证券研究报告 多元资产配置系列之二： 低利率时代的FOF多元配置趋势与应用实践 证券分析师 郭子睿 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 任书康 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 陈 瑶 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 研究助理 胡心怡 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 2026年2月26日 高 越 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 投资要点 风险提示：历史业绩不代表未来表现；策略复杂性与成本风险；海外市场汇率风险；流动性风险。 1 发展背景与配置格局：（1）宏观背景：利率持续下行推动资产配置型产品需求抬升。存量产品来看，偏债型FOF通过债券打底、多资产增厚的策略，精准契合了当前市 场资金对于低波动、稳健收益的风险偏好，2025年偏债混合型FOF规模增长176%；增量产品来看，新发产品通过显性化的"多元"标签强化多元资产配置属性。（2）多 元配置格局：越来越多的FOF开始将黄金、商品、港股指数、全球股指纳入基准，香港市场为主的主动及被动基金、QDII权益/混合/债券基金、商品型基金、互认基金、 REITs、中性策略等 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core Views The report reviews the fund market in 2025, including the overall situation of the public - offering fund industry, the development of various sub - categories of public - offering funds, and the situation of private - offering securities investment funds. It also provides a market outlook for 2026 and selects several types of funds for attention. In 2025, the public - offering fund market achieved significant positive returns, and the private - offering securities investment fund market expanded in scale. In 2026, with the resonance of China's and the US policies, the A - share market is expected to shift from liquidity - driven to profit - driven, and attention should be paid to specific investment directions and the rhythm of the fixed - income market [2][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Public Fund Overall Overview - **Asset Management Market Overview**: By the end of Q3 2025, the total scale of China's asset management business reached 80.03 trillion yuan. Public - offering funds and private - offering funds drove the growth of the asset management scale, with public - offering funds contributing 3.92 trillion yuan to the scale growth. The public - offering fund market maintained strong vitality, with a total scale of 36.67 trillion yuan and a total share of 31.30 trillion shares by the end of 2025, showing year - on - year growth [16][20]. - **Public Fund New - issuance Market**: In 2025, stock - type and bond - type funds were the main new - issuance products. The new - issuance volume of stock - type funds was large, and the new - issuance scale was comparable to that of bond - type funds, mainly relying on passive products [40]. - **Non - monetary Head Managers of Public Funds**: Since 2021, the top - three managers in terms of non - monetary fund scale have been relatively stable. In 2025, E Fund, China Asset Management, and GF Fund had different product line focuses in terms of stock and incremental scale. Huatai - Peregrine Fund and Invesco Great Wall Fund showed good performance [47][48]. - **Performance of Public Fund Products**: In 2025, the public - offering fund market achieved significant positive returns. Commodity - type funds represented by gold performed excellently, and stock - type funds also received good returns with reduced volatility and drawdown [3][56]. 3.2 Hot Topics in the Fund Industry - **Reform of Public - offering Fund Policies**: In 2025, a series of reform measures were introduced to promote the transformation of the public - offering fund industry from "scale - oriented" to "return - oriented" [59]. - **New - style Floating - rate Funds**: In 2025, new - style floating - rate funds were successively launched, which had important impacts on the public - offering fund market, such as guiding long - term holding and strengthening the binding mechanism between fund companies and investors [67][69]. - **Commercial Real Estate REITs**: In 2025, the pilot of commercial real estate REITs was officially launched, and 12 products had been officially declared by February 13, 2026 [73][75]. - **Development of the Fund Investment Advisory Industry**: Policy support, product expansion, and institutional empowerment promoted the development of the fund investment advisory industry. The investment scope of fund investment advisors was gradually broadened, and leading public - offering funds entered the market [77][79]. 3.3 Overview of Sub - categories of Public Funds - **Active Equity Funds**: In 2025, the scale of active equity funds rebounded, with an average return of 33.29%. Funds focusing on the AI industry chain led the gains [101]. - **Industry Theme Funds**: By the end of 2025, there were 2,009 industry theme funds, with a significant increase in scale. Funds in technology communication, large - scale technology, and large - scale manufacturing sectors led the gains [4][150]. - **Active Fixed - income Funds**: In the low - interest - rate environment and the rising equity market in 2025, the management pressure of pure - bond portfolios increased, while the scale of bond - containing funds increased significantly [170][174]. - **Passive Funds**: By the end of 2025, the total scale of passive funds exceeded 7.5 trillion yuan. ETFs continued to expand, and industry themes and bonds frequently created hot topics [205]. - **FOF Funds**: By the end of 2025, the total scale of FOF funds increased significantly, with performance showing significant differentiation. The new - issuance market recovered [296][309]. - **Quantitative Funds**: The scale of quantitative funds expanded rapidly, with index - enhanced funds dominating the scale. The new - issuance market of A500 and ChiNext/Science and Technology Innovation Board index - enhanced funds was hot, and small - cap products had outstanding returns [334][346]. 