1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of supply exceeding demand, certificates of deposit (CDs) may fluctuate at a low level in the range of approximately 1.5% - 1.55% in the short term, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in funds at the end of the quarter [2][46]. - The current liquidity environment is relatively stable, but considering the repurchase operations of reverse repurchase, the room for further loosening of funds is limited. Without the expectation of interest rate cuts, the 1yMLF and the funds price (DR007) impose a lower - bound constraint on CDs, and there may be a small - scale net repurchase situation similar to the reverse repurchase operation in this month's MLF operation. However, in an environment with strong short - term allocation demand, the market remains in a state of supply falling short of demand, which may support the low - level operation of CD interest rates [2][46]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Supply: Net financing further contracts, and the term structure continues to narrow - From March 16th to 22nd, the issuance scale of CDs was 759.79 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was - 403.07 billion yuan (last week it was - 162.32 billion yuan). In terms of the supply structure, the issuance proportion of state - owned banks increased from 14% to 16%, and that of joint - stock banks decreased from 41% to 31%. In terms of terms, the weighted term of CD issuance continued to shorten to 7.98 months (the previous value was 8.28 months) [2][5]. - From March 23rd to 29th, the maturity scale of CDs decreased to 698.2 billion yuan, a weekly decrease of 464.66 billion yuan. The maturities are mainly concentrated in state - owned banks and city commercial banks. From a term perspective, the maturity amounts of 1Y and 6M CDs are relatively high, reaching 249.99 billion yuan and 169.41 billion yuan respectively [2][5]. Demand: Large - scale banks are the main secondary - market allocators, and the primary - market subscription rate declined slightly - In terms of secondary - market allocation institutions, the weekly net purchases of small and medium - sized banks decreased from 63.976 billion yuan to 12.115 billion yuan; those of large - scale banks decreased slightly from 55.302 billion yuan to 54.007 billion yuan; the weekly net sales of money market funds decreased from 84.924 billion yuan to 47.498 billion yuan; the weekly net purchases of wealth management products decreased from 12 billion yuan to 2.7 billion yuan; the weekly net purchases of other types increased by 14.096 billion yuan to 36.337 billion yuan compared with last week (22.241 billion yuan) [2][17]. - In terms of primary - market issuance, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) decreased slightly to 92%. Among different institutions, the subscription rates of rural commercial banks and city commercial banks remained unchanged from last week at 93% and 87% respectively, while those of joint - stock banks and state - owned banks increased from 93% to 94% [2][17]. Valuation: The primary and secondary pricing of CDs continues to fluctuate at a low level - In terms of primary - market pricing, the weighted issuance rate of 1y joint - stock bank CDs decreased slightly to 1.53%. Specifically, the 3M CDs of joint - stock banks decreased by 3bp compared with last week, and the 9M CDs decreased by 2bp, around 1.51%. The 1y variety's pricing continued to fluctuate at a low level, dropping to 1.53%. In terms of term spreads, the 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks was 4.58bp, at the 13% historical quantile. In terms of credit spreads, the spread between 1Y city commercial banks and joint - stock banks was 6.42BP, with the spread quantile around 3%; the spread between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks was 5.55BP, with the spread quantile around 6% [2][20]. - In terms of secondary - market yields, the yields of AAA - rated CDs decreased and remained in a low - level fluctuation. Specifically, the 1M and 6M varieties decreased by 4bp compared with last week, the 3M and 9M varieties decreased by 3bp and 2bp respectively, and the 1Y variety decreased by 2bp, around 1.52%. In terms of term spreads, the 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated CDs was 5bp, at the 18% historical quantile level [2][27]. Comparison: The spreads between CDs and treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds basically remained unchanged - Specifically, the spread between the 1yAAA - rated CD yield and the DR007:15DMA funds widened from 6.70BP to 7.35BP; the spread with the R007:15DMA funds widened from 0.91BP to 1.42BP; the spread between CDs and treasury bonds increased slightly from 25.57BP to 25.82BP, with the quantile remaining at 28%; the spread between CDs and policy - bank bonds increased slightly from 4.33BP to 4.41BP, with the quantile remaining around 5%. In addition, the spread between AAA medium - and short - term notes and CDs narrowed from 1.72BP to 1.68BP, and the quantile decreased to around 9% [2][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first ten days of March, the bond market was mainly priced by two logics: the rising risk - aversion sentiment caused by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and whether there were new statements or incremental policies in the government work report of the Two Sessions. With the long - end interest rates in a sideways shock state and short - end performance being more dominant, the interest - rate bond curve steepened as a whole. Meanwhile, the general credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds continued their strong performance [1]. - Starting from mid - March, three logics are worthy of attention: the price - rising logic, the marginal changes at the institutional level, and the central bank's possible "slow withdrawal" of medium - and long - term redundant funds. Without incremental positive factors, long - end interest rates may be in a "unable