Group 1 - The core focus of the Sichuan Provincial Economic Work Conference is to expand effective demand and enhance domestic consumption growth through policy optimization and innovative consumption models [1][2] - Emphasis on promoting service consumption in sectors such as healthcare, elderly care, and tourism, while planning significant infrastructure projects to solidify investment foundations [1][2] - The conference aims to foster technological and industrial innovation, enhancing the competitiveness of six key industries and developing emerging sectors to build a modern industrial system unique to Sichuan [2][3] Group 2 - The conference highlights the importance of deepening reforms and expanding openness to boost high-quality development, with a focus on improving the business environment and supporting private enterprises [2][3] - It stresses the need for coordinated development, enhancing urban systems, and promoting rural modernization to improve living conditions and prevent poverty [3][4] - The conference also addresses the necessity of safeguarding and improving people's livelihoods, with a focus on employment, public services, and ecological protection [4][5] Group 3 - Risk management in key sectors is emphasized, with strategies to stabilize the real estate market, manage debt risks, and ensure energy security [4][5] - The conference outlines a comprehensive approach to disaster prevention and safety production, aiming to mitigate risks from natural disasters and prevent major accidents [4][5]

Economic Overview - The Central Economic Work Conference was held from December 10 to 11 in Beijing, focusing on the current economic situation and key tasks for the new phase of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Industrial and Service Sector Performance - The industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 6.0% year-on-year [4] - The service production index rose by 5.6% year-on-year [4] - The production of automobiles and integrated circuits grew by 10.8% and 10.6% respectively [4] - The added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 9.2% year-on-year [4] - The smart consumer equipment manufacturing sector saw a 7.6% increase in added value [4] - Production of new energy vehicles and lithium-ion power batteries for automobiles surged by 26.5% and 42.2% respectively [4] Cross-Border E-commerce and Foreign Investment - By the third quarter of 2025, cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached approximately 2.06 trillion yuan, marking a 6.4% increase [6] - The removal of foreign investment restrictions in the manufacturing sector led to a 1.1% increase in imports by foreign-invested enterprises [6] - The number of foreign trade enterprises with import and export performance reached 700,000, an increase of 52,000 year-on-year [6] Real Estate Market Developments - In the first ten months of 2025, the sales area and sales amount of new commercial housing saw a year-on-year decline that narrowed by 9 and 11.3 percentage points respectively [8] - Policies aimed at controlling new supply and optimizing existing stock in the real estate sector continue to show positive effects [8] Government Financial Measures - A total of 2.78 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds have been issued [9] - Among these, 800 billion yuan is allocated to support local governments in debt reduction [10] Social Security and Welfare - The number of participants in the basic pension insurance system has exceeded 1.07 billion [13] - Over 450 million people are receiving basic living assistance [15] - More than 500,000 administrative villages have been connected to paved roads [16] - The waste collection and treatment ratio has reached over 90% [17]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Financial Office projects that China's economy is expected to grow by around 5% in 2025, reaching a total economic volume of approximately 140 trillion yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance - The overall economic operation is stable, with major economic indicators meeting expectations, and a projected annual growth rate of around 5%, keeping China among the leading major economies globally [1]. - Employment remains generally stable, with rapid growth in foreign trade and significant diversification in exports [1]. Group 2: Industrial Development - The construction of a modern industrial system is continuously advancing, with steady development of new productive forces and abundant technological innovation achievements [1]. - Research and application in artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and robotics are leading globally [1]. Group 3: Reform and Opening Up - New steps have been taken in reform and opening up, with the construction of a unified national market progressing deeply [1]. - Comprehensive rectification of "involution" competition has shown positive results, and the capital market remains active with orderly self-opening [1]. Group 4: Risk Management - Positive progress has been made in resolving key area risks, including orderly replacement of local government hidden debts and the completion of "guaranteeing housing delivery" tasks [1]. - Significant results have been achieved in the reform of small and medium financial institutions, maintaining a baseline to prevent systemic risks [1]. Group 5: Social Welfare - Strengthened social welfare measures include the implementation of childcare subsidies and one year of free preschool education, contributing to the continuous improvement of social security levels [2]. - The overall social situation remains stable, with economic and social development goals expected to be successfully achieved, aiding in the completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The active flow of factors and innovation is expected to continuously inject new momentum into development, with rapid growth in the flow of people, logistics, information, and capital [2]. - Investment and consumption growth rates are anticipated to recover next year, accelerating industrial transformation and upgrading, with a concentrated outbreak of technological and industrial innovation achievements [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that significant progress has been made in risk resolution in key areas throughout the year [1] Group 2 - Local government hidden debt has been orderly replaced, and the task of ensuring housing delivery has been fully completed [2] - The reform of important local financial institutions has shown clear results in risk mitigation, and the clearance of overdue payments to enterprises is being effectively advanced, maintaining the baseline of avoiding systemic risks [2]

