Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [6][64]. Core Views - The home appliance sector is expected to gradually return to stable growth in both domestic and export sales, driven by high temperatures boosting air conditioning sales domestically, despite export pressures from tariffs and high inventory levels [1][2][18]. - The report highlights a positive trend in major appliance exports, with a narrowing decline in July, particularly in washing machines and vacuum cleaners, which saw growth exceeding 10% [2][23]. - The U.S. home appliance retail market is experiencing a slight decline in sales, but inventory levels are rising, indicating potential benefits for Chinese exporters as U.S. retailers increase stock in response to tariffs [3][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Rating - The home appliance industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [6][64]. 2. Key Research Tracking and Investment Thoughts - July air conditioning sales in China saw a year-on-year increase of 14%, with total sales reaching 16.437 million units, a 1.6% increase year-on-year [1][19]. - Domestic sales of air conditioners were strong at 10.583 million units, up 14.3% year-on-year, while exports fell by 15.5% to 5.854 million units [1][19]. - The report anticipates a return to stable growth in both domestic and export sales as the peak season ends and promotional events approach [1][19]. - The July export value of home appliances decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the nearly 8% decline in previous months [2][23]. - The U.S. home appliance retail sales fell by 1.7% year-on-year in July, with inventory levels rising, indicating a potential opportunity for Chinese exporters [3][33]. 3. Key Data Tracking - The home appliance sector's relative performance was -2.01% this week, with raw material prices for copper and aluminum slightly declining [4][38][41]. - The report notes a decrease in housing construction and sales, with residential construction down 17.3% year-on-year in July [4][51]. - The report provides a list of recommended companies, including Midea Group, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home, all rated as "Outperform the Market" [5][61].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that domestic sales of home appliances showed strong growth in May, while exports faced challenges, with a notable exception for central air conditioning [1] - In May, the year-on-year growth rates for domestic sales of home appliances were as follows: air conditioners 13.4%, refrigerators 13.7%, washing machines 15.2%, televisions -0.9%, range hoods 14.7%, and gas stoves 2.4%. However, central air conditioning saw a 3.0% decline in domestic sales [1] - For external sales, the year-on-year changes were: air conditioners -12.8%, refrigerators -6.4%, washing machines 5.9%, televisions -3.4%, range hoods 3.9%, and gas stoves -12.4%. Central air conditioning experienced a significant 29.0% increase in external sales [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that while domestic sales are robust, external sales are under pressure, with most categories showing weakness except for central air conditioning, which benefits from a low overseas base and proactive market expansion [1] - The outlook for 2025 suggests that domestic subsidies will continue, and external sales may see valuation recovery as tariff expectations stabilize, making consumer spending a key investment theme for the year [1] - The home appliance ETF (159996) is highlighted as a potential area of interest for investors [1]