季度报告——焦煤/焦炭 政策扰动供需已变，价格触底回升 | 9[Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 焦煤/焦炭：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 9 | 月 | 26 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★焦煤：政策扰动供应下降，价格筑底反弹 焦煤方面，四季度随着年末临近，煤矿保安全生产为主，多数企业在 完成或接近完成年度生产计划后，将逐步放缓生产节奏，预计整体供 应呈稳中趋降态势。因此年内供应高点已过，四季度供应水平难以回 升至二季度高位，但在无显著政策干预的情况下，供应亦难出现大幅 收缩。蒙煤方面，由于上半年进口进度偏慢，蒙方仍有达成年度煤炭 出口目标需求，叠加价格环境改善，四季度蒙煤进口预计将维持高位 运行。需求端来看，尽管铁水日均产量仍保持在 240 万吨以上，但下 游实际承接情况仍存疑。 ★焦炭：成本下移，但利润维持低位 焦炭进入三季度后，尽管焦炭价格有所上涨，但成本端焦煤价格涨幅 更为显著。目前部分煤种价格已较 1 月份水平高出约 50–100 元/吨。 由于焦 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. There is support due to certain repair in steel demand, high hot metal production, and strong steel exports. However, there is also short - term pressure from factors such as expected hot metal production cuts, continuous steel inventory accumulation, and a decline in coal daily consumption in August. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand in September, as well as overseas tariffs and domestic macro and industrial policies [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the overall supply - demand is relatively balanced. The coking coal price has a callback in the futures market, and the coke's seventh - round price increase has partially landed. In the medium term, the coking coal price center will gradually rise, and one can wait for adjustments and then go long on far - month contracts at low prices [11]. - The iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The factors driving price increases are weakening, and the market may shift to the relatively rapid weakening of terminal steel demand [16]. - For ferroalloys, both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have a bottom - oscillating trend recently. The high - premium risk has been largely released, and the supply and demand sides have different characteristics that need attention [18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Related Information - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in August was 55.4. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased by 11,000 to 235,000 in the week ending August 16. In July 2025, China's excavator output was 24,732 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. From January to July 2025, China's excavator output was 205,299 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [2]. - The spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,300 yuan (+10), in Beijing was 3,260 yuan (-), the spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3,420 yuan (-10), and in Tianjin was 3,370 yuan (-10) [3]. Logic Analysis - The black - metal sector maintained an oscillating trend in the night session yesterday. Steel production resumed this week, with rebar production decreasing and hot - rolled coil production increasing. The overall inventory of the five major steel products accumulated, but the accumulation speed slowed down. Steel exports remained strong, and building - material demand rebounded from the bottom. Steel demand has shown some repair, and high hot - metal production and strong exports support steel prices. However, with the approaching military parade, hot - metal production is expected to decrease next week, and there is short - term pressure on steel prices. But the production - cut window is short, and the downside space is limited. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The steel price maintains a bottom - oscillating trend. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to enter into a long - position in the basis when it is low and continue to hold. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke Related Information - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from last week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points from last year. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from last week and an increase of 4.30 percentage points from last year. The steel - mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from last week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points from last year. The daily average hot - metal output was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 0.34 million tons from last week and an increase of 1.189 million tons from last year. - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 85.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The daily average raw - coal output was 1.912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 tons. The raw - coal inventory was 4.716 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,000 tons. The daily average clean - coal output was 771,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons. The clean - coal inventory was 2.756 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 180,000 tons [9]. - The warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) in Lvliang, Shanxi was 1,596 yuan/ton, in Rizhao Port was 1,616 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (dry - quenched) in Lvliang, Shanxi was 1,700 yuan/ton. The warehouse - receipt price of Shanxi coal was 1,180 yuan/ton, Mongolian No. 5 coal was 1,099 yuan/ton, Mongolian No. 3 coal was 1,063 yuan/ton, and Australian coal (port spot) was 1,235 yuan/ton [10]. Logic Analysis - The hot - metal production increased slightly this week, and the steel mills' demand for raw materials was resilient. The coal - mine production also increased slightly, but considering factors such as over - production inspection and safety supervision, the resumption of production is expected to be limited. The overall commodity sentiment has cooled recently, and the coking - coal price in the futures market has corrected. In the spot market, the coking - coal price has both increases and decreases, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. The seventh - round price increase of coke has partially landed and is expected to be fully implemented in the next two days. In the medium term, due to relevant policies on over - production inspection and safety supervision, the supply of coal will be disturbed, and the coking - coal price center will gradually rise [11]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait for adjustments and then go long on far - month contracts at low prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. - Spot - futures: Wait and see [13]. Iron Ore Related Information - The EU and the US issued a joint statement, announcing the details of the new trade agreement reached in July. