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12月29日信用债异常成交跟踪
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-12-29 15:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Among the bonds with discounted transactions, "25 Grid MTN024" had a relatively large deviation in bond valuation price. Among the bonds with rising net prices, "25 Qingdao Chengyang MTN002" led in terms of valuation price deviation. Among the Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with rising net prices, "22 Nanjing Bank Perpetual Bond 01" had a relatively large deviation in valuation price; among the commercial financial bonds with rising net prices, "23 Agricultural Bank of China Three - Rural Bond" led in terms of valuation price deviation. Among the bonds with a transaction yield higher than 5%, real - estate bonds ranked high. The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the (0,5] interval. The transaction terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 0.5 - 1 - year variety having the highest proportion of discounted transactions; the transaction terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, and bonds of various terms were generally traded at a discount. By industry, the bonds in the electronics industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Discounted Transaction Tracking - Bonds such as "25 Grid MTN024", "24产融05", and "25邛崃建投PPN001A" had discounted transactions, with different remaining terms, valuation price deviations, and transaction scales. For example, "25 Grid MTN024" had a remaining term of 14.48 years, a valuation price deviation of - 0.30%, and a transaction scale of 95400000 yuan [4] 3.2 Tracking of Bonds with Rising Net Prices - Bonds like "25 Qingdao Chengyang MTN002", "24 Huaibei 03", and "25 Huai 'an Investment 03" had rising net prices, with varying remaining terms, valuation price deviations, and transaction scales. For instance, "25 Qingdao Chengyang MTN002" had a remaining term of 2.99 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.27%, and a transaction scale of 40040000 yuan [5] 3.3 Tracking of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Transactions - Bonds including "22 Nanjing Bank Perpetual Bond 01", "22 Ningbo Bank Tier 2 Capital Bond 01", and "22 Huaxia Bank Tier 2 Capital Bond 01" were involved in transactions, with different remaining terms, valuation price deviations, and transaction scales. For example, "22 Nanjing Bank Perpetual Bond 01" had a remaining term of 1.82 years, a valuation price deviation of - 0.01%, and a transaction scale of 81970000 yuan [6] 3.4 Tracking of Commercial Financial Bond Transactions - Bonds such as "23 Agricultural Bank of China Three - Rural Bond", "24 Bank of China (Hong Kong) Bond 01BC", and "23 Jiangnan Rural Commercial Bank Three - Rural Bond" were traded, with different remaining terms, valuation price deviations, and transaction scales. For instance, "23 Agricultural Bank of China Three - Rural Bond" had a remaining term of 0.44 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.01%, and a transaction scale of 50220000 yuan [7] 3.5 Tracking of Bonds with a Transaction Yield Higher than 5% - Bonds including "21 Gemdale 04", "20 Zunhe 01", and "24 Liaoning Fangda MTN001" had a transaction yield higher than 5%, with different remaining terms, valuation price deviations, and transaction scales. For example, "21 Gemdale 04" had a remaining term of 0.27 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.03%, and a transaction scale of 10760000 yuan [8] 3.6 Distribution of Credit Bond Transaction Valuation Deviations on the Day - The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the [- 10, - 5), [- 5,0), (0,5], and (5,10] intervals, with corresponding bond numbers and transaction scales [10] 3.7 Distribution of Non - financial Credit Bond Transaction Terms on the Day - The transaction terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 0.5 years and 5 years, with different transaction scales and proportions of discounted transactions in each interval [12] 3.8 Distribution of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Transaction Terms on the Day - The transaction terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 1 year and 5 years, with different transaction scales and proportions of discounted transactions in each interval [15] 3.9 Discounted Transaction Proportion and Transaction Scale of Non - financial Credit Bonds in Each Industry - Different industries had different average valuation price deviations and transaction scales for non - financial credit bonds. The electronics industry had the largest average valuation price deviation [18]
高波动环境中的策略转向
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-12-19 15:37
量化信用策略 截至 12 月 12 日,控回撤成为近期主要策略目标。具体来看,城投短端下沉、商金债子弹型及券商债下沉组合的累计 超额收益分别达到 5bp、4.4bp、1.5bp,其余中长端策略累计则不足 5bp。近一个月内慢涨快跌的行情下控回撤成为 主要目标,而非基于久期+波段做出超额,毕竟前两个月表现出色的城投哑铃组合,近四周累计超额读数降至-25.7bp 的低位。金融债重仓组合也是如此,下沉策略超出对应久期策略累计收益均值 12bp 之多。 ETF 谋势 上周(12/8-12/12)债券型 ETF 资金净流入 29.5 亿元,信用债 ETF、利率债 ETF、可转债 ETF 分别净流入 53.7 亿元、 净流出 9.6 亿元、净流出 14.6 亿元。业绩表现来看,相较于上周,信用债 ETF、利率债 ETF、可转债 ETF 累计单位净 值周度涨跌幅分别为+0.05%、+0.08%、+0.20%,债券 ETF 净值边际修复。 票息资产热度图谱 截至 2025 年 12 月 15 日,与前一周相比,非金融非地产类产业债收益超过半数上行,不过,除 1 年内民企私募债外, 其余品种收益调整不足 4BP;地产债收益普遍 ...
