回顾：债市偏弱运行，净值涨跌互现 （一）固收产品收益回顾：净值涨跌互现，短期品种占优 过去一个月，债市情绪转弱，股市高位震荡。产品表现来看，产品净值涨跌互现，其中含权的固收+产品收益 回调明显，其次是长久期品种收益也转负，短久期品种实现正收益，同业存单和现金管理类基金较为稳定。 | | 本期要点摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 近１月 | 2025 年以来 | | 固收产品收益 | 高等级同业存单指基>现金管理>短债 | 含极佳墓 > 温等级同业存更指著 > 短信著令> | | 回顾 | 基金>中长期债基>含权债基 | 现金管理 > 中长期债基 | | | 近一个月,债市情绪转弱,一是市场 | 1 月偏强震荡, 2 月-3 月中旬债市大幅回 | | 债市回顾 | 预期国内降息幅度将边际收敛;二是 | 调,4月初债市快速走强后回归震荡,5月下 | | | 长债供给不断增加,而机构对长债需 | 旬小幅回调，6月回归震荡,三季度后震荡偏 | | | 求转弱。 | ទី​ | | 行业事件跟踪 | | 1.最新一期《机构监管情况通报》（以下简称《通报》）于 11月 24 日发布,对基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown signs of recovery, with various fixed-income products experiencing an increase in net value, particularly those with embedded options, indicating a favorable investment environment for fixed-income strategies [2][3][11]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Product Performance Review - Over the past month, the bond market has further recovered, with net values of fixed-income products rising. The performance ranking of products is as follows: - Option-embedded bond funds: 0.83% (previously 0.21%) - Medium to long-term bond funds: 0.35% (previously 0.12%) - Short-term bond funds: 0.22% (previously 0.12%) - High-grade interbank certificate index: 0.15% (unchanged) - Cash management products: 0.10% (unchanged) [3][9][10]. Bond Market Review - The bond market sentiment has improved, with mid to long-term bonds outperforming short-term bonds. The yield curve has slightly flattened, influenced by two main factors: 1. Economic headwinds have increased, with consumption and investment slowing down, which is favorable for the bond market. 2. The central bank has resumed bond purchases, signaling a more accommodative monetary policy, leading to a decline in bond market interest rates [11][12][18]. Market Outlook - **Short-term (1 month)**: - Interbank certificate rates are expected to stabilize and decline slightly. The 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 1.9%, with a focus on trading opportunities [11][31]. - **Medium-term (3-6 months)**: - Economic recovery expectations are likely to continue, with funds remaining relatively abundant, leading to a potential range-bound market for bonds. The 10-year government bond yield may face upward pressure but within a limited range [11][31]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - For investors needing liquidity management, it is advisable to maintain cash-like products and consider increasing allocations to stable low-volatility wealth management and short-term bond funds [41][42]. - For conservative investors, it is recommended to continue holding pure bond products, with the possibility of profit-taking if economic pressures increase and monetary easing expectations rise [43]. - For more aggressive investors, it is suggested to consider allocating to fixed-income plus products that include convertible bonds and equity assets, as liquidity is expected to remain relatively ample [45]. Regulatory Developments - Recent regulatory changes include the introduction of guidelines to promote the healthy development of pension wealth management and the asset management trust management measures, which aim to enhance the investment capabilities of institutions and improve the overall market structure [38][39].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance and outlook of fixed income products, highlighting a recovery in the bond market and the varying performance of different types of fixed income investments amid changing economic conditions and market sentiment [1][2]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Product Performance - In the past month, the bond market has shown signs of recovery, with net values of fixed income products increasing. The leading performers include rights-embedded fixed income products, followed by short-duration assets like interbank certificates of deposit and short-term bond funds [3][10]. - As of October 17, the monthly returns for various products were as follows: rights-embedded bond funds at 0.21% (previously 0.54%), high-grade interbank certificates at 0.15% (previously 0.13%), short-term bond funds at 0.12% (previously 0.05%), and medium to long-term bond funds at 0.12% (previously -0.07%) [3][8]. Bond Market Review - The bond market experienced a phase of warming, with short-duration bonds outperforming long-duration ones. The yield curve initially steepened before flattening, influenced by factors such as the escalation of the US-China trade conflict and a weak economic backdrop [10][11]. - Key observations include: - The one-year government bond yield rose by 5 basis points to 1.44%, while the ten-year yield fell by 1 basis point to 1.83% [16][20]. - The average rates for three-month and one-year AAA interbank certificates increased slightly, indicating a stable liquidity environment [11][20]. Market Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest a stable interbank rate with potential for