Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates that the home appliance industry is expected to experience a slowdown in growth in 2026 due to high base effects, despite significant benefits from the "old-for-new" policy in 2025. Leading companies are anticipated to outperform the industry due to their channel and brand advantages. Long-term growth in overseas sales is also expected to remain stable, supported by an increase in global market share [1][2]. Summary by Sections 2025 Review - The home appliance sector has shown a cumulative increase of 8.1% year-to-date as of November 28, 2025, ranking 27th among all sectors and underperforming the CSI 300 index by 10.4 percentage points [2]. - The performance of various segments includes: home appliance components (+64.7%), black appliances (+12.6%), lighting equipment (+11.9%), small appliances (+9.5%), kitchen appliances (-0.7%), and white appliances (-1.1%) [2]. - Retail sales of home appliances from January to October 2025 increased by 20.1% year-on-year, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, although growth slowed in September and October due to high base effects. Exports in the same period decreased by 3.4% in USD terms and 2.5% in RMB terms, primarily due to the impact of the US-China trade war, but the decline was manageable, indicating resilience and global competitiveness [2]. 2026 Outlook - Domestic demand is expected to slow down in 2026 due to high base effects from the "old-for-new" policy in 2025, but leading companies are likely to outperform the industry due to their channel and brand advantages. For external sales, companies have adapted to trade policy fluctuations since 2018-2019, and long-term growth in overseas sales is anticipated [3]. - Profitability is expected to remain stable, with manageable cost pressures as copper prices have risen, shipping costs have returned to normal levels, and the exchange rate has shown slight appreciation [3]. - As of November 28, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the home appliance sector increased from 15.1x at the beginning of the year to 17.3x, placing it at the 66th percentile historically since 2016. The proportion of public funds heavily invested in the home appliance sector decreased to 2.5%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, marking a continuous decline over three quarters [3]. 2026 Sub-industry Outlook - White Appliances: Expected to face a slowdown in growth due to high base effects from national subsidies, but overseas sales are projected to remain resilient, benefiting from emerging market demand [4]. - Small Appliances: Continued policy support is expected to improve average prices in kitchen small appliances, with significant growth potential in the overseas market for robotic vacuum cleaners [4]. - Black Appliances: Product structure upgrades are anticipated to enhance average prices and profitability, with continued growth in overseas market share [5]. - Two-Wheelers: The implementation of new regulations in 2026 is expected to sustain industry growth, with leading companies likely to increase their market share as smaller competitors exit the market, and significant opportunities in overseas markets [5].

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，2025年以旧换新效果显著，高基数下预计2026年家电行业增 速放缓，龙头公司有望凭借渠道、品牌优势跑赢行业。从长期看，在全球市场份额提升逻辑支撑下，家 电外销亦有望维持稳健增长。白电业绩稳健增长，具备稳定ROE及高分红优势，推荐美的集团(00300， 000333.SZ)、海尔智家(06690，600690.SH);黑电龙头受益全球份额提升和产品结构升级，推荐海信视像 (600060.SH)、TCL电子(01070);自下而上推荐具备份额提升和品类扩张的九号公司-WD(689009.SH)、石 头科技(688169.SH)。 广发证券主要观点如下： 2025年回顾 板块整体涨幅靠后，板块分化。(1)指数：根据iFinD数据，年初以来(2025.01.01-2025.11.28)，申万家电 累计涨幅8.1%，在全行业中排名第27位，跑输沪深300指数10.4pct。分板块看，家电零部件、黑电、照 明设备、小家电、厨电、白电板块分别同比+64.7%、+12.6%、+11.9%、+9.5%、-0.7%、-1.1%。 (2)基本面：根据统计局数据，2025年1-10月家电社零 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the home appliance sector has significant investment opportunities in 2026, driven by external sales growth and business expansion despite domestic sales pressures [2][12][27] - The home appliance index has increased by 10% year-to-date as of November 24, 2025, indicating a positive market sentiment [7][12] - The report identifies seven key investment themes for the home appliance industry, focusing on government subsidy impacts, external sales opportunities, and technological advancements in product offerings [12][27] Investment Themes - **Theme 1: Impact of National Subsidy Policies** The report notes that the "old-for-new" policy has been enhanced, leading to significant sales boosts. As of September 30, 2025, over 76 million consumers purchased more than 126 million appliances under this policy, potentially generating sales of approximately 430 billion yuan [12][27][30] - **Theme 2: Growth Opportunities in External Sales** Emerging markets show low penetration rates for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, suggesting substantial growth potential. If these markets reach China's average ownership levels, demand could increase by 2.3 times for air conditioners [12][27][33] - **Theme 3: Mini LED and Large Size Penetration** The trend towards Mini LED technology and larger screen sizes is expected to enhance the market share of Chinese black appliance brands. The upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup is anticipated to boost global TV sales, benefiting Chinese brands like TCL and Hisense [12][27][33] - **Theme 4: Electric Bicycle Market Dynamics** The new national standards for electric bicycles are expected to consolidate the market, favoring leading companies. The standards will enhance product quality and profitability, despite short-term inventory pressures [12][27][33] - **Theme 5: Rise of Wet Cleaning Products** The report indicates that the wet cleaning product segment is gaining traction, with market share for leading brands like Ecovacs increasing significantly. However, growth may face challenges due to high base effects from previous subsidies [12][27][33] - **Theme 6: Diversification of Business Operations** Home appliance companies are expanding their business lines, with firms like Midea and Anker exploring new growth avenues through innovative products and services [12][27][33] - **Theme 7: High Dividend Yield Assets** The report emphasizes the strong dividend-paying capabilities of leading home appliance companies, which are expected to enhance shareholder returns as cash flows improve [12][27][33] Company Performance and Valuation - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the sector, highlighting strong cash flow and dividend potential for leaders like Midea, Haier, and Gree [9][10][12] - The home appliance sector's overall market capitalization is reported at approximately 20,256.05 billion yuan, with a circulation market value of 18,086.47 billion yuan [4][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [6][7][14]. Core Views - The home appliance industry is experiencing pressure on both domestic and international sales due to high base effects, with October retail sales down 15% year-on-year. White goods and black goods are expected to see retail sales declines exceeding 20%, while small appliances are performing slightly better [2][3][19]. - In October, the total sales volume of air conditioners in China decreased by 20.1%, with domestic sales down 21.3% and exports down 19.0%. The pressure on production for December remains significant, although export production is expected to improve as the peak season approaches [4][45]. - The report highlights a 13.3% year-on-year decline in home appliance export value in October, with washing machines and vacuum cleaners showing stable performance. The export value of air conditioners fell by 29.3% [5][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, Gree Electric, and Hisense Home Appliances for white goods; Hisense Visual for black goods; and Roborock, Bear Electric, and Ecovacs for small appliances [6][14][15]. 2. Market Performance - The home appliance sector achieved a relative return of +1.47% this week, while the broader market (CSI 300 Index) declined by 3.77% [60]. 3. Retail Demand Analysis - In October, retail sales of home appliances faced significant declines, with major categories like air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines experiencing drops of over 20% in retail value [3][20][19]. 4. Export Performance - The report notes a continued decline in home appliance exports, with a significant drop in air conditioner exports and stable performance in washing machines and vacuum cleaners [5][47]. 5. Production Insights - December air conditioner production is under pressure, with domestic production expected to decline by 22.6% year-on-year, while export production is projected to decrease by 8.2% [4][45]. 6. Key Data Tracking - The report tracks key data such as raw material prices, shipping indices, and real estate performance, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [60][62][76].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [6][7][14]. Core Views - The home appliance industry is experiencing pressure on both domestic and export sales due to high base effects, with October retail sales down 15% and exports down 13% [2][5][19]. - The small appliance segment is performing slightly better compared to larger appliances, with a smaller decline in sales [3][20]. - Air conditioning sales saw a significant drop of 20% in October, with production pressures continuing into December [4][45]. - Despite the challenges, leading companies in the industry are expected to maintain resilience and profitability due to ongoing cost reduction and efficiency improvements [14][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, Gree Electric, and Hisense Home Appliances for white goods; Hisense Visual for black goods; and Roborock, Bear Electric, and Ecovacs for small appliances [6][14][15]. 2. Market Performance - In October, the retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment fell by 14.6% year-on-year, while the overall retail sales in China grew by 2.9% [3][20]. - The report notes a relative performance of +1.47% for the home appliance sector compared to the broader market [5][60]. 3. Sales and Production Data - October saw a 20.1% year-on-year decline in total air conditioning sales, with domestic sales down 21.3% and exports down 19% [4][45]. - The report highlights that the export value of home appliances decreased by 13.3% in October, with washing machines and vacuum cleaners showing stable performance [5][47]. 