量化信用策略:控回撤的思路还奏效吗?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-12-14 13:42
Group 1 - The simulated portfolio's returns have continued to rebound, with the exception of some secondary bond-heavy portfolios, while other credit style strategies have not outperformed their corresponding interest rate styles [3][17][22] - In the interest rate style portfolio, the secondary ultra-long and mixed barbell strategies showed significant rebounds, with weekly returns of 0.16% and 0.13% respectively [3][19] - In the credit style portfolio, the secondary ultra-long and mixed barbell strategies led with returns of 0.29% and 0.17% respectively [3][19] Group 2 - The average weekly return of the credit style time deposit heavy portfolio increased by 9.7 basis points to 0.06%, while the cumulative return since the fourth quarter has been lower than the corresponding interest rate style [3][22] - The city investment heavy portfolio's average return rose by 21 basis points to 0.07%, with bullet strategies achieving a return of 0.11%, outperforming short-end and barbell strategies [3][22] - The average return of the secondary capital bond heavy portfolio increased to 0.14%, with rebounds in secondary sinking and mixed barbell strategies at 0.15% and 0.17% respectively, but these rebounds were insufficient to offset previous losses [3][22] Group 3 - The credit style portfolio's coupon rates have shown signs of recovery, particularly in the bank subordinated bond heavy portfolio, which has a competitive yield in absolute terms [4][29] - The annualized yields for the secondary perpetual bond duration strategy are 2.19% and 2.23%, approximately 39 basis points away from the year's low [4][29] - The contribution from coupon income ranges from 20% to 90%, with most of the week's returns coming from capital gains [4][29] Group 4 - In the past four weeks, controlling drawdown has become the main strategy objective, with short-end sinking and commercial bank bond portfolios still showing positive cumulative excess returns [5][33] - The cumulative excess returns for city investment short-end sinking, commercial bank bullet, and broker bond sinking portfolios are 5 basis points, 4.4 basis points, and 1.5 basis points respectively, while other medium to long-term strategies have accumulated less than 5 basis points [5][33] - The city investment barbell strategy, which performed well in the previous two months, has seen its cumulative excess return drop to -25.7 basis points over the past four weeks [5][33] Group 5 - The trading direction for 4 to 5-year long-term credit bonds may show divergence, with some medium to long-term duration strategies lacking excess returns [6][36] - The short-end time deposit strategy's excess return turned negative this week, while the city investment sinking strategy showed a slight positive deviation from the benchmark [6][36] - The excess returns for ultra-long strategies have risen to their highest level since late October, with city investment, industry, and secondary ultra-long strategies recording 9.4 basis points, 11.1 basis points, and 29.7 basis points respectively [6][36]
信用周报20251207:2026年信用债供给怎么看?-20251208
Western Securities· 2025-12-08 08:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the overall supply of credit bonds is expected to increase, with a total net financing of 3.13 trillion yuan, up 330.5 billion yuan from 2025. Industrial bonds will be the main contributor, with a net financing of 2.5 trillion yuan [1][9]. - The regulatory tightening on urban investment platforms will continue in 2026, and the net financing of urban investment bonds is expected to shrink further to -416.3 billion yuan. The net financing of non - bank institutional bonds is expected to increase to 44.29 billion yuan. The net financing of commercial bank financial bonds is expected to be close to 2025, at 24.43 billion yuan, and the net financing of bank secondary and perpetual bonds may drop to 36.44 billion yuan [1][10][19]. - In the week of 2025/12/1 - 12/5, the yields of credit bonds increased across the board. Non - financial credit bonds performed better than financial bonds, and among financial bonds, 10 - year brokerage sub - bonds performed best. Looking ahead, credit bonds may show a volatile trend, and a coupon strategy is recommended [2][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2026 Credit Bond Supply Estimation - Overall, in 2026, driven by the growth of industrial bond net financing, the supply of credit bonds is expected to increase. Industrial bonds are the main contributor to supply, with a net financing of 2.