Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities anticipates a mixed performance in the home appliance sector, with domestic sales under pressure due to policy changes and high base effects, while export sales are expected to perform better due to easing tariff impacts and recovering demand in developed and emerging markets [1] Group 1: Home Appliance Overview - The home appliance sector is experiencing internal performance differentiation, with overall operational resilience [1] - Cost factors include rising raw material prices since 2025, while shipping costs have been decreasing, keeping overall cost impacts manageable [1] - Domestic demand is supported by ongoing national subsidies, with retail sales of home appliances significantly outperforming the broader market [1] - Export growth has faced short-term disruptions from tariffs and high base effects, but leading companies are leveraging global layouts and contributions from emerging markets to maintain resilient export performance [1] - The average dividend yield for the home appliance sector is 3.2%, ranking fourth among 31 primary industries in China, highlighting the sector's attractive dividend characteristics [1] Group 2: White Goods - Domestic sales are expected to see a decline in growth rates in the second half of 2025 due to policy impacts and high base effects, with a forecast of a low-to-high growth pattern in 2026 [2] - If national subsidy policies continue in 2026, they may further enhance domestic demand and market structure [2] - Export sales are projected to improve in 2026, benefiting from lower base effects and easing tariff impacts, with leading companies expected to maintain competitive advantages and improve profitability [2] Group 3: Black Goods - The domestic TV market is undergoing structural optimization, with leading companies driving the adoption of RGB Mini LED products, which are expected to contribute to profit growth [3] - The overseas market, particularly in emerging regions, is expected to grow, with major events like the World Cup boosting demand for TVs [3] - Chinese brands are enhancing their marketing efforts and local channel structures to increase overseas market share and improve product mix [3] Group 4: Small Appliances - Domestic sales of small appliances are expected to be supported by national subsidy policies in early 2025, but demand may weaken as subsidies taper off [4] - The geopolitical situation poses risks to small appliance exports, but Chinese companies are well-positioned to manage tariff impacts due to their strong supply chain capabilities [4] Group 5: Robotic Vacuums - The demand for robotic vacuums remains strong, with the continuation of national subsidy policies in 2026 likely to enhance market penetration and improve profitability for brands [5] - Market share is expected to concentrate among leading brands, with a trend of increasing competition within the industry [5] - The overseas market for robotic vacuums is projected to maintain steady growth, although internal competition is intensifying [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [6][7][14]. Core Views - The home appliance industry is experiencing pressure on both domestic and international sales due to high base effects, with October retail sales down 15% year-on-year. White goods and black goods are expected to see retail sales declines exceeding 20%, while small appliances are performing slightly better [2][3][19]. - In October, the total sales volume of air conditioners in China decreased by 20.1%, with domestic sales down 21.3% and exports down 19.0%. The pressure on production for December remains significant, although export production is expected to improve as the peak season approaches [4][45]. - The report highlights a 13.3% year-on-year decline in home appliance export value in October, with washing machines and vacuum cleaners showing stable performance. The export value of air conditioners fell by 29.3% [5][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, Gree Electric, and Hisense Home Appliances for white goods; Hisense Visual for black goods; and Roborock, Bear Electric, and Ecovacs for small appliances [6][14][15]. 2. Market Performance - The home appliance sector achieved a relative return of +1.47% this week, while the broader market (CSI 300 Index) declined by 3.77% [60]. 3. Retail Demand Analysis - In October, retail sales of home appliances faced significant declines, with major categories like air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines experiencing drops of over 20% in retail value [3][20][19]. 4. Export Performance - The report notes a continued decline in home appliance exports, with a significant drop in air conditioner exports and stable performance in washing machines and vacuum cleaners [5][47]. 5. Production Insights - December air conditioner production is under pressure, with domestic production expected to decline by 22.6% year-on-year, while export production is projected to decrease by 8.2% [4][45]. 6. Key Data Tracking - The report tracks key data such as raw material prices, shipping indices, and real estate performance, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [60][62][76].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [6][7][14]. Core Views - The home appliance industry is experiencing pressure on both domestic and export sales due to high base effects, with October retail sales down 15% and exports down 13% [2][5][19]. - The small appliance segment is performing slightly better compared to larger appliances, with a smaller decline in sales [3][20]. - Air conditioning sales saw a significant drop of 20% in October, with production pressures continuing into December [4][45]. - Despite the challenges, leading companies in the industry are expected to maintain resilience and profitability due to ongoing cost reduction and efficiency improvements [14][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, Gree Electric, and Hisense Home Appliances for white goods; Hisense Visual for black goods; and Roborock, Bear Electric, and Ecovacs for small appliances [6][14][15]. 2. Market Performance - In October, the retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment fell by 14.6% year-on-year, while the overall retail sales in China grew by 2.9% [3][20]. - The report notes a relative performance of +1.47% for the home appliance sector compared to the broader market [5][60]. 3. Sales and Production Data - October saw a 20.1% year-on-year decline in total air conditioning sales, with domestic sales down 21.3% and exports down 19% [4][45]. - The report highlights that the export value of home appliances decreased by 13.3% in October, with washing machines and vacuum cleaners showing stable performance [5][47]. 4. Price Tracking - The report tracks raw material prices, noting a decrease in LME copper and aluminum prices by 1.4% and 2.2% respectively [60][62]. - The cold-rolled steel price increased by 1.9% week-on-week [62]. 5. Company Announcements and Industry Dynamics - The report includes updates on company management changes and highlights industry trends, such as the growth of the sweeping robot market led by Ecovacs [78][82].