slight decreases, while medium-term projections indicate a continuation of a range-bound market for bonds, with a possible mild widening of yield spreads [1][32]. - The anticipated range for the ten-year government bond yield is between 1.6% and 2.0% [1][32]. Investment Strategies - For investors focused on liquidity management, maintaining cash-like products and considering stable low-volatility investments such as short-term bond funds is recommended. Long-term trends indicate a decline in cash product yields [39][42]. - For conservative investors, holding pure bond products while cautiously extending duration is advised, with a focus on high-grade long-duration bonds when yields exceed 1.8% [43][44]. - For more aggressive investors, a strategic allocation to fixed income plus products, including convertible bonds and equity assets, is suggested, leveraging the current favorable liquidity conditions [44][45].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced a correction, with product net values showing differentiation, particularly favoring rights-inclusive fixed income products over traditional bond funds [2][3][11]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Product Returns Review - In the past month, the bond market corrected while the stock market rose. The performance of products showed differentiation, with rights-inclusive fixed income products yielding 0.54% (down from 0.84%), high-grade interbank certificates of deposit yielding 0.13% (down from 0.14%), and cash management products yielding 0.10% (unchanged). Short-term bond funds yielded 0.05% (up from 0.03%), while medium to long-term bond funds yielded -0.07% (improved from -0.25%) [3][9][10]. Bond Market Review - The bond market saw a correction with overall sentiment remaining weak. Short-term bonds outperformed long-term bonds, and the yield curve continued to steepen. Key factors influencing the bond market included a gradual increase in market risk appetite, new regulations on public fund fees, and a weak economic backdrop [11][12][19]. Industry Events Tracking - On September 5, the China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited public opinions on the "Publicly Raised Securities Investment Fund Sales Fee Management Regulations (Draft for Comments)," which aims to lower costs for investors and promote long-term investment [35]. Outlook - **Short-term (1 month)**: The interbank certificate of deposit rates are expected to remain stable, with continued pressure for corrections in the market. Long-term bonds are anticipated to underperform compared to short-term bonds [11]. - **Medium-term (3-6 months)**: Economic recovery and inflation trends are under observation, with the potential for a slight rise in interest rates. If the central bank initiates a new round of interest rate cuts, it may alleviate correction pressures in the bond market [11][30]. Fixed Income Product Strategy - Investors are advised to prioritize short to medium-term products, with caution advised for long-term investments. The strategy includes maintaining cash positions and considering stable low-volatility financial products, short-term bond funds, or wealth management products [36][39]. Equity Market Overview - The A-share market has shown upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 4.0%, the CSI 300 Index up 7.8%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 21% over the past month [28]. Asset Class Trends - The bond market is expected to face increased volatility, with a potential top in interest rate increases. The supply of government bonds is projected to decrease, while demand remains supported, leading to a neutral impact on the bond market [30][31]. Investment Recommendations - For conservative investors, maintaining pure bond products is recommended, with a cautious approach to extending duration. For those with higher risk tolerance, mid to long-term bond funds may be considered as interest rates rise above 1.8% [39][40]. Conclusion - The bond market is currently experiencing a phase of correction, with varying performance across different products. Investors are encouraged to adopt a strategic approach based on their risk tolerance and market conditions [36][39].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced a pullback recently, leading to a divergence in product net values, with "equity-linked" fixed income products outperforming others [2][3]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Product Yield Review - In the past month, the performance of fixed income products has varied significantly, with equity-linked bond funds yielding 0.84%, high-grade interbank certificates of deposit at 0.14%, cash management at 0.10%, short-term bond funds at 0.03%, and medium to long-term bond funds at -0.25% [3][9]. Bond Market Review - The bond market has faced increased negative disturbances, with expectations of fundamental recovery rising. Key developments include the launch of infrastructure projects