商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 5 日 LLDPE：中期震荡行情 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2601 | 7225 | -0.51% | 235,618 | 12101 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 01合约基差 | -115 | | -97 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | 5 | | 7 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 7110 | | 7150 | | | | 华东 | 7170 | | 7220 | | | | 华南 | 7350 | | 7380 | | PE 需求持续好转，主要因农膜行业要逐渐开始旺季备货，支撑 PE 价格。不过近几日，商品情绪明显回 落，导致期货走势偏弱。供应端，9 月检修量和 8 月份 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Recent volatility in commodity markets has led to significant price corrections, with futures for coking coal, glass, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate experiencing declines of 12%, 12%, and 4% respectively since July 28 [1][2] - The rapid increase in commodity prices was driven by speculative trading, but recent risk control measures from exchanges have cooled market sentiment, resulting in profit-taking and a reduction in open positions [1][2] Group 2: Coking Coal Market Dynamics - Coking coal prices surged significantly, with domestic Shanxi region prices increasing by 80-150 CNY/ton last week, and a cumulative increase of over 400 CNY/ton since late June [3] - Following the price correction on July 28, the market saw a decline in coking coal prices, with Mongolian 5 coking coal dropping from 1050 CNY/ton to around 960-1000 CNY/ton [3] - The overall inventory of coking coal is shifting from mines to downstream users, with a decrease in mine inventories and an increase in inventories at downstream coking plants and steel mills [3][4] Group 3: Polysilicon Market Insights - Polysilicon futures prices increased by 75% from June 25 to July 24, but the market is now experiencing a cooling period as speculative trading diminishes [6][7] - Despite the rise in prices, the fundamental supply-demand situation has not improved significantly, with production expected to reach 110,000 tons in July, a 10% increase month-on-month [7] - The market is currently characterized by a contradiction between strong policy expectations and weak real demand, leading to a cautious outlook for future price movements [8] Group 4: Glass Market Trends - Glass futures prices rose by 39.8% from early July to the peak, driven by market sentiment and industry self-regulation, but have since faced a significant downturn [9][10] - The demand for glass is expected to decline due to cyclical factors in the real estate sector, although the pace of decline may slow in the latter half of the year [10][11] - The overall inventory levels are decreasing as manufacturers engage in destocking, but the sustainability of demand remains uncertain [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - PX: Unilateral weakness, strong monthly spread, hold long PX and short PTA, focus on PX - MX spread regression, maintain long PX and short naphtha/PTA due to tight supply - demand [4] - PTA: Unilateral weakness, hold PTA processing fee compression positions, mid - term monthly spread is to buy on dips, de - stocking pattern in June - July, monthly spread remains strong [5] - MEG: Limited upside for unilateral price, long PTA and short MEG, short - term monthly spread is strong but not recommended to chase higher [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: On May 26, 2025, PX closed at 6674, PTA at 4724, MEG at 4393, PF at 6430, and SC at 3530. Daily changes were 0.3%, 0.2%, - 0.2%, - 0.3%, and 0.6% respectively [1] - **Monthly Spread**: On May 26, 2025, PX (9 - 1) was 188, PTA (9 - 1) was 146, MEG (9 - 1) was 60, PF(7 - 8) was 10, and PX - EB07 was - 355. Daily changes were 4, - 2, 8, - 2, and 162 respectively [1] - **Inter - variety Spread**: On May 26, 2025, PTA09 - 0.65PX09 was 386, PTA09 - MEG09 was 331, PTA07 - PF07 was - 1604, PF07盘面加工费 was 811, and PTA09 - LU09 was 1293. Daily changes were - 6, 18, 34, - 35, and - 18 respectively [1] - **Basis**: On May 26, 2025, PX basis was 231, PTA basis was 165, MEG basis was 135, PF basis was - 40, and PX - naphtha spread was 268. Daily changes were 33, 15, 10, - 90, and 2 respectively [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: On May 26, 2025, PTA warehouse receipts were 56308, ethylene glycol were 10630, short - fiber were 0, PX were 0, and SC were 4029000. Daily changes were - 258, - 20, - 1109 respectively [1] Market Overview - **PX**: A 700,000 - ton PX unit in the Northeast is restarting, a 9 - million - ton PX unit of a major factory in East China is expected to resume soon, PX price rose, and the valuation on May 26 was 834 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars from last Friday [3] - **PTA**: A 50,000 - ton IPA unit in North China is under maintenance, a 1 - million - ton PTA unit in Southwest China has restarted [3] - **MEG**: A 1 - million - ton/year EO - EG co - production unit in East China has restarted, a 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol unit in Anhui has reduced load, a 150,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol unit in East China stopped, and a 300,000 - ton/year unit in Guizhou is restarting [3][4] - **Polyester**: A 200,000 - ton polyester unit in Wujiang is restarting, a 200,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip unit in East China is under maintenance, Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak with an average sales rate of about 30%, and direct - spun polyester staple fiber sales were also weak with an average sales rate of 45% [4] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1, PTA trend intensity: - 1, MEG trend intensity: - 1 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PX**: Short - term is relatively strong, but the medium - term trend is weak. PXN valuation is at a low level, and it is advisable to go long on dips. Future supply and demand will both increase, overseas device operating rates are falling, and PX processing fees have shrunk significantly [6][7]. - **PTA**: Short - term rebound is strong, but the medium - term is still weak. It is recommended to short on rallies unilaterally. Do basis and calendar spread reverse arbitrage. Take profit on the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Conduct a hedging operation of going long on PR and short on PTA [8]. - **MEG**: The impact of tariffs on ethane cracking plants is gradually emerging. Go long on MEG and short on PTA for the 09 contract, and do 9 - 1 calendar spread positive arbitrage. The short - term is a rebound, and the medium - term trend is weak [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Price and Change**: On April 17, 2025, the PX main contract closed at 6034, up 1.8% daily; PTA closed at 4294, up 1.7%; MEG closed at 4113, unchanged; PF closed at 5946, up 1.0%; SC closed at 3441, up 3.4% [2]. - **Calendar Spread**: For PX (5 - 9), the value on April 17 was - 70; for PTA (5 - 9), it was - 28; for MEG (5 - 9), it was - 47; for PF(5 - 6), it was - 44; for PX - EB05, it was - 1403. The daily change of MEG (5 - 9) was - 13, and that of PF(5 - 6) was 18, and PX - EB05 was 25 [2]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: On April 17, PTA05 - 0.65PX05 was 360, PTA05 - MEG05 was 153, PTA05 - PF05 was - 1636, PF05's processing margin on the disk was 877, and PTA05 - LU05 was 739. The daily changes were 3, 71, - 4, 14, and - 105 respectively [2]. - **Basis and Other Spreads**: On April 17, the PX basis was 118, PTA basis was - 8, MEG basis was 56, PF basis was 164, and the PX - naphtha spread was 172. The daily changes were 39, 12, - 12, 22, and 3 respectively. The PTA warehouse receipts decreased by 1,963, and SC warehouse receipts decreased by 40,000 [2]. **Market Overview** - **PX**: On April 18, the PX price in the Chinese market was estimated at 738 - 740 USD/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; in the South Korean market, it was 718 - 720 USD/ton, also unchanged. South Korea's PX exports in March decreased by 1.75% month - on - month to 370,742 tons. Exports to China decreased by about 2.23% to 295,948 tons, and to Unv1 decreased by 25% to 34,282 tons. However, exports to the US increased by about 39% to 40,512 tons [4]. - **PTA**: On April 18, PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere weakened, the spot basis loosened slightly. The 4 - month goods were traded at 05 + 20~25, with the price negotiation range around 4290 - 4330. The mainstream spot basis on the 18th was 05 + 22 [5]. - **MEG**: The ethylene glycol load of a 100 - million - ton/year EO - EG co - production unit in East China decreased by about 20% recently and is expected to last for a long time. The restart time of a 36 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol unit in the US is still undetermined. On April 17, the MEG shipment from a mainstream warehouse in Zhangjiagang was about 6800 tons, and from two mainstream warehouses in Taicang was about 7400 tons [5]. - **Polyester**: A 25 - million - ton polyester film device in Zhejiang was put into production in mid - February, and the supporting film device was put into production in early April. A 30 - million - ton polyester bottle - chip device in the Southwest was restarted recently [5]. - **Polyester Yarn Sales**: On April 18, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased locally, with an average sales rate of about 90% by 4 pm. The sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber factories decreased moderately, with an average sales rate of 80% by 3 pm [6].