical sectors. It analyzes the current situation, influencing factors, and future trends of each commodity, aiming to help investors make decisions [2][3][13][14]. Summary by Directory Macro Information - Politburo meetings focus on central inspections and network ecological governance. The official manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The central bank cracks down on virtual currency trading, and the Ministry of Finance releases state - owned enterprise revenue and profit data. The China Securities Regulatory Commission solicits opinions on regulatory measures, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promotes battery industry governance and satellite IoT business trials. The National Space Administration establishes a commercial space department, and six major state - owned banks withdraw 5 - year large - denomination certificates of deposit. The real estate TOP100 enterprises' land acquisition increased by 14.1% year - on - year from January to November [7][8][9]. Macro - Financial Stock Index Futures - Adopt an oscillatory approach and wait and see. In November, stock indices fell, and the market turnover reached a 4 - month low. Industrial enterprise data showed a short - term decline in October, but there were highlights in the equipment and high - tech manufacturing industries. The manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in November were below expectations and in the contraction range [13]. Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market may continue to fluctuate widely. The recent sharp decline of bonds was affected by the redemption of public bond funds. For 10 - year medium - short - duration bonds, consider buying on dips, and be cautious with ultra - long - duration bonds. Pay attention to the central bank's bond - buying scale [14]. Black Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term. Coal production may be restricted by safety supervision and environmental protection at the end of the year, but short - term supply may increase, and potential negative feedback risks from weak steel demand still exist [16]. Ferroalloys - In early December, focus on the settlement electricity fees in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia. Silicon iron plants may have a higher probability of production cuts. It is recommended to go long on silicon iron in the medium term and wait and see on manganese silicon [17]. Non - Ferrous and New Materials Shanghai Zinc - As of November 27, domestic zinc inventories decreased. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels or take profits and operate cyclically. Zinc prices have been fluctuating, with short - term support from falling processing fees, but downstream procurement is still cautious [22]. Shanghai Lead - As of November 27, lead inventories decreased. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously. The supply of lead is regionally tight, and the production enthusiasm of secondary lead enterprises has declined [23]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, it will fluctuate widely. Although the medium - to - long - term demand is good, the recent fundamental weakening limits the upward space. The concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of the month is beneficial to the market, but the policy may have a negative impact [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Both will continue to oscillate. Industrial silicon has limited downward adjustment space due to potential environmental protection impacts on supply. Polysilicon has a strong willingness of upstream to support prices, but weak supply - demand contradictions limit the upward movement [26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton may oscillate and rebound due to high costs and a strong basis, but the supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. The USDA's November report was negative for cotton, and domestic cotton inventories are accumulating [28][29]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure from new sugar supply, but cost support limits the decline. Globally, there is an expected surplus of sugar in the 2025/26 season [30]. Eggs - The near - term 01 contract may oscillate. There is an expectation of price increase before the Spring Festival, but the increase may be limited. The far - term contracts may be strong due to the expected decline in inventory, but be cautious about chasing high prices [32][33]. Apples - The price trend is expected to be oscillatory and slightly strong. The apple storage is almost finished, and the inventory is lower than last year. The trading in the production areas has slowed down, and the sales in the consumer areas are affected by citrus [34][35]. Corn - The 01 contract may oscillate at a high level in the short term, but the upward momentum may weaken. The far - term contracts may be weaker due to potential supply pressure [36]. Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable at a low level, and the futures market is weak [37][38]. Live Pigs - In the short term, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is average. It is recommended to go short on the near - term contracts at high prices. In the long term, the decline in the number of breeding sows is beneficial to future pig prices [38][39]. Energy - Chemical Crude Oil - The price is oscillating. The market is trading around geopolitical conflicts. If a cease - fire agreement is reached, the geopolitical premium may fade. OPEC+ may continue to suspend production increases, but it is difficult to reverse the supply surplus [41]. Fuel Oil - The price follows the trend of crude oil. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The short - term focus is on geopolitical factors [42]. Plastics - Polyolefins may oscillate weakly due to high supply pressure and weak demand. Although the upstream is losing money, there is no strong driving force for a sharp rise [43][44]. Rubber - The price may be oscillatory and slightly strong in the short term. Pay attention to the impact of Southeast Asian weather on supply. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options or buy call options [45]. Synthetic Rubber - It is recommended to sell call options at high prices or go short. The raw material may continue to decline, and the price may be under pressure after the restart of maintenance devices [46]. Methanol - Near - term contracts should be treated with an oscillatory approach, and far - term contracts can also be oscillatory. If inventory reduction is smooth, a slightly long - biased configuration can be considered [47]. Caustic Soda - Maintain an oscillatory approach. The spot price is falling, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly [48]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation may increase. The focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The real - time demand is ending, and the winter storage has not started [49]. Polyester Industry Chain - The current supply - demand structure is okay, and the price may be strong in the short term due to rising oil prices, but the upward driving force is weakening [50]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price increase may not be sustainable. Be cautious about chasing high prices. The supply is regionally mismatched, and the demand side may form a negative feedback [51]. Pulp - It is expected to enter an oscillatory range. It is recommended to wait and see. Options can be used for cost - reduction, efficiency - improvement, or hedging [53]. Logs - The fundamentals are oscillatory and weak. The inventory may start to accumulate, and the price is expected to be under pressure [53]. Urea - The spot price may be oscillatory and strong, and the futures market may have short - term emotional trading. Adopt a short - term intraday long approach [54].