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and timber. The EU promised to cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products. - In July, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. - As of August 2025, 20 troubled real - estate enterprises' debt restructuring and reorganization have been approved, with a total debt - resolution scale of over 1.2 trillion yuan. - The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 769 yuan (+2), converted to the standard product was 810 yuan; the spot price of Super Special fines was 650 yuan (+5), converted to the standard product was 876 yuan; the spot price of Carajas fines was 881 yuan (+3), converted to the standard product was 838 yuan. The mainstream pricing product was PB fines with a spot price of 769 yuan (+2) and a standard - product price of 810 yuan, and the basis of the main contract of iron ore 01 was 38 [14]. Logic Analysis - The iron ore price oscillated narrowly in the night session. Fundamentally, the shipment of mainstream mines was stable, and it was difficult to see a large increase year - on - year. The shipment of non - mainstream mines in August continued to be at a high level year - on - year and was expected to contribute a certain increase. On the demand side, the growth rate of manufacturing and infrastructure investment slowed down significantly in July. The weakening of manufacturing may be due to the relatively fast progress of equipment - renewal funds in the first half of the year and the slowdown in the second half. Compared with the steel demand in the first half of the year, the demand for construction steel continued to be weak. The steel demand in the manufacturing industry increased by more than 7% year - on - year in the first half of the year, but it has weakened significantly in the third quarter so far, suppressing the current terminal steel demand. Overall, the factors driving the price increase have weakened, and the market may shift to the relatively rapid weakening of terminal steel demand, so the iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [15][16]. Trading Strategies No specific trading strategies for iron ore are provided in a complete form in the text. Ferroalloys Related Information - From January to July 2025, the total domestic billet export volume was 747,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 309.72%. In July, the domestic billet export volume was 157,980 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.37% and a year - on - year increase of 349.07%. - On the 21st, the semi - carbonate price at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton - degree, Gabon lump was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree, CML Australian lump was 41.5 - 42 yuan/ton - degree, South32 Australian lump was 40.5 yuan/ton - degree, South African high - iron ore was 29.8 yuan/ton - degree, and South African medium - iron lump was 36.5 yuan/ton - degree [18]. Logic Analysis - For ferrosilicon, the spot price was stable with a slight decline on the 21st, and the spot price in some regions decreased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the production has been increasing recently. Pay attention to whether the resumption - of - production trend will stop after the price decline. On the demand side, the sample steel production still remained at a high level this week, supporting the demand for raw materials. After the significant price decline this week, the futures price is approaching the cost of some production areas, and the high - premium risk has been largely released, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently [18]. - For silicomanganese, the manganese - ore spot price was stable with a slight decline on the 21st, and the price of Gabon lump at Tianjin Port decreased by 0.1 yuan/ton - degree. The overall silicomanganese spot price declined, and the spot price in some regions decreased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. On the supply side, also pay attention to whether the current resumption - of - production rhythm will be interrupted after the price decline. On the demand side, the apparent demand of the rebar sample increased slightly this week and has not yet formed a downward trend. At the current price, the high - premium risk has been largely released, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently [19]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The futures price is approaching the cost of some production areas, and the high - premium risk has been largely released. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently. - Arbitrage: Enter into a long - position in the basis when it is low. - Options: Sell a straddle option combination at high prices [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Coke - The sixth round of coke price increase has started, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Coke enterprise profits have significantly improved, coke production from coke enterprises has increased, while that from steel mills has declined, leading to an overall rise in total coke production. - Last week, the molten iron output decreased slightly on a weekly basis. With the support of non - five major steel products demand, the seasonal decline of molten iron output is expected to be limited and may remain at a high level, which will support the futures market. - Coke enterprise inventory has decreased, steel mill inventory has declined, port inventory has increased on a weekly basis, and the total coke inventory has decreased. - Currently, market sentiment has cooled, and the futures market has returned to the industrial logic. With the sixth round of price increase, coke enterprise profits have recovered significantly, and coke production has slightly increased. The high molten iron output and non - five major steel products demand are expected to limit the decline of molten iron output. Given the relatively high current steel mill inventory level, the subsequent restocking willingness is expected to decline. The coking coal cost has a significant impact on coke, and there are still fluctuations at the coal mine end. A bullish and volatile approach is recommended. The operating range of the coke index is expected to be between 1630 - 1790 [5]. Coking Coal - Affected by over - production inspections, coal mine production has significantly declined. The subsequent military parade on September 3 is expected to further reduce coal mine production. The daily customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port has recovered to over 100,000 tons. - Coke production has increased on a weekly basis but remains at a low level compared to previous years, providing limited support for coking coal demand. - After a period of restocking, the current restocking willingness of downstream enterprises has weakened, and the pace of coal mine inventory reduction has significantly slowed down. Last week, coke enterprises reduced inventory, steel mills restocked, and ports reduced inventory. The total coking coal inventory has decreased. - Under the influence of over - production inspections, coal mine production has significantly contracted. Coupled with the upcoming military parade on September 3, coal mine production may continue to be affected. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal remains at a high level. Coke production is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, providing limited support for coking coal demand. The restocking intensity of coking coal downstream has slowed down, and coal mine inventory has slightly decreased. Currently, coking coal supply has contracted while the demand side still has support, with a relatively good fundamental situation. A bullish and volatile view is taken, and the operating range of the coking coal index is expected to be between 1120 - 1290 [6]. Summary by Directory Coke Supply - The sixth round of coke price increase has started, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Coke enterprise profits have significantly improved, coke production from coke enterprises has increased, while that from steel mills has declined, leading to an overall rise in total coke production. As of August 8, the daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants was 65.1 tons (+0.29), that of 247 steel mill coking plants was 46.8 tons (-0.17), and the total output of all - sample coke enterprises and 247 steel mills was 111.9 tons (+0.12) [5][15]. Profit - The sixth round of price increase has started, and coke enterprise profits have significantly improved. As of August 8, the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises was - 16 yuan/ton (+29) [17][19]. Demand - Last week, the molten iron output decreased slightly on a weekly basis. With the support of non - five major steel products demand, the seasonal decline of molten iron output is expected to be limited and may remain at a high level, which will support the futures market. As of August 8, the daily average molten iron output was 240.32 tons (-0.39); the weekly total output of five major steel products was 869.21 tons (+1.79); the steel mill profitability rate was 68.4% (+3.03); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.09% (-0.15); the blast furnace operation rate was 83.75% (+0.29) [21][23]. Inventory - Coke enterprise inventory has decreased, steel mill inventory has declined, port inventory has increased on a weekly basis, and the total coke inventory has decreased. As of August 8, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 69.73 tons (-3.89); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 619.28 tons (-7.41); the total coke inventory of four major ports was 218.15 tons (+3.05); the total coke inventory was 907.16 tons (-8.25) [25][27]. Inventory Available Days - The inventory available days of 247 steel mill sample coking plants was 10.91 days (-0.26) [31]. Basis - As of August 8, the basis of the coke 01 contract was - 151, the basis of the 05 contract was - 234, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 70. Currently, the basis has no obvious driving effect on the futures market [34]. Calendar Spread - As of August 8, the 9 - 1 contract spread was - 80.5, and the 1 - 5 contract spread was - 83. There are currently no calendar spread opportunities [38]. Coking Coal Supply - Affected by over - production inspections, coal mine production has significantly declined. The subsequent military parade on