4. Price Tracking - The report tracks raw material prices, noting a decrease in LME copper and aluminum prices by 1.4% and 2.2% respectively [60][62]. - The cold-rolled steel price increased by 1.9% week-on-week [62]. 5. Company Announcements and Industry Dynamics - The report includes updates on company management changes and highlights industry trends, such as the growth of the sweeping robot market led by Ecovacs [78][82].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [8] Core Insights - The report highlights that the export production of major home appliances (air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines) in November 2025 outperformed domestic sales, with total production of 28.47 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7% [17] - Air conditioner exports showed resilience with a production of 7.46 million units, down 13.8% year-on-year, while domestic production fell by 21.2% to 5.3 million units [17] - Refrigerator production for domestic sales was 3.76 million units, down 10.9% year-on-year, while exports were 4.02 million units, down 1.5% [2][18] - Washing machine exports increased by 5.0% year-on-year to 3.75 million units, while domestic production decreased by 2.6% to 4.18 million units [3][18] - The overall air conditioner export volume for the cold year 2025 reached 88.02 million units, an increase of 12.3% year-on-year, with export value at $16.97 billion, up 13.7% [19] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: November Production Performance - Air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showed stronger export performance compared to domestic sales, with significant production declines in domestic markets due to high inventory and cost pressures [17] - The report attributes the decline in domestic production to factors such as inventory management, high raw material costs, and the impact of previous government subsidy policies [17] 2. Company Announcements - Hisense Home Appliances reported a revenue of 71.533 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, with a net profit of 2.812 billion yuan, up 0.67% [21] - Midea Group's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 was 364.7 billion yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 37.9 billion yuan, up 20% [24] - Haier Smart Home reported a revenue of 234.1 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a 10% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 17.4 billion yuan, up 15% [25] 3. Data Tracking - Raw material prices showed slight increases, with copper and aluminum prices rising by 0.9% and 1.1% respectively as of October 31, 2025 [28] - Shipping rates increased, with the CCFI composite index rising by 2.89% [30] - Real estate data indicated a decline in sales area and construction activity, with year-on-year decreases of 5.5% and 15.3% respectively for the first nine months of 2025 [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry [5][6]. Core Views - The home appliance sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with major appliances under pressure due to high base effects from last year, while small appliances continue to show growth. The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to further boost sales in small appliances [1][12]. - The export value of home appliances in September saw a decline of 9.6%, with air conditioning exports particularly affected, while refrigerators and washing machines showed positive growth [3][40]. - The report highlights the resilience of the home appliance sector despite external challenges, with expectations for continued growth potential in overseas markets as companies expand their global presence [12][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Rating - The home appliance industry is rated as "Outperform" [5]. 2. Market Performance - In September, retail sales of major appliances declined by approximately 20% due to high base effects, while small appliances like rice cookers and air fryers saw growth of 6.1% and 27.7% respectively [1][18]. - The Double Eleven shopping festival has been extended, allowing consumers more time to make purchases, which is expected to benefit sales [2][36]. 3. Export Performance - Home appliance exports fell by 9.6% in September, with air conditioning exports down 23.2%. However, washing machines and vacuum cleaners continued to grow by over 10% [3][40]. - The report notes that the actual overseas sales performance may be better than export figures suggest, as companies are diversifying their production and sales channels [40]. 4. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, and TCL for white goods; Boss Electric for kitchen appliances; and Roborock and Ecovacs for small appliances [4][12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [6][64]. Core Views - The home appliance sector is expected to gradually return to stable growth in both domestic and export sales, driven by high temperatures boosting air conditioning sales domestically, despite export pressures from tariffs and high inventory levels [1][2][18]. - The report highlights a positive trend in major appliance exports, with a narrowing decline in July, particularly in washing machines and vacuum cleaners, which saw growth exceeding 10% [2][23]. - The U.S. home appliance retail market is experiencing a slight decline in sales, but inventory levels are rising, indicating potential benefits for Chinese exporters as U.S. retailers increase stock in response to tariffs [3][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Rating - The home appliance industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [6][64]. 