智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，近日，《育儿补贴制度实施方案》公布，此前已相继有地区 层面的生育补贴政策出台，本次在全国层面全面向群众直接发放现金补贴，属于自上而下的政策定调， 具有开创性意义，后续地区层面政策接力有望形成合力。近年婴配粉行业需求承压，本次政策刺激下需 求及消费信心有望恢复，叠加2024年生肖偏好催化下人口数量增长，2025年婴配粉需求有望迎来阶段性 好转。此外，近期乳制品行业出现新的积极变化，看好婴配粉需求改善及原奶周期反转后全产业链盈利 修复。 近年婴配粉行业需求承压，本次政策刺激下需求及消费信心有望恢复，叠加2024年生肖偏好催化下人口 数量增长，2025年婴配粉需求有望迎来阶段性好转。从整体乳制品行业来看，长期也将受益于政策刺激 下人口问题改善趋势。 开源证券主要观点如下： 国家育儿补贴方案落地，全国层面发放现金补贴具有开创性 7月28日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅发布《育儿补贴制度实施方案》，明确了补贴对象和标准， 从2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定生育的3周岁以下婴幼儿发放补贴，育儿补贴按年发放，现阶 段国家基础标准为每孩每年3600元，发放补贴至婴幼儿年满3周岁 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Tianrun Dairy (600419) [2][8] Core Views - The demand remains weak, impacting profitability due to impairment losses. In Q1 2025, total revenue was CNY 625 million, down 2.5% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -CNY 73 million compared to CNY 5 million in the same period last year [2][8] - The company is actively adjusting to pressures, with expectations for gradual improvement in operations throughout the year. The report anticipates that the reduction in cattle and the introduction of new products will help stabilize revenue and improve profitability [2][8] Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to grow from CNY 2,804 million in 2024 to CNY 3,327 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.3%, 5.2%, 6.4%, and 6.0% respectively [4] - Net profit is expected to recover from CNY 44 million in 2024 to CNY 204 million in 2027, with significant growth rates of -69.3%, 94.2%, 100.6%, and 20.0% [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to increase from CNY 0.14 in 2024 to CNY 0.64 in 2027, reflecting the company's recovery strategy [4] - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 72 in 2024 to 15 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings recover [4] Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, the sales revenue from various product lines showed a decline, with revenue from ambient products at CNY 347 million, down 4.37%, and low-temperature products at CNY 239 million, down 0.64% [8] - The company experienced a 12.37% increase in dairy product sales volume year-on-year, attributed to promotional activities in the Xinjiang region [8] Strategic Adjustments - The company is focusing on reducing cattle numbers and introducing new products to adapt to market pressures. New product launches include passion fruit milk beer and baked milk skin, aimed at diversifying revenue streams [8] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the raw milk price cycle and the potential impact of consumer stimulus policies on future performance [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 20.1 billion yuan in FY24, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, with a shareholder loss of 0.691 billion yuan, an improvement from a loss of 1.050 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - The raw milk business showed strong growth, while the ruminant animal breeding solutions business faced challenges, with revenues of 15.1 billion yuan and 5 billion yuan respectively for FY24, reflecting year-on-year changes of +17.0% and -13.7% [3] - The company’s cash EBITDA for FY24 reached 5.32 billion yuan, a significant increase of 38.3% year-on-year, indicating strong operational performance despite accounting losses from biological asset impairments [4] - The raw milk price is expected to enter a reversal cycle, with the company positioned to benefit as a leading player in the industry, anticipating a recovery in demand alongside supply-side adjustments [5] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for FY24 was 20.1 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 10.05 billion yuan for H2 FY24, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [2] - The gross margin for FY24 was 28.8%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material prices and improved operational management [4] Business Segments - The raw milk segment achieved a revenue of 15.1 billion yuan in FY24, with a volume of 3.6695 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%, while the average selling price (ASP) decreased by 6.1% to 4.12 yuan/kg [3] - The company has increased its dairy cow inventory to 622,000 heads, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, enhancing its production capacity [3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for FY25 and FY26 to 22.25 billion yuan and 24.49 billion yuan respectively, with an additional forecast for FY27 at 25.79 billion yuan [6] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for FY25 and FY26 have been revised to 0.17 yuan and 0.28 yuan respectively, with a new forecast for FY27 at 0.38 yuan [7]

Summary of Dairy Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The dairy industry is expected to face an oversupply situation in 2024, with domestic raw milk production projected to decrease by 3% in 2025, leading to a potential supply-demand balance in the second half of the year [1][4] - The industry has seen a significant shift in structure, with domestic production increasing from 25 million tons to 32 million tons, while imports have decreased from over 22 million tons to around 15 million tons [2] Key Insights and Arguments - Investment opportunities are currently concentrated in the upstream segment, as upstream capacity reduction is expected to lead to a reversal of the industry cycle and an increase in milk prices [1][5] - The price of contract milk has decreased, with spot milk prices dropping to 1.5 RMB/kg, causing cash flow pressures for social farms [1][8] - Major dairy companies are expected to see improved operating profits and gross margins due to increased downstream demand and cost advantages from locking in low-priced raw materials [9][10] Future Predictions - By 2025, the dairy market is anticipated to reach a state of supply-demand balance, with a projected reduction in total production due to cash flow pressures on social farms [7][4] - The overall surplus in 2024 is estimated to be around 200,000 to 300,000 tons, indicating a high single-digit percentage of oversupply [2] Investment Opportunities - Current investment opportunities are primarily in the upstream sector, with expectations that as upstream capacity is reduced, the investment focus will shift to downstream dairy products [5][6] - The valuation of leading dairy companies has been recovering, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of approximately 0.8, indicating significant upside potential [11] Market Dynamics - The price of beef directly impacts the industry's clearing pace, with lower beef prices leading to reduced cash recovery from culling cows, thus prolonging the current cycle [13][14] - The cash recovery from culling cows has decreased significantly, affecting the overall economic viability of dairy farming [14] Regulatory and Policy Considerations - Future policies may focus on promoting family farming, which could alter the current market dynamics but is unlikely to significantly change the existing structure in the short term [18][19] - The implementation of new policies faces challenges, particularly in ensuring food safety and quality, as smaller enterprises may struggle to meet the standards set by larger companies [19] Monitoring Indicators - Key indicators to monitor include contract milk prices, raw milk prices, and the volume of limited contract purchases, as well as high-frequency data on inventory and consumption policies [12] - The ratio of heifers to mature cows is currently around 51% to 52%, with concerns that if high-yield cows are culled without timely replacements, it could lead to short-term milk shortages [22] Conclusion - The dairy industry is at a critical juncture, with potential investment opportunities in the upstream segment as the market adjusts to supply-demand dynamics. Monitoring key indicators and regulatory developments will be essential for navigating the evolving landscape of the dairy sector [28]