中国"商业航天第一股"要来了？ 2025年12月31日，据上交所官网显示，蓝箭航天空间科技股份有限公司（以下简称"蓝箭航天"）科创板IPO审核状态变更为"已受理"，保荐机构为 中金公司，拟募资75亿元。此时距蓝箭航天7月29日获得辅导备案受理耗时155天。 | 公司全称 | 蓝箭航天空间科技股份有限公司 | 受理日期 | 2025-12-31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司简称 | 蓝箭航天 | 融资金额(亿元) | 75.00 | | 审核状态 | 已受理 | 更新日期 | 2025-12-31 | | 保荐机构 | 中国国际金融股份有限公司 | 保存代表人 | 田加力,倪佳伟 | | 会计师事务所 | 立信会计师事务所 (特殊普通合伙) | 签字会计师 | 安行,李晓婷 | | 律师事务所 | 上海市锦天城律师事务所 | 签字律师 | 王朝,秦永强,胡艺俊 | | 评估机构 | 北京中同华资产评估有限公司 | 签字评估师 | 赵玉玲,徐兴宾 | 蓝箭航天在招股书（申报稿）中表示，公司IPO是为积极响应国家战略规划与迫切的市场需求、保持技术领先与核心竞争力优势，以及提升公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for China's commercial space industry, transitioning from technological accumulation to explosive growth, with multiple private aerospace companies completing rocket launch tests and accelerating satellite internet deployment [1] Group 1: Industry Developments - The Chinese government is providing strong support for commercial space through policies, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing the construction of a "space power" and the establishment of a dedicated Commercial Space Administration [1] - Despite a promising outlook, the industry faces significant supply chain challenges, particularly in upstream infrastructure, with a consensus that the bottleneck is not in downstream applications but in launch capacity and costs [1] - The recent successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket and the upcoming maiden flight of the Long March 12甲 rocket are seen as significant milestones for China's commercial space sector, potentially reshaping market dynamics [3][4] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The Zhuque-3 rocket, developed by Blue Arrow Aerospace, is a new generation of low-cost, high-capacity, reusable rocket, utilizing a self-developed liquid oxygen-methane engine [3][7] - The Long March 12甲 rocket, developed by China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, emphasizes a stable supply chain by using a liquid oxygen-kerosene engine, reflecting a dual risk approach in China's aerospace strategy [8] - The ultimate goal of reusable rocket technology is to significantly reduce launch costs, with the Zhuque-3 aiming to lower the cost per kilogram to below 20,000 RMB, enhancing China's competitive edge in the global market [9][10] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Predictions indicate that within three years, launch prices in China could approach those of SpaceX, with the potential to undercut SpaceX's Falcon 9 prices in about five years [11] - The competitive focus in the coming years will center on cost control, reliability, fulfillment capabilities, and service responsiveness, as companies strive to meet the growing demand for satellite deployment [11] - The challenges faced by Chinese rocket companies include not only technological hurdles but also the need for systematic engineering and industrialization to catch up with established players like SpaceX [11]

Core Insights - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for China's commercial space industry, transitioning from technological accumulation to explosive growth, with multiple private aerospace companies completing rocket launch tests and accelerating satellite internet deployment [1][11] - Policy support is intensifying, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing the construction of a "space power," and the establishment of a dedicated Commercial Space Administration by the National Space Administration [1][11] - Despite a promising outlook, supply chain weaknesses remain evident, particularly in upstream infrastructure, which is seen as a critical bottleneck for the industry [1][11] Industry Developments - December marked significant advancements in China's reusable rocket technology, highlighted by the launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket, which, despite a recovery failure, provided valuable experience for future developments [2][12] - The Zhuque-3 rocket, developed by Blue Arrow Aerospace, is a new generation of low-cost, high-capacity, reusable liquid oxygen-methane rocket, showcasing advanced features such as a reaction control system and landing legs [2][12] - Following Zhuque-3, the Long March 12甲 rocket, developed by China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, is set for its maiden flight, indicating a rapid progression in China's commercial