to decline" state, and the key variable to break the lower bound of interest rates may be the implementation of interest - rate cuts, with April being a critical window [2][3]. - For bond - market strategies, the box - thinking may still work. When the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds enters the range of 1.83 - 1.85%, it may be in a state where long - end interest rates "cannot rise", and high - elasticity varieties can be added to increase the duration; when the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds drops to the range of 1.75 - 1.77%, a catalyst is needed for further decline, and one can consider taking profits on long - term bonds and waiting, using the leverage + coupon strategy as a transition. In mid - March, one should play the game of rising inflation while taking into account the possibility of interest - rate cuts, with the portfolio duration placed at a neutral level and a more extreme dumbbell strategy adopted [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Multi - factor Intertwining, Cautious Pricing in the Bond Market - From March 2 - 6, affected by domestic important meetings and overseas geopolitical conflicts, the bond market priced cautiously. The long - end interest rates of 10 - year Treasury bonds, 30 - year Treasury bonds, and 10 - year CDB bonds had slight fluctuations, while the short - end interest rates of 1 - year and 3 - year Treasury bonds also changed [8]. - In the first week of March, the central bank routinely withdrew the cross - month funds, and the weekly average of R001 and R007 were 1.36% and 1.51% respectively. In a loose environment, the short - end performed better, and the interest - rate bond curve steepened. The yields of general credit bonds showed a parallel downward trend, and the issuance rates of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined counter - seasonally [10][13]. 3.2. Three Logics Worthy of Attention from Mid - March - **Price - rising logic**: Since the beginning of March, the full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has led to a sharp rise in crude - oil prices. If the average price of Brent crude oil in March reaches $90, $100, and $120 per barrel respectively, the impact on the year - on - year growth rate of China's PPI in March will be + 0.5pct, + 0.7pct, and 1.2pct respectively, and the delayed impact on April data may reach + 0.6pct, + 0.8pct, and 1.4pct. The market may pre - price the potential accelerated recovery of inflation [19]. - **Institutional - level marginal changes**: From January to March 2026, the medium - and long - term bond allocation behavior of large banks in the secondary market went through three stages: over - buying in January, slow - buying in February, and no - buying in March, indicating that the early - year asset - grabbing is coming to an end. As the primary - market supply accelerates, large banks are gradually returning to the role of sellers of long - term bonds in the secondary market. Near the end - of - quarter revenue settlement, banks may turn to taking profits and have a higher demand to reduce medium - and long - term bonds [21]. - **The central bank's possible "slow withdrawal" of medium - and long - term redundant funds**: Recently, the central bank has started to implement a "slow withdrawal" operation for medium - and long - term funds. For example, the bond - buying scale in February decreased from 100 billion yuan to 50 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal of 3 - month repurchase in March was 200 billion yuan. It is crucial to observe the stability of the money market after the Two Sessions [24]. 3.3. The Seasonal Recovery of Wealth - Management Scale in the First Week of the Month - **Weekly scale**: The wealth - management scale decreased at the end of February due to the impact of balance - sheet return pressure. In the first week of March, it recovered as expected, with a week - on - week increase of 33.5 billion yuan to 33.37 trillion yuan. As the end of the quarter approaches, the balance - sheet return pressure will gradually emerge [35]. - **Wealth - management risks**: The retracement of equity - containing products has increased, and the negative - return ratio of wealth - management products has risen. The overall negative - return ratio of wealth - management products has increased by 7.73pct to 9.65% this week. The net - breaking rate of all products has increased by 0.02pct to 0.31%, and the performance non - compliance rate has increased by 0.3pct to 25.1% [41][49]. 3.4. The Leverage Ratio in the Inter - bank and Exchange Markets Has Both Increased - From March 2 - 6, the money market loosened spontaneously under the influence of fiscal expenditure. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased significantly, and the proportion of overnight trading also increased. The inter - bank leverage ratio, exchange - market leverage ratio, and the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions all increased [55][59]. 3.5. Both Interest - type and Credit - type Medium - and Long - term Bond Funds Have Extended Their Durations - From March 2 - 6, the durations of interest - type and credit - type medium - and long - term bond funds have both increased. The weekly average duration of interest - type medium - and long - term bond funds has increased from 3.26 years to 3.43 years, and that of credit - type medium - and long - term bond funds has increased from 1.96 years to 2.05 years. The durations of short - term and medium - short - term bond funds have slightly decreased [66][75]. 3.6. The Net Issuance Scale of Government Bonds Has Decreased - From March 9 - 13, the planned issuance of government bonds is 49.75 billion yuan, slightly higher than the previous week. However, the net payment of government bonds on a payment - date basis will turn negative, estimated to be about - 162.1 billion yuan. The net payment of Treasury bonds has decreased significantly, and the net payment of local bonds has also decreased [77][80].