5.当地时间11月30日，美国国务卿鲁比奥在当日举行的美乌新一轮谈判后表示，与乌方的会谈"富有成 效"，但还有很多工作要做。他同时表示，美国政府会在未来一周加强外交努力，美国中东问题特使威 特科夫预计将前往莫斯科进行进一步会谈。 6.11月29日消息，公安部对2018年制定的《公安机关互联网安全监督检查规定》进行修订，起草了《公 安机关网络空间安全监督检查办法（征求意见稿）》，现向社会公开征求意见。主要包括六方面内容： 一是明确监督检查对象。二是明确监督检查方式。三是明确监督检查内容。四是明确监督检查频次。五 是明确检查结果运用。六是明确相关法律责任。 重要的消息有哪些 1.国务院安委会日前印发通知，部署开展高层建筑重大火灾风险隐患排查整治行动，聚焦有人员居住和 活动的高层民用建筑（包括居民住宅建筑和办公、医疗、商业等公共建筑）开展排查整治，特别是正在 进行外墙改造施工和内部局部装修改造的高层民用建筑，全面加强高层建筑消防安全管理，切实保障人 民群众生命财产安全。 2.国家统计局发布数据显示，11月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分 点，景气水平有所改善。从企业规模看，大型企 ...

01 A股重要指数样本股调整 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 11月28日，中证指数网站发布关于沪深300、中证500、中证1000、中证A500等指数定期调整结果的公告称，此次调整为指数样本的定期 调整，将于12月12日收市后正式生效。 其中沪深300指数更换11只样本，华电新能、东山精密、指南针、胜宏科技等调入指数。中证500指数更换50只样本，和而泰、华虹公 司、东方雨虹、天合光能等调入指数。中证1000指数更换100只样本，仕佳光子、永鼎股份、王府井、德科立等调入指数。中证A50指数 更换4只样本，华工科技、光启技术、中际旭创、胜宏科技等调入指数。中证A100指数更换6只样本，东方财富、胜宏科技、中科曙光、 赛力斯等调入指数。中证A500指数更换20只样本，国泰海通、芯原股份、指南针等调入指数。 中证指数公告称，上交所与中证指数有限公司决定调整上证50、上证180、上证380、科创50等指数样本，于12月12日收市后生效。其中 上证50指数更换4只样本，上汽集团、北方稀土、中科曙光等调入指数。上证180指数更换7只样本，国投资本、中天科技、瑞芯微等调入 指数。上证380指数更换38只 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a continuous upward trend and influenced by the adjustment of US stocks overseas, market risk appetite has decreased, and the short - term index faces certain uncertainties. However, in the long - run, the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the main strategy is to buy on dips [11][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: Future global computing power is expected to reach over 70 times the current level in 10 years; the shortage of global storage chips is intensifying, and prices are expected to rise by about 50% by Q2 2026; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to regulate the battery industry; spot silver has reached a new high [11] - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In October 2025, industrial added - value grew by 4.9%, consumer retail sales by 2.9%, and fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7%. The official manufacturing PMI was 49.0. M1 and M2 growth rates declined, and social financing increment decreased year - on - year. Exports in September and housing prices in October also showed certain trends [11] - **Interest Rate and Credit Environment**: The 10Y Treasury bond rate and credit bond rate rebounded this week, and the credit spread slightly widened. Liquidity remained loose [11] - **Trading Strategies**: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term; hold IF long positions for 6 months [13] 2. Spot and Futures Markets - **Stock Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and other major stock indices all rose, with the ChiNext Index leading with a 4.54% increase. The AH ratio decreased by 1.02% [15] - **Futures Contract Performance**: All major futures contracts, such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, showed varying degrees of increase [16] 3. Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic Indicators**: Q3 2025 GDP actual growth was 4.8%. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0, consumption growth was 2.9%, exports grew by - 1.1%, and investment growth was - 1.7% [36][39][42] - **Corporate Earnings**: In the Q3 2025 report, the year - on - year revenue growth was 1.24%, and the net profit growth was 3.89%, both showing an upward trend compared to the semi - annual report [45] 4. Interest Rate and Credit Environment - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Treasury bond rate and 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate showed certain trends [48] - **Credit Environment**: In October 2025, M1 and M2 growth rates decreased, and social financing increment decreased year - on - year [58] 5. Capital Flows - **Inflow**: This week, new partial - stock fund shares were about 138.4 billion, and margin trading increased by about 98.34 billion yuan [64][65] - **Outflow**: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 74.35 billion yuan, and there were 2 IPO approvals [69] 6. Valuation - **Valuation Indicators**: The PE (TTM) of SSE 50 was 11.83, CSI 300 was 13.94, CSI 500 was 32.03, and CSI 1000 was 46.44. The PB (LF) of SSE 50 was 1.29, CSI 300 was 1.45, CSI 500 was 2.19, and CSI 1000 was 2.44 [73]