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 468.6 billion yuan from 2025 [9][15]. - Urban investment bonds: Due to continued strict supervision, the net financing is expected to shrink to -416.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 212.4 billion yuan from 2025 [10]. - Non - bank institutional bonds: With the expected recovery of the equity market, the full implementation of the I9 standard, and high refinancing pressure, the net financing is expected to reach 44.29 billion yuan, an increase of 11.97 billion yuan from 2025 [10]. - Commercial bank financial bonds: Under the policy guidance of淡化 "scale concept", the net financing is expected to be 24.43 billion yuan, close to 2025 [19]. - Bank secondary and perpetual bonds: Affected by factors such as state - owned bank capital injection, debt replacement, and the substitution of TLAC bonds, the net financing is expected to be 36.44 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.3 billion yuan from 2025 [19]. 3.2 Credit Bond Yield Overview - In the week of 2025/12/1 - 12/5, credit bond yields increased across the board. Non - financial credit bonds outperformed financial bonds, and among financial bonds, 10 - year brokerage sub - bonds performed best [24]. - Urban investment bonds generally showed a feature that the longer the duration, the greater the increase in yield. The 10 - year bonds had the largest average increase of 7bp [24]. - Industrial bonds: High - rating and short - duration bonds had a significantly lower average increase in yield than other types of bonds [24]. - Financial bonds: The increase in yield was generally greater than that of general credit bonds of the same term, and short - duration bonds had a smaller increase than medium - and long - duration bonds [25]. 3.3 Primary Market 3.3.1 Issuance Volume - In the week of December 1 - 5, 2025, the issuance scale of credit bonds decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The net financing decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The net financing of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds decreased by 4 billion yuan, 74.2 billion yuan, and 37.9 billion yuan respectively month - on - month [35]. 3.3.2 Issuance Cost - The average issuance interest rate of credit bonds increased. The average issuance interest rate of urban investment bonds decreased by 1.4bp month - on - month, while that of industrial and financial bonds increased by 15.8bp and 4.6bp respectively [41]. 3.3.3 Issuance Term - The average issuance term of credit bonds decreased month - on - month. The average issuance terms of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds decreased by 0.13 years, 0.02 years, and 0.19 years respectively [45]. 3.3.4 Cancellation of Issuance - In the week of December 1 - 5, 2025, the number of credit bond cancellations increased month - on - month, while the scale decreased. Nine bonds were cancelled, an increase of 2 from the previous week, and the total cancellation scale was 3.738 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.479 billion yuan [47]. 3.4 Secondary Market 3.4.1 Trading Volume - The trading volume of all types of credit bonds decreased compared with the previous week, and the trading volume of industrial bonds decreased by more than 50 billion yuan [53]. - In terms of remaining term, the trading terms of urban investment and industrial bonds extended, while the trading term of bank secondary capital bonds shortened [53]. 3.4.2 Trading Liquidity - This week, the turnover rates of industrial and financial bonds decreased, while that of urban investment bonds remained flat. Among different terms, the turnover rates of different types of bonds showed different trends [56]. 3.4.3 Spread Tracking - This week, the spreads of urban investment bonds narrowed for most bond types, except for 1 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year AA + and AA(2) bonds. The spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds widened across the board, and the spreads of brokerage sub - bonds mostly widened, while those of insurance sub - bonds widened across the board [64][70][72]. 3.5 Weekly Hot Bonds Overview - Based on qeubee's bond liquidity scores, the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity are selected for investors' reference [74]. 3.6 Credit Rating Adjustment Review - According to domestic rating agencies, this week, the debt rating of 1 bond was upgraded, and there was no downgrade of debt ratings [80].
