搞完医药搞芯片！ 9月26日午后，突然传来重磅消息。据路透社报道，消息人士称，特朗普政府权衡减少半导体进口的计 划。美国计划将要求国产芯片与进口芯片数量相等，特朗普将矛头对准芯片制造商，制定新计划限制进 口，未能保持进口和国产芯片比例均等的公司将支付巨额关税。 在关税方面经历了一段时间的平静之后，今天早上，美国总统特朗普宣布将于10月1日生效新一轮部门关 税。美国关税税率持续提升，凸显关税威胁并没有消失。 牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限 量发放！先到先得！ 经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）表示，今年美国和全球经济放缓幅度预计将低于此前预期，但由于关税 上调对经济活动造成越来越大的影响，2026年美国和全球经济将继续失去动力。 剑指半导体生产 据9月26日消息，特朗普政府正在考虑一项新的半导体政策，要求芯片公司在国内制造的半导体数量与其 客户从海外生产商进口的半导体数量相同，如果公司未能长期保持这种1:1的比例，将面临大约100%的 关税。 美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克与半导体行业高管讨论了这一概念，理由是美国科技公司严重依赖海外芯 片生产，容易受到多重 ...

据央视新闻，当地时间9月4日，美国总统特朗普宣布，美政府将对未将生产转移至美国的半导体企业进 口产品征收关税。他强调，若企业在美投资或有建厂计划，则可豁免关税。 特朗普称关税幅度将"相当可观，但不会过高"，并点名表示苹果CEO库克"不错"，因苹果已承诺未来四 年在美投资6000亿美元。此前，台积电、三星与SK海力士均已宣布在美建厂。 特朗普频繁以关税施压，扰动全球市场，加剧经贸不确定性。 当地时间8月6日，特朗普表示，将对所有进口芯片和半导体征收100%关税，"正在美国建厂"的企业除 外。据美国CNBC电视台报道，这项针对特定行业的新关税政策表明，特朗普正在加大对企业的施压力 度，要求他们在美国生产产品。但具体细节尚未公布。 据报道，特朗普当天下午在白宫椭圆形办公室表示，"我们将对芯片和半导体征收高额关税，但对苹果 这样的公司来说，好消息是，如果你在美国建厂，或者已明确承诺在美国建厂，那么毫无疑问，将不会 被征收这项关税。" 他补充说，"换言之，我们将对芯片和半导体征收约100%的关税。但如果企业在美 国本土建厂，就不会被收费。" 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追究 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is negotiating with Intel to inject federal funds to accelerate semiconductor production in the U.S. and revive Intel's delayed Ohio factory project [3][5]. Group 1: Negotiation Details - The negotiations have progressed following a meeting between President Trump and Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, although specific terms are still undetermined [5]. - This potential federal investment would mark a rare instance of the government directly investing in a private tech company [5]. - The move reflects a shift in policy from traditional subsidies to direct industrial policy, driven by national security concerns regarding semiconductor production [5]. Group 2: Industry Implications - Semiconductors are critical for powering devices from smartphones to defense systems, and Intel's struggles have raised national security alarms [5]. - The government’s actions are consistent with recent investments in companies like MP Materials and requirements for Nvidia and AMD to remit 15% of their GPU revenue from sales to China [5]. - The potential investment in Intel could further incentivize collaboration between chip design companies and Intel, especially in light of national security issues related to domestic wafer fabrication and advanced chip technology [5]. Group 3: Political Context - The Ohio site for Intel's factory holds significant political importance, as Trump has won the state in all three of his presidential campaigns, and it is the home state of Vice President Vance [5]. - The project carries substantial political weight as the 2026 Senate elections approach, indicating its potential impact on future political dynamics [5].

