贵金属避险属性
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山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260127
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 09:41
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间:2026年01月27日16时58分 报告导读: 今日贵金属高位分化,沪金主力收涨1.52%,沪银主力收涨7.25%,铂金主力收跌4.61%,钯金主力收涨跌2.087%。①核心逻辑, 短期避险方面,贸易战与地缘异动风险上升;美国就业走弱通胀温和,降息预期存在支撑。②避险属性方面,美航母打击群向中东 集结,伊朗扬言任何对伊攻击将被视为全面开战。特朗普表示,将对把部分韩国输美商品关税从15%上调至25%,贸易战与地缘异 动风险上升。③货币属性方面,美国11月核心资本财订单连续第五个月增长,提振经济前景。美国12月CPI涨幅符合预期,但家庭 食品与房租支出增加。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率,暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出,美联储的利率政策 已处于良好位置,可以应对未来经济走势。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在95%附近,下次降息或到6月。美元指 数和美债收益率震荡偏强;④商品属性方面,波兰央行表示,已批准一项购买多达150吨黄金的计划。白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂 金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性,长期面临燃油车市场结构 ...
期货收评:纯苯涨3%,沪银涨2%,工业硅、沪金涨1%;沪锡跌5%,碳酸锂跌3%,玻璃、铁矿石、沪铅、生猪跌超2%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-19 07:24
Group 1 - The macroeconomic and regional risks are increasing, enhancing the safe-haven attributes of precious metals [1] - In the short term, expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are fluctuating, leading to a market that is easier to rise than to fall [1] - In the medium to long term, uncertainties surrounding global tariff policies and regional politics will keep safe-haven and stagflation trading as the core of gold trading, maintaining its long-term allocation value [1] Group 2 - On January 19, the domestic futures market saw more declines than increases, with pure benzene rising over 3% and silver rising over 2% [3] - Other commodities such as styrene, industrial silicon, and gold also saw increases of over 1%, while tin fell over 5% and lithium carbonate and synthetic rubber fell over 3% [3] - A significant number of commodities, including glass, iron ore, rapeseed meal, and live pigs, experienced declines of over 2% [3]
关税风暴推高避险需求,黄金再创历史新高,黄金股票ETF备受关注
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-19 06:30
Core Viewpoint - The gold industry is experiencing a strong performance, driven by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 19, 2026, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 1.50%, with significant gains from constituent stocks such as Sichuan Gold (+9.99%) and Zhaojin Mining (+9.71%) [1]. - The Gold Stock ETF (159322) increased by 1.66%, with the latest price reported at 1.9 yuan [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - On January 18, multiple EU countries are considering imposing tariffs on U.S. goods worth €93 billion in response to U.S. tariffs on European nations regarding Greenland [1]. - President Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods from several European countries, effective February 1, with plans to increase the rate to 25% starting in June [1]. Group 3: Investment Insights - Huafu Securities noted that rising macroeconomic and regional risks are enhancing the safe-haven appeal of precious metals [1]. - In the short term, expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are fluctuating, creating a market environment where gold prices are likely to rise [1]. - In the long term, uncertainties surrounding global tariff policies and regional politics will continue to support gold as a core investment for hedging and inflation concerns [1]. Group 4: Index Composition - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index comprises 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the gold industry in mainland China and Hong Kong [2]. - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 63.58% of the total index weight, with major companies including Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [2].
黄金,再创新高!金饰克价涨至1429元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-12 08:16
Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached a historic high, with New York futures exceeding $4,612.70 per ounce and London spot gold surpassing $4,600 per ounce for the first time [1][7][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to a criminal investigation launched by the U.S. Department of Justice against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [3][10]. - The weakening of the U.S. dollar index and stock futures has contributed to the surge in international gold and silver prices [4][10]. - Ongoing geopolitical risks globally are enhancing market risk aversion, which supports the upward trend in gold prices [4][10]. Group 2: Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also increased, with notable brands reporting significant price hikes. For instance, Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry is priced at 1,429 yuan per gram, up 19 yuan from January 10 [5][12]. - Other brands like Lao Feng Xiang and Lao Miao have also seen increases of 22 yuan and 29 yuan per gram, respectively [12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts from CITIC Futures predict that the current global economic and political conflicts will continue to increase market uncertainty, reinforcing the safe-haven appeal of precious metals, a trend expected to persist until 2026 [5][14]. - CITIC Securities believes that the certainty of gold price increases is significant, driven by expectations of dual easing in U.S. monetary and fiscal policies and persistent stagflation pressures in the U.S. economy. Their model forecasts that international gold prices could exceed $5,100 per ounce by the end of 2026 under a neutral scenario [5][14].
