转自：新华财经 新华财经北京12月16日电 （吴郑思、郭洲洋）国内商品期货市场周二（12月16日）整体震荡走弱，因能化、基本金属等多数品种表现疲软。截至收盘，中 证商品期货价格指数收报1505.54点较前一交易日下跌4.24点，跌幅0.28%；中证商品期货指数收报2079.05点，较前一交易日下跌6.57点，跌幅0.32%。 铂族金属延续偏强，在前一交易日跟随铂上涨超4%之后，16日钯期货主力合约再涨超4%，接替铂成为商品市场领涨品种，并与铂携手刷新上市以来新高。 另外，多晶硅和碳酸锂继续震荡攀高，收盘双双涨超1%。化工板块走势分化，PVC、液化气反弹走高的同时，沥青、低硫燃料油等则跟随原油弱势下跌。 能化板块16日走势分化。在PVC等品种强势反弹的同时，沥青、低硫燃料油等与原油关系较为密切的化工品承压下挫。尤其沥青盘中低点一度逼近12月初创 下的年内新低，终盘收跌2.36%。在过剩预期下，国际油价跌势不止，削弱了沥青等油系化工品的成本支撑，而沥青本身又面临需求持续萎缩、厂家库存回 升的基本面，疲弱态势难改。虽然截至12月10日当周国内沥青炼厂产能利用率小幅下滑至29.9%，但即便在厂家低负荷生产的背景下，截 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report On Thursday (November 6), most domestic commodities rose, with industrial products and agricultural products generally showing an upward trend. However, there were also some commodities with declines, such as shipping futures and non - metallic building materials [1]. 3) Summary by Related Categories Commodity Market Performance - **Overall Performance**: Most domestic commodity futures closed higher on Thursday. Black commodities led the gains, with coking coal rising 2.38%. Chemical products mostly increased, with butadiene rubber up 2.18%. Precious metals all rose, with silver futures gaining 1.99%. New energy materials mostly climbed, with lithium carbonate up 1.95%. Oilseeds and fats mostly advanced, with soybeans up 1.69%. Base metals mostly increased, with aluminum futures rising 1.31%. Agricultural and sideline products mostly rose, with eggs up 0.91%. Energy products were mixed, with LPG up 0.42%. Shipping futures led the declines, with the container shipping index (European line) down 3.91%. Non - metallic building materials all fell, with glass down 0.45% [1]. - **Index Performance**: The comprehensive Guomao Commodity Index rose 0.65% to 2151.74; the Guomao Industrial Products Index increased 0.58% to 1590.62; the Guomao Agricultural Products Index rose 0.45% to 1358.24; the black commodity index increased 0.45% to 1717.77; the Guomao Energy and Chemical Index rose 0.33% to 578.85; the Guomao Oilseeds and Fats Index increased 0.53% to 2135.25 [1]. Market Analysis of Different Commodity Categories - **Black Commodities**: The trading logic of the black chain has returned to the off - season fundamentals. Along with the rebound of the stock market and raw material prices, steel futures prices also rose slightly, but overall remained in a low - level oscillation pattern. The inventory of the five major steel products decreased to 1503.57 tons this week, with the decline narrowing to 0.67%, but a 23.37% increase compared to the same period last year. Production decreased by 2.12% month - on - month, and apparent demand also dropped by 2.89% to 869,100 tons, reaching the lowest level in the same period in recent years. In general, the short - term macro - expectations have less influence, and the market sentiment is weak due to weak real - estate data and the cooling weather [1]. - **Base Metals**: For copper, the rebound of Shanghai copper was due to the improved macro - sentiment released by the stock - market rebound, and its medium - term upward trend remained unchanged, with the strength of the market depending on the recovery of positions. Regarding lithium carbonate, although there were rumors of accelerated resumption of production in Jiangxi lithium mines, which have not been officially confirmed, the market did not form a consensus on the future. After the impact of the news faded, lithium carbonate stabilized and rebounded, recovering previous losses. Future attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of the supply side and whether the fundamentals continue to destock [1]. - **Energy and Chemical Products**: The main contract of SC crude oil declined slightly for the third consecutive day on Thursday. In the future, the short - term market's sensitivity to geopolitics has slightly decreased, the macro - situation is temporarily stable, and international oil prices are dominated by fundamentals. This week, ELA inventories entered the seasonal accumulation period, and WTI oil prices fell below the $60 support. Due to the remaining supply surplus this year and no substantial improvement in the near - term fundamentals, oil prices are expected to remain under pressure this year [1]. - **Oilseeds and Fats**: The relaxation of US soybean tariffs provided positive support to the market. However, according to the calculation, the import cost of US soybeans is still higher than that of Brazilian soybeans. The increase in US soybean import costs drove the continued strength of double - meal futures. Future attention should be paid to China's actual procurement of US soybeans. The three major oils rebounded and closed higher. The short - covering of palm oil and rapeseed oil drove the price rebound. The market expects that the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in the MPOB October supply - demand report may continue to increase. However, the improvement in palm oil export demand and the entry into the seasonal production - reduction season in November provide support for the price. In the short term, the driving force in the oil market is limited, and the market is waiting for the MPOB report and changes in the biodiesel policy [1].