September 3 is expected to further reduce coal mine production. The daily customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port has recovered to over 100,000 tons. As of August 8, the daily average output of 523 sample mines was 188.27 tons (-5.29), with an operation rate of 83.89% (-2.42); the daily average output of coal washing plants was 52.14 tons (-0.01), with an operation rate of 61.51% (-0.8) [42][44]. Demand - Coke production has increased on a weekly basis but remains at a low level compared to previous years, providing limited support for coking coal demand. As of August 8, the total inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 832.75 tons (-11.31), with available days of 12.04 days (-0.21), corresponding to a daily coking coal consumption of 69.17 tons (+0.26); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 808.66 tons (+4.87), with available days of 12.99 days (+0.12), and the converted daily consumption was 62.25 tons (-0.2); the total daily consumption was 131.42 tons (+0.06) [49][51]. Washery Inventory - As of August 8, the raw coal inventory of coal washing plants was 277.1 tons (-15.43); the clean coal inventory was 166.38 tons (-9.23) [53][55]. Inventory - After a period of restocking, the current restocking willingness of downstream enterprises has weakened, and the pace of coal mine inventory reduction has significantly slowed down. Last week, coke enterprises reduced inventory, steel mills restocked, and ports reduced inventory. The total coking coal inventory has decreased. As of August 8, the port inventory was 277.34 tons (-4.77); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 808.66 tons (+4.87); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 987.92 tons (-4.81); the clean coal inventory of 532 sample mines was 245.66 tons (-2.6); the total coking coal inventory was 2319.58 tons (-7.31). The available days of coking coal for 230 independent coking plants were 12.04 days (-0.21); the available days of coking coal inventory for 247 steel enterprises were 12.99 days (+0.12) [57][62]. Basis - As of August 8, the basis of the coking coal 01 contract was - 220, the basis of the 05 contract was - 259, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 62. Currently, the basis has a downward driving effect on the futures market [67]. Calendar Spread - As of August 8, the 9 - 1 contract spread was - 157.5, and the 1 - 5 contract spread was - 39. There are currently no calendar spread opportunities [71].

Group 1 - The market sentiment is fluctuating, with coking coal futures declining again, hovering around the 10-day moving average, and once dropping over 4% to 1099 yuan [1] - Coking coal prices are stabilizing as coking enterprises are cautious about high-priced coal procurement due to profit considerations, leading to a mixed performance in auction prices [1] - The overall operating rate of 110 washing plants across the country has decreased by 0.8% to 61.51%, with daily output down by 0.01 million tons to 52.14 million tons [1] Group 2 - Hualian Futures expects a strong short-term coking coal market, predicting a rebound followed by a stable oscillation, with coal mine operating rates continuing to rise and daily output increasing [2] - The demand for coking coal is supported by strong steel production, with the fourth round of price increases for coking coal already implemented and expectations for a fifth round [2] - Nanhua Futures notes that the recovery of domestic coal mines is slow, but the demand for coking coal is being boosted by speculative trading and essential procurement [3] Group 3 - Zijin Tianfeng Futures indicates that the supply and demand for coking coal remain tight, with recent market sentiment showing significant fluctuations, making it prone to corrections after rapid increases [4] - The recovery of domestic coal supply is slower than expected, while the import of Mongolian coal has resumed quickly after the Nadam Festival [4] - The overall supply-demand balance for coking coal is tight, with upstream inventories continuing to transfer to downstream, indicating a smooth coal mine shipment process [4]

Group 1 - Coking coal and coke prices have been experiencing a rebound since June, with the current increase viewed as a corrective rebound rather than a trend reversal [1][2] - The rebound in coking coal prices occurred in two phases: the first phase was driven by a correction in basis, while the second phase was influenced by rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [1] - The current inventory levels indicate a significant increase in coal stockpiles, with national raw coal inventory rising to 6.8489 million tons, a 105% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Iron and steel production remains high, but typically sees a seasonal decline in June and July, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream steel companies [2] - As of June 13, coking coal inventories at steel mills increased slightly, while coke inventories at coking enterprises decreased, indicating a mixed inventory situation [2] - Despite a slight decrease in supply due to environmental inspections, the overall supply situation remains stable, and any potential changes in supply are expected to be temporary [2][3] Group 3 - Coke prices have stabilized after a third round of price reductions, but steel mills are cautious in their raw material purchases, leading to a continuous accumulation of inventory [3] - Current market conditions suggest that while coking coal prices may continue to face downward pressure, the high level of iron and steel production provides some support for coking prices [2][3]