and the implementation of various policies [12][35]. - The yield curve has steepened, with short-term rates stable and medium to long-term rates rising. For instance, the 1-year government bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.37%, while the 10-year yield rose by 8 basis points to 1.75% [16][22]. Market Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate stable interbank certificate rates, while medium-term views suggest limited upward movement in interest rates. The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.9% [34][42]. - The credit bond market is anticipated to underperform compared to interest rate bonds in the short term, with credit spreads widening slightly [36][38]. Investment Strategy and Recommendations - For investors focused on liquidity management, maintaining current cash product allocations is advised, with a gradual increase in stable low-volatility investments [44]. - Conservative investors should be cautious with long-duration products, while those with higher risk tolerance may consider medium to long-term bond funds when yields exceed 1.8% [45]. - For advanced conservative investors, a focus on fixed income plus strategies that include convertible bonds and equity assets is recommended [47].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance and outlook of fixed income products in the context of the bond market, highlighting the stability of short-term interest rates and the potential for credit bonds to outperform interest rate bonds in the near future [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Review of Fixed Income Product Returns - In the past month, the bond market experienced low volatility with positive returns across various fixed income products. The leading performance was observed in rights-embedded bond funds, followed by medium to long-term bond funds [3][8]. - As of July 17, the returns for different products over the past month were: rights-embedded bond funds at 0.89% (previously 0.54%), medium-term bond funds at 0.22% (previously 0.31%), short-term bond funds at 0.19% (unchanged), high-grade interbank certificates of deposit at 0.17% (previously 0.15%), and cash management products at 0.11% (unchanged) [3][8]. Bond Market Review - The bond market has shown low volatility with mixed performance between short and long-term bonds. The market sentiment improved due to "anti-involution" policies and the delayed imposition of tariffs by the U.S., which bolstered optimistic expectations [10][11]. - The liquidity in the banking sector was relatively relaxed, with the central bank's actions leading to a slight decrease in short-term interest rates. The one-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit rate fell to 1.63% [11][15]. Industry Events Tracking - On July 11, the National Financial Supervision Administration released the "Financial Institutions Product Suitability Management Measures," effective from February 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing consumer protection and regulating financial institutions' suitability management [37]. Outlook for the Bond Market - Short-term expectations indicate stable interbank certificate of deposit rates, while the long-term outlook remains bullish for bonds, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8% [1][31]. - Credit bonds are anticipated to perform better than interest rate bonds, with a focus on maintaining a balanced duration strategy and considering high-grade long-term credit bonds for potential gains [1][40]. Fixed Income Product Strategy and Recommendations - For investors needing liquidity management, maintaining cash-like products is advisable, while for conservative investors, holding pure bond products with a potential extension of duration is recommended [40][41]. - For more aggressive investors, the article suggests considering fixed income plus products that include convertible bonds and equity assets, with strategies such as quantitative neutral, index enhancement, and multi-asset approaches [42].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown a strong performance recently, with various fixed-income products experiencing growth in returns, particularly those with embedded options [2][3][11]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Product Performance - In the past month, the bond market experienced fluctuations, with rates generally declining. Various stable products saw an increase in net value, especially option-embedded fixed income products, followed by medium- and long-term bond funds [3][9]. - As of June 18, the monthly returns for different products were as follows: option-embedded bond funds at 0.54% (previously 0.62%), medium-term bond funds at 0.31% (previously 0.13%), short-term bond funds at 0.18% (previously 0.19%), high-grade interbank certificates of deposit index funds at 0.15% (previously 0.18%), and cash management products at 0.11% (unchanged) [3][10]. Bond Market Review - The bond market showed a pattern of weakness followed by strength, influenced by market sentiment and liquidity conditions. The tightening of liquidity in late May, combined with the U.S.