东财策略陈果团队也指出，留意外部扰动因素，耐心伺机布局，把握科技与周期双主线。下周即将到来的"超级数据周"，在经历 了10月数据缺失的盲飞期后，11月CPI和就业数据将成为验证宽松政策效果及通胀反弹风险的首份关键报告。综合看，美股短期 波动或仍将维持高位，对A股风险偏好可能带来扰动。 本周各家券商策略观点不一，跨年攻势已开始VS股指短期扰动多。 兴证策略张启尧团队称，本周，国内外两件大事——美联储议息会议、中央经济工作会议相继落地，明年国内外政策基调进一步 明确。其释放的"海外偏宽松，国内偏积极、偏呵护"的政策组合，奠定了有利于风险资产演绎的良好环境，跨年行情有望在寻找 共识的过程中逐步展开。 国泰海通方奕团队指出，在交易层面，保收益降仓位已步入尾声，岁末年初的再配置与机构资金回流有望改善市场流动性和活跃 成交，跨年攻势已开始。 中泰策略徐驰团队称，短期内，国内政策或缺乏超预期刺激，叠加年底市场资金的谨慎偏好，A股市场预计以震荡为主。 | | | 一周策略前瞻 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券商/分析师 | 结论 | 逻辑 | 关注板块 | | 兴证策略 张启尧 | 经济工作 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates a rebound in growth style driven by positive changes in liquidity and industrial catalysts, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and the lifting of restrictions on H200 chip exports to China [2][10] - The AI industry is in a phase of rapid evolution, with infrastructure scaling up and application scenarios being implemented, leading investors to believe that technology growth may remain a key theme in the current bull market [2][10] - The report suggests that the growth sector may still be in a high-level oscillation phase, with various factors such as the uncertainty of the Fed's rate cut schedule and adjustments in overseas tech stocks potentially limiting the rebound space for the tech sector [2][10] Group 2 - The report highlights that during the year-end transition period, growth stocks typically benefit from ample liquidity, and the current macroeconomic expectations are weak, which may create a favorable environment for growth stock rebounds [3][11] - It is assumed that the current phase is still early in the growth stock bull market, with expectations of a second wave of accelerated growth driven by incremental capital in the later stages of the bull market [3][14] - The report emphasizes that high-quality segments within the growth stocks may offer better allocation value, with specific attention to sectors like consumer electronics, gaming, and renewable energy [3][26] Group 3 - The report provides a historical performance analysis of major sectors during year-end transitions, indicating that growth stocks generally outperform other sectors [11][12] - It notes that the internal rotation and expansion of growth stocks are likely to continue, with significant changes in leading sectors and fund holdings compared to previous bull market phases [21][24] - The report suggests that the valuation of growth stocks is generally not low, and high-cost performance segments may present better investment opportunities moving forward [3][26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the cyclical nature of stock market trends, particularly the performance of value and growth stocks over different periods [2][3][4]. - From 2016 to 2017, there was a bull market for large-cap value stocks, with significant increases in indices related to real estate, value, and dividends, leading to value style fund managers achieving top returns in 2017 [2]. - In contrast, from 2019 to 2021, large-cap growth stocks dominated the market, with sectors like consumption, pharmaceuticals, and new energy driving the growth, while value styles remained relatively subdued during this period [3][4]. Group 2 - The article predicts that by 2025, small-cap and growth stocks will experience a resurgence, with indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 leading the market for the first time in a decade [5][6]. - The performance of growth styles is expected to be strong, while the sectors that led the market in 2020-2021, such as consumption, may remain relatively weak in 2025 [6]. - The article emphasizes the benefits of having a mix of undervalued and overvalued stocks, allowing for strategic investment opportunities such as "buy low, sell high" as different stocks reach their valuation peaks at different times [7].

Market Outlook - The initial bull market's consolidation period is likely to extend due to the complexity of U.S. tariffs, shifting the short-term outlook from optimistic to high-level fluctuations[2] - The current market fluctuation is seen as an extension of the volatility since October 8, 2024, with potential for a policy and capital-driven breakthrough later this year[2] - The tariff impact from April has disrupted the profit expectations for A-shares, necessitating time for digestion, which may limit future upward movements[2] Economic Analysis - The economic conditions during the consolidation phase may be weaker than the lowest points of previous bear markets, but the market is unlikely to revert to a bear state[3] - Historical precedents indicate that prolonged consolidation periods can occur due to new economic pressures, similar to the 2013 liquidity crisis and the early 2020 pandemic[3] - The likelihood of a one-year consolidation period has increased, with a return to a bull market rhythm expected later this year[3] Scenario Projections - **Pessimistic Scenario (Low Probability)**: A sudden, larger shock than the April tariff impact could lead the market back to the lows seen in April[3] - **Neutral Scenario (High Probability)**: Gradual economic impacts from tariffs will lead to 1-2 quarters of narrow fluctuations before a return to a bull market driven by policy and capital inflows[3] - **Optimistic Scenario (Low Probability)**: Successful U.S.-China negotiations leading to significant tariff reductions could prevent further market downturns[3] Risk Factors - Key risks include unexpected downturns in the real estate market, significant volatility in U.S. equities, and the potential failure of historical patterns to hold[3]

Core Viewpoint - The breakthrough of DeepSeek technology is reshaping the narrative logic of the technology industry, leading to a wave of asset revaluation in the Chinese capital market, particularly in the AI sector, which is accelerating its growth trajectory [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Following the emergence of DeepSeek and Yushu Technology, Chinese tech stocks have entered a significant valuation recovery phase, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 20.74% in Q1 2025, outperforming global markets [2] - In the A-share market, the Sci-Tech Innovation 100 index surged by 10.69% in Q1 2025, while the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index increased by 3.42%, driven by the "AI+" trend [2] Group 2: Valuation and Pricing - The asset revaluation process is still in its early stages, with A-share valuations considered relatively low; the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has a price-to-earnings ratio of only 12.3 times, significantly lower than major global indices [3] - The risk premium in the A-share market is currently 1.7 standard deviations above the long-term average, nearing historical extremes, indicating potential for valuation recovery [3] - Chinese AI development potential is not fully priced in, with leading tech companies' valuations significantly lower than their U.S. counterparts, particularly in the Hong Kong market where the Hang Seng Tech dynamic P/E ratio remains at historical lows [4] Group 3: AI Development - Domestic large models have narrowed the performance gap with international counterparts, with the release of DeepSeekR1 accelerating the progress of domestic models [5] - The demand for AI computing power is surging, with domestic AI chip shipments exceeding 820,000 units in 2024, capturing a 30% market share [6] - The application of AI is expanding rapidly across various sectors, with significant user engagement in consumer applications and increasing penetration in B2B scenarios [7] Group 4: Policy Support - National policies are driving the development of the AI industry, focusing on strategic planning, technological breakthroughs, and application scenarios, with local governments tailoring policies to enhance competitive advantages [8] - The A-share market's technology narrative is becoming clearer, with significant growth in sectors like biotechnology, renewable energy, and information technology, supported by favorable policies [9][11] Group 5: Future Outlook - The Chinese stock market is at a critical juncture, transitioning from narrative reinforcement to narrative realization, with potential for a growth stock bull market if technological advancements and industry resilience are sustained [1][11] - The A-share market's technology narrative is expected to evolve through three phases: narrative reinforcement, realization, and upgrade, with the current phase characterized by structural recovery and low valuation tech leaders [11]