Core Insights - The delivery speed issues in the food delivery industry have become a significant concern for consumers, especially after the decline of subsidy wars, leading to increased sensitivity towards service capabilities [2][3] - The competition among food delivery platforms is shifting from price wars to service quality, with a focus on improving delivery efficiency and customer satisfaction [2][5] Delivery Performance - The number of delivery riders has significantly increased this summer, with Ele.me reporting a 181% growth in active riders and a 236% increase in crowd-sourced riders by the end of July [3] - Despite the increase in rider numbers, challenges remain in maintaining delivery efficiency, particularly during peak hours, due to varying rider density and system coordination issues [4] Service Quality Challenges - The decline in subsidies may exacerbate delivery speed issues, as platforms may struggle to maintain resource allocation and delivery efficiency without financial incentives [3] - Systemic issues, such as discrepancies in estimated delivery times between merchants and riders, as well as inefficient navigation routes, contribute to delays and require optimization [4] Competitive Landscape - The competition is evolving towards a "15-minute delivery" model, with platforms like Meituan attempting to attract users with rapid delivery promises, although actual performance may not always meet expectations [5] - The focus of competition is now on three main areas: user engagement, merchant partnerships, and rider resources, with an emphasis on maximizing existing user value and enhancing service offerings [6]

Core Viewpoint - The current battle in instant retail, particularly in food delivery, is characterized by a significant increase in subsidies from major platforms, leading to record-high order volumes. However, the underlying reality suggests that the competition is not merely about subsidy scale but rather about the foundational infrastructure capabilities that determine the ultimate victor [3][6][15]. Group 1: Key Factors for Success - The decisive factors in the current food delivery war are fulfillment and supply capabilities, which have become the strongest leverage points [7]. - Recent order data shows that JD's food delivery surpassed 25 million orders last month, while Meituan's peak order volume increased from 90 million to 150 million within a short period, indicating a significant growth potential despite the high subsidy environment [8][9][10]. - Meituan's return on investment (ROI) from subsidies appears to be the highest among the three major platforms, suggesting that its operational efficiency is superior [10][11]. Group 2: Misconceptions in the Market - The misconception that food delivery is primarily a volume-driven business is challenged by the reality that fulfillment and supply capabilities are critical to success. The dynamics of local, non-standardized transactions in food delivery differ significantly from traditional retail [16][19]. - The historical pattern of subsidy wars in various sectors indicates that attracting users through subsidies often leads to low conversion rates and customer lifetime value (LTV), as these users are typically price-sensitive rather than genuinely interested in the service [27][28]. Group 3: The Dangers of Continuous Subsidy Wars - The ongoing subsidy wars are unsustainable and could lead to market distortions, undermining the health of the instant delivery ecosystem. The focus should shift from mere data competition to fostering a healthy development of the entire market [24][28][29]. - The two primary motivations for e-commerce platforms engaging in food delivery are to leverage high-frequency dining demand to drive low-frequency retail demand and to build a comprehensive instant delivery system. However, relying on strong subsidies is not a viable strategy for achieving these goals [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The current battle in instant retail, particularly in food delivery, is characterized by a significant increase in subsidies and order volumes, but the real competition lies in the underlying infrastructure capabilities rather than just the scale of subsidies [2][4][24]. Group 1: Order Data and System Capabilities - Order data serves as a battle report, while system capabilities represent the true front line of competition [3]. - The latest order statistics show that JD's food delivery surpassed 25 million orders, while Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me exceeded 80 million orders, and Meituan reached a peak of 150 million orders [7][8][12]. - Meituan's growth potential appears greater despite its larger base, as it has achieved significant order volume increases with lower subsidy levels compared to competitors [12][18]. Group 2: Key Differentiators - The primary differentiator among the three platforms is their fulfillment and supply capabilities, with Meituan leading in this area [11][12]. - JD's late entry has resulted in a longer construction period for its infrastructure, raising questions about its capital capacity [11]. - Taobao Flash Sale, while integrating resources from Ele.me, still faces limitations due to its smaller scale compared to Meituan [12]. Group 3: Misconceptions and Market Dynamics - The misconception that food delivery is a flow business is challenged by the reality that demand for food is constant and cannot be artificially created like retail products [17][24]. - The strategy of using subsidies to drive traffic and create social recognition is flawed in the context of food delivery, where supply and fulfillment must align with consumer demand [17][24]. - Historical patterns indicate that subsidy-driven customer acquisition often attracts price-sensitive users rather than genuine demand, leading to low conversion rates and customer lifetime value [23][24]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The ongoing subsidy wars are unsustainable and should not continue, as they distort market signals and can lead to supply imbalances and degraded user experiences [21][24]. - The focus should shift from mere order volume competition to enhancing the overall ecosystem of instant retail, emphasizing fulfillment capabilities and user experience [24][25].