Group 1: Lexin Group (乐信集团) - The company is experiencing a continuous improvement in profitability, with a significant year-on-year net profit growth of 126% in Q2 2025, reaching 511 million yuan, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19% [1][2] - The improvement in profitability is primarily attributed to a decrease in provisioning expenses and an increase in revenue, with the net take rate reaching 1.92%, up 34 basis points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company maintains a buy rating with a target price of $11.80, indicating a potential upside of 73.5% from the current price of $6.80 [1][2] Group 2: Legend Biotech (传奇生物) - The company reported adjusted earnings in Q2 2025, with Carvykti sales reaching $439 million, marking a 19% year-on-year and 136% quarter-on-quarter increase, setting a new record for CAR-T therapy sales in a single quarter [8][9] - Despite a net loss of $125 million, the company achieved adjusted net profit of $10 million after excluding non-operating items, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [8] - The target price has been raised to $74, reflecting a potential upside of 100% from the current price of $37 [8][9] Group 3: Rui Pu Lan Jun (瑞浦兰钧) - The company experienced a 25% revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with sales of lithium battery products doubling year-on-year to 32.4 GWh [10][11] - Gross margin improved significantly, rising by 5.9 percentage points to 8.5%, while net loss decreased by 85% to 65.32 million yuan [10] - The target price has been adjusted to 15.46 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 33.8% from the current price of 11.55 HKD [10][11] Group 4: Battery Industry - In July 2025, the growth rate of battery installations slowed, with a total of 55.9 GWh installed, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 4% [14][15] - Battery exports remained robust, with July exports reaching 23.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, despite a month-on-month decline of 4.7% [15] - The supply-demand balance is expected to support lithium prices, especially with the suspension of operations at a key lithium mine [15]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports to the U.S. by President Trump may have limited direct impact on Taiwanese semiconductor companies, but could suppress end-demand due to trade barriers, potentially affecting order momentum from clients [1] Group 1: Tariff Policy and Impact - The specifics of the tariff policy, including its implementation and details, are still unclear and subject to negotiation [1] - Current analysis indicates that semiconductor foundries and IC design firms rarely export chips directly to the U.S.; instead, chips are typically sent to assembly plants in Asia before being exported as finished products [1] - The actual targets of the tariffs are likely to be end electronic products or component modules, which means there is no direct impact on semiconductor manufacturers [1] Group 2: Industry Reactions - Panel driver IC manufacturer Tianyu assesses that the impact of the semiconductor tariff on operations should be minimal due to low direct exports to the U.S. [1] - Industry analyst Joann from TrendForce notes that suppressed end-demand due to trade barriers could indirectly affect order momentum for semiconductor firms, representing a potential risk [1] - Sensory chip manufacturer Realtek has not observed significant operational impacts from the tariffs but will continue to monitor future developments and their effects on inflation, economic conditions, and consumer markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of President Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on semiconductors, highlighting the possibility of exemptions for certain companies like TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix due to their investments in the U.S. [1][2][3] Group 1: Tariff Implications - Trump announced a potential 100% tariff on semiconductors, with TSMC possibly receiving an exemption due to its U.S. investments [1] - The Taiwanese government indicated that some semiconductor companies might be affected, but their competitors would also face similar tariff impacts [1] - Experts warn that such high tariffs could severely damage the U.S. electronics and IT sectors, which rely heavily on advanced chips from Asia [2][3] Group 2: Company Responses - TSMC has announced an additional investment of $100 billion in the U.S., which may give it leverage in tariff negotiations [1] - Samsung and SK Hynix are likely to avoid high tariffs due to their existing U.S. operations and the dependence of U.S. tech companies on their chips [2] - The South Korean government has stated that it will not face higher tariffs than other countries, ensuring fair treatment [3] Group 3: Industry Reactions - The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) emphasized the importance of maintaining cost competitiveness in the U.S. semiconductor sector, which is investing $630 billion across 28 states [4] - SIA expressed a desire for clarity on the tariff exemption structure and its implications for U.S. semiconductor leadership in global markets [5]

