证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 本周研究跟踪与投资思考：10 月家电内外销及 12 月空调排产在高基数下表 现均有所承压。10 月家电社零下降 15%，预计白电、黑电等零售额下降超 20%， 小家电表现略好；10 月家电出口额下降 13%，空调依然承压。 10 月高基数下家电零售需求承压，小家电表现略好。据统计局数据，10 月 我国社会消费品零售总额同比增长 2.9%，累计同比增长 4.3%；家电和音像 器材类限额以上零售额同比下降 14.6%，累计同比增长 20.1%。分品类看， 据奥维云网数据显示，10 月空调零售量同比下降 23.8%，线上/线下零售额 同比分别-23.7%/-48.9%，冰箱线上/线下零售额同比-21.9%/-42.7%，洗衣 机线上/线下零售额同比-19.0%/-39.1%；厨房大电线上线下零售额同样有所 下降。小家电零售额降幅更小，电饭煲线上/线下零售额同比-17.1%/-6.9%， 空气炸锅线上/线下零售额同比-10.1%/+9.8%；扫地机器人线上/线下零售额 同比-34.8%/-1.6%，洗地机线上/线下零售额同比-19.4%/-9.3%。 10 月空调销量下降 2 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 家电行业周报（25 年第 47 周） 优于大市 10 月家电内外销表现承压，12 月空调出口排产降幅收窄 本周研究跟踪与投资思考：10 月家电内外销及 12 月空调排产在高基数下表 现均有所承压。10 月家电社零下降 15%，预计白电、黑电等零售额下降超 20%， 小家电表现略好；10 月家电出口额下降 13%，空调依然承压。 10 月高基数下家电零售需求承压，小家电表现略好。据统计局数据，10 月 我国社会消费品零售总额同比增长 2.9%，累计同比增长 4.3%；家电和音像 器材类限额以上零售额同比下降 14.6%，累计同比增长 20.1%。分品类看， 据奥维云网数据显示，10 月空调零售量同比下降 23.8%，线上/线下零售额 同比分别-23.7%/-48.9%，冰箱线上/线下零售额同比-21.9%/-42.7%，洗衣 机线上/线下零售额同比-19.0%/-39.1%；厨房大电线上线下零售额同样有所 下降。小家电零售额降幅更小，电饭煲线上/线下零售额同比-17.1%/-6.9%， 空气炸锅线上/线下零售额同比-10.1%/+9.8%；扫地机器人线上/线下零售额 同 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [8] Core Insights - The report highlights that the export production of major home appliances (air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines) in November 2025 outperformed domestic sales, with total production of 28.47 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7% [17] - Air conditioner exports showed resilience with a production of 7.46 million units, down 13.8% year-on-year, while domestic production fell by 21.2% to 5.3 million units [17] - Refrigerator production for domestic sales was 3.76 million units, down 10.9% year-on-year, while exports were 4.02 million units, down 1.5% [2][18] - Washing machine exports increased by 5.0% year-on-year to 3.75 million units, while domestic production decreased by 2.6% to 4.18 million units [3][18] - The overall air conditioner export volume for the cold year 2025 reached 88.02 million units, an increase of 12.3% year-on-year, with export value at $16.97 billion, up 13.7% [19] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: November Production Performance - Air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showed stronger export performance compared to domestic sales, with significant production declines in domestic markets due to high inventory and cost pressures [17] - The report attributes the decline in domestic production to factors such as inventory management, high raw material costs, and the impact of previous government subsidy policies [17] 2. Company Announcements - Hisense Home Appliances reported a revenue of 71.533 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, with a net profit of 2.812 billion yuan, up 0.67% [21] - Midea Group's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 was 364.7 billion yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 37.9 billion yuan, up 20% [24] - Haier Smart Home reported a revenue of 234.1 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a 10% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 17.4 billion yuan, up 15% [25] 3. Data Tracking - Raw material prices showed slight increases, with copper and aluminum prices rising by 0.9% and 1.1% respectively as of October 31, 2025 [28] - Shipping rates increased, with the CCFI composite index rising by 2.89% [30] - Real estate data indicated a decline in sales area and construction activity, with year-on-year decreases of 5.5% and 15.3% respectively for the first nine months of 2025 [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry [5][6]. Core Views - The home appliance sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with major appliances under pressure due to high base effects from last year, while small appliances continue to show growth. The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to further boost sales in small appliances [1][12]. - The export value of home appliances in September saw a decline of 9.6%, with air conditioning exports particularly affected, while refrigerators and washing machines showed positive growth [3][40]. - The report highlights the resilience of the home appliance sector despite external challenges, with expectations for continued growth potential in overseas markets as companies expand their global presence [12][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Rating - The home appliance industry is rated as "Outperform" [5]. 2. Market Performance - In September, retail sales of major appliances declined by approximately 20% due to high base effects, while small appliances like rice cookers and air fryers saw growth of 6.1% and 27.7% respectively [1][18]. - The Double Eleven shopping festival has been extended, allowing consumers more time to make purchases, which is expected to benefit sales [2][36]. 3. Export Performance - Home appliance exports fell by 9.6% in September, with air conditioning exports down 23.2%. However, washing machines and vacuum cleaners continued to grow by over 10% [3][40]. - The report notes that the actual overseas sales performance may be better than export figures suggest, as companies are diversifying their production and sales channels [40]. 4. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, and TCL for white goods; Boss Electric for kitchen appliances; and Roborock and Ecovacs for small appliances [4][12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [6][64]. Core Views - The home appliance sector is expected to gradually return to stable growth in both domestic and export sales, driven by high temperatures boosting air conditioning sales domestically, despite export pressures from tariffs and high inventory levels [1][2][18]. - The report highlights a positive trend in major appliance exports, with a narrowing decline in July, particularly in washing machines and vacuum cleaners, which saw growth exceeding 10% [2][23]. - The U.S. home appliance retail market is experiencing a slight decline in sales, but inventory levels are rising, indicating potential benefits for Chinese exporters as U.S. retailers increase stock in response to tariffs [3][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Rating - The home appliance industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [6][64]. 2. Key Research Tracking and Investment Thoughts - July air conditioning sales in China saw a year-on-year increase of 14%, with total sales reaching 16.437 million units, a 1.6% increase year-on-year [1][19]. - Domestic sales of air conditioners were strong at 10.583 million units, up 14.3% year-on-year, while exports fell by 15.5% to 5.854 million units [1][19]. - The report anticipates a return to stable growth in both domestic and export sales as the peak season ends and promotional events approach [1][19]. - The July export value of home appliances decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the nearly 8% decline in previous months [2][23]. - The U.S. home appliance retail sales fell by 1.7% year-on-year in July, with inventory levels rising, indicating a potential opportunity for Chinese exporters [3][33]. 3. Key Data Tracking - The home appliance sector's relative performance was -2.01% this week, with raw material prices for copper and aluminum slightly declining [4][38][41]. - The report notes a decrease in housing construction and sales, with residential construction down 17.3% year-on-year in July [4][51]. - The report provides a list of recommended companies, including Midea Group, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home, all rated as "Outperform the Market" [5][61].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that domestic sales of home appliances showed strong growth in May, while exports faced challenges, with a notable exception for central air conditioning [1] - In May, the year-on-year growth rates for domestic sales of home appliances were as follows: air conditioners 13.4%, refrigerators 13.7%, washing machines 15.2%, televisions -0.9%, range hoods 14.7%, and gas stoves 2.4%. However, central air conditioning saw a 3.0% decline in domestic sales [1] - For external sales, the year-on-year changes were: air conditioners -12.8%, refrigerators -6.4%, washing machines 5.9%, televisions -3.4%, range hoods 3.9%, and gas stoves -12.4%. Central air conditioning experienced a significant 29.0% increase in external sales [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that while domestic sales are robust, external sales are under pressure, with most categories showing weakness except for central air conditioning, which benefits from a low overseas base and proactive market expansion [1] - The outlook for 2025 suggests that domestic subsidies will continue, and external sales may see valuation recovery as tariff expectations stabilize, making consumer spending a key investment theme for the year [1] - The home appliance ETF (159996) is highlighted as a potential area of interest for investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Wanlian Securities indicates that the expansion of subsidy categories in 2025 will continue to support the release of consumer demand, with a notable 24% year-on-year growth in retail sales of home appliances and audio equipment in Q1 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - In Q1 2025, the home appliance sector experienced a rise due to the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy and export initiatives, but faced a decline due to tariff uncertainties, leading to an overall weak performance in the first half of the year [2]. - The total market value of public fund holdings in the home appliance sector was 120.37 billion yuan at the end of Q1 2025, remaining stable compared to Q4 2024, but showing a slight decrease of 0.1% [2]. - The current valuation of the home appliance index is at a low of 13.58 times TTM PE, indicating a high cost-performance ratio for the sector [2]. Group 2: Domestic Sales - The demand for new configurations is weakening, while the demand for replacements is driving growth in domestic sales [3]. - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, but the construction area is expected to decline further in 2025, impacting new housing demand [3]. - The share of second-hand housing transactions is increasing, establishing a solid foundation for replacement demand in home appliances [3]. Group 3: Policy Support - The "old-for-new" policy continues to be a driving force for domestic demand, with a total of 162 billion yuan in central funds allocated in January and April 2025 to support the initiative [4]. - An additional 138 billion yuan in central funds is expected to be distributed in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 [4]. Group 4: Export Outlook - In 2024, the export volume and value of home appliances increased by 20.8% and 14.1% year-on-year, respectively [5]. - From January to May 2025, the export volume and value continued to grow by 6.1% and 2.2% year-on-year, respectively, benefiting from the "export rush" effect [5]. - Despite uncertainties in tariffs, the dependence of China's home appliance exports on the U.S. market is limited, and the trend of increasing penetration in emerging markets is expected to support export resilience [5].