3.4 Overall Situation of Private - offering Securities Investment Funds - **Existing Situation**: By the end of December 2025, the existing scale of private - offering securities investment funds reached a record high of 7.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 35.82%. The number of funds decreased, and fund managers continued to be cleared out [377]. - **New - issuance Market**: In 2025, the number and scale of newly - registered private - offering securities investment funds both increased. The access for new fund managers remained strict [382]. - **Industry Pattern**: The number of private - offering funds with a scale of over 10 billion yuan increased, while the number of those with a scale of less than 500 million yuan decreased significantly [391]. - **Market Trends**: In 2025, the scale of quantitative private - offering funds expanded again, and 14 new quantitative private - offering funds exceeded 10 billion yuan in scale. The regulatory rules for program trading were implemented [394][399]. - **Market Trends**: The number of insurance - funded private - offering securities investment funds increased to 7, and insurance funds increased their layout in the equity market through private - offering funds [400]. 3.5 Market Outlook in 2026 - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: In 2026, China's fiscal policy aims to balance "stable growth" and "structural transformation." If the fiscal space is fully released, a series of positive macroeconomic changes are expected. The total demand growth rate is expected to return to expansion [402][404]. - **Investment Direction**: In the equity market, attention should be paid to computing power, AI applications, AI power, cutting - edge technologies proposed in the 14th Five - Year Plan, pro - cyclical sectors, and domestic demand expansion and consumption recovery. In the fixed - income market, the interest rate center may rise, and the trading rhythm should be grasped [9]. - **Fund Selection**: The report selects several types of funds, including all - market investment equity funds, equity funds under different investment themes, fixed - income funds, and index - enhanced funds [10][11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, all major indices in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose. The CSI 500 and ChiNext 50 led the gains, both rising by over 12%, while the SSE 50 had the smallest increase of 1.17%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 26 industries rose, with the top 5 gainers being non - ferrous metals, media, petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, and chemicals. The declining industries were banking, household appliances, non - bank finance, transportation, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery [1][14]. - In December 2025, the total number of new individual investor accounts in the market reached 2.5861 million, and the number of new institutional investor accounts was 11,100. The private securities investment fund market continued to heat up, with the newly registered scale in December increasing month - on - month to 54.174 billion yuan, and the existing scale reaching 22.15 trillion yuan [2][21][23]. - In January, 88 new funds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 91.481 billion yuan. The issuance shares of active equity funds and passive equity funds were 41.704 billion and 19.62 billion respectively, and the issuance shares of active equity funds increased significantly month - on - month. All types of funds rose to varying degrees, with commodity - type funds having the largest average increase of 17.92% [3][38]. - In January, the active equity funds increased their positions in the petroleum and petrochemical, non - ferrous metals, and basic chemical industries, and reduced their positions in the national defense and military industry, pharmaceutical biology, and computer industries. The overall position of active equity funds on January 30, 2025, was 73.88%, an increase of 0.78 percentage points from the previous month [4][54][58]. - In January, the ETF market had a net capital outflow of 841.187 billion yuan. Many ETFs related to the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices in the broad - based index suffered significant