转眼又到4月中旬，基金的一季报逐渐进入披露季。 中庚基金依然是最早披露季报的基金公司之一，丘栋荣一季度的调仓动作随之浮出水面。 总体来讲，丘栋荣的基金业绩在今年以来依然非常稳—— 包括新基中庚港股通价值在内的5只基金均取得了正收益；表现最好的中庚小盘价值，今年以来的回报超过了10%。 | 基金名称 | 其余菜型 | 合并规模 | 任职时间 | 任职回报 | 任职年化 | 今年以来 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | (%) | (%) | (%) | | 中庚港股通价值18个月封闭股票 | 股票苹 | 19.78 | 2023/1/11 | 0.53 | | 0.53 | | 中庚价值品质一年持有期混合 | 混合型-偏股 | 67.31 | 2021/1/19 | 59.84 | 23.41 | 7.25 | | 中庚价值灵动灵活配置混合 | 混合型-灵活 | 34.28 | 2019/7/16 | 129.64 | 24.85 | 7.36 | | 中庚小盘价值股票 | 股票在 | 86.77 | 2019/4/3 | 1 ...

超过52%的ETF投资者坚持波段操作。 | 作者 | | 紫枫 | | --- | --- | --- | | 编辑 | | 小白 | 我们继续来解读由国泰海通证券、景顺长城、同花顺和财联社联合发表的《ETF客户投资行为洞察报 告》，发布时间是今年4月份。 这份报告有一些有趣的ETF操作策略，我认为值得单独开一篇文章来解释。 再次强调一下，虽然这份报告的数据截至于2024年末，但 这份报告的部分数据是来源于国泰海通证 券、同花顺平台的交易数据 ，还有一部分来自于财联社和基金公司的调研。 因此风云君认为，该报告的数据和结论具有一定的参考意义，揭示了ETF投资者这一群体的交易特征 和交易状况。 注意，本文所用的数据基本来源于这篇报告，图片下方不再标注来源。 波段操作是 ETF 的主流交易方式 大家好不好奇，其他人是怎么炒ETF的呢？ 根据报告，有多达36%的人采取波段操作的方式，即低买高卖。 随后，从9月25日至今，科创50ETF从高位回落了7.6%，份额又增长了14%。 值得一提的是，有10.2%的人是做高频交易，在当日或数日内完成交易，还有5.7%的人选择网格条件 单，即提前下单，让系统自动低买高卖ETF，这 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After more than a month of continuous recovery, the coupon attractiveness of credit bonds has declined, and the market has shown mixed performance. Currently, the coupon strategy remains the optimal choice, but the bond - selection space has narrowed. 2 - 3Y AA(2) and above weak - quality urban investment bond sinking can still be considered, and it is not recommended to pursue ultra - long - term credit bonds for band trading. There is a small window period for band trading of Tier 2 capital bonds, and medium - to high - grade 4 - 5Y bonds with yields above 2.1% - 2.2% can be appropriately considered [1][35][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance of Credit Bonds - Last week, interest - rate bonds fluctuated strongly, while credit bonds showed mixed performance for two consecutive weeks. Low - credit - grade and commercial financial bonds had relatively better market performance. Since the National Day holiday in October, credit bonds had continuously recovered for nearly a month, but starting from mid - November, the support for further decline in yields was insufficient. The yields of ultra - long - term credit bonds also showed mixed performance, with 7Y performing better than 10Y, and only the yields of ultra - long - term urban investment bonds with the weakest liquidity recovered against the trend [1][11][13]. - From November 17th to 21st, 2025, the 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y Treasury bond yields changed by - 1.0BP, - 0.1BP, - 0.5BP, - 0.7BP, and + 0.9BP respectively. The yields of the same - term AAA medium - term notes changed by - 0.4BP, - 0.1BP, - 2.3BP, + 0.4BP, and + 2.9BP respectively; the yields of AA + medium - term notes changed by - 0.4BP, - 0.1BP, - 1.3BP, + 1.4BP, and + 0.9BP respectively [11][12]. - The AAA/AA + 10Y medium - term note yields increased by 0.57BP, the AAA/AA + 10Y urban investment bond yields decreased by 2.16BP and 1.15BP respectively, the AAA - 10Y bank Tier 2 capital bond yields increased by 0.98BP, and the 10Y Treasury