贵金属月报 长牛逻辑坚实，短期波动或加剧 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 在美联储独立性危机、美国政府停摆、货币宽松 预期以及地缘局势紧张、央行持续购金、投资资 金流入黄金白银ETF等一系列因素的助推下，金 银价格的强势上涨，屡创新高。目前多头资金已 显拥挤，投机资金有获利了结的可能，金银短期 需警惕调整风险。目前中美关税摩擦再度升级， 将限制贵金属的调整空间，预计金银价格可能通 过高位震荡来实现调整。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 17 / ⚫ 长期来看，贵金属的避险属性强化，货币属性正 在回归，金银长期上涨的逻辑依然坚实。现阶段 金银价格仍处于长期上涨的趋势之中，后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has reached a historical high, surpassing $3500 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 33% [2]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On September 1, COMEX gold futures peaked at $3552.4 per ounce, marking a continuous rise for five trading days [8]. - As of the latest report, COMEX gold is priced at $3565.44 per ounce, while London spot gold is at $3494.41 per ounce [8]. - The price of gold in Shenzhen's Shui Bei market is reported at 811 CNY per gram for purchase and 789 CNY per gram for recycling [4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - There has been a noticeable increase in consumer activity in Shenzhen's Shui Bei, with many purchasing gold jewelry [6]. - A local jewelry manager indicated that the price of 800 CNY per gram is a significant threshold for retail business, suggesting potential for further price increases [8]. Group 3: Domestic Market Response - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen significantly, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Miao reporting increases in their gold jewelry prices [13]. - The main gold futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 800.56 CNY, marking a 2.08% increase [12]. Group 4: Silver Market Trends - COMEX silver futures reached a new high of $41.64 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 41%, surpassing the increase in gold prices [8]. - The current price of silver on COMEX is $41.70 per ounce, reflecting a 2.39% increase [9]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the gold market may maintain a strong upward trend due to ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical risks [14]. - Technical analysis indicates that gold may target $3550 per ounce, with support around $3450 per ounce [14].