Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The impact of the current US - Iran conflict on crude oil prices is more of a phased and pulsed nature rather than a trend [2] - After the correction of precious metals, they may enter a high - level consolidation phase [3] - Most commodities are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment, showing different trends of volatility and consolidation [2][3] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Crude Oil - The geopolitical premium brought by Iran's military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz has been mostly reversed. Brent and WTI crude oil fell to $67/barrel and $63/barrel respectively. The US - Iran conflict has a phased impact on oil prices [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Supported by geopolitical conflicts, fuel oil maintains a strong and volatile operation. The low - sulfur fuel oil may face pressure as the cold wave ends, and the overall supply shows a slight increase [22] Asphalt - Expected to follow the decline of crude oil. Supply pressure is limited, downstream consumption has improved, and the cracking spread is expected to be strong [23] Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a historical - level adjustment on Friday. After the correction, they may enter a high - level consolidation phase [3] Base Metals Copper - The price of copper in the US market continues to fall towards the MA40 moving average. The overall global visible inventory of copper is high, and the price may be adjusted around the MA60 moving average around the Spring Festival [4] Aluminum - Affected by the decline of precious metals, the non - ferrous metals as a whole are weak. Pay attention to the support at 23,800 yuan. Also, pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply chain [5] Zinc - High zinc prices suppress downstream demand. In 2026, the supply of zinc will exceed demand. In the short - term, there is cost support, and the price may oscillate to form a top [8] Lead - The sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector turns short. The price of lead oscillates in the range of 16,800 - 17,800 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to buy on dips near the cost [9] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of nickel drops from a high level. The downstream of stainless steel is cautious in purchasing, and the actual transaction is weak. The inventory of steel mills is low, and traders are willing to hold up prices [10] Tin - The price of tin is volatile. The inventory in Steel Union's warehouse has increased. The strategy of selling call options last week has achieved high returns [11] Aluminum Oxide - The operating capacity of domestic aluminum oxide remains high, and the market is in a state of significant oversupply. The cash - cost support is low, and the spot price needs large - scale production cuts to stabilize [7] Chemicals Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The decline of oil prices drags down the trading sentiment of the propylene market. The downstream is on the sidelines, and the trading volume of polyethylene is weak. The inventory of polypropylene is slightly low, and the supply of spot resources is tight [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - Affected by sentiment and exports, PVC shows a strong trend. The inventory of manufacturers decreases, and the social inventory increases. Caustic soda shows an oscillating and strong trend, but there is pressure due to high inventory [29] PX and PTA - Although oil prices are strong, the prices of PX and PTA decline. There are expectations of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. In the second quarter, there may be opportunities for long - position based on PX maintenance and polyester load - increasing expectations [30] Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory increases, and the price is blocked at 4,000. In the second quarter, there are expectations of centralized maintenance and demand recovery, but in the long - term, the price is under pressure [31] Short - fiber and Bottle Chips - The supply - demand pattern of short - fiber is good, but the downstream orders are weak. The processing margin of bottle chips has been repaired, but there is long - term capacity pressure [32] Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The net sales volume of new - season US soybeans has decreased significantly. Pay attention to the harvest of Brazilian soybeans, and the price may continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [36] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The prices of soybean oil and palm oil decline. They are affected by macro factors and the overall commodity market atmosphere, and there are risks of volatility [37] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Before the sowing of new - season Canadian crops in late April, pay attention to the sowing area forecast data on March 5 and the weather in the sowing area. The price may return to the range - bound trend in the short - term [38] Corn - The overall grain - selling progress in the country has exceeded 50%. The price of Dalian corn futures may oscillate in the short - term [40] Livestock and Poultry Products - The price of live pigs may have a secondary bottom - seeking in the long - term. The price of eggs may strengthen after the Spring Festival. The short - term trend of cotton is oscillating, and the short - term sugar price faces pressure. The apple price oscillates, and the wood price runs at a low level. The pulp fundamentals are weak [41][42][43][44][45][46][47] Others Shipping - The market of the Container Freight Index (European Line) is strong last week. After the pre - holiday collection ends, the freight rate is expected to decline after the holiday. The impact of the Middle East conflict on the Red Sea shipping route needs further observation [21] Financial Futures - The A - share index futures decline, and the performance of treasury bond futures is differentiated. The A - share market needs to pay attention to the performance of sectors with performance support, and the treasury bond futures may oscillate in a box in the short - term [48][49]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook (★★★)**: Soybean No. 1, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn [1] - **Slightly Positive Outlook (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Pigs, Eggs [1] Core Views - The overall performance of agricultural products futures is affected by multiple factors including macro - economic trends, supply - demand dynamics, and international relations. Different varieties show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean No. 1 - The main contract of domestic soybeans has increased in positions and risen strongly. The re - inflation trading of commodities has a spill - over effect. The spot market is stable, with tight supply but improved marginal supply from policy auctions. Demand may improve marginally with the approaching festival [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Drought in Argentina and a weak US dollar have led to a bottom - oscillating and slightly stronger trend in US soybeans. China has completed a high proportion of soybean purchases for 2 - 3 month shipments. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean harvest and Canadian rapeseed imports which may impact domestic soybean meal prices. Short - term bottom - oscillating pattern is expected [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The overall strength of commodities and re - inflation trading have a spill - over effect. Due to multiple positive drivers, they are more favored. The oil - meal ratio has fallen back, and the palm oil has performed more strongly. High - frequency data shows an improvement in palm oil's supply - demand. Indonesian policies and the rise of RIN prices in the US are beneficial for the prices [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products have generally risen. Domestic coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed crushing, and there is support from pre - Spring Festival stocking. Geopolitical factors and US biofuel policies are positive, but imports are expected to be more relaxed after March, limiting the short - term rebound space [6] Corn - Spot prices in Northeast China and North Ports are stable. Some Shandong deep - processing enterprises have raised purchase prices. The Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures have continued to decline, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. With the approaching Spring Festival, there is an acceleration of slaughter. There is a possibility of a second bottom - hitting in pig prices in the medium - to - long term [8] Eggs - The egg futures have continued to be weak. The spot price is stable, but there is a risk of a decline after the festival. The futures price reflects the expected weakening of the spot market, and the improved profit has increased the pressure on the 2026 far - month contracts. However, there is still a basis for egg prices to strengthen in the first half of 2026 [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Soybean No.1, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn - **Neutral (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Hogs, Eggs [1] Core Viewpoints - The macro - level re - inflation trading in commodities is spreading, which has an overflow effect on agricultural products [2][4] - Different agricultural products have different market trends and influencing factors, and short - term trends vary from variety to variety Summary by Commodity Soybean No.1 - The main contract of domestic soybeans has increased in positions and risen strongly. The spot market is relatively stable, with tight supply and expected marginal improvement in demand [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Argentine drought and a weak US dollar have led to a bottom - oscillating and strengthening trend in US soybeans. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean harvest and Canadian rapeseed imports, and the short - term trend is bottom - oscillating [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The overall performance of commodities is strong. The re - inflation trading in commodities has an overflow effect. The supply - demand of palm oil has improved, and the RIN price of US soybean oil has risen, which is beneficial for the strong performance of oils [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products generally rose today. There is support below due to pre - Spring Festival stocking demand. The short - term trend is oscillating and strengthening, but the rebound space is limited [6] Corn - The spot price of corn in Northeast China and North Ports is stable. The short - term trend of Dalian corn futures is oscillating [7] Live Hogs - The live hog futures continued to decline, with strong supply and weak demand. There is a possibility of a second bottom - hitting in pig prices in the medium - to - long term [8] Eggs - The egg futures continued to be weak. The spot price is stable. There is a risk of a decline in the spot price after the festival. The futures price reflects the expected weakness, but there is a basis for the egg price to strengthen in the first half of 2026 [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Hogs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The domestic soybean market is tight in supply, with marginal improvement in demand expected during the festival. The re - inflation trading of commodities has an overflow effect on soybeans. Short - term focus on policies and market sentiment [2]. - Affected by the weakening dollar, US soybeans are running strongly. After the South American bumper harvest expectation becomes the main trading logic, the market has digested it in the short - term. The pressure on US soybeans/Dalian soybean meal may increase after the large - scale harvest of Brazilian soybeans in late February. The import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal may impact domestic soybean meal prices. Short - term bottom - shock pattern [3]. - Soybean oil continues to increase positions, palm oil reduces positions, the oil - tank ratio rises strongly, the soybean - palm oil spread falls, and palm oil is stronger. The supply - demand of palm oil is improving, and Indonesia's plantation nationalization policy is beneficial to enhance policy pricing power. The rise of RIN