2025 年 08 月 17 日 继续通过中盘股指数参与流动性行情 分析师：吕思江 S1050522030001 lvsj@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：马晨 S1050522050001 machen@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 3、《全天候连续六周新高， 固收+港股 ETF 组合上线》 2025-08-04 投资要点 ▌本周建议一览 核心观点： 综合外盘和国内市场情绪，我们认为自四月开始的风险偏 好改善和流动性提升，会推动指数高位震荡至九月，并有 望在八月下旬见到多资产波动率的提升。 我们希望在主要持仓上回归资产基本面，适当参与流动性 溢价，同时避免成为其他投资者的溢价来源。在全球复苏 Goldilocks 和再通胀逻辑未证伪前，利用波动增加成长股 暴露。大类资产配置上继续保持一定的"反脆弱"资产， 对冲美元可能走强带来的 Risk Off。本轮行情轮动速度 快，大盘股指数基本修复至前高，流动性外溢下我们更多 看好相应的中小盘股指数机会，包括恒生中型股 LOF、科 创 200ETF、创业板 200ETF、中证 1000 和 2000 增强 ETF 等标的。 美股：较低仓位，如果有快速调整建议增配 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics, highlighting the significant increase in trading volumes and the impact of specific events on market sentiment, particularly in the lithium sector and broader A-share market. Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai's electricity consumption reached a record high of 40.55 million kilowatts, a 0.6% increase from last year's peak, attributed partly to the increased trading volume on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which has surged from an average of 200 billion to 700-800 billion [1] - The carbon lithium futures market reacted positively to news of a suspension in mining by a major lithium producer, leading to a surge in stock prices for key lithium companies, which boosted overall market sentiment [7] - The Wind All A index surpassed 5700 points, nearing historical highs from 2015 and 2021, indicating a strong market recovery and potential for further gains as it approaches significant resistance levels [10][12] Group 2: Investment Insights - The current market environment shows a structural divergence in valuations among A-share companies, with some companies valued at levels significantly higher than their fundamentals suggest, while others remain undervalued [14] - The establishment of a new private equity entity by Taiping Insurance aims to invest in high-dividend sectors, reflecting a trend of insurance funds increasing their market presence, with 22 stake acquisitions this year alone, surpassing the total for the previous 24 years [24][25] - The article suggests a cautious approach to investment, advocating for a balanced portfolio and avoiding chasing hot sectors without proper analysis [14][23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of enriching the categories of STAR Market ETFs and derivatives to enhance market functions and provide diversified investment options and effective risk management tools for investors [1][4]. - The "STAR Market Opinions" propose to include STAR Market ETFs in the fund advisory configuration range, aiming to guide long-term capital towards new productive forces and improve fund utilization efficiency through professional management [2][3]. - The rapid expansion of STAR Market broad-based ETFs has effectively directed social funds towards the development of new productive forces, with the total scale exceeding 200 billion [3]. Group 2 - The introduction of more STAR Market ETF options and futures will provide additional risk management tools for medium to long-term capital, responding to the growing demand for risk management as investment scales increase [4]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has announced that starting from October 9, qualified foreign investors will be allowed to participate in on-site ETF options trading, aimed at hedging [4]. - The CSRC is also supporting the establishment of specialized technology companies in Shanghai to enhance asset management services, thereby improving investment and risk management capabilities for various investment institutions [4]. Group 3 - There is a strong push to cultivate and expand patient capital in the capital market ecosystem, which requires creating a more attractive and competitive market system and product service matrix [5][6]. - The involvement of social security funds, insurance funds, and industrial capital in private equity investment is expected to increase, thereby enhancing financial support for technological innovation [6]. - Regulatory adjustments are being made to optimize mechanisms for fund share transfers and encourage long-term and value investments from insurance funds [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the upcoming "Gelonghui Mid-term Strategy Summit 2025" taking place in Shenzhen on July 4-5, featuring various events aimed at providing insights into investment strategies and market trends for the second half of 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The summit will include the 2025 Gelonghui Mid-term Strategy Conference, Global Institutional Investor Forum, and the release of the "Gelonghui Golden Award" ESG Excellence List, along with roadshows from numerous listed companies [2]. - The Global Institutional Investor Forum will invite top-performing secondary market investors to share their unique investment strategies and perspectives on investment directions for the latter half of 2025 [2]. Group 2: Featured Speaker - Li Mu Yang, a fund manager from Huatai-PB Fund, will be a key speaker at the forum, expected to provide valuable insights into investment strategies amidst the changing landscape of 2025 [2]. - Li Mu Yang has a strong background, including a master's degree from Columbia University and experience managing various ETFs, such as the Huatai-PB Photovoltaic ETF and the China-Korea Semiconductor ETF [2]. Group 3: Participation Details - The Global Institutional Investor Forum on July 5 is a paid event, with early bird pricing set at 688 yuan per person for front-row seats and 388 yuan for general seats, limited to 200 participants [2][3].