capital outflows. Among the actively traded individual securities, gold stock ETFs, China - South Korea semiconductor ETFs, mining ETFs, industrial non - ferrous metal ETFs, and ChiNext chip design ETFs led the gains, rising by 22.5% - 39.6%, while bank ETFs, E Fund's Hong Kong Stock Connect medical ETF, automobile ETFs, Peng Hua's general aviation ETF, and Huaxia's financial real - estate ETF led the losses, falling by 4.8% - 6.4% [5][61][62]. - In January, the risk - parity model rose by 2.07%, and the risk - budget model rose by 2.39% [6][73]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Market Situation - In January, all major stock indices in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose. The CSI 500 and ChiNext 50 led the gains, both rising by over 12%, and the SSE 50 had the smallest increase of 1.17%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 26 industries rose, and 5 industries fell. In the bond market, the ChinaBond Composite Total Return Index rose by 0.22%, and the ChinaBond Treasury, financial bond, and credit bond total return indices fluctuated between a decline of 0.09% and an increase of 0.24%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 5.82%. In the commodity market, the Nanhua Commodity Index rose by 8.61% [1][14]. - In December 2025, the total number of new individual investor accounts in the market reached 2.5861 million, and the number of new institutional investor accounts was 11,100. The private securities investment fund market continued to heat up, with the newly registered scale in December increasing month - on - month to 54.174 billion yuan, and the existing scale reaching 22.15 trillion yuan [2][21][23]. 3.2 European, American, and Asia - Pacific Market Situation - In January, most major indices in the European, American, and Asia - Pacific markets rose. In the US stock market, the S&P 500 rose by 0.29%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.76%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.95%. In the European market, the French CAC40 fell by 0.28%, and the German DAX rose by 0.20%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 6.85%, and the Nikkei 225 rose by 5.93% [26]. 3.3 Market Valuation Situation - In January, the valuations of all major market indices rose. In terms of the historical quantile of price - to - earnings ratio, the CSI All - Share Index led the increase, rising by 8.5 percentage points. In terms of the historical quantile of price - to - book ratio, the CSI 1000 led the increase, rising by 15.3 percentage points. Among the industries, the top five industries with the highest historical quantile of price - to - earnings ratio of the Shenwan primary index last month were real estate, electronics, chemicals, commercial trade, and comprehensive. The price - to - earnings ratio quantile of the real estate industry was at a high level, and that of the electronics industry reached 96.2%. The bottom five industries with the lowest historical quantile of price - to - earnings ratio were non - bank finance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, food and beverages, beauty care, and pharmaceutical biology. The valuation of the non - bank finance industry was close to its historical low since 2013 [31]. 3.4 Overall Situation of Public - Offering Funds 3.4.1 Fund Issuance Situation - In January, 88 new funds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 91.481 billion yuan. Among them, 36 stock - type funds were issued with a scale of 19.669 billion yuan; 36 hybrid funds were issued with a scale of 46.646 billion yuan; 4 bond - type funds were issued with a scale of 49.46 billion yuan; 10 FOF funds were issued with a scale of 18.713 billion yuan; and 2 QDII funds were issued with a scale of 15.07 billion yuan. The issuance shares of active equity funds and passive equity funds were 41.704 billion and 19.62 billion respectively, and the issuance shares of active equity funds increased significantly month - on - month [38]. 3.4.2 Fund Market Return Situation - In January, the equity market performed outstandingly, and all types of funds rose to varying degrees. Commodity - type funds had the largest average increase of 17.92%. From the perspective of fund style indices, in January, the market showed a general upward trend, and the market performance of different - style funds was differentiated. The growth style outperformed the value style, and the small - and medium - cap style outperformed the large - cap style. Overall, the mid - cap balanced style had the largest increase of 8.99%, and the large - cap value style had the smallest increase of about 4.22%. Among different - scale equity - biased public - offering funds, the mini - funds with a scale of 50 million - 100 million had the largest average increase of 7.27% and a positive return ratio of 95.25%, while the super - large funds with a scale of over 10 billion had the smallest average increase of 4.79% and a positive return ratio of 87.10% [3][42][51]. 