Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Gold's price has corrected on the chart. In January, precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility due to uncertainties such as the impact of US economic data on Fed policies and geopolitical situations in South America. It is recommended to pay attention to volatility changes and for long - position investors to buy at low prices [1] - For silver, there may be a correction risk due to potential passive selling from the global commodity index rebalancing in the short term. In a high - volatility market, it is advisable to keep a light long - position and use options to lock in profits [1] - The trends of platinum and palladium may gradually stabilize. With the strong performance of the outer - market, the price center of platinum is gradually rising, and a low - buying strategy is recommended. Palladium's fundamentals are relatively weaker and it tends to follow the market. The platinum - palladium ratio is expected to rise further, and investors can choose the right time for hedging arbitrage [1] Group 3: Market Data Summaries Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 977.56 yuan/gram on December 31, down 0.74% from the previous day [1] - AG2602 contract closed at 17,074 yuan/kilogram on December 31, down 5.88% from the previous day [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 527.25 yuan/gram on December 31, down 10.61% from the previous day [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 425.20 yuan/gram on December 31, down 4.97% from the previous day [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4341.90 on January 2, up 0.23% from December 31 [1] - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 72.27 on January 2, up 1.81% from December 31 [1] - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2161.80 dollars/ounce on January 2, up 4.43% from December 31 [1] - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1695.50 on January 2, up 2.08% from December 31 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at 4332.51 on the current day, up 0.33% from the previous day [1] - London silver was at 72.82 on the current day, up 1.74% from the previous day [1] - Spot platinum was at 2132.00 dollars/ounce on the current day, down 4.22% from the previous day [1] - Spot palladium was at 1641.00 on the current day, down 1.14% from the previous day [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 974.39 yuan/gram on the current day, down 0.80% from the previous day [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 17,059 yuan/kilogram on the current day, down 5.85% from the previous day [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 512 yuan/gram on the current day, down 9.49% from the previous day [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 3.17, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 46.10% [1] - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 15, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 60.60% [1] - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 0.39, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 77.40% [1] - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.56, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 97.00% [1] Ratios - COMEX gold/silver ratio was 60.08, down 1.56% from the previous day [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold/silver ratio was 57.25, up 5.46% from the previous day [1] - NYMEX platinum/silver ratio was 1.28, up 2.31% from the previous day [1] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum/palladium ratio was 1.24, down 5.94% from the previous day [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.19%, up 0.2% from the previous day [1] - 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47%, unchanged from the previous day [1] - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.94%, up 0.5% from the previous day [1] - US dollar index was 98.46, up 0.21% from the previous day [1] - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9699, down 0.15% from the previous day [1] Inventory and Positions - Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 97,704, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 691,638 kilograms, down 8.48% from the previous day [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 36,402,970, up 0.41% from the previous day [1] - COMEX silver inventory was 449,773,368, up 0.08% from the previous day [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19,361,515, unchanged from the previous day [1] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 127,264,198, down 0.70% from the previous day [1] - SPRD gold ETF position was 1065, down 0.51% from the previous day [1] - SLV silver ETF position was 16,444, unchanged from the previous day [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The underlying logic of both inter - period arbitrage and hedging arbitrage in the energy - chemical sector remains valid, but due to the diversification of capital sources and changes in trading paths, the manifestation of the underlying logic has begun to diverge. For inter - period arbitrage, market trading of expected market conditions has led to abnormal monthly structures and counter - intuitive market conditions such as bearish cash - and - carry arbitrage. For cross - variety hedging arbitrage, since the logics of energy - chemical commodities tend to be consistent, path trading without an end - point anchor is counter - productive, while the path optimization strategy following the end - point is still the optimal solution at present. In 2026, most energy - chemical commodities are moving from significant losses to the path of loss - capacity clearance, and some commodity fundamentals are starting to diverge. Adhering to the underlying logic, energy - chemical arbitrage strategies still have great potential [47]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Energy - Chemical Arbitrage Basic Forms 1.1 Inter - period Arbitrage - It is also known as monthly spread arbitrage, which focuses on the price strength relationship between different contracts of the same variety, ignoring the absolute price. The main participants are some spot - futures traders and institutions. The pricing factors include the cost curve, supply - demand premium, and macro - premium. The cost curve is mainly determined by the cost of naphtha or crude oil. The supply - demand premium means that the tighter the supply - demand, the higher the near - end premium. The macro - premium is more directly reflected in the far - end, and with the increase in the relative pricing thickness of macro expectations in recent years, bullish reverse arbitrage and bearish cash - and - carry arbitrage have alternated [8]. 