gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年02月02日 (原油) 【铝】 周五贵金属暴跌导致市场情绪逆转，有色整体走弱。短期宏观和基本面均对价格形成一定压制，关 注近期区间低点23800元位置支撑，跌破则可能继续向下寻找支撑。此外仍需关注美伊局势是否会 再度引发供应链担忧。 【铸造铝合金】 铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波动,市场活跃度不高。宏观驱动且价格处于高位,铸造铝合金跟涨乏力,与 沪铝价差季节性表现将持续弱于往年。 (氧化铝) 国内氧化铝运行产能维持高位，检修情况增加但长期减产未出现，氧化铝平衡持续处于显著过剩。 矿石跌势下氧化铝现金成本支撑低至2500元以下，现货企稳还需等待规模城产形成,基差处于低 位，盘面持续反弹驱动不强。 伊朗外交部长2月1日表示，伊朗对与美国就核问题达成协议"仍然有信心"。此前伊朗称2/1-2/2 将在霍尔木兹海峡举行实弹军演这一消息带来的地缘溢价已基本被完全回吐,Brent 与WTI原油分 别跌至67美元/桶、63美元/桶。伊朗因素更多扮演油价波动放大器的角色即伊朗地缘局势给油价带 来阶段性溢价,但难以单独推动价格中枢持续上行。真正能改写当下原油供需 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook (★★★)**: Soybean No. 1, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn [1] - **Slightly Positive Outlook (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Pigs, Eggs [1] Core Views - The overall performance of agricultural products futures is affected by multiple factors including macro - economic trends, supply - demand dynamics, and international relations. Different varieties show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean No. 1 - The main contract of domestic soybeans has increased in positions and risen strongly. The re - inflation trading of commodities has a spill - over effect. The spot market is stable, with tight supply but improved marginal supply from policy auctions. Demand may improve marginally with the approaching festival [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Drought in Argentina and a weak US dollar have led to a bottom - oscillating and slightly stronger trend in US soybeans. China has completed a high proportion of soybean purchases for 2 - 3 month shipments. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean harvest and Canadian rapeseed imports which may impact domestic soybean meal prices. Short - term bottom - oscillating pattern is expected [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The overall strength of commodities and re - inflation trading have a spill - over effect. Due to multiple positive drivers, they are more favored. The oil - meal ratio has fallen back, and the palm oil has performed more strongly. High - frequency data shows an improvement in palm oil's supply - demand. Indonesian policies and the rise of RIN prices in the US are beneficial for the prices [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products have generally risen. Domestic coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed crushing, and there is support from pre - Spring Festival stocking. Geopolitical factors and US biofuel policies are positive, but imports are expected to be more relaxed after March, limiting the short - term rebound space [6] Corn - Spot prices in Northeast China and North Ports are stable. Some Shandong deep - processing enterprises have raised purchase prices. The Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures have continued to decline, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. With the approaching Spring Festival, there is an acceleration of slaughter. There is a possibility of a second bottom - hitting in pig prices in the medium - to - long term [8] Eggs - The egg futures have continued to be weak. The spot price is stable, but there is a risk of a decline after the festival. The futures price reflects the expected weakening of the spot market, and the improved profit has increased the pressure on the 2026 far - month contracts. However, there is still a basis for egg prices to strengthen in the first half of 2026 [9]

【豆油&棕榈油】 今日商品整体表现偏强,宏观方面大宗商品再通胀交易呈现扩散状态,对豆油棕榈油也有一定的溢出效应,由 于油脂驱动偏多，因此更受到青睐。美豆走强，美元偏弱以及市场担心阿根廷大豆产区温度偏高，豆粕也呈现 反弹状态，油粕比冲高回落，豆棕价差下跌，棕榈油表现更为强势。棕榈油高频数据显示供需面边际转好。另 外印尼方面的种植园国有化政策,利于增强政策的定价权。美豆油方面RIN价格继续上涨,利于美国生物质柴油 行业利润转好，利于支撑美豆油价格。2026年气象模型预计夏季发生厄尔尼诺概率大，总体来看，利于油脂表 现偏强。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 | | | | '/ V SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 標｜油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月28日 | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 息一 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ななな | | | 棕櫚油 | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | ☆☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 莱粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆油&棕榈油】 豆油延续增仓，棕榈油减仓,油箱比仍强势上行,豆棕价差下跌,棕榈油表现更为强势。棕榈油高频数据显示 供需面边际转好,另外印尼方面的种植园国有化政策，利于增强政策的定价权。美豆油方面RIN价格上涨，利于 美国生物质柴油行业 ...

| | | | VY V SDIC FUIURES | | 2026年01月26日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆一 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ななな | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★★☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约价格表现偏强,并伴随增仓。国产大豆现货市场偏平稳,农户手中余粮偏少,市场供应偏 紧,不过近期政策拍卖成交情况拍好,短期给市场带来边际供应的改善。随着节日的临近,需求方面市场预计 也存在边际改善的概率。 ...

国产大豆主力合约价格表现偏强,并伴随增仓。国产大豆现货市场偏平稳,农户手中余粮偏少,市场供应偏 紧,不过近期政策拍卖成交情况拍好,短期给市场带来边际供应的改善。随着节日的临近,需求方面市场预计 也存在边际改善的概率。宏观方面大宗商品再通胀交易呈现扩散状态,对豆一也有一定的溢出效应。短期持续 关注政策和市场情绪的表现。 【大豆&豆粕】 南美丰产预期重回主要交易逻辑后，短期市场消化完毕。巴西国家商品供应公司（CONAB）数据显示，截止1月 17日，巴西2025/26年度大豆收获完成2.3%，五年同期均值3.2%。新季巴西大豆收割受天气影响,进度偏慢，市 场开始聚焦巴西新季大豆收割进度。国内方面,国家粮油信息中心监测数据显示,目前我国2、3月船期大豆采 购均过9成,4月船期采购过4成。美财长贝森特确认,我国已履行1200万吨大豆采购承诺。后续一方面要持续关 注巴西大豆的收获情况，一般来说2月底开始大范围收获，届时美豆/连粕压力或加大。另一方面随着中加关系 的改善，后续加莱籽及菜粕的进口或对国内豆粕价格形成冲击。短期美豆/连箱或将延续底部震荡格局。 【豆油&棕榈油】 马来西亚高频数据显示出产量环比下降而出口需求环比增 ...