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商品日报(7月4日):多晶硅涨势趋缓 红枣暴跌近5%
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-04 11:03
Group 1 - The red date futures experienced a significant drop of nearly 5%, with other commodities like glass, copper, and short fibers also declining over 1% [1][4] - The market sentiment is affected by the ongoing debate regarding the potential reduction in the new season's red date production, with last year's high inventory levels adding pressure [3] - The upcoming high-temperature weather in southern Xinjiang is expected to impact red date yields, contributing to the volatility in futures trading [3] Group 2 - Styrene showed a slight increase of 0.71%, supported by rising coal prices and recovering demand for pure benzene, although the overall commodity market saw widespread declines [2] - The supply side for pure benzene is expected to increase, leading to a weaker price outlook, while the demand remains stable [2] - The recent strong performance of polysilicon is limited by a loose fundamental outlook, with expectations of policy impacts on supply costs in the medium to long term [2]
商品日报(5月9日):多晶硅大幅反弹 黑色建材持续走弱
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 11:41
Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On May 9, the domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results, with polysilicon futures rising over 5% and alumina futures increasing by over 3% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1352.13 points, down 1.82 points or 0.13% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Polysilicon Market Analysis - Polysilicon futures rebounded significantly after hitting a new low, with the main contract rising nearly 6% on May 9, driven by low registered warehouse receipts and concerns over delivery shortages [2] - The upstream and downstream industries of polysilicon are highly concentrated, with major companies currently operating at a loss, leading to weak willingness to produce below market prices [2] - Despite short-term volatility in the near-month contracts, the fundamental outlook for polysilicon remains weak, with expectations of further inventory accumulation in downstream silicon wafer markets [2] Group 3: Alumina Market Dynamics - Alumina prices continued to rise, closing up 3.06% and marking a "three consecutive days of gains," influenced by mining disruptions and capacity concerns [3] - News of Guinea's government potentially revoking mining licenses for EGA has positively impacted market sentiment, despite limited immediate effects on current production capacity [3] - The reduction in open interest during the rebound suggests that the sustainability and extent of the price increase may be limited [3] Group 4: Black Building Materials Performance - On May 9, black building materials experienced a decline, with coke futures dropping over 2% and other materials like glass and rebar also falling [4] - Steel mills showed a high operating rate of 84.62%, with a year-on-year increase in profitability, but market sentiment remains pessimistic due to weak terminal demand [4] - Expectations of peak iron water production amid declining demand and shrinking profits for steel mills contribute to the ongoing weakness in the black materials sector [4] Group 5: Glass Market Conditions - Despite a gradual supply contraction, glass inventories continued to rise, with a nearly 4% increase in total inventory as of May 8, exceeding market expectations [5] - The slow recovery in orders and operating rates for downstream processing enterprises limits significant support for glass prices [5] - The glass market may require more time to transition from weakness to strength, given the stable production levels and subdued demand [5]