bond yields increased by 0.26BP [13]. Performance of Tier 2 Capital Bonds - Since mid - November, Tier 2 capital bonds have shown large fluctuations, with the "volatility amplifier" feature reappearing, and the decline is higher than that of the same - term general credit bonds and interest - rate bonds. The yields of 1 - 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y AAA - bank Tier 2 capital bonds increased by 0.87BP, 1.39BP, 1.36BP, 0.06BP, 1.64BP, 0.68BP, and 0.98BP respectively. Currently, the part of the curve above 4 years is still 30BP - 50BP away from the lowest yield point since 2025. Compared with the sharp decline at the end of July, only the yield points of ultra - long - term bonds above 5 years are higher than the previous round [2][17]. - Last week, the buying volume of Tier 2 capital bonds was relatively strong, but it decreased marginally compared with the previous week. From November 17th to 21st, the proportion of low - valuation transactions of Tier 2 capital bonds was 100.00%, 100.00%, 82.50%, 100.00%, and 42.50% respectively; the average transaction duration decreased compared with the previous week. The amplitude of low - valuation transactions was generally low, and the amplitude of discount transactions was also small [19][20]. Market of Ultra - Long - Term Credit Bonds - The selling pressure of ultra - long - term credit bonds has weakened for two consecutive weeks. Last week, the focus of discount transactions returned to individual bonds with credit flaws. About 57% of the discount transaction amplitudes were above 4BP, and individual bonds with credit flaws such as AVIC Industry - Finance became the trading focus again, with a trading proportion of up to 13% [3][21]. - The willingness to buy ultra - long - term credit bonds was also not strong. The market trading focus was still on weak - quality urban investment bonds. Although some institutions had a strong willingness to buy, the proportion of ultra - long - term credit bonds in transactions with an amplitude of 3BP and above was not high, and such transactions were mainly 2 - 5Y AA(2) and AA - weak - quality urban investment bonds [3][24]. Institutional Behavior - The net buying of general credit bonds by public funds has weakened, mainly for bonds within 3Y. The incremental demand brought by amortized debt funds may be weakened. Starting from late November, the opening rhythm of amortized debt funds with a closed - end period of more than 3 years will slow down. Last week, funds net - bought 138.72 billion yuan of credit bonds within 1Y, 127.47 billion yuan of 1 - 3Y credit bonds, and 73.60 billion yuan of 3 - 5Y credit bonds, with low demand for credit bonds above 7Y [3][28]. - The buying of credit bonds by wealth management products has also slowed down. Last week, wealth management products mainly net - bought 41.74 billion yuan of credit bonds within 1Y and 21.47 billion yuan of 1 - 3Y credit bonds. Since November, the weekly capital inflow scale of wealth management products has been average, and there is no significant incremental support on the demand side [28].