-China trade meeting in early June, initially suppressed bond market performance. However, after the month transitioned, the central bank's supportive stance on liquidity led to a recovery [11][12]. - The one-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit rate fell to approximately 1.65%, a slight decrease from the previous month, indicating a shift towards a more favorable liquidity environment [12][15]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the bond market is expected to maintain a low-interest, low-volatility trend, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8%, centered around 1.7% [31][34]. - Credit bonds are anticipated to outperform interest rate bonds, with credit spreads likely to remain relatively low, minimizing the risk of significant widening [34]. Asset Management Industry Trends - The scale of wealth management products increased to 31.3 trillion yuan by the end of May, reflecting a 1.6% month-on-month growth. This growth is attributed to the decline in bank deposit rates, which has made wealth management products more attractive [36]. - On May 23, the National Financial Regulatory Administration released a draft for asset management product information disclosure, allowing for more flexible performance benchmark disclosures, which may influence investor behavior in the long term [36]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - For investors needing liquidity management, maintaining cash-like products and considering stable low-volatility wealth management or short-term bond funds is advisable [39]. - For conservative investors, holding pure bond products with a potential extension of duration is recommended, especially as the 10-year government bond yield approaches 1.7%-1.8% [40]. - For more advanced conservative investors, continuing to hold fixed-income plus products is suggested, with a focus on incorporating convertible bonds and equity assets into the strategy [41].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance and outlook of fixed income products and the bond market, highlighting the impact of macroeconomic factors and policy changes on investment strategies and opportunities [1][34]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Products - Recent performance of fixed income products shows that rights-embedded bond funds outperformed short-term bond funds and high-grade interbank certificates of deposit index funds in the past month, with returns of 0.62%, 0.19%, and 0.18% respectively [3][8]. - Cash management products yielded a return of 0.11%, indicating a stable but declining trend in cash product yields, which may approach 1% in the long term [1][38]. Bond Market Review - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with short-term rates stabilizing and long-term rates rising. The 10-year government bond yield increased to 1.68%, while the 1-year government bond yield rose to 1.45% [10][16]. - The easing of US-China tariffs has improved market risk appetite, leading to a slight market correction [10][30]. Market Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate a weak fluctuation in the bond market, with a potential for small adjustments. However, the long-term downtrend in interest rates remains intact, suggesting opportunities for investors to capitalize on market corrections [29][36]. - The 1-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit rate is expected to stabilize between 1.6% and 1.8% [29][30]. Investment Strategies - For investors focused on liquidity management, maintaining cash products and considering low-volatility financial products or short-term bond funds is recommended [38]. - For conservative investors, holding pure bond products and gradually increasing duration exposure is advisable, especially as the 10-year government bond yield approaches 1.7%-1.8% [39]. - For more aggressive investors, fixed income plus products that include convertible bonds and equity assets may present opportunities, with a focus on defensive convertible bond products over aggressive ones [40]. Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued a plan to promote high-quality development in the public fund industry, emphasizing a shift from scale to return, and from short-term to long-term investment strategies [34].

作者：招商银行研究院 零售客群部 私人银行部 | | 本期要点摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 近１月 | 2025 年以来 | | 固收产品 | 中长期借鉴>范佳音等>高美级目小在审指音 | 昌等级同业存审指基 > 现金管理 > 短债塞金>中长 | | 收益回顾 | >现金管理>含权债基 | 期债基 > 含权债基 | | | 近一个月资金面转松,关税冲击国内名义经 | | | 债市回顾 | 济增长预期,信贷扩张趋稳,债市情绪明显 | 1月偏强震荡,2月-3月中旬债市大幅调整,3月 | | | 改善后转而关注政策对冲和关税进展,债券 | 中旬以来转为偏强震荡。 | | | 利率快速下行后转为窄幅震荡。 | | | 行业事件 | | 1、银行理财、保险资管首次获得网下 IPO"打新"入场券。短期有助于理财固收+产品"稳中求 | | 跟踪 | 进"策略更好实现,长期或推动理财权益投资占比进一步提升,有利于产品多样化。 | | | 展望 | 短期(1个月维度) | 中期(3-6个月维度) | | | | 债券市场中长期仍有机会。美国经济"滞胀"压力 | | | -同业存单:预计利率 ...