证券研究报告 | 2026年01月07日 2026年01月08日 1. 货币-信用"风火轮"：宽货币下信用持续宽松 信用方面，11 月我国新增社融 24888 亿元，高于万得一致调查值（20191 亿 元）。其中新增人民币贷款 3900 亿元,低于万得一致调查值（5043 亿元）。 信用脉冲环比基本持平，前期小幅回落态势得到缓和，信用扩张动能保持稳 定。当前格局延续"宽货币+宽信用"的组合，资金面趋紧风险较低，整体 金融条件仍对宏观与资产表现形成托底。 2. 下一阶段大类资产价格展望 沪指连阳点燃春季行情，慢牛假设持续验证。12 月主要股指全线上扬，进一 步夯实"上证慢牛"的共识，整体成长优于价值，小盘优于大盘。中证 500 在 ETF 增量资金推动下领涨，市场风格从微盘+红利价值的哑铃型转向中盘 占优的橄榄型。宏观层面，12 月 PMI 及内外需指标的超季节性反弹，经济 下行风险有限。资金层面，保险开门红叠加人民币升值驱动外资回流，提供 充裕的增量动能。2 月春节前反弹是 A 股胜率最高的日历特征，3 月两会或 审议十五五正式稿，政策催化有望增强。板块轮动、主题活跃或延续。2025 年以科技为核心的"牛市 ...

水到渠成，万舸争腾——A 股 2026 年度投资策略 20251228 摘要 2025 年策略"源头活水，漫流在望"逐步兑现，AI 应用、机器人、新 消费、供给侧改革等领域在一季度至三季度相继爆发，四季度市场进入 震荡整固期。 预计全球货币和财政政策将维持宽松，美国或进一步降息扩表，利好股 票、商品和黄金。AI 投资对美国经济贡献接近个人消费支出，宽货币宽 信用环境下将持续增长。 国内经济转型关键在于政策支持高新技术制造业、新型消费及反内卷方 向。预计盈利温和复苏、估值温和扩张及资金面温和进入股市，推动慢 牛行情。 重点关注自主可控（芯片、材料）与全球产业链共振（机器人、商用航 天），加速成长方向（光模块、电芯、有色金属），资源品上升及供需 改善机会（电芯板块、化工）。 全球宏观经济主要矛盾在于从宽货币到宽信用的转变，利好股票和商品 市场。国内政策支持高新技术产业，出口具韧性，制造业向好，预计 2026 年权益市场盈利实现个位数增长。 Q&A 您对 2026 年的市场展望是什么？ 我们对 2026 年的市场展望非常乐观，认为市场将从流动性宽松逐渐转向盈利 兑现行情。在盈利兑现和景气扩散过程中，除了科技股外，中 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that on September 15, 2025, the Hong Kong stock market saw a total trading volume of HKD 290.19 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 14.473 billion. The three major stock indices in Hong Kong experienced an upward trend, primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, including a meeting between China and the U.S. in Madrid on September 14, 2025, discussing trade issues, which boosted market sentiment [1][4][7] - The report indicates that the market anticipates a 100% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with a 94.2% chance of a 25 basis point reduction, which is expected to enhance global liquidity and positively impact the Hong Kong stock market [1][4][7] - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to reach new highs, driven by three core directions: the potential growth in AI technology and new consumption, continuous inflows of southbound funds, and the impact of U.S. rate cuts on global liquidity [7][8][9] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.22% to 26,446.56, the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.91% to 6,043.61, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 0.21% to 9,384.76. In contrast, the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index saw a decline of 0.16% [4][7] - The report highlights that within the industry sectors, the top performers included Comprehensive (+7.69%), Coal (+2.45%), and Power Equipment & New Energy (+2.24%), while the worst performers were Steel (-1.58%), Light Industry Manufacturing (-1.47%), and Nonferrous Metals (-1.18%) [4][7] - The report also mentions that the automotive sector benefited from a new initiative by the China Automotive Industry Association aimed at standardizing payment practices, which is expected to support small and medium enterprises and stabilize the industry chain [7][8]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the banking industry in China, particularly the trends in deposit rates and the behavior of depositors in response to macroeconomic conditions [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Activity and Deposit Behavior** - The decline in economic activity has led to reduced consumer spending and corporate investment willingness. Despite falling deposit rates, the macroeconomic situation has not significantly improved, resulting in a low-risk appetite among residents who prefer fixed-term deposits [1][2]. 2. **Impact of Deposit Rates on Fixed-Term Deposits** - Current fixed-term deposit rates in China are around 1%. Historical data from Japan indicates that fixed-term deposits only significantly decline when rates fall below 0.5%. Therefore, the trend towards fixed-term deposits is expected to continue despite lower rates [1][3]. 3. **Future Trends in Fixed-Term Deposits** - A large volume of three-year fixed-term deposits is set to mature in 2025, with an estimated total of 89 trillion yuan. It is anticipated that most of these funds will be reinvested into new fixed-term products due to limited improvement in fundamentals and the attractiveness of other investment channels [5][12]. 4. **Factors Influencing Deposit Base Growth** - The growth of the deposit base is influenced by several factors: the effectiveness of monetary easing, declining risk appetite among residents, poor performance of other asset classes, and profits remitted by the central bank to enterprises and residents [7][8]. 5. **Long-Term Deposit Preferences** - Residents, particularly those with lower risk tolerance, such as older individuals, are more inclined to choose longer-term fixed deposits. This preference is reflected in the current inversion of interest rates between three to five-year terms and one-year terms [5][6]. 6. **Asymmetric Rate Adjustments** - There is an asymmetric adjustment in interest rates across different terms, with larger adjustments seen in three and five-year terms. This is a response to the current market environment and changing risk preferences [6]. 7. **Historical Context of Deposit Trends** - The increase in fixed-term deposit ratios since 2018 is attributed to declining economic activity, with both residents and enterprises opting for fixed deposits as a safer investment. This trend has persisted despite fluctuations in the broader economic environment [9][10]. 8. **Lessons from Japan's Low-Rate Environment** - Japan's experience shows that even in a prolonged low-rate environment, the overall savings scale does not significantly decrease. This suggests that in a weak economy with limited investment options, individuals will continue to save rather than invest elsewhere [11]. 9. **Banking Sector Implications** - The maturity of fixed-term deposits will have some impact on banks' asset allocation strategies, but the overall effect is expected to be limited. A portion of maturing deposits may be converted to demand deposits, but this does not necessarily translate into a shift towards other business areas [12]. Other Important Insights - The records highlight the importance of understanding depositor behavior in the context of macroeconomic conditions and interest rate trends. The insights drawn from Japan's experience may provide valuable guidance for navigating similar challenges in the Chinese market [11].