家电行业周报（25 年第 34 周） 优于大市 7 月空调出货外冷内热，家电出口降幅环比收窄 本周研究跟踪与投资思考：7 月空调内销量在高温天气的带动下同比增长 14%，外销则有所下降。海关数据显示，7 月我国出口额降幅环比收窄至-3%， 主要家电品类表现有所好转。预计后续家电内外销有望逐步回归平稳增长。 7 月空调出货外冷内热，9 月淡季排产承压。产业在线数据显示，7 月我国空 调总销量 1643.7 万台，同比增长 1.6%。其中内销规模 1058.3 万台，同比增 长 14.3%；出口规模 585.4 万台，同比下降 15.5%。内销在 7 月高温天气的 带动下增长依然良好，但外销受海外高基数、库存及美国关税的影响，自 5 月以来出货持续承压。随着空调淡季的临近，8-9 月我国空调排产有所承压。 奥维云网数据显示，9 月空调排产量同比下降 11.9%，其中内销排产 508.2 万台，同比下滑 9.1%；出口排产 478.5 万台，同比下降 14.6%。后续随着大 促季的到来、海外关税预期明朗，我国空调内外销有望回归较为平稳的增长。 证券研究报告 | 2025年08月25日 7 月家电出口额降幅收窄，主要 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that domestic sales of home appliances showed strong growth in May, while exports faced challenges, with a notable exception for central air conditioning [1] - In May, the year-on-year growth rates for domestic sales of home appliances were as follows: air conditioners 13.4%, refrigerators 13.7%, washing machines 15.2%, televisions -0.9%, range hoods 14.7%, and gas stoves 2.4%. However, central air conditioning saw a 3.0% decline in domestic sales [1] - For external sales, the year-on-year changes were: air conditioners -12.8%, refrigerators -6.4%, washing machines 5.9%, televisions -3.4%, range hoods 3.9%, and gas stoves -12.4%. Central air conditioning experienced a significant 29.0% increase in external sales [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that while domestic sales are robust, external sales are under pressure, with most categories showing weakness except for central air conditioning, which benefits from a low overseas base and proactive market expansion [1] - The outlook for 2025 suggests that domestic subsidies will continue, and external sales may see valuation recovery as tariff expectations stabilize, making consumer spending a key investment theme for the year [1] - The home appliance ETF (159996) is highlighted as a potential area of interest for investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Wanlian Securities indicates that the expansion of subsidy categories in 2025 will continue to support the release of consumer demand, with a notable 24% year-on-year growth in retail sales of home appliances and audio equipment in Q1 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - In Q1 2025, the home appliance sector experienced a rise due to the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy and export initiatives, but faced a decline due to tariff uncertainties, leading to an overall weak performance in the first half of the year [2]. - The total market value of public fund holdings in the home appliance sector was 120.37 billion yuan at the end of Q1 2025, remaining stable compared to Q4 2024, but showing a slight decrease of 0.1% [2]. - The current valuation of the home appliance index is at a low of 13.58 times TTM PE, indicating a high cost-performance ratio for the sector [2]. Group 2: Domestic Sales - The demand for new configurations is weakening, while the demand for replacements is driving growth in domestic sales [3]. - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, but the construction area is expected to decline further in 2025, impacting new housing demand [3]. - The share of second-hand housing transactions is increasing, establishing a solid foundation for replacement demand in home appliances [3]. Group 3: Policy Support - The "old-for-new" policy continues to be a driving force for domestic demand, with a total of 162 billion yuan in central funds allocated in January and April 2025 to support the initiative [4]. - An additional 138 billion yuan in central funds is expected to be distributed in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 [4]. Group 4: Export Outlook - In 2024, the export volume and value of home appliances increased by 20.8% and 14.1% year-on-year, respectively [5]. - From January to May 2025, the export volume and value continued to grow by 6.1% and 2.2% year-on-year, respectively, benefiting from the "export rush" effect [5]. - Despite uncertainties in tariffs, the dependence of China's home appliance exports on the U.S. market is limited, and the trend of increasing penetration in emerging markets is expected to support export resilience [5].