NCE平台:贵金属高波动运行
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-05 10:21
Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have shown strong performance at the beginning of the year, with silver standing out, reflecting their safe-haven attributes amid multiple uncertainties in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical events have heightened short-term demand for safe-haven assets, leading to increased price volatility within the day [1][3]. - There is a rapid shift of funds between risk assets and defensive assets, indicating a complex market structure where both bullish and bearish forces are in contention [1][3]. - Global stock markets have performed strongly at the start of 2026, with major indices reaching historical highs, supported by sector rotation and a recovery in risk appetite [1][3]. Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - The rise in precious metals is not solely due to a broad-based flight to safety but appears to be a hedging choice in an environment of high valuations and uncertainty [1][3]. - The correlation between the strengthening stock market and the rise in gold and silver prices reflects the complexity of the current market structure [1][3]. Group 3: Interest Rate Influence - Stable U.S. Treasury yields are influencing precious metals, with the market still engaged in a battle of expectations regarding future policy directions [4]. - As long as actual interest rates lack a clear direction, gold and silver prices are likely to experience wide fluctuations rather than a one-sided trend [4]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Both gold and silver are trading near critical price levels, with significant divergence between bulls and bears [2][4]. - The current technical structure suggests that investors should focus more on risk management rather than making directional bets, as precious metals are likely to trade within a range while awaiting new macroeconomic or funding signals [2][4].
财经随笔记:黄金走势推演与后市机会分析(2026.1.4)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-04 07:51
Group 1 - The core geopolitical event is the deterioration of the situation in Venezuela, with the U.S. launching military strikes and declaring a national emergency, which may lead to short-term oil price increases due to supply disruption risks [2] - The commodity market outlook indicates both short-term pressure and long-term bullish sentiment for gold and silver, with significant sell-offs expected in the short term but a bullish forecast for gold prices reaching $4,900 per ounce in the long term [2] - The Federal Reserve's policy uncertainty is heightened, with key speeches from FOMC members expected to influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [4] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that gold has experienced significant fluctuations, with key resistance and support levels identified, including a potential high at 4,550 and critical support at 4,274 [5][11] - The current market structure suggests that if gold fails to break previous highs, it may continue to experience downward pressure, indicating a need to monitor the ongoing adjustment phase [9] - Key price levels to watch include support around 4,300 and 4,274, as well as resistance at 4,400-4,405, which will be crucial for determining future market direction [11]
周末大消息,银价暴涨36%,白银LOF还要跑吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-28 09:01
Group 1 - The recent surge in silver prices is driven by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, which has lowered the dollar interest rate by a total of 75 basis points this year [5] - The CME's "FedWatch" tool indicates that there may be 1-2 more rate cuts expected next year, with a median forecast of a 25 basis point cut in 2026 [5] - As the dollar weakens, the cost of holding dollar-denominated assets decreases, leading to increased purchases of precious metals, particularly silver, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions [5] Group 2 - COMEX silver inventories remain low, and as delivery dates approach, concerns about the availability of physical silver for delivery have created a short squeeze, further driving up prices [6] - A similar situation occurred earlier this month when COMEX silver futures approached their delivery date, causing a spike in prices due to fears of insufficient silver for delivery [6] - The timing of this price surge is particularly sensitive as the year-end approaches, which can amplify market reactions [6]
多因素支撑贵金属全线大涨 专家提醒注意高位调整风险
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-12-24 02:47
Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, have experienced significant price increases, with gold and silver nearing historical highs, driven by macroeconomic factors and strong demand for safe-haven assets [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Movements - As of December 23, gold prices approached $4500 per ounce, while silver prices surpassed $69 per ounce, marking substantial year-to-date increases of over 71% for gold and 142% for silver [1][2] - Platinum and palladium also saw significant price rises, with platinum reaching $2190.70 per ounce and palladium hitting $1840.50 per ounce, reflecting year-to-date increases of 142% and 102%, respectively [2][3] Group 2: Supporting Factors - The strong performance of precious metals is attributed to global macroeconomic easing and geopolitical uncertainties, which enhance their appeal as safe-haven investments [3] - Market expectations of a shift in U.S. Federal Reserve policy, particularly following weaker-than-expected employment data and inflation trends, have bolstered demand for precious metals [3][4] - Central banks worldwide have been increasing their gold reserves, with a reported net purchase of 53 tons in October, marking a 36% month-over-month increase [3] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Investment demand has tightened the supply of silver, platinum, and palladium, leading to higher price elasticity, while caution is advised regarding potential market overheating [4] - Different precious metals exhibit distinct price-driving factors, with gold being sensitive to macroeconomic changes and safe-haven demand, while silver benefits from industrial demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [6][7] - Platinum and palladium prices are more closely tied to industrial demand and supply constraints, particularly in the automotive sector, where palladium is crucial for gasoline vehicle emissions control [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while platinum prices may find support from supply-demand dynamics, palladium faces structural pressures due to the shift towards electric vehicles, which could limit its price growth [8] - Recent announcements regarding trading limits on platinum and palladium futures indicate regulatory responses to the volatile market conditions [8]
现货白银首破60美元创历史新高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-10 08:31
Core Viewpoint - The spot silver price has reached a new high, surpassing $60 per ounce for the first time, hitting a peak of $61.02 per ounce as of December 10, 9 AM Beijing time [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting has heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the strong upward movement in silver prices [1] - The increase in silver prices reflects a strengthening of the precious metal's safe-haven attributes [1]
再创新高!现货白银升破60美元/盎司
Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao· 2025-12-10 08:13
Core Viewpoint - The spot silver price has reached a new high of $61.02 per ounce, marking the first time it has surpassed the $60 per ounce threshold, driven by increased market risk aversion ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting [1] Group 1 - The rise in silver prices reflects the strengthening of precious metals' safe-haven attributes [1] - Analysts from Dongxing Futures attribute the price surge to heightened market risk aversion [1]