Core Insights - The interview highlights the success of He Ran, who won the championship in the hedging arbitrage group of the national futures (options) trading competition, emphasizing the importance of adhering to one's trading strategy despite market fluctuations [1] Group 1: Trading Philosophy and Strategy - He Ran attributes his success to the principle of "sticking to one's strategy," which helped him navigate through significant profit drawdowns and periods without gains during the competition [1] - His trading approach focuses on swing trading and arbitrage, primarily utilizing cross-commodity arbitrage in stock index futures and hedging arbitrage in options, capitalizing on the considerable profit potential in a volatile market [1] Group 2: Risk Management and Emotional Control - He Ran has established clear trading principles, using K-line breakthroughs as critical references for opening positions, stop-loss, and take-profit decisions [2] - He emphasizes strict adherence to stop-loss rules, such as a maximum loss of 0.5% per trade and a daily drawdown limit of 3%, which he believes is essential for protecting capital [2] - He Ran acknowledges the impact of emotions like anxiety, greed, and fear on trading decisions and advises distancing oneself from the market during negative emotional states to avoid larger losses [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Advice for New Traders - He Ran views his recent competition success as a new starting point, focusing on strategy optimization rather than short-term rankings, aiming for long-term stable profits [2] - He offers practical advice for novice traders, recommending starting with simulated trading to achieve stable profits before transitioning to real trading with small capital, while prioritizing capital protection [2]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes a shift in macroeconomic anchors with a focus on fiscal policy leading and monetary policy supporting, leading to a convergence of interest rate cut expectations towards the "natural rate" [1] - It discusses the micro changes in bond market pricing, highlighting the increasing influence of interbank systems on bond pricing and the growing proportion of multi-asset investors in the bond market [1] - The article predicts a weak oscillation pattern in the bond market for 2026, with a return of ticket interest rate strategies and a focus on flexible varieties for wave operations [1] Group 2 - The article suggests a focus on diversified fixed-income assets in a low-interest-rate environment, identifying structural opportunities in convertible bonds, public/private REITs, Chinese dollar bonds, and overseas bonds [1] - It notes that bond ETFs may become a new development direction amid the expanding yield gap in a low-interest-rate environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing intensified fluctuations in Q4, contrasting with last year's bullish trend, leading to challenges in trading strategies [1][4]. Market Performance - As of September, the yield on bonds from various banks has risen above 1.8%, with specific yields recorded at 1.8093% for joint-stock banks, 1.8058% for city commercial banks, and 1.8437% for rural commercial banks, marking a significant increase from the previous month [1][2]. - The trading volume of bonds in September reached 146,366.88 billion yuan, with the overall yield averaging 1.9091% across different bank types [2][3]. Yield Trends - The ten-year government bond yield has been fluctuating, reaching 1.8591% by October 14, with predictions suggesting a range between 1.5% and 1.9% for the remainder of the year [2][4]. - The yields recorded in September are the second highest of the year, following March's figures, indicating a potential peak in bond yields [2][5]. Influencing Factors - Several factors are contributing to the bond market's volatility, including the stock-bond relationship, regulatory attitudes, and adjustments in value-added tax policies [2][4]. - The market sentiment has shifted towards a more balanced trading environment, with increased interest in long-term bonds as yields rise [4][5]. Strategic Adjustments - Banks are advised to enhance their trading capabilities while incorporating derivatives for hedging and adjusting their asset allocations to maintain a reasonable bond investment ratio [6]. - Investment strategies are focusing on identifying market trends and adjusting positions to optimize returns, with an emphasis on flexible trading strategies in a volatile environment [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - A-shares are experiencing a volatile rebound with the technology sector leading. After a significant increase, A-shares may enter a high-level volatile pattern. The direction of monetary policy in the second half of September is crucial for the equity market. [3] - The bond market sentiment is weak, with continued capital convergence and falling bond futures. There is a possibility of over - selling in the bond market, and the 10 - year bond yield may continue to rise. [3] - Precious metals are in a high - level volatile state after digesting geopolitical events and interest - rate cut expectations. [3] - Various commodities have different trends and trading suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index Futures**: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are 0.29%, - 0.06%, - 0.99%, and - 1.10% respectively. A-shares are in a volatile rebound, and after a large increase, they may enter a high - level volatile pattern. Wait for volatility to converge before entering the market. [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment is weak, and the 10 - year bond yield has not stabilized at 1.8%. T2512 has broken through the previous low. Suggest investors to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term. [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold can be bought cautiously at low levels, or short - sell out - of - the - money options to capture volatility decline. Silver can be traded in the range of $40 - 42, and also sell out - of - the - money options. [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract of EC is weakly volatile. Consider 12 - 10 spread arbitrage. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices remain weak. Pay attention to the support levels of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils. Long positions should exit and wait. [3] - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have dropped significantly from the high level, arrivals have decreased, and port clearance has slightly declined. The iron ore price is running strongly. Buy the 2601 contract at low levels in the range of 780 - 830, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are weakly volatile, coal mines are resuming production and destocking. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1070 - 1170, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage position. [3] - **Coke**: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, compressing coking profits with more room for cuts. Short positions should take profit in the range of 1550 - 1650, and reduce the long - iron - ore short - coke arbitrage position. [3] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak US PPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations. Pay attention to Thursday's inflation data. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000. [3] - **Alumina**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2900 - 3200. [3] - **Aluminum**: The weekly start - up rate of processed products is continuously recovering. Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand. The main contract reference range is 20400 - 21000. [3] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own reference price range and trading suggestions based on their fundamentals and market sentiment. [3] Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risk premiums support the oil price rebound, but the loose supply - demand fundamentals limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see. For options, wait for volatility to increase for spread - widening opportunities. [3] - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand expectations, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided, such as range trading, short - selling, or waiting and seeing. [3] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: There is a bearish outlook for palm oil due to inventory growth and weak exports. Pay attention to the support levels of various agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and sugar. [3] - **Livestock and Poultry**: The pig market has limited supply - demand contradictions. The corn market has limited upward potential in the short term. [3] Special Commodities - **Glass**: News about production lines in Shahe has driven up the futures price. Pay attention to the actual progress. [3] - **Rubber**: After the macro - sentiment fades, the rubber price is falling in a volatile manner. Wait and see. [3] New Energy - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Pay attention to the Silicon Industry Conference. Due to news - related disturbances, the futures prices are falling. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Wait and see. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by news, the sentiment in the market has weakened significantly, but the fundamentals remain in a tight - balance state. Wait and see, and pay attention to the performance around 72,000. [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that international gold prices have reached historical highs, driven by multiple factors including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, and ongoing gold purchases by global central banks [1][3][5] - Gold futures in New York hit $3518.5 per ounce, marking the third challenge of the $3500 level since 2025, with previous peaks at $3509.9 and $3534 per ounce [1][3] - In August, international gold prices saw a cumulative increase of 5.002%, the best monthly performance since April [3] Group 2 - The expectation of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is a primary driver of rising gold prices, with a nearly 90% probability of a cut in September [3][5] - Geopolitical instability, particularly the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, has led investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [3][5] - A weaker US dollar has also supported the rise in gold prices, as there is typically an inverse relationship between the dollar's strength and gold prices [3] Group 3 - Global central banks, including those in China and Turkey, are increasing their gold reserves, which reflects a recognition of gold's value retention and sends a positive signal to the market [5] - Several international financial institutions are bullish on gold prices, with UBS raising its 2026 price target to $3700 per ounce and Bank of America predicting a rise to $4000 per ounce [5][12] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have also contributed to the upward pressure on gold prices [5] Group 4 - Successful long-term investment cases in gold highlight the value of patience and strategic positioning, as seen in the example of an investor who achieved over 30 times returns by holding onto shares of China National Gold [7] - Gold plays a crucial role in asset allocation, providing a hedge against market volatility and helping to stabilize asset values during financial crises [8] - Companies are increasingly allocating