对于后市的指数行情，本周各家券商策略普遍积极。 广发策略刘晨明团队指出，当前市场所处的阶段可以概括为"上行收益和下行风险不对等"。即"下行风险"被锁住，"上行收益"则 有较大的潜在空间。 | | | 一周策略前瞻 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券商/分析师 | 结论 | 逻辑 | 关注板块 | | -发策略 | 11 当前市场所处的阶段可以概括为 | 一方面,"下行风险"被锁住:4月央行答记 | 增加对受益远期改善预期、但对即期基 非美出口链(摩托车/逆变器/海风) | | | | 者问曾提出"在必要时间向中国汇金公司提 | | | | | 供充足的再贷款支持"，为后续监管资金的 | | | | | 增量子弹提供保障;而年初金融委明确了" | 本面不敏感的品种:券商、金融IT、地 | | | | 大型国有保险公司从25年起每年新增保费的 | 产。 | | | | 30%用于投资A股",因此保险资金下半年仍 基本面占优的品种:海外算力链、游戏 | | | | | 在徐徐增配。 | | | 刘晨明 | 上行收益和下行风险不对等"。 | 另一方面，"上行收益"则有较大的潜在空 | ...

Market Overview - The current market is experiencing a positive feedback loop of incremental capital inflow, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previously mentioned resistance level of 3450 points, indicating a shift towards a bull market phase [5][10]. - Financing funds are showing a continuous net inflow, particularly favoring technology and growth sectors, with a financing balance reaching 1.86 trillion yuan [10][11]. - Industry and thematic ETFs are increasingly popular, reflecting a significant trend in the market this year, with continuous net inflows observed [12][13]. Financing and Capital Flow - The net inflow of financing funds amounted to 225.35 billion yuan, with a notable preference for sectors such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, and computing [10][11]. - The total net inflow for ETFs was 8.28 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest in these investment vehicles [4][36]. - The market is witnessing a slight net inflow of capital, with the financing balance increasing and the net buying amount for financing funds expanding significantly [5][36]. Northbound Capital - Northbound capital continued its net inflow trend in the second quarter, with an estimated net inflow of 59.1 billion yuan, primarily directed towards sectors like semiconductors, batteries, and securities [19][23]. - As of the end of June, northbound capital held a total of 2.29 trillion yuan in A-shares, reflecting a stable investment interest from foreign investors [19][23]. Market Sentiment and Activity - Market sentiment has improved, with the VIX index declining, indicating a rise in risk appetite among investors [47]. - The trading activity of financing funds has increased, with the proportion of financing transactions in the A-share market rising to 10.1% [45][46]. - The focus of trading has shifted towards essential consumer goods, finance, and the CSI 500 index, with significant trading volumes observed in these sectors [50].