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [8] Core Insights - The report highlights that the export production of major home appliances (air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines) in November 2025 outperformed domestic sales, with total production of 28.47 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7% [17] - Air conditioner exports showed resilience with a production of 7.46 million units, down 13.8% year-on-year, while domestic production fell by 21.2% to 5.3 million units [17] - Refrigerator production for domestic sales was 3.76 million units, down 10.9% year-on-year, while exports were 4.02 million units, down 1.5% [2][18] - Washing machine exports increased by 5.0% year-on-year to 3.75 million units, while domestic production decreased by 2.6% to 4.18 million units [3][18] - The overall air conditioner export volume for the cold year 2025 reached 88.02 million units, an increase of 12.3% year-on-year, with export value at $16.97 billion, up 13.7% [19] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: November Production Performance - Air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showed stronger export performance compared to domestic sales, with significant production declines in domestic markets due to high inventory and cost pressures [17] - The report attributes the decline in domestic production to factors such as inventory management, high raw material costs, and the impact of previous government subsidy policies [17] 2. Company Announcements - Hisense Home Appliances reported a revenue of 71.533 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, with a net profit of 2.812 billion yuan, up 0.67% [21] - Midea Group's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 was 364.7 billion yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 37.9 billion yuan, up 20% [24] - Haier Smart Home reported a revenue of 234.1 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a 10% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 17.4 billion yuan, up 15% [25] 3. Data Tracking - Raw material prices showed slight increases, with copper and aluminum prices rising by 0.9% and 1.1% respectively as of October 31, 2025 [28] - Shipping rates increased, with the CCFI composite index rising by 2.89% [30] - Real estate data indicated a decline in sales area and construction activity, with year-on-year decreases of 5.5% and 15.3% respectively for the first nine months of 2025 [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry [5][6]. Core Views - The home appliance sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with major appliances under pressure due to high base effects from last year, while small appliances continue to show growth. The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to further boost sales in small appliances [1][12]. - The export value of home appliances in September saw a decline of 9.6%, with air conditioning exports particularly affected, while refrigerators and washing machines showed positive growth [3][40]. - The report highlights the resilience of the home appliance sector despite external challenges, with expectations for continued growth potential in overseas markets as companies expand their global presence [12][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Rating - The home appliance industry is rated as "Outperform" [5]. 2. Market Performance - In September, retail sales of major appliances declined by approximately 20% due to high base effects, while small appliances like rice cookers and air fryers saw growth of 6.1% and 27.7% respectively [1][18]. - The Double Eleven shopping festival has been extended, allowing consumers more time to make purchases, which is expected to benefit sales [2][36]. 3. Export Performance - Home appliance exports fell by 9.6% in September, with air conditioning exports down 23.2%. However, washing machines and vacuum cleaners continued to grow by over 10% [3][40]. - The report notes that the actual overseas sales performance may be better than export figures suggest, as companies are diversifying their production and sales channels [40]. 4. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, and TCL for white goods; Boss Electric for kitchen appliances; and Roborock and Ecovacs for small appliances [4][12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [6][64]. Core Views - The home appliance sector is expected to gradually return to stable growth in both domestic and export sales, driven by high temperatures boosting air conditioning sales domestically, despite export pressures from tariffs and high inventory levels [1][2][18]. - The report highlights a positive trend in major appliance exports, with a narrowing decline in July, particularly in washing machines and vacuum cleaners, which saw growth exceeding 10% [2][23]. - The U.S. home appliance retail market is experiencing a slight decline in sales, but inventory levels are rising, indicating potential benefits for Chinese exporters as U.S. retailers increase stock in response to tariffs [3][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Rating - The home appliance industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [6][64]. 2. Key Research Tracking and Investment Thoughts - July air conditioning sales in China saw a year-on-year increase of 14%, with total sales reaching 16.437 million units, a 1.6% increase year-on-year [1][19]. - Domestic sales of air conditioners were strong at 10.583 million units, up 14.3% year-on-year, while exports fell by 15.5% to 5.854 million units [1][19]. - The report anticipates a return to stable growth in both domestic and export sales as the peak season ends and promotional events approach [1][19]. - The July export value of home appliances decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the nearly 8% decline in previous months [2][23]. - The U.S. home appliance retail sales fell by 1.7% year-on-year in July, with inventory levels rising, indicating a potential opportunity for Chinese exporters [3][33]. 3. Key Data Tracking - The home appliance sector's relative performance was -2.01% this week, with raw material prices for copper and aluminum slightly declining [4][38][41]. - The report notes a decrease in housing construction and sales, with residential construction down 17.3% year-on-year in July [4][51]. - The report provides a list of recommended companies, including Midea Group, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home, all rated as "Outperform the Market" [5][61].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that domestic sales of home appliances showed strong growth in May, while exports faced challenges, with a notable exception for central air conditioning [1] - In May, the year-on-year growth rates for domestic sales of home appliances were as follows: air conditioners 13.4%, refrigerators 13.7%, washing machines 15.2%, televisions -0.9%, range hoods 14.7%, and gas stoves 2.4%. However, central air conditioning saw a 3.0% decline in domestic sales [1] - For external sales, the year-on-year changes were: air conditioners -12.8%, refrigerators -6.4%, washing machines 5.9%, televisions -3.4%, range hoods 3.9%, and gas stoves -12.4%. Central air conditioning experienced a significant 29.0% increase in external sales [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that while domestic sales are robust, external sales are under pressure, with most categories showing weakness except for central air conditioning, which benefits from a low overseas base and proactive market expansion [1] - The outlook for 2025 suggests that domestic subsidies will continue, and external sales may see valuation recovery as tariff expectations stabilize, making consumer spending a key investment theme for the year [1] - The home appliance ETF (159996) is highlighted as a potential area of interest for investors [1]