Group 1 - The central political bureau meeting on December 8 emphasized the need to firmly guard against risks and actively and steadily resolve key area risks, continuing the approach outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - In the real estate sector, short-term policies include ensuring the delivery of homes and optimizing financial policies, while long-term policies focus on establishing a new development model to alleviate accumulated risks [1] - As of the end of September, loans for "white list" projects exceeded 7 trillion yuan, supporting nearly 20 million housing units, an increase from over 16 million units in early May [1] Group 2 - The "6+4+2" debt resolution strategy is progressing steadily, with the scale of debt resolution funds exceeding the initially set target of 2.8 trillion yuan, indicating that local government debt risks are gradually being controlled [2] - The focus of debt resolution efforts in the coming year will be on building a standardized mechanism, with stronger coordination among debt resolution tools [2] - Financial regulatory authorities are supporting local governments in resolving risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions through various methods, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of high-risk small banks since 2019 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a proactive macroeconomic policy in 2026, focusing on domestic demand and supply optimization to support economic recovery and growth [1][2][3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy will continue to be "more proactive and effective," maintaining a supportive stance through fiscal and monetary measures [2][3]. - Fiscal policy may see an increase in central government spending, with a potential budget deficit rate raised to 4.5% and continued issuance of special government bonds [2]. - Monetary policy will remain "appropriately loose," with structural tools supporting key sectors while overall monetary conditions remain stable [2][3]. Group 2: Domestic Demand and Supply - The meeting highlighted the need to "continuously expand domestic demand and optimize supply," indicating a strong focus on enhancing domestic market capabilities [5][6]. - Domestic demand has contributed an average of 93.1% to economic growth from 2013 to 2024, but challenges remain in aligning supply with demand [5]. - The government aims to create a sustainable mechanism for expanding domestic demand, addressing the mismatch between high-end supply and weak demand [5][6]. Group 3: Innovation and New Growth Drivers - The meeting called for "innovation-driven development" to foster new economic momentum, aligning with the goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan [7][8]. - Emphasis is placed on creating a collaborative innovation ecosystem that integrates government, market, and social resources to enhance technological advancements [7][8]. - Current challenges include insufficient investment in basic research and a disconnect between research outcomes and practical applications [8]. Group 4: Open Economy and International Cooperation - The importance of "expanding high-level opening up" and promoting win-win cooperation in various fields was underscored, particularly in response to complex global changes [9][10]. - China aims to diversify trade partnerships and enhance resilience in trade development, with significant projected imports and foreign direct investments from 2013 to 2024 [10]. - Future cooperation will focus on areas such as green trade and international industrial chain collaboration [10]. Group 5: Risk Management - The meeting stressed the need for proactive and prudent risk management in key areas, including real estate and local government debt [11][12]. - Measures have been implemented to address risks in the real estate sector, including optimizing financial policies and establishing a financing coordination mechanism [12]. - The focus will shift towards long-term management of local government debt, with an emphasis on preventing the accumulation of hidden debts [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need for a more proactive macroeconomic policy in 2026, focusing on domestic demand and optimizing supply to support economic recovery and growth [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy will continue to be "more proactive and effective," maintaining a supportive stance through fiscal and monetary measures [2]. - Fiscal policy may see an increase in central government spending, with a potential budget deficit rate raised to 4.5% and continued issuance of special government bonds [2]. - Monetary policy will remain "appropriately loose," with structural tools supporting key sectors while overall monetary conditions will depend on economic circumstances [2][3]. Group 2: Domestic Demand and Supply - The meeting highlights the importance of "domestic demand as the main driver" for economic growth, aiming to build a strong domestic market [4]. - From 2013 to 2024, domestic demand is expected to contribute an average of 93.1% to economic growth, although challenges remain in fully reversing the current insufficient domestic demand [5]. - The government aims to combine "expanding domestic demand" with "quality supply," focusing on enhancing consumer experience and long-term development [5]. Group 3: Innovation and New Growth Drivers - The meeting stresses "innovation-driven development" as a core strategy, transitioning from factor-driven to innovation-driven growth [7]. - There is a need for a collaborative innovation ecosystem that integrates government, market, and social forces to foster high-level technological innovation [7][8]. - Current structural shortcomings in innovation, such as insufficient investment in basic research and challenges in technology transfer, need to be addressed through targeted policies [8]. Group 4: Open Economy and International Cooperation - The importance of "high-level opening up" is reiterated, with a focus on creating win-win cooperation across multiple fields [9][10]. - From 2013 to 2024, China's cumulative imports and exports are projected to reach 31.4 trillion USD, with direct foreign investment totaling 1.9 trillion USD, highlighting the benefits of international cooperation [10]. - Future cooperation will extend to areas like green trade and international industrial chain collaboration, enhancing resilience against external pressures [11]. Group 5: Risk Management - The meeting emphasizes the need for proactive and prudent risk management in key areas, including real estate and local government debt [12][13]. - Policies will continue to evolve to address risks in the real estate sector, with measures to stabilize liquidity and manage long-term risks [13][14]. - The approach to local government debt will focus on building a long-term management mechanism while ensuring that new hidden debts are not created [14].