Group 1 - The "Science and Technology Innovation Board Eight Articles" has effectively guided financial resources towards "hard technology" sectors, with significant growth in ETF products [1] - As of June 6, 2023, 51 new Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs have been listed, bringing the total to 80, nearly tripling the number before the release of the "Eight Articles" [1] - The total scale of these products exceeds 250 billion yuan, representing a nearly 60% increase since the release of the "Eight Articles" [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has developed a comprehensive ecosystem of Science and Technology Innovation Board indices and ETF products, covering broad-based, industry-themed, and strategic types [1] - The overall scale of broad-based ETFs on the Science and Technology Innovation Board has surpassed 200 billion yuan, with the introduction of the Science and Technology 200 ETF and the Science and Technology Comprehensive Index ETF enhancing the product system [1] - The investment targets of broad-based ETFs now cover the Science and Technology 50, 100, 200, and Comprehensive Index, creating a complete product chain to meet diverse investor needs [1] Group 3 - The Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF market is increasingly covering new productive forces, providing a more diversified range of investment tools [2] - The thematic ETFs in the Science and Technology Innovation Board have expanded to include key sectors such as artificial intelligence, new energy, chip design, semiconductor materials and equipment, and industrial machinery [2] - The total scale of the chip industry ETFs exceeds 30 billion yuan, while the six artificial intelligence ETFs set to launch in 2025 have seen their scale grow over three times since issuance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Eight Measures for Deepening the Reform of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board" has effectively guided financial resources towards "hard technology" sectors, optimizing resource allocation and providing strong capital support for cultivating new productive forces [1]. Group 1: ETF Development - The "Eight Measures" explicitly state the need to enrich the categories of Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs and ETF options, as well as to optimize the registration mechanism for broad-based index products [2]. - As of June 6 this year, 51 new Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs have been listed, bringing the total to 80, which is nearly three times the number before the implementation of the "Eight Measures" [2]. - The total scale of Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs has exceeded 250 billion yuan, representing a nearly 60% increase since the "Eight Measures" were announced [2]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Coverage - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board has become the segment with the highest proportion of index-based investment in the A-share market, with 27 fund companies now involved in Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs, an increase of 13 companies since the "Eight Measures" [2]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has developed a comprehensive ecosystem of Sci-Tech Innovation Board indices and ETF products, covering broad-based, industry themes, and strategies [2]. - The introduction of the Sci-Tech 200 ETF and the Sci-Tech Comprehensive Index ETF has significantly enhanced the broad-based index product system, playing a crucial role in attracting new capital and supporting key technological innovations [2]. Group 3: Thematic ETFs and Sector Coverage - The investment targets of broad-based Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs now cover the Sci-Tech 50, 100, 200, and Comprehensive Index, forming a complete product chain that meets diverse investor needs [3]. - The thematic ETFs have expanded to cover key sectors such as artificial intelligence, new energy, chip design, semiconductor materials and equipment, and industrial machinery [3]. - The total scale of the Sci-Tech Chip ETF has exceeded 30 billion yuan, while the six upcoming artificial intelligence ETFs are expected to grow over three times their initial issuance size by 2025 [3].

Core Insights - The implementation of the "Eight Measures for Deepening the Reform of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board" has effectively guided financial resources towards "hard technology" sectors, optimizing resource allocation and providing strong capital support for cultivating new productive forces [1][2] - The number and scale of Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETF products have significantly increased, with 51 new ETFs launched, bringing the total to 80, nearly tripling the number before the "Eight Measures" [1] - The total scale of Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs has exceeded 250 billion yuan, marking a nearly 60% increase since the introduction of the "Eight Measures" [1] Investment Product Development - A comprehensive ecosystem of indices and ETFs covering broad-based, industry themes, and strategies has been established on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2] - The total scale of broad-based ETFs on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has surpassed 200 billion yuan, effectively directing social funds towards the development of new productive forces [2] - The investment targets of broad-based ETFs now include the Sci-Tech 50, 100, 200, and comprehensive indices, fulfilling diverse investor needs [2] Thematic ETF Expansion - The thematic ETFs on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board have expanded to cover key sectors such as artificial intelligence, new energy, chip design, semiconductor materials and equipment, and industrial machinery [2] - The total scale of chip industry ETFs has exceeded 30 billion yuan, while the scale of artificial intelligence ETFs has grown over three times since their issuance [2] - The first batch of innovative drug ETFs is set to be approved soon, with plans for the Shanghai Stock Exchange to continue enriching the index and ETF offerings on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2]

引导资金流入"硬科技"领域。 在"科创板八条"发布一周年之际，6月11日，上交所组织召开投资端座谈会，基金管理人以及保险、券商、银 行、银行理财子公司等机构投资者代表参加。 此次座谈会为"长钱长投 ETF高质量发展生态建设"系列活动之一。座谈会上，与会机构就科创板指数化投资、 ETF高质量发展生态建设等话题进行探讨，建言献策科创板进一步深化改革以及沪市ETF市场高质量发展。 上交所相关负责人透露，正加快推动将科创板ETF纳入基金通平台转让，研究优化做市商机制、盘后固定价格 交易机制，引导更多社会资金流向"新质生产力"领域。 科创板指数化投资比例最高 座谈会上，与会机构代表聚焦科创板指数及产品研发、投资生态优化等话题进行讨论。在机构代表看来，当前 境内指数化投资趋势正加速形成，科创板ETF日益成为投资者参与科创板投资的重要渠道，持续吸引资金流 入"硬科技"企业。 80只科创板ETF已上市，总规模超过2500亿元。据悉，科创板已成为A股指数化投资比例最高的板块，指数化 产品占科创板整体自由流通市值比例达8.3%。 与会机构代表表示，科创板ETF为投资者一键布局科创板提供了便利，在助力保险、银行等中长期资金入市方 ...