3.4.3 Active Equity Fund Position Situation - In January, active equity funds increased their positions in the petroleum and petrochemical, non - ferrous metals, and basic chemical industries, and reduced their positions in the national defense and military industry, pharmaceutical biology, and computer industries. The overall position of active equity funds on January 30, 2025, was 73.88%, an increase of 0.78 percentage points from the previous month [4][54][58]. 3.5 ETF Fund Situation - In January, the ETF market had a net capital outflow of 841.187 billion yuan. Among them, stock - type ETFs had a net outflow of 793.799 billion yuan, cross - border ETFs had a net inflow of 30.917 billion yuan, and bond - type ETFs had a net outflow of 106.172 billion yuan. In terms of liquidity, the average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market in this period reached 604.575 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume reached 226.327 billion shares, and the average daily turnover rate was 9.17%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points from December of the previous year. Many ETFs related to the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices in the broad - based index suffered significant capital outflows. Among the actively traded individual securities, gold stock ETFs, China - South Korea semiconductor ETFs, mining ETFs, industrial non - ferrous metal ETFs, and ChiNext chip design ETFs led the gains, rising by 22.5% - 39.6%, while bank ETFs, E Fund's Hong Kong Stock Connect medical ETF, automobile ETFs, Peng Hua's general aviation ETF, and Huaxia's financial real - estate ETF led the losses, falling by 4.8% - 6.4%. The ETFs with the largest net capital inflows were non - ferrous metal ETFs, gold ETFs, chemical ETFs, power grid equipment ETFs, and semiconductor equipment ETFs, while the ETFs with the largest net capital outflows were Huatai - Peregrine CSI 300 ETF, E Fund CSI 300 ETF, Huaxia CSI 300 ETF, SSE 50 ETF, and Harvest CSI 300 ETF [5][61][62]. 3.6 Model Operation Situation - Four types of large - scale asset allocation models were constructed using stocks, bonds, commodities, and QDII. In January, the risk - parity model rose by 2.07%, and the risk - budget model rose by 2.39%. Since 2015, the annualized return of the risk - parity model has been 4.94%, with a maximum drawdown of 2.31%, and the annualized return of the risk - budget model has been 5.13%, with a maximum drawdown of 9.80%. Next month, the asset allocation weights of the models remain unchanged. For the risk - parity model, stocks: bonds: commodities: QDII = 6%: 69%: 12%: 13%; for the risk - budget model, stocks: bonds: commodities: QDII = 14%: 49%: 8%: 29% [68][73][74].

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong demand for actively managed equity funds, with 38 products receiving over 500 million shares in net subscriptions, and the highest net subscription exceeding 6 billion shares [2][4]. Fund Subscription and Redemption Overview - As of the end of 2025, the total scale of funds reached 31.62 trillion shares, with a net subscription of 706.79 billion shares in the fourth quarter, reflecting a net subscription ratio of 2.29% [9]. - Various fund types, including money market, index, QDII, bond, commodity, and FOF, experienced net subscriptions, while mixed funds faced the highest net redemptions, shrinking by 82.30 billion shares [2][9]. - Despite the overall net redemptions in actively managed stock and mixed funds, several actively managed equity funds attracted significant investor interest [4]. Performance of Actively Managed Equity Funds - In the fourth quarter, 38 actively managed equity funds had net subscriptions exceeding 500 million shares, a decrease from the previous quarter, with 9 funds surpassing 1 billion shares [4]. - The top-performing fund, managed by Zhang Haiqiao, the Yongying Pioneer Semiconductor Select Mixed Fund C, attracted 6.20 billion shares in net subscriptions, with a net subscription ratio of 2126.19% [4]. - Other notable funds include the Yongying High-end Equipment Select Mixed Fund C, which received 5.22 billion shares in net subscriptions, and the Anxin Rui Jian Preferred Mixed Fund A, with 2.54 billion shares in net subscriptions [4][5]. Market Trends and Fund Types - The fourth quarter saw a strong performance in the A-share market, particularly in sectors like technology, commercial aerospace, storage chips, AI computing hardware, communication, and military industry [9]. - The bond market exhibited a "rise then fall" trend, with bond funds achieving a net subscription of 82.43 billion shares [10]. - Commodity funds experienced the highest net subscription ratio at 33.8%, with a total of 23.84 billion shares in net subscriptions, driven by rising prices of precious metals [10].