1.2 Hedging Arbitrage - Also called cross - variety arbitrage, its influencing factors are relatively complex. It can be divided into industrial chain profit hedging arbitrage and cross - variety arbitrage according to industrial chain differences. It can be carried out through supply - side and demand - side lines. The essence of the hedging logic is to hedge the cost - side disturbances [11]. 1.3 Cross - market Arbitrage - In recent years, domestic - foreign arbitrage has become another mainstream in the energy - chemical market, but it involves specific logistics. Since it is essentially about realizing profits from regional arbitrage windows through logistics, it is not discussed in detail in this report [12]. 2. Changes in the Characteristics of the Energy - Chemical Sector - In 2025, the contradictions in the energy - chemical sector were too consistent, and most varieties' logics tended to compress industrial profits until negative feedback from the supply - side. It was difficult to capture differences in static balance sheets for arbitrage hedging. Only some varieties, such as the PX industry, showed differences. When the end - point logic did not work, the difficulty of path arbitrage hedging increased significantly. Also, the rapid expansion of total funds in the futures market in the past few years has made the "more money than goods" logic a major obstacle to end - point trading. Cost support is often difficult to use as a starting point for arbitrage, and there are "valuation traps" [13][16]. 3. Reflection and Summary of Energy - Chemical Arbitrage 3.1 Inter - period Arbitrage Summary - **Inter - period Arbitrage Logic**: In the monthly spread pricing model, in addition to cost and macro factors, supply - demand pricing is crucial. Different months' supply - demand premiums can be divided into expected pricing and real - world pricing. When pure expectations drive monthly spread changes, abnormal structures may appear, but as time approaches the corresponding contracts, these structures tend to turn into fully positive or fully negative structures. The bearish cash - and - carry arbitrage logic is triggered when the current commodity is in a weak supply - demand state, and the far - end macro - premium tends to zero under major negative factors, along with negative feedback from the near - end supply - side [22][24][27]. - **Inter - period Arbitrage Logic at the Fundamental Inflection Point**: When a commodity contract is in a situation of turnaround from a difficult situation or decline from prosperity, the market's willingness to hold goods, reflected in the basis, is more important than inventory. The contradiction in the static balance sheet is the underlying support for the reversal amplitude [29][31]. - **Bad Warehouse Receipt Pricing Logic**: The so - called "bad warehouse receipts" usually refer to the situation where the delivery cost increases due to regional price differences, resulting in the futures price being at a discount to the mainstream spot price. By artificially separating the pricing benchmarks of different warehouse receipts, the positive - carry inter - period logic can be incorporated into the original framework [32][33]. - **Monthly Spread Pricing End - point**: The issue of monthly spread pricing end - point is about how to take profits in inter - period strategies. For expected market conditions, the end - point is when the spot basis weakens to a risk - free level. For real - world realized inter - period arbitrage, the end - point is usually when the spot price turns, and the futures price often trades the spot price turn in advance. In this case, the near - end contract can be treated as a single - sided strategy [34]. 3.2 Hedging Arbitrage Summary - **Cost Hedging**: Strategies such as buying coal and shorting oil or vice versa lost their alpha in 2025 due to the simultaneous decline of oil and coal, and the cost logic of many energy - chemical varieties weakened. Since the market participation is currently limited, this type of arbitrage is no longer elaborated [38]. - **Fundamental Hedging**: The cross - variety hedging strategy dominated by fundamentals is essentially a judgment of the fundamental strength of two or more varieties, which is ultimately based on the supply - demand of the varieties themselves. It includes industrial chain profit hedging and pure variety strength - weakness hedging. For the former, it is necessary to beware of the "valuation trap" and it is advisable to wait for right - side signals. The latter is more based on the respective fundamentals [40]. - **Hedging End - point and Path Optimization**: In cross - variety arbitrage, there are two forms: static balance sheet form and dynamic path form. In the context of consistent energy - chemical contradictions, path trading is difficult to implement and may bring additional risks. Cross - variety hedging arbitrage should follow principles such as end - point support, handling path deviations, and paying attention to volatility [42][45][46]. - **Hedging Exposure Issue**: It is impossible to completely hedge the raw material risk in hedging arbitrage. When constructing relevant strategies, there is usually a certain long - exposure to crude oil. In the context of large fluctuations in crude oil prices, it is advisable to overweight the leg with smaller fluctuations [46]. 4. Summary - The underlying logic of energy - chemical arbitrage remains valid, but its manifestation has changed. In 2026, with the differentiation of some commodity fundamentals, energy - chemical arbitrage strategies still have great potential [47].