price in US soybean oil is beneficial to the profit of the US biodiesel industry. The re - inflation trading of commodities has an overflow effect on soybean oil and palm oil. The El Nino probability in summer 2026 is high, which is beneficial to the strong performance of oils [4]. - The domestic rapeseed market rises slightly, with rapeseed meal slightly stronger than rapeseed oil. The inventory of rapeseed in coastal oil mills remains unchanged, and Australian rapeseed has not been crushed. The market uncertainty lies in the import end. The rapeseed market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the price center may rise slowly [6]. - The spot price of corn in the north and north ports is weak, and some Shandong deep - processing enterprises' purchase prices rise. The Dalian corn futures will fluctuate in the short - term [7]. - Live hogs continue to hit new lows, and the spot price is weak. After the second - fattening before the Spring Festival ends, the industry will face accelerated slaughter. The high points of live hog futures and spot prices have passed, and the pig price is expected to hit a low in the first half of next year [8]. - Egg futures fluctuate narrowly, and most spot prices continue to rise. There is a risk of spot price weakening due to the weakening of pre - Spring Festival stocking demand and the post - Spring Festival consumption off - season. In the long - term, the low replenishment in the second half of 2025 will lead to a continuous decline in the inventory of laying hens in the first half of 2026, and the egg price is expected to strengthen after the off - season. The strong spot price since January is not conducive to the strengthening of the 2026 far - month futures price [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean main contract is strong, with prices fluctuating at a high level. The spot market is stable, with tight supply but marginal improvement from policy auctions. Demand may improve marginally during the festival, and the re - inflation of commodities has an impact [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - Affected by the weak dollar, US soybeans are strong. The South American bumper harvest expectation has been digested. Brazil's January soybean export is expected to be 323 tons, lower than the previous estimate. Pay attention to the Brazilian soybean harvest and the impact of Canadian rapeseed imports on domestic soybean meal prices. Short - term bottom - shock [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Soybean oil increases positions, palm oil reduces positions, the oil - tank ratio rises, and the soybean - palm oil spread falls. Palm oil's supply - demand improves, and Indonesia's policy is beneficial. The rise of RIN price in US soybean oil is beneficial to its price. The re - inflation of commodities has an impact, and the El Nino in 2026 is beneficial to oils [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market rises slightly, with rapeseed meal slightly stronger. The inventory of rapeseed in coastal oil mills remains unchanged, and Australian rapeseed has not been crushed. The market uncertainty lies in the import end, and the market is expected to fluctuate with a slow rise in the price center [6]. Corn - The spot price of corn in the north and north ports is weak, and some Shandong deep - processing enterprises' purchase prices rise. The Dalian corn futures will fluctuate in the short - term [7]. Live Hogs - Live hogs continue to hit new lows, and the spot price is weak. After the second - fattening before the Spring Festival ends, the industry will face accelerated slaughter. The high points of live hog futures and spot prices have passed, and the pig price is expected to hit a low in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - Egg futures fluctuate narrowly, and most spot prices continue to rise. There is a risk of spot price weakening due to the weakening of pre - Spring Festival stocking demand and the post - Spring Festival consumption off - season. In the long - term, the low replenishment in the second half of 2025 will lead to a continuous decline in the inventory of laying hens in the first half of 2026, and the egg price is expected to strengthen after the off - season. The strong spot price since January is not conducive to the strengthening of the 2026 far - month futures price [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ★★★ [1] - Douyou: ★☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ★★☆ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors including supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic trends. Each product has its own unique situation and short - term trends [2][3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Douyi - The price of the domestic soybean main contract is strong with increasing positions. The spot market is stable, supply is tight, but policy auctions improve marginal supply. Demand may improve around festivals, and there is an overflow effect from macro re - inflation trading. Short - term focus on policies and market sentiment [2] Soybean & Doupo - After the South American bumper harvest expectation became the main trading logic, the market has digested it. Brazilian soybean harvest is slow. China has completed most of the soybean procurement for February and March, and 40% for April. Follow the Brazilian harvest and the impact of Canadian rapeseed and caipo imports. Short - term, it will continue to oscillate at the bottom [3] Douyou & Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil supply - demand structure has improved. Indonesia's plantation nationalization policy enhances pricing power. US biodiesel policy is favorable. There is an overflow effect from macro re - inflation trading. Short - term focus on policies and market sentiment [4] Caipo & Caiyou - Uncertainty in the rapeseed market is at the import end. The import cost of Canadian rapeseed has increased, boosting domestic rapeseed futures prices. The overall rapeseed is expected to oscillate strongly, with caiyou slightly stronger than caipo [6] Corn - Corn spot prices in the north are stable. Snow in the northeast boosted sentiment, but the sales progress is slow. With the reduction of available grain