Group 1 - The effectiveness of coupon strategies and the certainty of arbitrage space remain high, providing support for credit bond allocation [6][7] - The stability of the liability side and the effectiveness of coupon strategies contribute to the strong anti-drawdown characteristics of credit bonds [6] - The opening of amortized debt funds and the increase in allocation to credit bonds provide support for the demand for credit bonds in March [6][9] Group 2 - The credit bond market saw a net financing outflow for two consecutive weeks, with a total issuance of 917.9 billion yuan and a maturity of 1,757 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of -839.1 billion yuan [11][12] - The issuance of short-term financing bonds, medium-term notes, and corporate bonds increased compared to the previous week, with AAA-rated issuers making up the largest proportion at 59.5% [11][12] - The secondary market showed increased trading volume, with a total transaction of 4,812 billion yuan, and the yield on medium-term notes slightly increased [14][15] Group 3 - There are opportunities to explore the yield spread of credit bond varieties, particularly in perpetual bonds, which have a higher yield spread compared to ordinary industrial bonds [7][10] - Recommended strategies for perpetual bonds include a coupon strategy for coal and steel industry entities with a remaining term of less than 2 years, and a duration strategy for public utilities and transportation central state-owned enterprises around 5 years [7][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report delves into the investment opportunities of 10 - year secondary capital bonds. It analyzes the development history of commercial bank secondary capital bonds, the issuance and trading condition of 10 - year secondary capital bonds, the main investors, and provides investment strategies from both allocation and trading perspectives [4][7][49]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 10 - year Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond Decryption - **Development History of Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bonds**: The development of China's commercial bank secondary capital bonds can be divided into four stages. From 2004 - 2012, it was the "old - style sub - debt" stage; from 2013 - 2019, "new - style secondary capital bonds" emerged; from 2020 - 2023, the market's risk perception deepened; from 2024 to the present, the market entered a new innovation cycle [4][8][9]. - **The "Past and Present" of 10 - year Secondary Capital Bonds**: The first 10 + 5 - year secondary capital bond was issued by Agricultural Bank of China in March 2019. Since 2019, only state - owned large - scale banks and state - owned joint - stock banks have issued 10Y secondary capital bonds. The state - owned large - scale banks are the main issuers, with Agricultural Bank of China having the largest issuance volume. In terms of the stock, the secondary capital bonds with a remaining term of 3 - 5 years have the largest stock, followed by those with a remaining term of 7 - 10 years [18][22][24]. - **Secondary Transaction Situation of 10 - year Secondary Capital Bonds**: From January 1, 2025, to January 13, 2026, the secondary capital bonds with a term of 3 - 5 years were the most actively traded, followed by those with a term of 1 - 3 years. The 7 - 10 - year secondary capital bonds ranked fourth in terms of trading volume. The 9 - 10 - year secondary capital bonds had the largest trading volume among long - term bonds, and the 10 - year secondary capital bonds issued by Agricultural Bank of China had the best liquidity [30][32][33]. - **Who is Buying 10 - year Secondary Capital Bonds**: Insurance institutions are the main buyers of 10Y secondary capital bonds, with a net increase of about 1.6 billion yuan in 7 - 10Y secondary capital bonds in the past year. However, due to accounting treatment issues, insurance funds are more cautious in asset allocation. The increase in trading volume in the past month may be due to insurance companies' net purchases. In addition, securities companies, insurance companies, and fund products are the top three buyers in the past month, but the net purchase scale of securities companies is negative, indicating a stronger trading nature [36][42][43]. Investment Strategies for 10 - year Secondary Capital Bonds - **From the Perspective of Allocation**: The report uses interest rate spread and variety premium as key indicators to measure the relative value of 10Y secondary capital bonds. In terms of interest rate spread, when the funds are loose and the interest rate spread is high, the yield of 10Y secondary capital bonds may decline. In terms of variety premium, the trend of 10Y secondary capital bonds is highly consistent with that of ultra - long local bonds, with a "volatility amplification" effect in some periods [50][52][54]. - **From the Perspective of Trading**: The report reviews the term spread, the order of yield peaks of 10Y secondary capital bonds and other varieties, and the spread indicators between secondary capital bonds and urban investment bonds. Since 2025, the term spread between 10Y and 5Y secondary capital bonds has moved in the same direction as the 10Y secondary capital bond. In the interest rate upward cycle since 2023, 10Y secondary capital bonds have risen and fallen in the same direction as other varieties; in the downward cycle, almost all varieties reach the stage low at the same time. When the spread between 10Y secondary capital bonds and 10Y urban investment bonds turns negative, the yield of 10Y secondary capital bonds often has room to decline [59][66][76]. - **Summary of Trading Strategies**: The report provides a basic framework for investment decisions by reviewing historical experiences from the perspectives of allocation and trading, and summarizing the core judgment indicators and rules for the interest rate to reach the stage peak and bottom [81][82][83].