space capabilities [2][12][13] Market Dynamics - Currently, only the United States has mastered reusable rocket technology, with SpaceX leading the way, having completed over 500 launches and capturing 86% of the global orbital payload market in 2023 [3][13] - In contrast, China's commercial launch capacity remains limited, with a market share in commercial payloads only in the single digits, insufficient to support the ambitious deployment of satellite constellations [3][14] - The urgency for breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology is underscored by the need to address the significant launch capacity gap in the market [4][15] Technological Innovations - The Zhuque-3 rocket's development process emphasized a unique engineering approach, integrating market demand insights and innovative materials like stainless steel to reduce production cycles [6][16] - The Long March 12甲 rocket adopts a different strategy, focusing on stable supply chains and leveraging domestic resources to ensure reliable operations [7][17] - The Tianlong-3 rocket, set for its first flight, aims for high reliability and low-cost delivery, utilizing advanced materials and 3D printing technology [7][17] Cost Reduction Strategies - The ultimate goal of reusable rocket technology is to significantly lower launch costs, with a focus on recovering the first stage of rockets, which constitutes the highest cost component [8][19] - The Zhuque-3 is designed for 20 reuses, with operational costs expected to decrease by approximately 45% after five uses, reflecting a model of high initial investment followed by diminishing marginal costs [8][19] - The target cost for launching per kilogram is set below 20,000 RMB, which would enhance China's competitive edge in the global market [20] Competitive Landscape - The future competition in the rocket market will center on cost control, reliability, fulfillment capabilities, and service responsiveness [10][20] - Chinese companies face significant challenges in catching up with established players like SpaceX, which has spent over a decade refining its technology [10][21] - The ongoing developments in China's commercial space sector indicate a gradual resolution of previously deemed insurmountable challenges, as companies continue to innovate and validate their technologies [21]

Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant activity, driven by the successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket, which is expected to accelerate the development of satellite internet and commercial space initiatives in China [2][6][10]. Group 1: Market Activity - On December 4, commercial aerospace stocks saw a collective surge, with over 10 stocks, including China Satellite and Haichang New Materials, hitting the daily limit or rising over 10% [2][4]. - Notable stocks included Longzhou Co., Huarui Co., and others, with some stocks like Feiwo Technology and Zhaobiao Co. seeing increases of nearly 20% and 18%, respectively [4]. Group 2: Zhuque-3 Rocket Launch - The Zhuque-3 rocket successfully completed its flight mission on December 3, entering the designated orbit, although it did not achieve the planned recovery of the first stage [6][9]. - This launch marked several domestic firsts, including the first orbital flight of a reusable liquid oxygen-methane rocket and the integration of a nine-engine parallel liquid oxygen-methane propulsion system [6][9]. Group 3: Industry Development Outlook - Analysts predict that the successful launch of Zhuque-3 will accelerate the progress of the Tianfan satellite constellation network, with expectations for rapid development in China's commercial aerospace sector [7][10]. - The commercial aerospace industry is expected to see a compound annual growth rate of 82% in rocket capacity and 95% in satellite manufacturing over the next five years, driven by the demand for low-orbit satellite constellations [10]. Group 4: Policy Support - The Chinese government is increasingly supporting the commercial aerospace sector, with initiatives included in the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the importance of building a strong aerospace industry [10][11]. - The establishment of a commercial aerospace department by the National Space Administration indicates a commitment to integrating commercial aerospace into the national development framework [10].

Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace concept stocks are experiencing significant activity, driven by the successful launch of the Zhuque-3 reusable rocket, which is expected to accelerate the development of China's commercial space industry [1][9]. Group 1: Stock Market Activity - On December 4, multiple commercial aerospace stocks surged, with over ten stocks, including China Satellite and Haichang New Materials, hitting the daily limit or rising over 10% [1][3]. - Notable stocks included Longzhou Co., Huarun Co., and others, with some stocks like Feiwo Technology and Zhaobiao Co. seeing increases of nearly 20% and 18%, respectively [3]. Group 2: Zhuque-3 Rocket Launch - The Zhuque-3 rocket successfully completed its mission on December 3, entering the designated orbit, although it did not achieve the goal of recovering the first stage [5][6]. - This launch marked several domestic firsts, including the first orbital flight of a reusable liquid oxygen-methane rocket and the first application of a nine-engine parallel liquid oxygen-methane propulsion system [5][9]. Group 3: Industry Development Outlook - Analysts believe that the successful launch of Zhuque-3 will lead to rapid advancements in China's commercial aerospace sector, with expectations for significant cost reductions in satellite launches by 2028 [9][10]. - The satellite internet industry is projected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of over 80% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a potential market for rocket capacity and satellite manufacturing reaching 1.011 trillion yuan and 2.074 trillion yuan, respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the defense and military industry [4]. Core Insights - On December 3, the Zhuque-3 rocket successfully entered orbit, marking a significant breakthrough in China's commercial aerospace sector with its reusable liquid oxygen-methane launch vehicle technology. Although the first stage recovery did not achieve a soft landing due to abnormal combustion, the entire testing, launch, and flight process was validated, providing valuable engineering data [1][2][10]. - The Zhuque-3 rocket has a near-Earth orbit capacity of 18 tons and a reuse potential of over 20 times, specifically designed for large satellite constellations like Qianfan. By 2025, China's commercial aerospace is expected to enter a phase of large-scale deployment, with over a hundred satellites in orbit for both GW and Qianfan constellations [2][12]. - The successful launch of Zhuque-3 is anticipated to lead to a new phase of high-frequency launches starting in 2026, creating investment opportunities in the low Earth orbit satellite internet and rocket launch industry [2][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Zhuque-3 rocket represents China's first reusable launch vehicle to achieve orbital flight, and it is the third reusable rocket globally, following SpaceX's Falcon series and Blue Origin's New Glenn [10][11]. - The rocket's design includes a two-stage configuration with a diameter of 4.5 meters and a total length of 66.1 meters, capable of vertical return and recovery after launch [11]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the importance of the Zhuque-3's success in addressing the current bottlenecks in China's commercial aerospace industry, particularly in satellite constellation deployment and cost-effective launch options [10][12]. - The establishment of a dedicated Commercial Aerospace Department by the National Space Administration is expected to enhance regulatory efficiency and support the high-quality development of the commercial aerospace sector [12][13]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on upstream and midstream segments of the satellite industry and rocket launch supply chain, including satellite manufacturing, components, and ground equipment [3][12]. - Key companies to watch include aerospace electronics firms, component manufacturers, and those involved in 3D printing and composite materials [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [6] Core Insights - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket is expected to accelerate the development of commercial aerospace in China, with 2027-2028 projected as a pivotal year for the industry [2][10] - The Zhuque-3 rocket, designed for large constellation networking tasks, demonstrates significant capabilities including a reusable design and a payload capacity of no less than 18 tons for near-Earth orbit [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring capital expenditure changes among downstream operators, as well as focusing on the related industrial chains of Shanghai Yuanxin and Zhuque-3 [2][10] Summary by Sections Event Description - On December 3, 2025, the Zhuque-3 rocket successfully completed its flight mission, marking a significant milestone in China's commercial aerospace efforts [4] Event Commentary - The Zhuque-3 rocket is a new generation of low-cost, high-capacity, and reusable launch vehicle, which is expected to support major national aerospace projects and satellite internet deployment [10] - The report highlights the stable and reliable performance of the rocket during its flight, although there was an issue with the vertical recovery attempt of the first stage [10] - The rapid development of commercial aerospace in China is anticipated, with a focus on the advancements in large thrust reusable rockets by private enterprises and research institutions [10]