银行资负跟踪20251207:Q4银行浮盈兑现估算和EVE指标影响看法
CMS· 2025-12-07 05:03
银行资负跟踪 20251207 Q4 银行浮盈兑现估算和 EVE 指标影响看法 总量研究/银行 证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 推荐(维持) 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 41 | 0.8 | | 总市值(十亿元) | 11363.4 | 10.8 | | 流通市值(十亿元) | 10692.5 | 11.2 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -2.0 -1.0 15.2 相对表现 -1.1 -19.2 -1.7 资料来源:公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Dec/24 Apr/25 Jul/25 Nov/25 (%) 银行 沪深300 相关报告 1、《1500 亿以下发债银行资负情况 — 银 行 资 负 跟 踪 20251130 》 2025-11-30 2、《央行利率比价与综合收益比价 的异同—银行资负跟踪 20251123》 2025-11-23 3、《资本和风险分类新规过渡期结 束压力测算 — 银 行 研 思 录 26 》 2025-11-18 王先爽 S1090 ...
银行视角看政策:25Q3 货币政策报告的 4 点关注
CMS· 2025-11-12 02:43
Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Recommended" indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights four key points from the 2025 Q3 monetary policy report released by the central bank, focusing on loan interest rates, the shift in monetary policy language, the relationship between monetary aggregates, and the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Loan Interest Rates - As of September 2025, the weighted average loan interest rate is 3.24%, down 5 basis points from the previous month. The average interest rate for general loans is 3.67%, down 2 basis points, while the personal housing loan rate remains stable at 3.06%. The corporate loan rate is 3.14%, down 8 basis points. The excess reserve ratio is 1.4%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1][12]. Monetary Policy Language - The monetary policy language has shifted from "strengthening counter-cyclical adjustments" to "doing a good job in both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments." The outlook does not mention the likelihood of reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate reductions, indicating a stable capital market and improving inflation trends [2]. Financial Aggregates - The report emphasizes that the current high level of financial data means future monetary policy effects will focus more on "price" rather than "quantity." Without real demand and fiscal policy support, the expansion of base money may not effectively translate into broad money supply growth [3]. Interest Rate Relationships - The central bank aims to ensure that banks do not issue loans at post-tax rates lower than the yields of government bonds of the same maturity. This is to maintain a reasonable interest rate relationship and support banks in stabilizing their net interest margins, thereby expanding the space for counter-cyclical monetary policy adjustments [4][5].
银行次级债组合有多强?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-19 12:08
Group 1 - The simulated portfolio returns have rebounded this week, with most credit style portfolios outperforming interest rate style portfolios. The weekly returns for secondary ultra-long and city investment ultra-long strategies were 0.34% and 0.28% respectively, while credit style portfolios saw returns of 0.65% and 0.41% for the same strategies [2][14][15] - The recovery in returns has shifted from interest rate and medium-long duration strategies to ultra-long bond strategies. The average weekly return for credit style time deposit heavy portfolios increased by 3.6 basis points to 0.12%, the highest since August, while city investment heavy portfolios rose to 0.22%, an increase of approximately 12.1 basis points [2][16] - The average return for secondary capital bond heavy portfolios increased by nearly 20 basis points, with the secondary bond duration and mixed duration strategies showing weekly returns nearly equal to the ultra-long strategy. The secondary bond bullet strategy has shown a faster recovery, with cumulative negative returns since the third quarter narrowing to -0.36% [2][16] Group 2 - In terms of return sources, the coupon income from various strategy portfolios has declined, while the contribution from capital gains has increased. Among mainstream strategies, the coupon income for secondary bond bullet and duration strategies fell by more than 0.04 basis points, while city investment bonds and bank perpetual bonds maintained annualized coupon rates around 2.24% and 2.26% respectively [3][25] - The capital gains contribution for credit style portfolios accounted for most of the returns this week, with coupon contributions falling within the range of 5% to 30%, further compressing and increasing concentration compared to the previous week [3][25] Group 3 - Over the past four weeks, medium-long duration secondary perpetual strategies have shown cumulative returns at the forefront. The cumulative excess returns for perpetual bond duration, secondary bond bullet, and secondary bond duration strategies were 13 basis points, 11.2 basis points, and 11.1 basis points respectively [4][29] - The medium-long duration secondary perpetual bond strategy has rebounded significantly, but its volatility exceeds that of the downshift strategies. The cumulative return for the secondary bond downshift strategy reached 9.2 basis points, demonstrating both low volatility and strong recovery advantages [4][29] - From a strategy duration perspective, medium-long duration secondary perpetual bonds and ultra-long strategies exhibit stronger offensive attributes. The short-end time deposit strategy's excess returns have dropped to the lowest in three months, lacking aggressiveness in a bond bull market [4][32]