2. Key Research Tracking and Investment Thoughts - July air conditioning sales in China saw a year-on-year increase of 14%, with total sales reaching 16.437 million units, a 1.6% increase year-on-year [1][19]. - Domestic sales of air conditioners were strong at 10.583 million units, up 14.3% year-on-year, while exports fell by 15.5% to 5.854 million units [1][19]. - The report anticipates a return to stable growth in both domestic and export sales as the peak season ends and promotional events approach [1][19]. - The July export value of home appliances decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the nearly 8% decline in previous months [2][23]. - The U.S. home appliance retail sales fell by 1.7% year-on-year in July, with inventory levels rising, indicating a potential opportunity for Chinese exporters [3][33]. 3. Key Data Tracking - The home appliance sector's relative performance was -2.01% this week, with raw material prices for copper and aluminum slightly declining [4][38][41]. - The report notes a decrease in housing construction and sales, with residential construction down 17.3% year-on-year in July [4][51]. - The report provides a list of recommended companies, including Midea Group, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home, all rated as "Outperform the Market" [5][61].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that domestic sales of home appliances showed strong growth in May, while exports faced challenges, with a notable exception for central air conditioning [1] - In May, the year-on-year growth rates for domestic sales of home appliances were as follows: air conditioners 13.4%, refrigerators 13.7%, washing machines 15.2%, televisions -0.9%, range hoods 14.7%, and gas stoves 2.4%. However, central air conditioning saw a 3.0% decline in domestic sales [1] - For external sales, the year-on-year changes were: air conditioners -12.8%, refrigerators -6.4%, washing machines 5.9%, televisions -3.4%, range hoods 3.9%, and gas stoves -12.4%. Central air conditioning experienced a significant 29.0% increase in external sales [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that while domestic sales are robust, external sales are under pressure, with most categories showing weakness except for central air conditioning, which benefits from a low overseas base and proactive market expansion [1] - The outlook for 2025 suggests that domestic subsidies will continue, and external sales may see valuation recovery as tariff expectations stabilize, making consumer spending a key investment theme for the year [1] - The home appliance ETF (159996) is highlighted as a potential area of interest for investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Wanlian Securities indicates that the expansion of subsidy categories in 2025 will continue to support the release of consumer demand, with a notable 24% year-on-year growth in retail sales of home appliances and audio equipment in Q1 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - In Q1 2025, the home appliance sector experienced a rise due to the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy and export initiatives, but faced a decline due to tariff uncertainties, leading to an overall weak performance in the first half of the year [2]. - The total market value of public fund holdings in the home appliance sector was 120.37 billion yuan at the end of Q1 2025, remaining stable compared to Q4 2024, but showing a slight decrease of 0.1% [2]. - The current valuation of the home appliance index is at a low of 13.58 times TTM PE, indicating a high cost-performance ratio for the sector [2]. Group 2: Domestic Sales - The demand for new configurations is weakening, while the demand for replacements is driving growth in domestic sales [3]. - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, but the construction area is expected to decline further in 2025, impacting new housing demand [3]. - The share of second-hand housing transactions is increasing, establishing a solid foundation for replacement demand in home appliances [3]. Group 3: Policy Support - The "old-for-new" policy continues to be a driving force for domestic demand, with a total of 162 billion yuan in central funds allocated in January and April 2025 to support the initiative [4]. - An additional 138 billion yuan in central funds is expected to be distributed in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 [4]. Group 4: Export Outlook - In 2024, the export volume and value of home appliances increased by 20.8% and 14.1% year-on-year, respectively [5]. - From January to May 2025, the export volume and value continued to grow by 6.1% and 2.2% year-on-year, respectively, benefiting from the "export rush" effect [5]. - Despite uncertainties in tariffs, the dependence of China's home appliance exports on the U.S. market is limited, and the trend of increasing penetration in emerging markets is expected to support export resilience [5].