Group 1 - The core message from Goldman Sachs is that while the dominance of the US dollar is weakening, it is not collapsing yet, with a projected slow decline influenced by global growth and balanced asset returns [1][2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the dollar will experience a "slow downward process," driven by strong global growth, despite the dollar being overvalued by approximately 15% according to their GSDEER model [1][2] - The report highlights that the most significant risks to the dollar's value may arise from structural changes in capital markets rather than traditional macroeconomic data [1][2] Group 2 - The outlook for the euro is that it is nearing "fair value" against the dollar, with further appreciation likely driven by the dollar's weakness rather than explosive growth in the Eurozone [3] - The British pound is identified as a "laggard" among G10 currencies, facing structural overvaluation and lacking fundamental support due to pressures from fiscal tightening and a weak domestic economic outlook [3] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Bank of England will implement more aggressive rate cuts than the market expects, which will negatively impact the pound's performance compared to its European counterparts [3] Group 3 - In Asia, Goldman Sachs sees opportunities in low-yield currencies closely tied to the technology supply chain, such as the South Korean won, New Taiwan dollar, and Malaysian ringgit, which are expected to outperform higher-yield currencies like the Indonesian rupiah and Philippine peso [5] - The South Korean won is particularly favored due to expected inflows from the inclusion in the FTSE World Government Bond Index and the resumption of foreign exchange hedging by the National Pension Service [5] - For emerging markets, Goldman Sachs recommends focusing on currencies with improving fundamentals and attractive valuations, such as the Brazilian real and Colombian peso, which offer significant carry trade potential despite political uncertainties [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of the Hong Kong and A-share markets, driven by significant capital inflows and favorable market conditions [1][2][3]. - In the Hong Kong market, major tech stocks like Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi saw a net inflow of over 23 billion, indicating a solid capital base [1]. - The A-share market experienced a record trading volume of approximately 3.2 trillion, ranking as the second highest in history, reflecting increased investor activity [4][5]. Group 2 - The term "fast" refers to the rapid breakthrough of key index levels, with the Wind All A index surpassing 6000 points to 6100 points in just one trading day [7][8]. - The term "fierce" indicates a significant increase in financing balance, with net purchases exceeding 90 billion, marking a substantial acceleration in market activity [11]. - A new policy in Shanghai to relax housing purchase restrictions in areas outside the outer ring is expected to impact the real estate market and broader asset classes [14][17]. Group 3 - The article discusses the performance of the A500 and CSI 300 indices, which have surpassed their previous highs, indicating a recovery for investors who bought into broad-based ETFs [18][20]. - The article emphasizes the importance of quality equity investments in the current market environment, suggesting a favorable outlook for long-term investors [22][23]. - The bond market is also highlighted, with a notable decline in 30-year government bond yields, indicating a bullish trend in both stocks and bonds [26][28]. Group 4 - The article mentions the expansion of the Sci-Tech bond market, with a significant issuance scale of approximately 600 billion in the first half of the year, supporting the technology sector's growth [28][30]. - Recent developments in Sci-Tech bond ETFs, including their inclusion in the pledge financing system, are expected to attract more institutional investment [31][36]. - The article suggests that the Sci-Tech bond ETFs will benefit from strong liquidity and low management fees, making them an attractive option for investors [38].