信用抢短债、利率买长债:债牛下半场如何演绎?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-12 13:57
Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the simulated portfolio returns have generally recovered, with absolute returns of interest rate style portfolios outperforming credit style portfolios overall [2][10][14] - In the interest rate style portfolio, the top weekly returns were from the industrial ultra-long and secondary bond duration strategies, recording returns of 0.17% and 0.16% respectively [2][14] - In the credit style portfolio, the leading strategies were the industrial ultra-long and perpetual bond duration strategies, achieving returns of 0.2% and 0.16% respectively [15][2] Group 2 - The average weekly return of the credit style time deposit heavy portfolio increased by 3.5 basis points to 0.09%, reaching the highest absolute level since mid-August [2][16] - The average weekly return of the city investment heavy portfolio rose to 0.1%, similar to the time deposit strategy, with long-duration city investment bonds showing a recovery in the market [2][16] - The ultra-long bond heavy strategy saw a return increase of nearly 25 basis points, with the industrial ultra-long strategy reaching a high return level of 0.2% [2][16] Group 3 - The report highlights that the secondary perpetual bond duration strategy has significant profit potential, with capital gains contributing substantially this week [3][25] - The annualized coupon rate of the perpetual bond duration strategy is around 2.28%, and the distance from the lowest point this year is over 42 basis points [3][25] - The credit style portfolio's returns were primarily driven by capital gains, with coupon contributions falling within the range of 25% to 50% [3][25] Group 4 - In the past four weeks, the recovery signals for excess returns in secondary bond heavy strategies appeared first in bullet-type and down-sinking combinations [4][30] - The cumulative excess returns for city investment short-end sinking, commercial bank bond bullet-type, and brokerage bond duration strategies reached 11.8 basis points, 11.4 basis points, and 8.2 basis points respectively [4][30] - The report notes that medium to long-duration strategies generally yielded excess returns, with the secondary perpetual bond duration strategy achieving excess returns of 4.8 basis points and 5.3 basis points [33][30]
脆弱情绪的度量
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-10 15:24
Group 1: Quantitative Credit Strategy - The duration strategy has continued to perform poorly as of September 30, with the cumulative excess return of the AA+ city investment bonds in a barbell strategy dropping to around -34 basis points [2][12] - The duration strategy for perpetual bonds has shown significant volatility, with cumulative excess returns remaining low at -18 basis points and -30 basis points despite a larger recovery after declines in September [2][12] - In contrast, short-end city investment bonds and bullet-type commercial bank bonds have shown relatively better excess returns [2][12] Group 2: Duration Tracking of Various Bonds - As of September 30, the weighted average transaction durations for city investment bonds and industrial bonds are 1.76 years and 2.22 years, respectively, indicating a defensive characteristic and falling within the 65%-80% historical percentile range since 2021 [3][16] - The weighted average transaction durations for secondary capital bonds, perpetual bonds, and general commercial bank bonds are 3.67 years, 3.70 years, and 1.92 years, respectively, showing a notable decline in their percentile levels [3][16] - Other financial bonds, such as securities company bonds and insurance company bonds, have also shown low historical duration percentiles, with durations of 1.51 years, 1.73 years, 4.11 years, and 1.23 years [3][16] Group 3: Yield Heatmap of Coupon Assets - As of September 29, 2025, yields for non-financial and non-real estate industrial bonds have generally increased, with significant rises exceeding 9.5 basis points for certain private non-perpetual bonds and state-owned enterprise perpetual bonds [4][20] - The yields for financial bonds have also risen, particularly for mid-to-long-term secondary capital bonds and state-owned bank perpetual bonds, which have increased by over 12 basis points [4][20] - Some short-end products have stabilized, with yields for certain city and rural commercial bank bonds showing minimal changes [4][20] Group 4: Long-term Credit Bond Analysis - The spread between active long-term credit bonds and comparable government bonds has reached a 24-year high, with the spread for 10-year bonds widening to a new annual high [5][22] - Despite the apparent advantages of long-term credit bonds post-adjustment, the lack of incremental funding support suggests that duration strategies should remain cautious until market sentiment improves [5][22] Group 5: Local Government Bond Supply and Trading - The latest week has seen a weak sentiment in the bond market, with the average issuance rates for local government bonds continuing to rise, reaching new highs for bonds with maturities of 20 years and above [6][27] - The issuance rates for local government bonds with maturities of 10 years and above have widened to over 20 basis points compared to similar maturity government bonds, indicating a higher percentile reading for the year [6][27]