据央视新闻，特朗普周三宣布将对半导体和芯片进口征收100%关税，但为在美国建厂的公司提供豁 免。这一针对价值超6000亿美元关键行业的政策威胁引发市场广泛关注，但分析师敏锐指出，关键细节 仍不明确。 特朗普表示，关税政策将不适用于"在美国建厂"的公司。台积电、三星等已在美投资数千亿美元建厂的 主要芯片制造商股价周四上涨，市场预期这些公司可能获得豁免资格。 据报道，韩国贸易特使表示三星和SK海力士将免于100%关税，推动两家公司股价走高。分析师认为， 该政策可能进一步巩固大型芯片制造商的市场份额。 然而，政策的具体实施范围、豁免标准以及对复杂半导体供应链的影响仍存在诸多不确定性，为投资者 和行业参与者带来挑战。 大型厂商或成赢家 市场最关注的问题之一是企业需要在美国投入多少制造产能才能获得关税豁免资格。 台积电等在美国有重大投资的亚洲主要芯片公司股价在特朗普宣布后的周四上午交易中上涨。台积电今 年早些时候宣布将在美投资扩大至1650亿美元。 韩国三星和SK海力士的股价也在上涨，两家公司都已承诺在美国投资建厂。据报道，韩国贸易特使称 这两家公司将免于100%关税。 豁免范围仍不明确 除豁免问题外，潜在关税政策的许 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is considering imposing tariffs on semiconductor imports, with results from a national security investigation expected in two weeks, potentially affecting major semiconductor manufacturers and designers [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Investigation and Implications - The U.S. Commerce Secretary announced that the investigation into semiconductor imports is based on the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, focusing on national security implications [1]. - Trump has indicated that tariffs could range from 25% to 100%, with a likely implementation window after mid-August [1][5]. - Major semiconductor companies and industry associations are urging caution, warning that broad tariffs could severely damage the U.S. semiconductor industry [1]. Group 2: International Trade Agreements - Trump stated that many companies will invest in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing to avoid the impact of new tariffs, while also highlighting a recent agreement with the EU for a 15% tariff rate [2][3]. - The agreement with the EU includes significant investments and purchases of U.S. military and energy products, with implications for the automotive and agricultural sectors [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The implementation of semiconductor tariffs is expected to have profound effects on global supply chains and the U.S. economy, with skepticism from industry experts regarding the effectiveness of the policy in bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. [4]. - An estimate from ITIF suggests that a 25% tariff could lead to a 0.18% decline in U.S. economic growth in the first year, accumulating to a GDP loss of $1.4 trillion over ten years [5].

Core Viewpoint - Major US semiconductor companies, including Micron, Qualcomm, and Texas Instruments, are seeking relief from anticipated semiconductor import tariffs through comments submitted to the US Department of Commerce, highlighting the complexity of the semiconductor supply chain and the potential negative impact of poorly designed tariffs on US interests [1][2][3]. Group 1: Micron Technology's Position - Micron emphasizes its role as the only large-scale memory component manufacturer in the US and plans to invest $140 billion over the next 20 years to support US national and economic security [5][9]. - The company argues that tariffs on semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) could disadvantage US manufacturers by increasing costs and harming competitiveness [17][19]. - Micron's investment is expected to create 80,000 jobs and contribute $1.4 trillion to the US economy over 20 years, while also addressing national security risks associated with memory chip production concentrated in Asia [12][14]. Group 2: Qualcomm's Position - Qualcomm highlights its leadership in semiconductor design and its critical role in 5G and 6G technology, advocating for reduced regulatory burdens to facilitate expansion and investment in the US [28][30]. - The company stresses the importance of maintaining a strong domestic supply chain to support its operations and the broader semiconductor industry, while also emphasizing the need for government policies that stimulate domestic demand for semiconductors [29][39]. - Qualcomm warns that tariffs could jeopardize its global market access and the US's position as a technology leader, urging careful consideration of the implications of any tariff actions [38][40]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The semiconductor industry is characterized by a complex, interdependent global supply chain, where even minor disruptions can lead to significant competitive disadvantages for US companies [39]. - The industry is facing challenges related to high manufacturing costs in the US compared to Asia, necessitating supportive government policies to enhance competitiveness and attract investment [13][24]. - The need for a coordinated trade policy that supports US semiconductor manufacturing growth is critical, as tariffs could inadvertently harm domestic manufacturers and hinder the goal of increasing US semiconductor production [16][22].

Group 1 - The earnings reports of major US technology stocks will commence this week, starting with Tesla on April 22, followed by Google and Intel on April 24, and Microsoft, Meta, and Broadcom on April 30, with Apple and Amazon on May 1, and Nvidia concluding on May 28 [1] - The outlook for these major US technology companies is expected to significantly impact market sentiment, particularly in light of the upcoming semiconductor tariff policy from the Trump administration [1] - Analysts predict that details regarding the Trump semiconductor tariff policy will be finalized by May 7, which will influence the semiconductor industry's performance in the second half of the year [1]