Core Viewpoint - The public fund market in China is experiencing rapid growth in net asset value, driven by domestic economic recovery, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and increased issuance of new funds, particularly FOF funds, despite a slowdown in stock fund performance [1][2][3]. Group 1: Overall Characteristics of the Public Fund Market - The public fund market shows a rapid year-on-year growth in net asset value, with a total scale reaching 316,492.31 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 5.03% [3]. - The net asset value of funds reached 371,462.44 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.14% [3]. - The structure of newly issued funds indicates a stable proportion of stock funds, while bond funds have seen a year-end rebound, and FOF funds have experienced significant growth [2][3]. Group 2: New Fund Issuance - In Q4, 2,798.74 billion yuan of new public funds were established, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.35% [7]. - The monthly establishment scale increased from 742.86 billion yuan in October to 1,109.21 billion yuan in December [7]. - The market's performance has been mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising by 2.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and CSI 300 experienced slight declines [7]. Group 3: FOF Fund Growth - The issuance scale of FOF funds surged, with their proportion rising from 0.98% in September to 23.92% in October, and maintaining 17.95% and 9.70% in November and December, respectively [11]. - FOF funds have become a highlight due to their cross-asset allocation capabilities amid market fluctuations [11]. Group 4: Performance of Various Fund Types - Stock fund performance has slowed, with only 38.63% of ordinary stock funds achieving positive returns in the last three months [13]. - Passive index funds showed significant style differentiation, with 46.94% achieving positive returns, driven by sectors like industrial metals and insurance [16]. - Bond funds have shown recovery, with 97.30% of medium- to long-term pure bond funds achieving positive returns [19]. Group 5: Commodity Fund Performance - Among commodity funds, 96.36% achieved positive returns, with the highest being the Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures A, yielding 62.43% [22]. - The demand for strategic resources has increased, highlighting the financial attributes of metals like copper and tin [22]. Group 6: Future Outlook for the Public Fund Market - The economic strategy for 2026 emphasizes "stability while seeking progress" and aims to implement more proactive macro policies to expand domestic demand [23]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and asset purchasing program are expected to improve liquidity conditions, benefiting global markets and commodities priced in dollars [23]. - Investment strategies should remain moderately aggressive, increasing equity asset allocation, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors [23].

Core Insights - In Q4 2025, public funds experienced a loss of 110.1 billion yuan, despite an overall annual profit exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan, indicating a strong performance in equity assets throughout the year [1][2] - Passive investment strategies, particularly large-scale ETFs, dominated the profitability rankings, reflecting significant changes in the capital market over the past year [1][2] - The bond products emerged as the main profit contributors in Q4, with bond funds earning 57.725 billion yuan, while commodity funds also saw substantial gains due to rising precious metal prices [1] Annual Performance Summary - For the entire year of 2025, public funds achieved a total profit of 2.6 trillion yuan, with all fund types reporting gains, particularly mixed and equity funds, which collectively earned nearly 2 trillion yuan [2] - The stock funds alone generated profits exceeding 1.1 trillion yuan, highlighting the strong rise of ETFs in the market [2] Top Performing Funds - In Q4, the top 10 profitable fund products were predominantly gold ETFs and related funds, with six gold ETFs making the list, showcasing the demand for precious metals [2] - The leading fund, Huaan Gold ETF, reported a profit of 8.218 billion yuan, the only product exceeding 8 billion yuan in profit [2] - Other notable funds included Bosera Gold ETF, Huaxia SSE 50 ETF, and E Fund Gold ETF, each earning over 3 billion yuan [2] ETF Performance - The performance of broad-based ETFs remained strong, with Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF leading with a profit of 78.516 billion yuan, the only fund surpassing 70 billion yuan [3] - Other significant performers included E Fund CSI 300 ETF and Huaxia CSI 300 ETF, both earning over 40 billion yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide a specific industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Future investment strategy suggests balanced style allocation, emphasizing technology, non - banking, and consumption sectors. For stock funds, A - share market may have a spring "good start" with policy expectations, liquidity, and fundamentals improving. For bond funds, short - term negative factors are repaired, but mid - term structural optimization is