21世纪经济报道 记者 崔文静 广州报道 "科技创新必须扎根产业土壤，真正实现从'空中楼阁'到'叫好又 叫座'的跨越，才能驱动经济的坚实增长。"在2025年证券业年会上，国联民生证券首席经济学家陶川如 是表示。 12月5日至6日，以"共识的力量——创新涌动，中国资产重估"为主题的南方财经论坛2025年会在广州召 开。作为圆桌对话的重要嘉宾，陶川围绕"十五五"开局之年的经济与市场前景分享了独到见解。 陶川首先分析了2026年全球经济与中国经济走势。他认为，全球将进入"潮水退去"阶段：俄乌冲突趋近 终局，美联储新主席明确降息路径，贸易政策不确定性显著降低。国内经济则聚焦三大动能：向产业要 动能（现代化产业体系建设）、向科技要生产力（科技成果转化）、向民生消费要增速（居民消费率提 升）。"这三点切合到一起，对于2026年资本市场可以有更多期待，所谓的价值重估也打开了更多空 间。"陶川强调。 谈及A股价值重估，陶川系统阐述了2026年重估动能的三大来源。在产业动能方面，他指出现代化产业 体系落地将带动PPI回升，推动制造业盈利修复；在科技落地方面，他特别强调要关注"叫好又叫座"的 科技应用，避免"空中楼阁"式创新；在 ...

2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，经济增长目标预计维持在5%左右，实际增长率约4.9%，名义GDP增速升至4.2%左右，经济运行聚焦"质价共进"。投资端， 制造业在高端化智能化驱动下增速预计达5.2%，"十五五"重大项目推动广义基建投资增长6%，房地产投资降幅收窄至-10%。消费端，社消增速乐观预期达 5%，县域消费与医疗、教育、文旅等服务消费成为重要增长点，CPI和PPI预计分别回升至0.5%、-1%至0区间。外需受益于中美短期贸易协议及安全型走廊 贸易深化，出口增速预计在4%-5%。 政策层面延续宽松基调，财政政策持续发力，预算赤字率或突破4%，新增专项债限额约4.5万亿元，超长期特别国债发行规模扩大至1.4-1.5万亿元，重点支 持"两重"建设与消费品以旧换新。货币政策保持适度宽松，美联储降息背景下，国内或有25bp降准和10bp降息空间，社会融资规模增速预计保持8%以上。 税制改革聚焦动态调整，将持续提升直接税占比，健全经营、资本、财产所得税收政策。 大类资产配置方面，超配美股（受益于流动性宽松与AI资本开支增长）、黄金（上半年降息预期与央行购金支撑）、铜（供给紧张叠加AI电网需求）；低 配原油（库存 ...

Group 1 - The global economy is seeking a new balance amid downward pressures and structural challenges, with geopolitical conflicts and supply chain restructuring posing significant tests [1] - The "2025 First Financial Annual Financial Value Conference" held in Shanghai focused on key topics such as the internationalization of the RMB, new trends in the Chinese economy, and paths to enhance household consumption [1] - The conference highlighted influential figures in the financial industry who have significantly impacted industry transformation and market research [1] Group 2 - Three key trends are shaping the current global landscape: deep adjustments in globalization, the rise of protectionism, and the integration of technology with the economy [2] - China is entering a "dual investment" phase, balancing both inbound and outbound investments [2] Group 3 - Since the Belt and Road Initiative, China's outbound direct investment (ODI) has rapidly increased, surpassing foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2015 and maintaining a leading position in most years [3] - The structure of China's trade partners has diversified, with exports to the US, EU, and ASEAN decreasing from 50.8% in 2019 to 45.5% in 2024, while exports to Belt and Road countries have risen to approximately 47% [3] Group 4 - The internationalization of the RMB is expected to accelerate during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with significant breakthroughs in trade settlement, payment systems, and reserve allocation over the past 16 years [3][5] - The necessity for RMB internationalization has increased due to changes in the global trade landscape and rising dollar credit risks [5] Group 5 - The new core variable of China's economy is the new quality productivity, driven by technological innovation and deep integration with the industrial chain [5] - The contribution of real estate to the economy has decreased to about 10%, while the stock market is benefiting from emerging industries and economic recovery [12] Group 6 - The long-term trend of the Chinese stock market remains upward, with investment opportunities in sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy vehicles, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence [12] - The conference included discussions on wealth growth in a low-interest-rate environment, emphasizing a shift from single yield pursuit to long-term stable allocation strategies [12][13]

Group 1: Macro Research - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need to significantly increase the resident consumption rate, setting a more realistic target of around 50% for the next five years [2][23][25] - The report analyzes the reasons behind the low consumption rate in China, identifying factors such as ineffective redistribution effects, limited channels for property income, and fluctuating average consumption propensity [3][25][26] - It is projected that by 2030, the resident consumption rate in China could rise to a range of 42%-47%, potentially boosting nominal GDP growth by 2.9-3.9 percentage points [3][26] Group 2: Overseas Strategy Research - Global indices mostly rose, with MSCI Global up by 0.6%, and North American holdings reaching historical highs [6][28] - The earnings expectations for U.S. tech stocks were significantly revised upwards during the earnings season, with the S&P 500's EPS forecast for 2025 adjusted to 270 [8][29] - The report highlights a recovery in economic sentiment across major markets, supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and improved relations between China and the U.S. [8][29] Group 3: Industry Deep Dive - Semiconductor Storage Controllers - The global SSD controller market is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected market size of approximately $24.965 billion in 2024, increasing to $27.763 billion in 2025, and a compound annual growth rate of about 14.4% from 2025 to 2032 [10][11] - The industry is characterized by a coexistence of independent manufacturers and IDM firms, with independent firms holding a significant market share due to their diverse customer base and technical services [11][13] - Emerging demands from AI, data centers, automotive electronics, and industrial IoT are driving the upgrade of high-end SSD controllers, presenting new growth opportunities [10][11][13] Group 4: Industry Research - Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2025, with revenues down 6% year-on-year and net profits down 13% [14][15] - The report indicates a significant drop in the white liquor segment, with revenues down 18% and net profits down 22% in Q3 2025, suggesting a need for market adjustments [15][16] - The beverage sector shows structural growth, with recommendations for companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring, while also highlighting the resilience of beer and snack segments [14][16]