Core Insights - The interview highlights the success of He Ran, who won the championship in the hedging arbitrage group of the national futures (options) trading competition, emphasizing the importance of adhering to one's trading strategy despite market fluctuations [1] Group 1: Trading Philosophy and Strategy - He Ran attributes his success to the principle of "sticking to one's strategy," which helped him navigate through significant profit drawdowns and periods without gains during the competition [1] - His trading approach focuses on swing trading and arbitrage, primarily utilizing cross-commodity arbitrage in stock index futures and hedging arbitrage in options, capitalizing on the considerable profit potential in a volatile market [1] Group 2: Risk Management and Emotional Control - He Ran has established clear trading principles, using K-line breakthroughs as critical references for opening positions, stop-loss, and take-profit decisions [2] - He emphasizes strict adherence to stop-loss rules, such as a maximum loss of 0.5% per trade and a daily drawdown limit of 3%, which he believes is essential for protecting capital [2] - He Ran acknowledges the impact of emotions like anxiety, greed, and fear on trading decisions and advises distancing oneself from the market during negative emotional states to avoid larger losses [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Advice for New Traders - He Ran views his recent competition success as a new starting point, focusing on strategy optimization rather than short-term rankings, aiming for long-term stable profits [2] - He offers practical advice for novice traders, recommending starting with simulated trading to achieve stable profits before transitioning to real trading with small capital, while prioritizing capital protection [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry - wide investment rating. However, it offers individual outlooks for each energy and chemical product, which can be summarized as follows based on the rating standard: - **Oscillating**: PX, PTA, short - fiber, polyester bottle - chips, methanol, urea, LLDPE, PP, PL, PVC, caustic soda [11][12][18][19][22][25][26][27][29] - **Oscillating Weakly**: crude oil, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, pure benzene, styrene, ethylene glycol [6][7][9][10][13][14][16] 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil price is in a volatile pattern during the National Day holiday. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and geopolitical factors still cause disruptions. The rebound space of crude oil is limited due to the weakening crack spread of refined oil [1][2]. - The prices of basic chemical products changed little during the National Day holiday. The industrial chain lacks a clear trend due to the volatile crude oil and the low valuation of chemicals. Investors can try positive spreads for severely loss - making products [2]. - Different energy and chemical products have different market trends. For example, asphalt prices are under pressure due to the expected increase in production; high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils follow the trend of crude oil; methanol shows a slight inventory build - up during the holiday and oscillates [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Crude Oil - **Market News**: EIA raises the 2025 and 2026 US oil production forecasts. OPEC+ eight oil - producing countries will further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. There are ongoing conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, and the Hamas reaches an agreement to end the Gaza war [6]. - **Main Logic**: During the holiday, oil prices first fell and then rose. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the supply surplus pressure remains. The conflict between Palestine and Israel eases, and the geopolitical disturbances are mainly from the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The US commercial crude oil inventory and production increase, and the refinery operating rate rises. If geopolitical disturbances weaken, the oil price center may move down [7]. 3.2 Situation of Other Energy and Chemical Products - **Asphalt**: The expected increase in production puts pressure on asphalt futures prices. The geopolitical premium declines, and the supply tension eases. The asphalt price is over - valued compared to other products [9]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The premium turns negative, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand has some improvement, but the major drivers are weakening [10]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: It oscillates weakly following crude oil. It faces pressure at the 3500 level, and there are supply and demand challenges [10]. - **Methanol**: The inventory slightly accumulates during the holiday. The inland inventory pressure is limited, but the port inventory pressure is high. There may be short - term low - buying opportunities [22]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern is loose. The impact of the Indian tender during the holiday is limited, and the short - term fundamentals are weak. The market may oscillate and wait for policy adjustments and the progress of autumn sowing [23]. - **PX**: The supply increases while the demand is weak, and the processing fee is under pressure. The inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in November and December [11]. - **PTA**: The cost side stabilizes, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The mid - term inventory accumulation is expected [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply pressure is large during the National Day due to smooth device restarts. The port arrival volume increases, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - **Short - fiber**: The cost guidance and self - supply - demand drive are limited. The inventory and profit remain within a certain range [18]. - **Polyester Bottle - chips**: Attention should be paid to whether factories strictly follow the production - cut plan after profit repair. The processing fee expansion space is limited [19]. - **Styrene**: The cost support gradually appears, but the high inventory of upstream and downstream is difficult to reduce. The profit is at a low level, and one can try to widen the profit [15]. - **LLDPE**: There are geopolitical disturbances during the holiday. The impact of oil prices on the opening of polyolefins is limited. The fundamental support is weak, and it is advisable to hold short positions [25]. - **PP**: OPEC+ increases production, and oil prices fluctuate widely during the holiday. The supply side has an incremental trend, and the inventory pressure exists. It oscillates in the short term [26]. - **PL**: Some devices stop during the holiday, and the market trading atmosphere is cautious. The volatility may increase [27]. - **PVC**: The fundamental pressure exists. The upstream production is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is stable. The cost change is expected to be small [29]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price may continue to be weak. Attention should be paid to downstream stocking and upstream production changes [29]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent M1 - M2 at 0.37 with a change of 0.07, and PX 1 - 5 months at - 40 with a change of - 8 [31]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each product has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For example, the basis of asphalt is 76 with a change of 42, and the warehouse receipt is 44,430 [32]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are different inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA at - 132 with a change of 42, and 1 - month TA - EG at 387 with a change of - 41 [34]. 3.4 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of commodities is 2224.82, down 0.46%; the commodity 20 index is 2499.78, down 0.42%; the industrial products index is 2219.36, down 0.85% [276]. - The energy index on September 30, 2025, is 1199.36, with a daily decline of 2.25%, a 5 - day decline of 0.27%, a 1 - month decline of 1.59%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.33% [278].