portions of their liquid assets to gold to mitigate currency fluctuation risks, demonstrating gold's importance in corporate finance strategies [8] Group 5 - Various investment strategies in gold cater to different investor profiles, with long-term strategies suitable for risk-averse investors, while experienced investors may prefer short-term trading strategies [9] - Hedging strategies are particularly relevant for companies involved in gold production and trade, allowing them to lock in costs and reduce price volatility risks [9] Group 6 - Current market conditions suggest that there are no significant bearish factors for gold, with major financial institutions raising their price targets for gold in the coming years [12] - The ongoing upward trend in gold prices is likely to continue for several weeks, contingent on whether the Federal Reserve implements the anticipated interest rate cuts [11][12]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3800 points, reaching its highest level in over a decade, leading to a shift in investor sentiment and strategies [1][15][20] - A survey of over 50,000 fund investors indicates that mutual funds remain the primary investment choice, with a significant portion of investors adopting a defensive stance amid market volatility [1][18] Investor Sentiment and Behavior - Approximately 70% of investors are optimistic about the market's potential to break through resistance levels, despite nearly 60% of them currently holding positions that are underwater [20][14] - The majority of investors (49.7%) are opting for risk reduction strategies, while a smaller percentage (24.6%) are looking to increase their positions [18][20] Investment Strategies - A notable preference for "swing trading" (45.8%) and "long-term holding" (39.9%) strategies indicates a flexible approach among investors, focusing on market timing and value investing [28] - The rise of index funds and ETFs is evident, with 51% of investors favoring these passive investment vehicles over actively managed funds [33][34] Portfolio Composition - Fund investments account for 62.5% of investor allocations, with stocks and bonds following closely behind [8][12] - A significant portion of investors (36.1%) are classified as "heavy" investors, holding 60% to 90% in equity assets, while only 12.9% are fully invested [12][14] Sector Preferences - Over half of the investors (50.1%) are optimistic about the technology sector, with consumer and financial sectors also receiving considerable attention [25][26] - A majority (90.3%) of investors are considering adjustments to their portfolio structures, with a strong inclination towards value stocks [25][26] Risk Awareness - Investors are primarily concerned about macroeconomic risks, with 46.9% citing economic downturns as their top worry [24] - The sentiment reflects a cautious optimism, with 48.2% of respondents expressing a careful outlook on market conditions [21] Information Sources and Decision-Making - Investors predominantly rely on financial media (62.0%) and social platforms (53.8%) for investment information, indicating a shift towards more accessible and interactive content [29] - Company financial reports (53.6%) and macroeconomic data (40.7%) are the key factors influencing investment decisions, highlighting a data-driven approach [30][36]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3800 points, reaching its highest level in over ten years, with investor sentiment shifting towards cautious optimism [1][15][20] - A survey of over 50,000 fund investors indicates a significant portion are adopting defensive strategies while maintaining a long-term optimistic outlook on the market [1][18][21] Investor Sentiment and Behavior - Approximately 49.7% of investors are opting to reduce their positions or lower risk, while 70% believe the market will continue to break through resistance levels [18][20] - The majority of investors (57.6%) have 1-5 years of investment experience, indicating a relatively inexperienced investor base [5][3] - Fund investments are the primary choice for 62.5% of respondents, highlighting a preference for mutual funds over other asset classes [8] Investment Strategies - A mix of investment strategies is evident, with 45.8% favoring swing trading and 39.9% opting for long-term holding [28] - The use of leverage is divided, with 35.2% of investors employing it, while 51.1% avoid it altogether, reflecting varied risk appetites [27] Sector Preferences - Over 50% of investors are optimistic about the technology sector, with significant interest also in consumer and financial sectors [25][26] - A notable 90.3% of investors plan to adjust their portfolio structures, with a strong inclination towards value stocks [26] Information Sources and Decision-Making - Investors primarily rely on financial media (62.0%) and social platforms (53.8%) for investment information, indicating a shift towards more accessible information sources [29] - Company financial reports and macroeconomic data are the most critical factors influencing investment decisions, with 53.6% and 40.7% of investors respectively prioritizing these [30] Trends in Fund Management - The preference for index funds and ETFs has risen, with 51% of investors favoring these over actively managed funds [33][34] - The influence of star fund managers is waning, with 55% of investors viewing their insights as merely reference points rather than definitive guidance [35][36] Investor Concerns and Suggestions - Economic downturns are the primary concern for 46.9% of investors, followed by liquidity tightening and policy shifts [24] - Investors express a desire for lower fees and improved transparency in fund management, reflecting a growing demand for better investment practices [38]