9月信用,短债为盾二永为矛
HUAXI Securities· 2025-09-02 11:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect was significant. Interest rates first declined and then rose. Credit bond yields generally followed the upward trend of interest - rate bonds. Short - duration varieties were more resistant to decline, while medium - and long - duration ones were weaker. Looking ahead to September, credit bonds still need defensive strategies [1][11][12]. - After the adjustment in August, some bank capital bonds have fallen to show relative value. For example, 3 - year AA and above second - tier capital bonds are oversold, and 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds also have certain value for accounts with different liability characteristics [29][33][37]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 High - Coupon Short - Term Bonds as Shields, Oversold Perpetual and Second - Tier Capital Bonds as Spears 3.1.1 Credit Bond Defense with Short - and Medium - Duration - In August, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect was prominent. Short - end bonds outperformed long - end ones. Credit bond yields generally rose with interest - rate bonds. Short - duration credit bonds were more resistant to decline, and institutions further shortened the duration to within 3 years. The net buying scale of credit bonds decreased, and the trading activity also declined [1][11][12]. - In September, credit bonds need defense. Bank wealth - management scale usually declines at the end of the quarter, reducing the demand for credit bonds. Credit spreads are at a relatively low level, and institutions will pay more attention to controlling drawdowns when investing in credit bonds [16]. - There are two defensive ideas for credit bonds. One is to select high - coupon individual bonds within 3 years. The other is to appropriately allocate defensive varieties such as 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit and 2Y commercial financial bonds, which have certain cost - effectiveness compared with medium - and short - term notes of the same term [3][19][22]. 3.1.2 Bank Capital Bonds: Opportunities Arising from Declines - In August, the yields of bank capital bonds generally rose, and spreads widened. After the adjustment, some varieties showed relative value. For example, 3 - year AA and above second - tier capital bonds were oversold, and the yields of 3 - year AA second - tier capital bonds were equivalent to those of 3 - year AA perpetual bonds [28][29][30]. - The yields of 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds rose significantly in August. As the decline deepened, insurance, wealth - management, and other asset - management products increased their allocation. For accounts with stable liability ends, they are still cost - effective coupon assets. For accounts with unstable liability ends, it is recommended to follow the interest - rate bond market for right - side layout [33][36][37]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds: Supply Recovery, Short - End and Low - Rating Bonds Resistant to Declines - In August, the net financing of urban investment bonds was positive and increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The issuance of long - duration bonds decreased, and the weighted average issuance interest rate increased. The net financing performance varied by province [39]. - The yields of urban investment bonds generally rose in August. Short - end and low - rating bonds were more resistant to decline, while 10 - year ultra - long - term bonds were the weakest. Credit spreads showed differentiation [45]. - The trading activity of urban investment bonds was not high in August. The proportion of TKN and low - valuation transactions decreased compared with July. Short - duration bonds had an increase in trading volume, while 3 - 5 - year bonds had weaker trading [51]. 3.3 Industrial Bonds: Supply Contraction, Yields Generally Rising - In August, the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds decreased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment weakened, and the issuance proportion of short - duration bonds within 1 year decreased, while the proportion of 1 - 3 - year bonds increased. The issuance interest rates rose across the board, with medium - and long - duration bonds having a larger increase [54]. 3.4 Bank Capital Bonds: Net Financing Turns Negative, Trading Sentiment is Weak No detailed content provided in the given text for this part other than the title. It can be inferred from the previous content that in August, the net financing of bank capital bonds may have turned negative, and the trading sentiment was weak as the yields generally rose and spreads widened, and the relative performance was inferior to that of general credit bonds [28].