每经编辑｜彭水萍 此前我们提示10年国债收益率在1.75%左右的配置价值，8月初债市如期迎来修复行情。然而修复进程 过半、10年利率回落到1.7%下方之后，近日债市出现回调。受股债跷跷板影响，8月11日10年利率大幅 上行3bp至1.7175%。 展望后市，目前基本面仍处于弱现实和反通缩的初始阶段，债市即便回调幅度亦有限。股市上涨对债市 的抽水效应在实践中对流动性的影响可控，居民端的投资风险偏好往往不会出现脉冲式的提高或者下 降。市场风险偏好的提升对债市的抑制，同样要回到基本面以及央行态度的落脚点。宏观上，近期全球 PMI共振走弱，需求环比下降。出口方面，集装箱高频数据在7月最后一周大幅走弱，7月出口同比相对 6月或将略有下降。8月9日公布的7月通胀数据中，PPI仍处于-3.6%的低位，指向国内需求仍然相对不 足。后续来看，总需求偏弱的现实环境下，资金不存在持续收紧的基础。 8月债券叙事中，在诸多国际不确定性事件落地之前，债市或将维持震荡。考虑到美联储有概率于9月重 启降息，国内弱需求叠加全球普遍回归降息通道，下半年双降预期或升温。策略上，可以逢超调布局， 适当放宽久期限制。推荐关注10年国债收益率1.75% ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a general rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3647.55 points, up 0.34%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 11291.43 points, up 1.46% [1] - The total trading volume reached 751.3 billion yuan for Shanghai and 1075.6 billion yuan for Shenzhen, with both indices hitting new highs for the year [1] - Margin financing in the A-share market has surpassed 2 trillion yuan for the first time in ten years, indicating increased market activity [1] Margin Financing and Market Dynamics - The current margin financing balance represents about 2.3% of the A-share market's total circulation value, which has increased to approximately 90 trillion yuan, suggesting room for growth [1] - The distribution of financing funds is more diversified compared to 2015, showing a preference for emerging industries and growth styles [1][2] Macroeconomic Context - Policies implemented since September 2022 have stabilized market expectations and improved investor risk appetite [2] - The current A-share market capitalization to M2 ratio is around 32%, indicating potential for further inflow of resident funds [2] Sector Performance - The lithium sector saw a significant surge due to supply concerns following the suspension of operations at a key lithium mine [6] - The demand for new energy vehicles is expected to increase, supporting prices in the lithium market [6] Copper Market Insights - Copper prices are maintaining a high level, with LME copper priced at approximately 9750 USD per ton [7] - Supply constraints are exacerbated by incidents in Chile and insufficient capital expenditure from global mining companies [7] - The demand for copper is expected to grow, particularly driven by AI-related electricity needs in the U.S. [7] Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider ETFs related to the brokerage sector and lithium mining, as well as copper-related investments due to favorable market conditions [2][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) ratings for treasury bonds are all "Oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term bullish on the bond market, with both long and short opportunities coexisting next week. Before the double - cut expectation is falsified, the market is in a long - position market, but due to limited odds for going long and disturbances from factors like trade negotiations and funds, the market may weaken slightly at times. Next week, the market may face downward pressure in the first half of the week, and it's feasible to lay out short - term short positions at high prices at the beginning of the week. After the market weakens, short - term long positions can be laid out at low prices [2][17] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From April 7th to April 13th, treasury bond futures rose significantly. Influenced by trade conflicts on Monday, global risk appetite dropped sharply, and treasury bond futures rose significantly. On Tuesday, due to increased exchange - rate depreciation pressure, unchanged tight liquidity, and rising stocks, treasury bond futures corrected. On Wednesday, with the increasing expectation of loose monetary policy and marginal easing of liquidity, treasury bond futures rose, but long - term bonds performed relatively weakly as the stock market fluctuated upward. On Thursday, as the US postponed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, the market's concern about tariff threats decreased, risk appetite was strong, long - term varieties performed weakly, but short - term varieties performed strongly as liquidity eased marginally, and the yield curve steepened. On Friday, treasury bond futures opened higher due to loose morning liquidity but weakened at noon as the market expected trade - conflict mitigation. Throughout the day, short - term bonds performed better than long - term bonds. As of April 11th, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.656, 106.410, 108.985, and 119.660 yuan respectively, up 0.112, 0.295, 0.410, and 0.980 yuan from the previous weekend [1][14] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - Long - term bullish on the bond market, with both long and short opportunities coexisting next week. As the US has exempted some products from tariffs and economic indicators in March are expected to be good, the market may face downward pressure in the first half of the week. It's advisable to lay out short - term short positions at high prices at the beginning of the week. As the necessity of a reserve - requirement ratio cut increases, short - term long positions can be laid out at low prices after the market weakens. Strategies include: holding long positions for allocation - type investors; paying attention to the strategy of steepening the curve when it flattens; and considering