Core Viewpoint - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket marks a significant milestone in China's commercial space sector, despite the failure of the first-stage recovery test, highlighting the ongoing advancements in reusable rocket technology [1][3][8] Group 1: Rocket Specifications and Features - Zhuque-3 is a new generation of low-cost, high-capacity, high-frequency, reusable liquid oxygen-methane launch vehicle developed by Blue Arrow Aerospace [1][5] - The rocket features a two-stage design with a diameter of 4.5 meters and a total length of 66.1 meters, utilizing the Tianque series liquid oxygen-methane engines [1][5] - The first stage is equipped with a reaction control system, grid fins, and landing legs for vertical return and reuse after orbital launch [1][5] Group 2: Launch and Recovery Test - The mission included a first-stage recovery verification, which encountered an abnormal combustion issue, resulting in a failure to achieve a soft landing [3] - Despite the recovery failure, the mission validated the overall design and operational plans of the Zhuque-3, providing critical engineering data for future launches and recovery efforts [3][6] Group 3: Market Reaction and Industry Impact - The launch generated significant interest in the capital markets, with stocks in the commercial space sector experiencing notable gains, including Shanghai Hanyun and Zhaobiao Co., which hit their daily limit [6] - The successful recovery of the Zhuque-3 would position China as the second country globally, after the United States, to master reusable rocket technology, enhancing Blue Arrow Aerospace's status in the industry [8] Group 4: Notable Achievements - The Zhuque-3's maiden flight achieved five "domestic firsts," including the first orbital flight of a new reusable liquid oxygen-methane launch vehicle and the first application of a nine-engine parallel liquid oxygen-methane propulsion system [5] - The rocket's design incorporates high-strength stainless steel and advanced laser welding techniques, marking significant advancements in manufacturing processes for space vehicles [5][8]

Group 1 - The Zhuque-3 rocket successfully completed its flight mission, although the recovery of the first stage was unsuccessful due to an anomaly during landing [1] - Zhuque-3 is a new generation of low-cost, high-capacity, reusable liquid oxygen-methane launch vehicle developed by Landspace, designed for large satellite constellation deployment [1][2] - The rocket's first stage is designed for vertical soft landing and aims for at least 20 reuse cycles, with a near-Earth orbit payload capacity of no less than 18 tons [1][2] Group 2 - The launch validated the entire testing, launch, and flight process of the Zhuque-3 rocket, providing critical engineering data for future optimization and reliability improvements [2] - Landspace is one of the first private rocket companies in China to obtain full industry access for commercial spaceflight and has initiated an IPO on the STAR Market [2] - The company has raised significant funding, including a record single-round investment of 900 million yuan from the National Manufacturing Transformation and Upgrade Fund [2] Group 3 - The Zhuque-3 launch achieved several domestic firsts, including the first successful orbital flight of a reusable liquid oxygen-methane rocket and high-precision return navigation and control technology verification [3] - The commercial space industry in China is still in the experimental validation stage for reusable technology, with multiple hurdles to overcome before commercialization [3] - As demand for rocket launches increases with the peak of low Earth orbit satellite constellation deployment, the commercial space transportation capacity in China is rapidly advancing towards scalability and systematization [3]

Core Points - The Zhuque-3 Yao-1 rocket successfully completed its flight mission on December 3, 2023, despite a failure in the recovery of the first stage [1] - Zhuque-3 is a new generation of low-cost, high-capacity, high-frequency, reusable liquid oxygen-methane launch vehicle developed by Landspace [1] Group 1: Rocket Specifications - Zhuque-3 features a two-stage design with a diameter of 4.5 meters for both stages and a fairing diameter of 5.2 meters, with a total length of 66.1 meters [1] - The propulsion system is based on Landspace's self-developed Tianque series liquid oxygen-methane engines [1] Group 2: Recovery and Testing - The first stage of the rocket was equipped with a reaction control system, grid fins, and landing legs for vertical return and reuse after orbital launch [1] - Although the recovery test was unsuccessful due to abnormal combustion, the mission validated the overall testing, launch, and flight process of the Zhuque-3 rocket [1] Group 3: Future Plans - The development team will conduct a comprehensive review of the test process and work to identify the cause of the failure, aiming to optimize the recovery plan for future missions [1]