incomplete. Money funds have no trend investment opportunities in the long - term low - interest environment [3][4]. - Last week, the A - share market continued its upward trend and had a good start, with satellite, AI application, and non - ferrous sectors performing well. The bond market declined, the US stock market reached a new high, and oil and gold prices rose due to geopolitical risks. Funds heavily invested in medical, semiconductor, and military sectors performed well [4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review - **A - share Market**: Continued the upward trend and had a good start during 20260105 - 20260111. Satellite, AI application, and non - ferrous sectors were strong. The satellite sector's popularity and IPO benefits drove the military sector; AI company listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange boosted the AI application sector; the US military action in Venezuela affected non - ferrous metal supply and pushed up the sector. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.82% to 4120.43, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.40% to 14120.15. The trading volume was 14.13 trillion yuan, with a daily average increase of about 1.56 trillion yuan compared to the previous week. Among industries, defense, media, non - ferrous, computer, and medical sectors led the increase [4][6][7]. - **Bond Market**: Declined as the strong A - share market suppressed it. The 1 - year Treasury yield dropped 5BP to 1.29%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 3BP to 1.88%. Credit spreads narrowed. The ChinaBond Aggregate Net Price Index fell 0.24%, while the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 4.45% [4][8]. - **Overseas Market**: The US stock market reached a new high, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 2.32%, the S&P 500 rising 1.57%, and the Nasdaq rising 1.88%. European and most Asian markets also rose, except for the Hang Seng Index which fell 0.41%. The US dollar index rose 0.69%. Geopolitical risks from the US military action in Venezuela increased oil and gold prices [4][9]. 2. Last Week's Fund Market Review - **Stock Funds**: Rose 4.92%. Some funds heavily invested in medical, semiconductor, and military sectors performed well. Index funds related to satellite, semiconductor, and media themes did well [4][10][11]. - **Bond Funds**: Rose 0.29%. Partial - debt funds and convertible bond funds with semiconductor and computer in their equity allocation performed well. Among pure - debt funds, those mainly investing in high - grade credit bonds and medium - short - term bonds did better [4][10][11]. - **QDII Funds**: Equity QDII funds rose 2.62%, with funds mainly investing in medicine and semiconductor themes performing well. QDII bond funds rose 0.10% [4][10][12]. - **Money Funds**: Had an annualized yield of 1.58%. Different types of摊余成本法债 funds had different yields [11]. - **Gold ETF and Linked Funds**: Rose 2.85%. Commodity funds rose 2.64% [13]. 3. Future Investment Strategy - **Stock Market**: Policy expectations, liquidity, and fundamentals are expected to improve, and the A - share market may have a spring "good start". Industries with good prospects are technology, non - banking, and consumption. It is recommended to have a balanced style allocation and focus on these sectors [4][14][15]. - **Bond Market**: Short - term negative factors are repaired, but mid - term structural optimization is incomplete. It is recommended to focus on interest - rate bonds with flexible durations and products that mainly invest in high - grade and highly liquid credit bonds [4][15]. - **Money Market**: There are no trend investment opportunities in the long - term low - interest environment [4][15]. - **Commodity Market**: It is advisable to appropriately allocate gold ETFs for long - term and hedging investments [15]. 4. Latest Fund Market Developments - **QDII Quota**: Under the background of promoting inclusive finance, QDII quotas should be more used in public - offering products. Fund companies need to adjust the proportion of QDII quotas used in public - offering and private - placement products, reducing the private - placement quota ratio to within 20% by the end of 2027 and completing at least half of the adjustment by the end of 2026 [17]. - **Fund Sales Fee Regulations**: The official version of the regulations relaxes the redemption fee constraints for bond funds and fine - tunes the subscription and purchase fees. Bond ETFs may become important tools for liquidity management and trading by wealth management institutions. Wealth management funds may gradually increase their allocation to equity funds, with broad - based index funds and low - volatility "fixed - income +" products being more popular [18]. - **Newly Issued Funds**: 11 new funds were established last week, including 3 low - position ordinary FOF funds, 2 strong - equity hybrid funds, 2 stock ETFs, etc. The average subscription days were about 12 days, and the average raised share was 7.45 billion, with a total of 81.91 billion shares [19]. - **Upcoming Fund Dividends**: 99 funds will conduct equity registration in the coming week. The most notable is the Chang Sheng Aerospace and Marine Equipment A, with a dividend of 2.764 yuan per 10 shares [20].

