家电行业周报（25 年第 34 周） 优于大市 7 月空调出货外冷内热，家电出口降幅环比收窄 本周研究跟踪与投资思考：7 月空调内销量在高温天气的带动下同比增长 14%，外销则有所下降。海关数据显示，7 月我国出口额降幅环比收窄至-3%， 主要家电品类表现有所好转。预计后续家电内外销有望逐步回归平稳增长。 7 月空调出货外冷内热，9 月淡季排产承压。产业在线数据显示，7 月我国空 调总销量 1643.7 万台，同比增长 1.6%。其中内销规模 1058.3 万台，同比增 长 14.3%；出口规模 585.4 万台，同比下降 15.5%。内销在 7 月高温天气的 带动下增长依然良好，但外销受海外高基数、库存及美国关税的影响，自 5 月以来出货持续承压。随着空调淡季的临近，8-9 月我国空调排产有所承压。 奥维云网数据显示，9 月空调排产量同比下降 11.9%，其中内销排产 508.2 万台，同比下滑 9.1%；出口排产 478.5 万台，同比下降 14.6%。后续随着大 促季的到来、海外关税预期明朗，我国空调内外销有望回归较为平稳的增长。 证券研究报告 | 2025年08月25日 7 月家电出口额降幅收窄，主要 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that domestic sales of home appliances showed strong growth in May, while exports faced challenges, with a notable exception for central air conditioning [1] - In May, the year-on-year growth rates for domestic sales of home appliances were as follows: air conditioners 13.4%, refrigerators 13.7%, washing machines 15.2%, televisions -0.9%, range hoods 14.7%, and gas stoves 2.4%. However, central air conditioning saw a 3.0% decline in domestic sales [1] - For external sales, the year-on-year changes were: air conditioners -12.8%, refrigerators -6.4%, washing machines 5.9%, televisions -3.4%, range hoods 3.9%, and gas stoves -12.4%. Central air conditioning experienced a significant 29.0% increase in external sales [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that while domestic sales are robust, external sales are under pressure, with most categories showing weakness except for central air conditioning, which benefits from a low overseas base and proactive market expansion [1] - The outlook for 2025 suggests that domestic subsidies will continue, and external sales may see valuation recovery as tariff expectations stabilize, making consumer spending a key investment theme for the year [1] - The home appliance ETF (159996) is highlighted as a potential area of interest for investors [1]