摊余成本法债基
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增量资金驱动,3-5Y普信债相对吸引力凸显
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-21 14:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the recent bond market fluctuations, the performance of credit bonds has been differentiated, and the allocation attractiveness of 3 - 5 - year ordinary credit bonds has become relatively prominent. The core driver is that December will see a peak in the opening of amortized - cost - based bond funds. The incremental funds of over 100 billion will naturally prefer to allocate high - grade ordinary credit bonds with matching remaining maturities and stable cash flows due to the characteristics of their liability ends and operation rules, thus supporting their valuations. In contrast, although there is a catch - up market for secondary and perpetual bonds, they have large fluctuations and are subject to potential policy disturbances such as the new regulations on fund redemption fees. The investment strategy suggests focusing on the coupon strategy and paying attention to the riding - yield opportunities of 3 - 4 - year ordinary credit bonds [2]. - From November 10th to November 14th, the bond market entered a stage of pricing entanglement, and the difficulty of band operations increased. The overall performance of credit bonds was differentiated. It is recommended to focus on the coupon strategy, pay attention to varieties with relatively sufficient spread protection, gradually deploy 3 - 5Y credit bonds, and focus on the riding - yield opportunities of 3 - 4Y ordinary credit bonds. Looking forward to the second half of November, the credit bond market may continue its structural market, and it is necessary to dig for excess returns through careful bond selection [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Yield and Spread Overview - **Yields and Changes of Each Maturity**: The report presents the yields, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of various bond types at different maturities, including government bonds, policy - bank bonds, local government bonds, and various types of credit bonds. For example, the 0.5Y government bond yield was 1.37%, with a - 0.9bp change compared to the previous week, and a historical quantile of 19.3% [18]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Maturity**: It shows the credit spreads, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of various bond types at different maturities. For instance, the 0.5Y local government bond spread was - 13bp, with a - 1.0bp change compared to the previous week, and a historical quantile of 8.6% [20]. 3.2 Credit Bond Yields and Spreads by Category 3.2.1 Urban Investment Bonds by Region - **Yields and Changes of Each Maturity**: The report provides the yields, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at key maturities. For example, in Anhui, the 0.5Y yield was 1.71%, with a - 2.9bp change compared to the previous week, and a historical quantile of 1.1% [23]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Maturity**: It shows the credit spreads, weekly changes, and historical quantiles of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at key maturities. For example, in Anhui, the 0.5Y credit spread was 18.63bp, with a - 2.1bp change compared to the previous week, and a historical quantile of 0.0% [26]. - **Yields and Changes of Each Implied Rating**: The yields, weekly changes, historical quantiles, and bond balances of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces with each implied rating are presented. For example, in Anhui, the AAA - rated yield was 1.75%, with a 0.7bp change compared to the previous week, and a historical quantile of 4.0% [30]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Implied Rating**: The credit spreads, weekly changes, historical quantiles, and bond balances of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces with each implied rating are provided. For example, in Anhui, the AAA - rated credit spread was 13.71bp, with a 0.7bp change compared to the previous week, and a historical quantile of 1.9% [37]. - **Yields and Changes of Each Administrative Level**: The yields, weekly changes, historical quantiles, and bond balances of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at each administrative level are shown. For example, in Anhui, the provincial - level yield was 1.74%, with a 0.0bp change compared to the previous week, and a historical quantile of 4.0% [41]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Administrative Level**: The credit spreads, weekly changes, historical quantiles, and bond balances of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at each administrative level are presented. For example, in Anhui, the provincial - level credit spread was 12.62bp, with a 0.0bp change compared to the previous week, and a historical quantile of 0.1% [45]. 3.2.2 Industrial Bonds by Industry - **Yields and Changes of Each Maturity**: The report shows the yields, weekly changes, historical quantiles, and bond balances of public non - perpetual industrial bonds in different industries at key maturities. For example, for state - owned real - estate enterprises, the 0.5Y yield was 1.71%, with a - 0.15bp change compared to the previous week, and a historical quantile of 1.5% [49]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Maturity**: It provides the credit spreads, weekly changes, historical quantiles, and bond balances of public non - perpetual industrial bonds in different industries at key maturities. For example, for state - owned real - estate enterprises, the 0.5Y credit spread was 17.71bp, with a 0.3bp change compared to the previous week, and a historical quantile of 4.1% [52]. 3.2.3 Financial Bonds by Issuer - **Yields and Changes of Each Maturity**: The report presents the yields, weekly changes, historical quantiles, and bond balances of financial bonds from different issuers at key maturities. For example, for state - owned commercial banks' commercial financial bonds, the 0.5Y yield was 1.39%, with a 0.5bp change compared to the previous week, and a historical quantile of 4.3% [55]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Maturity**: It shows the credit spreads, weekly changes, historical quantiles, and bond balances of financial bonds from different issuers at key maturities. For example, for state - owned commercial banks' commercial financial bonds, the 0.5Y credit spread was - 13.32bp, with a 1.2bp change compared to the previous week, and a historical quantile of 5.0% [58]. 3.3 Key Indicator Tracking of the Credit Bond Market - **Performance of Major Bond Indexes**: The report shows the performance of major bond indexes in the past three weeks, including the total full - price (total value) index of bonds, the total full - price (total value) index of government bonds, and various credit bond indexes [95]. - **Wealth Management Scale and Break - even Rate**: It shows the change in the wealth management scale compared to the previous week and the cumulative break - even rates of various institutions [97][99]. - **Funds and Market Sentiment Index**: The report presents the funds and market sentiment indexes of the whole market, large - scale banks, small - and medium - sized banks, and non - bank institutions, as well as the TKN, GVN, TRD, and GVN proportion of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds [103][105].
休眠一年后“复活”吸金逾80亿,这类债基为何总遭机构“控场”
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-03 12:15
Group 1 - The core phenomenon observed is the revival of previously dormant fund products, such as Huian Hengli 39-month open-end fund, which attracted significant capital after resuming operations, triggering a proportional allotment mechanism [1][2] - The revival of these bond funds is attributed to several factors, including flexible institutional design, the need for institutional capital allocation, and fluctuations in the bond market [1][4] - The recent increase in attention towards bond funds is evident, with new bond fund issuance in the past month rising nearly 20% compared to the previous month, and bond ETFs seeing a net inflow of over 40 billion yuan in May, a 45% increase [1][6] Group 2 - Huian Hengli 39-month open-end fund saw a significant turnaround, with subscription applications exceeding 8 billion yuan during its recent open period, leading to a confirmation ratio of 92.81% [2][3] - The fund had previously faced challenges, including a drastic reduction in fund shares from 4.2 billion to 100 million and a decrease in the number of holders from 236 to 183 due to insufficient holders during its first open period [3][4] - The fund management announced a fee reduction upon resuming operations, lowering the management fee from 0.3% to 0.15% and the custody fee from 0.06% to 0.05% [3][4] Group 3 - The underlying logic for the revival of these funds is linked to the temporary suspension due to low bond yields, which made the products less competitive, leading to institutional redemptions [5][6] - Once the bond market adjusts and yields become more attractive, fund managers can restart operations, allowing institutional capital to re-enter [5][6] - The recent surge in bond fund popularity is reflected in the public offering market, where bond fund issuance accounted for over 55% of the total in May, an increase of 18.53 percentage points from the previous month [5][6]