Core Insights - The active equity funds experienced a remarkable performance in 2025, with 94.91% of all funds generating positive returns, and 96.64% of active equity funds achieving positive returns over one year [3][4] - The emergence of "doubling funds" was a significant highlight, with 60 funds, including 51 active equity funds, achieving over 100% cumulative returns [4][5] - The strong performance of active equity funds is closely linked to the structural trends in the A-share market, particularly in technology sectors such as optical modules, PCB, cloud computing, and innovative pharmaceuticals [3][5] Fund Performance - Among active equity funds, Yongying Technology Smart Selection A led with a return of 223.14%, making it the only fund to achieve "doubling" status [5] - Other notable performers included AVIC Opportunity Navigator A with 156.48% and Hengyue Advantage Selection A with 141.96% [5] - A total of 3419 funds outperformed their benchmark returns, representing 78.26% of the active equity funds [3] Market Trends - The "doubling funds" phenomenon is characterized by a clear structural market trend, with most funds heavily invested in the "computing power" industry chain, particularly in optical modules [5][6] - The communication sector emerged as a significant winner among passive index "doubling funds," with several funds achieving returns exceeding 110% [6] New Entrants and Management - The emergence of new fund managers was notable, with the average management tenure of fund managers for the "doubling funds" being only 3.01 years, and 43.33% having less than two years of experience [7][8] - Despite the high returns associated with newer fund managers, experienced managers also delivered strong performances, indicating a diverse range of expertise contributing to the success of these funds [8] Fund Management Companies - E Fund emerged as the largest winner in 2025, managing nine "doubling funds," with E Fund Rui Xiang I achieving the highest return of 119.38% [10] - Smaller fund companies also contributed significantly to the "doubling funds," with several achieving impressive returns despite their lower rankings in total assets [11][12] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the technology sector will continue to be a clear investment focus in 2026, recommending strategies such as "core + satellite" and "barbell" approaches for portfolio diversification [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the three main scenarios of fund losses and provides guidance on whether to hold or sell under different circumstances, emphasizing the importance of understanding the root causes of losses and the long-term logic of industries [7][10][28]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The first scenario of fund losses occurs when the entire market is declining, which is referred to as systematic risk. This type of risk is unpredictable and unavoidable, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis when the market dropped by 60% [10][12][13]. - The market experiences cyclical changes, transitioning from prosperity to recession and back to prosperity, indicating that economic recovery and market confidence will eventually return [15][16]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Issues - The second scenario involves specific industries or themes experiencing downturns. For instance, the photovoltaic industry faced a downturn from 2021 to 2023 due to rapid capacity expansion, but demand remains, suggesting that holding onto investments may be wise if the long-term logic of the industry hasn't changed [18][22][25]. - Investors should assess whether the fundamental logic of the industry has shifted before deciding to sell [27]. Group 3: Fund Management Problems - The third scenario, which requires the most caution, is when the fund manager's management leads to losses. Key indicators include: 1. Long-term performance significantly underperforming peers, necessitating a review over a complete market cycle [30][31]. 2. A shift in investment style, where a fund manager deviates from their stated strategy, indicating a potential gamble rather than a sound investment approach [33]. 3. Departure of a key fund manager, which can lead to a decline in performance if the fund's success was heavily reliant on that individual [36]. Group 4: Risk Management Strategies - The article suggests that while temporary losses are normal, understanding their causes is crucial for effective management. It highlights the human tendency to react emotionally when losses exceed 20% [39]. - To mitigate risks during market downturns, diversifying across different asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and commodities can help reduce overall risk, as these assets often have low correlation [44][50]. - Although diversification may dilute potential gains during strong bull markets, it is presented as a suitable investment strategy for ordinary investors seeking to minimize volatility [52].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the pitfalls of having an excessive number of funds in an investment portfolio, likening it to running a supermarket, which can lead to false diversification and management difficulties [6][17]. Group 1: Reasons for Excessive Fund Holdings - Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) drives investors to buy into new concepts and themes, leading to an overwhelming number of funds [9]. - Misunderstanding the principle of diversification results in investors believing that holding more funds inherently reduces risk [11]. - Decision paralysis occurs when investors are overwhelmed by choices, leading them to buy multiple funds without a clear strategy [13]. Group 2: Problems with Excessive Fund Holdings - False Diversification: Holding many funds does not guarantee risk diversification, as many funds may share the same underlying assets [18]. - Management Overload: Monitoring numerous funds can be time-consuming and impractical, making it difficult to analyze performance and make informed decisions [22]. Group 3: Steps to Optimize Fund Holdings - Step 1: Define a portfolio structure based on individual risk tolerance and investment goals, including allocations to different types of funds [27][30][34]. - Step 2: Tag each fund according to its category to gain clarity on the portfolio composition [37]. - Step 3: Consolidate similar funds by evaluating them based on performance, drawdown history, fund size, fee structure, and manager experience [41][45][49]. Group 4: Tools and Recommendations - The article suggests using fund comparison tools available in various apps to facilitate the selection process and streamline decision-making [50]. - It introduces a three-part asset allocation tool that helps investors avoid common pitfalls by providing a structured framework for fund selection and management [65][66].