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on October 22 showed mixed results, with significant gains in asphalt, SC crude oil, and other contracts rising over 2% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1468.38 points, down 9.20 points or 0.62% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Oil and Related Products - Crude oil and related products saw a sudden increase, with asphalt leading the market with a 2.95% rise [2] - Despite ongoing supply surplus pressures, geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding the U.S. and Venezuela, have provided some support to oil prices [2][3] - The recent data indicates a 26.1% year-on-year increase in asphalt production, but a decrease in capacity utilization suggests easing supply pressure [3] Group 3: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a sharp decline, with gold and silver contracts dropping over 3% [4] - The volatility in the gold market has increased significantly, with a 10-day historical volatility reaching 43.4, indicating potential for further fluctuations [4] Group 4: Palm Oil and Other Oils - All three major oilseed products fell, with palm oil leading the decline at 1.69% [5] - The weakening of soybean oil in the overnight market has negatively impacted domestic oilseed prices, with expectations of reduced demand from India contributing to the decline [5]

Group 1 - The red date futures experienced a significant drop of nearly 5%, with other commodities like glass, copper, and short fibers also declining over 1% [1][4] - The market sentiment is affected by the ongoing debate regarding the potential reduction in the new season's red date production, with last year's high inventory levels adding pressure [3] - The upcoming high-temperature weather in southern Xinjiang is expected to impact red date yields, contributing to the volatility in futures trading [3] Group 2 - Styrene showed a slight increase of 0.71%, supported by rising coal prices and recovering demand for pure benzene, although the overall commodity market saw widespread declines [2] - The supply side for pure benzene is expected to increase, leading to a weaker price outlook, while the demand remains stable [2] - The recent strong performance of polysilicon is limited by a loose fundamental outlook, with expectations of policy impacts on supply costs in the medium to long term [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is showing signs of cooling, which may impact market dynamics for commodities like gold [1] - There is ongoing volatility in the gold market, with both bullish and bearish sentiments being observed [1] - The analysis will cover the current market trends for gold and other popular futures, providing insights into their fundamental aspects and future trajectories [1] Group 1 - The U.S. CPI has decreased, indicating a potential shift in economic conditions that could affect commodity prices [1] - Gold is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, reflecting uncertainty in the market [1] - The analysis will be conducted by a seasoned futures researcher, focusing on market conditions and fundamental factors influencing commodity prices [1]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On May 9, the domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results, with polysilicon futures rising over 5% and alumina futures increasing by over 3% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1352.13 points, down 1.82 points or 0.13% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Polysilicon Market Analysis - Polysilicon futures rebounded significantly after hitting a new low, with the main contract rising nearly 6% on May 9, driven by low registered warehouse receipts and concerns over delivery shortages [2] - The upstream and downstream industries of polysilicon are highly concentrated, with major companies currently operating at a loss, leading to weak willingness to produce below market prices [2] - Despite short-term volatility in the near-month contracts, the fundamental outlook for polysilicon remains weak, with expectations of further inventory accumulation in downstream silicon wafer markets [2] Group 3: Alumina Market Dynamics - Alumina prices continued to rise, closing up 3.06% and marking a "three consecutive days of gains," influenced by mining disruptions and capacity concerns [3] - News of Guinea's government potentially revoking mining licenses for EGA has positively impacted market sentiment, despite limited immediate effects on current production capacity [3] - The reduction in open interest during the rebound suggests that the sustainability and extent of the price increase may be limited [3] Group 4: Black Building Materials Performance - On May 9, black building materials experienced a decline, with coke futures dropping over 2% and other materials like glass and rebar also falling [4] - Steel mills showed a high operating rate of 84.62%, with a year-on-year increase in profitability, but market sentiment remains pessimistic due to weak terminal demand [4] - Expectations of peak iron water production amid declining demand and shrinking profits for steel mills contribute to the ongoing weakness in the black materials sector [4] Group 5: Glass Market Conditions - Despite a gradual supply contraction, glass inventories continued to rise, with a nearly 4% increase in total inventory as of May 8, exceeding market expectations [5] - The slow recovery in orders and operating rates for downstream processing enterprises limits significant support for glass prices [5] - The glass market may require more time to transition from weakness to strength, given the stable production levels and subdued demand [5]