the cash - and - carry strategy for short - term TS and TF main contracts with relatively high IRR, and the strategy of increasing the TS basis if liquidity eases gradually [2][17][21] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 55 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 690.101 billion yuan and a net financing of - 180.55 billion yuan, down 9.777 billion yuan and 659.777 billion yuan respectively from last week. 28 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 201.941 billion yuan and a net financing of 163.9 billion yuan, up 1.4203 billion yuan and down 0.2377 billion yuan respectively from last week. 499 negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) were issued, with a total issuance volume of 682.73 billion yuan and a net financing of 125.66 billion yuan, up 410.72 billion yuan and 125.66 billion yuan respectively from last week [20] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields declined. As of April 11th, the yields to maturity of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.49%, 1.66%, and 1.86% respectively, down 8.50, 6.68, 6.48, and 4.75 basis points from the previous weekend. The spreads between 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y treasury bonds widened by 1.15, 0.2, and 1.73 basis points to 25.54, 16.18, and 20.72 basis points respectively. The yields to maturity of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.56%, 1.56%, and 1.70% respectively, down 3.53, 4.50, and 3.35 basis points from the previous weekend [24] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures rose significantly. As of April 11th, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.656, 106.410, 108.985, and 119.660 yuan respectively, up 0.112, 0.295, 0.410, and 0.980 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 50,609, 72,966, 93,058, and 145,409 lots respectively, up 8,652, 20,675, 19,549, and 22,489 lots from the previous weekend. The open interests were 132,087, 194,613, 207,546, and 116,922 lots respectively, up 15,901, 23,643, 11,057, and down 2,582 lots from the previous weekend [33][37] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - The cash - and - carry strategy for short - term varieties is recommended. The IRR of short - term varieties has been running high. After the marginal easing of liquidity at the end of Q1, the cost - effectiveness of the cash - and - carry strategy has become prominent. There are stable cash - and - carry opportunities for short - term varieties because although liquidity has eased marginally, the negative carry problem still exists, and the basis center is difficult to rise. Also, the core trading logic in the market is the expectation of loose monetary policy. Once the easing policy is implemented, short - term varieties have a large room for catch - up growth. Since April, the net basis of TS has been compressing [42] 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of April 11th, the inter - delivery spreads between the 2506 - 2509 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.154, - 0.195, - 0.060, and - 0.100 yuan respectively, down 0.086, 0.180, 0.035, and 0.020 yuan from the previous weekend [46] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank conducted 474.2 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations in the open market. With 763.4 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases maturing, there was a net monetary withdrawal of 289.2 billion yuan. Next week, 474.2 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases will mature, and 100 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Tuesday. As of April 11th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.70%, 1.65%, 1.61%, and 1.62% respectively, down 4.14, 4.47, 0.80, and 7.00 basis points from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged - repurchase this week was 6.71 trillion yuan, 628.5 billion yuan more than last week. The overnight proportion was 86.01%, slightly lower than last week [52][56][58] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds rose significantly. As of April 11th, the US dollar index fell 3.06% to 99.7690 from the previous weekend. The yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.48%, up 47 basis points from the previous weekend. The spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 282.5 basis points. Due to intensifying trade conflicts, the US dollar index weakened. With rising inflation expectations, the Fed not releasing positive signals, and some investors selling US treasury bonds, the yield of US treasury bonds rose rapidly [61] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices and agricultural product prices both declined this week. As of April 11th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy - Chemical Index were 3,501.54, 6,084.77, and 1,646.77 points respectively, down 226.04, 270.68, and 123.44 points from the previous weekend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.84, 4.84, and 7.41 yuan/kg respectively, down 0.07, 0.03, and 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous weekend [64] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - Allocation - type investors can continue to hold long positions and wait for the implementation of easing policies. There are both long and short trading opportunities next week [65]