sources and pre - holiday restocking demand, the price is relatively strong. Short - term, Dalian corn futures will oscillate [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs is weak, and the futures contract has increased positions and fallen. After mid - January, the second - fattening before the Spring Festival has ended, and there will be accelerated slaughter. The high points of the spot and futures prices have passed, and there may be a low point in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is strong due to supply reduction and pre - holiday food factory demand. The strength of the spot is transmitted to the near - month futures. There are signs of slower culling and better replenishment, which is not conducive to the far - month prices. Short - term, observe the pre - holiday price strength, and in the long - term, consider buying on dips for the first - half - year contracts [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ★★★ [1] - Douyou: ★☆☆ [1] - Zonglvyou: ★★★ [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ★★☆ [1] - Yumi: ★★★ [1] - Shengzhu: ★☆☆ [1] - Jidan: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The prices of domestic soybean futures are strong, and the spot market is stable. The supply is tight, but the policy auction has improved the marginal supply. The demand is expected to improve marginally, and the re - inflation of commodities has an overflow effect. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and market sentiment [2]. - After the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America becomes the main trading logic, the market has digested it. The harvest of new - season Brazilian soybeans is slow. China has completed a high proportion of soybean procurement for February, March, and April. The harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal may impact domestic soybean meal prices. Short - term soybean and soybean meal futures will continue to oscillate at the bottom [3]. - The supply - demand structure of Malaysian palm oil has improved marginally. Indonesia's plantation nationalization policy strengthens pricing power. The US biodiesel policy is favorable for US soybean oil prices. The re - inflation of commodities has an overflow effect. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and market sentiment [4]. - The uncertainty in the rapeseed market lies in the import end. The import cost of Canadian rapeseed has increased, boosting domestic rapeseed futures prices. The overall rapeseed market is expected to oscillate strongly, with rapeseed oil slightly stronger than rapeseed meal [6]. - The spot price of corn is stable. The snow in the Northeast has boosted the bullish sentiment, and the sales progress is slow. The inventory of the middle and lower reaches is low, and the pre - holiday replenishment demand has pushed up the price. The Dalian corn futures will oscillate in the short term [7]. - The spot price of pigs is weak, and the futures price has fallen with increased positions. After mid - January, the second - fattening before the Spring Festival has basically ended, and the industry will face accelerated slaughter. It is expected that the pig price will reach a low point in the first half of next year [8]. - The spot price of eggs is strong due to the decline in supply and pre - holiday food factory procurement. The strength of the spot has been transmitted to the near - month futures. There are signs of slower culling and better replenishment in the egg industry chain, which is not conducive to the strength of the far - month egg prices. In the short term, observe whether the pre - holiday spot price can be maintained, and in the medium - long term, consider buying on dips for the first - half - year contracts [9]. Summary by Directory Douyi - The domestic soybean futures price is strong with increased positions. The spot market is stable, supply is tight, but policy auctions improve marginal supply. Demand may improve marginally, and there is an overflow effect from commodity re - inflation. Short - term focus on policies and market sentiment [2] Doupo - After the market digested the South American bumper - harvest expectation, the new - season Brazilian soybean harvest is slow. China has completed a high proportion of soybean procurement. The harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal may impact domestic soybean meal prices. Short - term futures will oscillate at the bottom [3] Douyou and Zonglvyou - The supply - demand structure of Malaysian palm oil has improved marginally. Indonesia's policy strengthens pricing power. The US biodiesel policy is favorable for US soybean oil prices. There is an overflow effect from commodity re - inflation. Short - term focus on policies and market sentiment [4] Caipo and Caiyou - The uncertainty in the rapeseed market is at the import end. The import cost of Canadian rapeseed has increased, boosting domestic rapeseed futures prices. The overall rapeseed market is expected to oscillate strongly, with rapeseed oil slightly stronger than rapeseed meal [6] Yumi - The spot price of corn is stable. The snow in the Northeast has boosted the bullish sentiment, and the sales progress is slow. The inventory of the middle and lower reaches is low, and the pre - holiday replenishment demand has pushed up the price. The Dalian corn futures will oscillate in the short term [7] Shengzhu - The spot price of pigs is weak, and the futures price has fallen with increased positions. After mid - January, the second - fattening before the Spring Festival has basically ended, and the industry will face accelerated slaughter. It is expected that the pig price will reach a low point in the first half of next year [8] Jidan - The spot price of eggs is strong due to the decline in supply and pre - holiday food factory procurement. The strength of the spot has been transmitted to the near - month futures. There are signs of slower culling and better replenishment in the egg industry chain, which is not conducive to the strength of the far - month egg prices. In the short term, observe whether the pre - holiday spot price can be maintained, and in the medium - long term, consider buying on dips for the first - half - year contracts [9]